Salary Cap: 24-25 Salary Thread Crosbicles Volume MXVI: End of season wrap up

[xlm34]

Marner in and EK + Rakell out would still have this team in contention for a top 5 pick. They’d go from a one line team with terrible defense and goaltending to a one line team with terrible defense and goaltending.

If he for whatever reason wanted to come here, you take him. Just don’t behave like a contender if you do.

 

[HandshakeLine]

If you trade Bryan Rust, the first thing you're looking for is a new Bryan Rust.

"We must, we must, we must draft a Rust!"

Beverly Cleary, Are You There God? It's Me, Mike Sullivan

 

[Pancakes]

Chicago and San Jose are terrible, nobody's disputing that. This team, minus those three guys, is just as bad imo. I kind of expect SJ to jump up a few spots in the standings next season as Celebrini, Smith, Eklund and now Dickinson continue to improve. Especially if they can lure some guys in FA.

I don't know if I agree with that. San Jose won 14 less games than us. I don't think Rust, Rakell, and EK (compared to whatever their replacements would be) are worth 14 wins. I think you're underestimating how truly f-ing terrible San Jose and Chicago are.

That being said, you're right, maybe they have some improvement next year and maybe we trade some guys and regress. It could happen. I think it's equally likely that those teams continue to suck. Their rosters are very dire and it would take a lot of improvement for them to overtake us.

 

[SEALBound]

"We must, we must, we must draft a Rust!"

Beverly Cleary, Are You There God? It's Me, Mike Sullivan

A good off-season intellectual debate could be - who is more annoying? Mike Sullivan or Ramona Quimby?

I will say, I do like Dubas's drafting record but it's also difficult to say really how much that is Dubas and how much that is the scouts. He's been fairly good with first around pick. Second and later is...okay but some of the guys that have done well, have done well on other teams after being traded - Durzi, Grundstrom, Sandin, Verhaeghe, and Connor Brown just to name a few. That 2020 draft was ROUGH for them though.

My preference might be - use your 1sts in the draft, use your 3rds for trades, mix and match your 2nds.

 

[Empoleon8771]

I think people look too much into how recent teams have had success to suggest there is a trend for how to build a team. In the 2010s, the Penguins, Hawks, Capitals and Kings were at the top of the NHL, and all of those teams sucked for high draft picks and ended up top teams in large part due to those high picks. In the 2020s, that hasn't really been the case. That doesn't mean they don't have them (Vegas didn't but the others had a few), but the big reasons they are contenders aren't really about them tanking and earning those picks.

Florida is a really good example of this, they became a top contender due to trades and UFA signings more than anything. Florida only had 1 player they drafted under the age of 25 on their cup team last year, it was just Lundell. A huge majority of their roster was between 26 and 30, and most of the big name guys in that age range were acquired via trade, free agency or waivers.

And on the inverse side of that, the teams that have been tanking in the last decade really haven't had success due to it. San Jose, Chicago, Anaheim, Buffalo, Columbus, Coyotes/Utah and Detroit all seem like prime examples of teams stuck in perpetual rebuilds that are going nowhere. The only teams from the 2010s onward that have actually had success tanking for high picks have been Toronto and Edmonton, and those two just happened to strike gold at the exact right minute. I think it has become pretty clear that unless you get insanely lucky with the draft lotteries, tear down rebuilds do not work.

Basically, I think the team is making the correct decision to try to emulate the Capitals rebuild/retool rather than tear it down entirely. With Marner, I think it would make more sense if he was a UFA in 2027 rather than 2025, but I'd still go for it because getting Marner in 2025 is better than hoping you can get a Marner caliber player in 2027.

 

[eXile3]

Amateur scouting and drafting are one of the only things I'm pretty sold on re: Dubas. His track record over the course of his career is pretty good considering the picks he's had and I think he's done good work there so far, here. Though clearly it's a little premature to say for certain right now.

Pro scouting? Fair enough lol

But who has really drafted? Robertson and Knies? Knies who Burke has come and said they were ready to take him before Toronto grabbed him?

I’m just curious because everyone says this is his best asset.

 

[eXile3]

Better than JR at least, but that's like saying 0 is greater than -1.

Yeah but also JR traded all his picks so it’s hard to tell.

 

[BlindWillyMcHurt]

But who has really drafted? Robertson and Knies? Knies who Burke has come and said they were ready to take him before Toronto grabbed him?

I’m just curious because everyone says this is his best asset.

Honestly I'm mostly just trying to find something positive for a change.

I can't deliver the classic "shit sandwich" to this board without having SOME kind of decent news to stuff between the two turd slices, after all.

 

[Jag68Sid87]

Marner in and EK + Rakell out would still have this team in contention for a top 5 pick. They’d go from a one line team with terrible defense and goaltending to a one line team with terrible defense and goaltending.

If he for whatever reason wanted to come here, you take him. Just don’t behave like a contender if you do.

What does that even mean???

If Marner comes, do you mean do NOT promote Pickering, Koivunen and McGroarty? Do you mean add even more veteran players? Because I think it is fairly obvious at this point that the one thing that will make this team contend for the playoffs more than anything else is youth.

If Marner decides to come, and they scrap the youth movement for more Kevin Hayes/Danton Heinen/Matt Grz additions, then you can breathe easy. We are not making any playoffs that way.

But if Marner comes, and we promote Pickering, McGroarty and Koivunen (at least), and maybe Ponomarev and Blomqvist, and maybe Brunicke and/or the 2025 1st rounder gets nine games, etc. etc... then yeah, we absolutely have a shot.

It largely depends on whether we keep the core intact (and frankly, if we add Marner then why in the world would you subtract Rakell or Karlsson unless you are making a great deal?), the head space of the core (which I assume would be much much better if we landed someone like Marner) and the new coach's impact.

To me, the only veteran that makes sense to trade if we land Marner is Rust, mainly because they play the same position and Marner would assuredly play with Crosby in a post-Sullivan world. Rust could land us a D partner for Karlsson, or maybe even a goaltending upgrade. Things we need for sure.

Adding Marner and then continuing to subtract makes zero sense, unless you are trading to fill massive holes on the roster. And there are two massive holes on the roster.

 

[Factorial]

Preemptively deciding Brunicke shouldn’t make the team next year is the exact thing this team has been doing for years that needs to change going forward. If he performs to a level that suggests he’s NHL ready, he should be in the NHL. Maatta had a glorious rookie year when they decided to give him a chance rather than sending him back to juniors, there’s no reason that Brunicke shouldn’t be offered a similar opportunity if his play warrants it.

Or at least be given 10 games before coming to a final decision.

 

[Pancakes]

I think people look too much into how recent teams have had success to suggest there is a trend for how to build a team. In the 2010s, the Penguins, Hawks, Capitals and Kings were at the top of the NHL, and all of those teams sucked for high draft picks and ended up top teams in large part due to those high picks. In the 2020s, that hasn't really been the case. That doesn't mean they don't have them (Vegas didn't but the others had a few), but the big reasons they are contenders aren't really about them tanking and earning those picks.

Florida is a really good example of this, they became a top contender due to trades and UFA signings more than anything. Florida only had 1 player they drafted under the age of 25 on their cup team last year, it was just Lundell. A huge majority of their roster was between 26 and 30, and most of the big name guys in that age range were acquired via trade, free agency or waivers.

And on the inverse side of that, the teams that have been tanking in the last decade really haven't had success due to it. San Jose, Chicago, Anaheim, Buffalo, Columbus, Coyotes/Utah and Detroit all seem like prime examples of teams stuck in perpetual rebuilds that are going nowhere. The only teams from the 2010s onward that have actually had success tanking for high picks have been Toronto and Edmonton, and those two just happened to strike gold at the exact right minute. I think it has become pretty clear that unless you get insanely lucky with the draft lotteries, tear down rebuilds do not work.

Basically, I think the team is making the correct decision to try to emulate the Capitals rebuild/retool rather than tear it down entirely. With Marner, I think it would make more sense if he was a UFA in 2027 rather than 2025, but I'd still go for it because getting Marner in 2025 is better than hoping you can get a Marner caliber player in 2027.

Florida still has Barkov and Ekblad. And they turned Huberdeau into Tkachuk.

Like yes they built well with trades but they aren't getting Tkachuk without having Huberdeau to begin with. They aren't winning the cup without Barkov. Ekblad has been up and down but he's been a pretty good contributor overall for them.

I think Winnipeg is probably the best example of a team that has been built without relying on high picks. Maybe Washington and LA as well, but both of those teams are still getting elite contributions from high picks (Ovie with Caps, Kopitar/Byfield with LA) so even they had a bit of that help.

Maybe throw Carolina in that mix too. Svechnikov is a 2nd overall pick but he's not really the guy driving that team.

Ultimately I don't think there's one way to do it. I mean if you look around the league that's obvious. There's success stories who built without lottery picks and there's success stories who have. There's failures who tried to build with lottery picks and there's failures who tried to build without them.

That's partially why I chuckle when people were freaking out about our draft slot this year because who the f knows how it's all gonna pan out. Maybe by winning games down the stretch we've set us ourselves up to be the next Detroit and that sucks. Or maybe we're going to be the next Winnipeg or Carolina. Teams have done it in a variety of ways.

 

[Peat]

Florida still has Barkov and Ekblad. And they turned Huberdeau into Tkachuk.

Like yes they built well with trades but they aren't getting Tkachuk without having Huberdeau to begin with. They aren't winning the cup without Barkov. Ekblad has been up and down but he's been a pretty good contributor overall for them.

I think Winnipeg is probably the best example of a team that has been built without relying on high picks. Maybe Washington and LA as well, but both of those teams are still getting elite contributions from high picks (Ovie with Caps, Kopitar/Byfield with LA) so even they had a bit of that help.

Maybe throw Carolina in that mix too. Svechnikov is a 2nd overall pick but he's not really the guy driving that team.

Ultimately I don't think there's one way to do it. I mean if you look around the league that's obvious. There's success stories who built without lottery picks and there's success stories who have. There's failures who tried to build with lottery picks and there's failures who tried to build without them.

That's partially why I chuckle when people were freaking out about our draft slot this year because who the f knows how it's all gonna pan out. Maybe by winning games down the stretch we've set us ourselves up to be the next Detroit and that sucks. Or maybe we're going to be the next Winnipeg or Carolina. Teams have done it in a variety of ways.

St Louis. I think Pietrangelo was the only top 10 pick on that team. They'd benefited a little from prior trades of high picks but not a ton. And, more over, a probably extremely rare example of a cup champion that traded for their centre depth.

I do sometimes look at the Canes and their playoff ceiling and see an example of why the high picks matter because they can't quite get over the hump and the lack of high end talent feels part of it.

 

[SomeDude]

St Louis. I think Pietrangelo was the only top 10 pick on that team. They'd benefited a little from prior trades of high picks but not a ton. And, more over, a probably extremely rare example of a cup champion that traded for their centre depth.

I do sometimes look at the Canes and their playoff ceiling and see an example of why the high picks matter because they can't quite get over the hump and the lack of high end talent feels part of it.

Again, Buffalo gifted them Conn Smythe Winner ROR like they did Vegas with Eichel.

Buffalo is all about building Cup winners. Just not themselves.

 

[BlindWillyMcHurt]

I think a lot of Carolina's skill limitations are self-imposed and not necessarily due to a lack of ability on the players' part. But I also think Rod is massively overrated so...

 

[SomeDude]

I think a lot of Carolina's skill limitations are self-imposed and not necessarily due to a lack of ability on the players' part. But I also think Rod is massively overrated so...

I feel like his system is just yelling "DO YOU EVEN LIFT BRO???" at his players until they score to shut him up.

 

[Pancakes]

I think a lot of Carolina's skill limitations are self-imposed and not necessarily due to a lack of ability on the players' part. But I also think Rod is massively overrated so...

Yeah I'm not a huge fan of Carolina's playstyle. They try to just grind teams into paste and chuck every puck at the net from bad angles and hope for tips. When it works it's great but I think Carolina sometimes struggles to score because of it.

 

[BlindWillyMcHurt]

I feel like his system is just yelling "DO YOU EVEN LIFT BRO???" at his players until they score to shut him up.

I mean we laugh but I feel like this is about on the same level of thinking that most NHL head coaches exhibit so...

 

[BlindWillyMcHurt]

Yeah I'm not a huge fan of Carolina's playstyle. They try to just grind teams into paste and chuck every puck at the net from bad angles and hope for tips. When it works it's great but I think Carolina sometimes struggles to score because of it.

Boy reminds me of SOMETHING eh?

 

[Pancakes]

Boy reminds me of SOMETHING eh?

Sorta. I actually feel like the Pens tried to be more selective under Sully and try to generate shots from the middle of the ice a lot.

But otherwise definitely a lot of similarities there between the relentless forecheck and attempting to stifle teams that way. Pens of course only maintained that for a few years before the league caught up whereas Carolina has been able to sustain that longer thanks to having a generally younger team and an even more psychotic emphasis on sticking to that

 

[eXile3]

Honestly I'm mostly just trying to find something positive for a change.

I can't deliver the classic "shit sandwich" to this board without having SOME kind of decent news to stuff between the two turd slices, after all.

Yeah I’m just of the camp that no team can pick prospects better than any other and it’s more about luck and aggregating picks. That’s why I was asking. Hoping someone can convince me otherwise.

 

[BlindWillyMcHurt]

Sorta. I actually feel like the Pens tried to be more selective under Sully and try to generate shots from the middle of the ice a lot.

But otherwise definitely a lot of similarities there between the relentless forecheck and attempting to stifle teams that way. Pens of course only maintained that for a few years before the league caught up whereas Carolina has been able to sustain that longer thanks to having a generally younger team and an even more psychotic emphasis on sticking to that

Really?

I guess I get confused about this and wonder what I was watching.

The Penguins to my eyes spend like 75% of the game glued to the walls. Usually ALSO facing them for that matter.

The media etc. have been calling the Penguins a "skill and speed" team forever but they have been much closer to a "grind those bitches down" team since 2017. Many nights I feel like they'd do just as well offensively if they flipped their sticks around.

 

[Pancakes]

Yeah I’m just of the camp that no team can pick prospects better than any other and it’s more about luck and aggregating picks. That’s why I was asking. Hoping someone can convince me otherwise.

This is how I feel about interviewing for jobs. Every organization is convinced their process works and gets them good employees but the truth is nobody has any f-ing idea what they're gonna get when they interview someone. I've seen people who are not great interviewees who kick ass and I've seen people who look well put together who end up being shite employees.

There's no way to know but people love to fool themselves into thinking they know.

 

[Pancakes]

Really?

I guess I get confused about this and wonder what I was watching.

The Penguins to my eyes spend like 75% of the game glued to the walls. Usually ALSO facing them for that matter.

The media etc. have been calling the Penguins a "skill and speed" team forever but they have been much closer to a "grind those bitches down" team since 2017. Many nights I feel like they'd do just as well offensively if they flipped their sticks around.

I think that's more due to personnel in recent years than a Sully preference. I mean if you sign Noel Acciari he's not getting to the middle of the ice very often lol. Granted Sully was likely partially responsible for such signings but that was always one of the complaints about Sully, right? He wanted guys who didn't even necessarily fit the way he said he wanted the team to play lol.

Whatever the case I just hope our next coach brings in a more entertaining style. We're gonna stink regardless, might as well be entertaining to watch.

 

[eXile3]

This is how I feel about interviewing for jobs. Every organization is convinced their process works and gets them good employees but the truth is nobody has any f-ing idea what they're gonna get when they interview someone. I've seen people who are not great interviewees who kick ass and I've seen people who look well put together who end up being shite employees.

There's no way to know but people love to fool themselves into thinking they know.

Can confirm. I’ve probably interviewed 100s of people, and with the exception of the obvious no’s, it’s a crapshoot.

 

[BlindWillyMcHurt]

I think that's more due to personnel in recent years than a Sully preference. I mean if you sign Noel Acciari he's not getting to the middle of the ice very often lol. Granted Sully was likely partially responsible for such signings but that was always one of the complaints about Sully, right? He wanted guys who didn't even necessarily fit the way he said he wanted the team to play lol.

Whatever the case I just hope our next coach brings in a more entertaining style. We're gonna stink regardless, might as well be entertaining to watch.

Right you said it yourself... this is what he wanted. Simple as that.