Salary Cap: 24-25 Salary Thread Crosbicles Volume MXVI: End of season wrap up

[BlindWillyMcHurt]

I mean that's just Erik Karlsson for the most part and kinda always has been. His contract is definitely kinda dumb but he gets paid mostly to be dynamic on ONE side of the puck and he largely was until he got here.

Perhaps this team should consider upgrading it's general ability to assess players as opposed to EK's defensive game? It's kinda like buying a Ferrari to do a tractor's work then bitterly complaining that it can't pull a f***ing plow.

 

[Gurglesons]

Oh also, funny fact. There are 4 players that are still with this franchise that have had a net positive goal differential since EK65 has come to the team. Bryan Rust isn't one of them, but we will anoit him the biggest try hard of all time and EK65 is "so bad the franchise was stunned."

 

[Peat]

I dunno what to do with Karlsson other than listen to the market and hope that makes the decision easy. I didn't watch enough and I'm not that hockey smart.

But I can tell you Karlsson's stats absolutely cratered without Pettersson. Letang's GF% and xGF% both get 10% worse for not having Pettersson around too.

If you want to keep Karlsson and make him look good, you have to replace Pettersson. And doing so or not probably has more of an impact on next year's defence than Karlsson himself. Lot easier said than done though.

 

[Ugene Magic]

My point is that it doesn't matter why Karlsson was brought here. What matters is what happens moving forward. No one is suggesting he'll be moved as a cap dump. He has value.

But his value is highest after July 1. He gets paid a bonus at that point, after which he's owed very little actual salary for the remainder of his contract. The cap hit doesn't change, but teams absolutely pay attention to what a player is actually owed in real dollars. There is also a larger market of teams at this stage than there were at the deadline, simply because of the higher cap.

How does paying his bonus and eating 50% make it worth it to the Pens. That's an overpayment kind of process ask.

I've already shown what the Canes paid for Burns, it's no different in this case, the cheapskates they are.

They won't be getting a Guentzel type of return. No 1st and no top prospect, some beat as roster player (Ghost) a 2nd or 3rd and some C-level prospect sounds so enticing for Karlsson at 50%

Karlsson was definitely horrendous for the first 2 or so months of the season, but saying it's "much of the season" is pretty ridiculous from Yohe. That said, seeing him immediately dominate with Sweden and be underwhelming with the Penguins around it should definitely make the organization pretty unhappy with Karlsson.

Going to play with your nations best to coming back to one of the NHLs bottom 10 worst teams.

Whose expectations are off?

 

[Empoleon8771]

I dunno what to do with Karlsson other than listen to the market and hope that makes the decision easy. I didn't watch enough and I'm not that hockey smart.

But I can tell you Karlsson's stats absolutely cratered without Pettersson. Letang's GF% and xGF% both get 10% worse for not having Pettersson around too.

If you want to keep Karlsson and make him look good, you have to replace Pettersson. And doing so or not probably has more of an impact on next year's defence than Karlsson himself. Lot easier said than done though.

And ultimately I think that's the reason why they shouldn't keep him. Yes, Karlsson can be an extremely effective player if you play him in a specific role with a strong DFD partner. The Penguins simply cannot do that, so Karlsson is going to cause major problems due to his flaws.

Going to play with your nations best to coming back to one of the NHLs bottom 10 worst teams.

Whose expectations are off?

If Karlsson can't motivate himself to perform in the regular season with the Penguins, it's even more of a reason to get rid of him.

 

[Gurglesons]

I dunno what to do with Karlsson other than listen to the market and hope that makes the decision easy. I didn't watch enough and I'm not that hockey smart.

But I can tell you Karlsson's stats absolutely cratered without Pettersson. Letang's GF% and xGF% both get 10% worse for not having Pettersson around too.

If you want to keep Karlsson and make him look good, you have to replace Pettersson. And doing so or not probably has more of an impact on next year's defence than Karlsson himself. Lot easier said than done though.

I mean let's be honest, if he wasn't playing with Pettersson he's like spending the majority of those minutes with Graves or Gryz. Not sure I think the WYWO tells us much.

The XG numbers may look bad without Gryz, but he was sporting a 55.88 GF% in the 700 minutes with him.

Basically 2000ish of his 3136 minutes here were him as a positive player on the ice. And 434 of the minutes where he was a negative were with Ryan Graves.

 

[Turin]

Literally all you have to do is watch Karlssons 100 pt season highlights vs whatever he’s been doing here to know that despite being overall a good player for the Pens he is not overly motivated to create and be a difference maker unlike in 2023.

At first you could say it’s Sullivan but they brought in his coach from that year, it’s obviously an issue of him choosing to play this way. It’s also EK - I don’t think coaches can tell him to do much either way.

 

[BlindWillyMcHurt]

Do we not think that players who play a rather shall we say... loose... style of game aren't given ultimatums by the coach? Haven't they even said as much?

Don't go after a player like EK if you feel like you have to rehab his game in his flippin' 30s. Like... WTF are we doing, here? That's not on Karlsson.

I want more effort from a LOT of people on this team. And certainly not just the players. I'm not sure why we are dunking on like one or two guys, here.

 

[Gurglesons]

Also @Peat, Crosby GF% went from 54.9% to 46.1% without EK65 on ice with him at 5v5.

 

[DesertedPenguin]

How does paying his bonus and eating 50% make it worth it to the Pens. That's an overpayment kind of process ask.

They get a better return in a trade.

I've already shown what the Canes paid for Burns, it's no different in this case, the cheapskates they are.

They won't be getting a Guentzel type of return. No 1st and no top prospect, some beat as roster player (Ghost) a 2nd or 3rd and some C-level prospect sounds so enticing for Karlsson at 50%

The Hurricanes aren't the only team in need of a RD with scoring pop.

Going to play with your nations best to coming back to one of the NHLs bottom 10 worst teams.

Whose expectations are off?

I don't think anyone is blaming Karlsson for anything.

It was a risk that didn't work out. If the Penguins were ready to be a contender, they'd find a way to make it work with Karlsson, likely by trading for a defense partner that lets him do what he does.

But they're not at that point, so instead they'll trade him for other assets.

 

[Empoleon8771]

Idk I expect a guy making $11.5 million a year to play defense at a NHL level

Yes, Karlsson has always been this. Yes, the Penguins deserve criticism for not surrounding Karlsson with a strong defensive presence around him. No, that doesn't mean Karlsson is free of criticism for being a literally 0th percentile defensive player and looking like literal diarrhea on the ice even at times while playing with Pettersson.

 

[BlindWillyMcHurt]

I mean for the record trade the guy I don't care lol... WTF are we keeping him around for? Don't piss and moan when the offense looks even worse, of course. But by all means ship him out.

I just find this "EK is a problem" narrative to be extremely dumb. That's Yohe level stuff.

 

[Gurglesons]

Literally all you have to do is watch Karlssons 100 pt season highlights vs whatever he’s been doing here to know that despite being overall a good player for the Pens he is not overly motivated to create and be a difference maker unlike in 2023.

At first you could say it’s Sullivan but they brought in his coach from that year, it’s obviously an issue of him choosing to play this way. It’s also EK - I don’t think coaches can tell him to do much either way.

Yeah, the Erik Karlsson we got is different and the one where he put up 64 5v5 points is the norm.

 

[Gurglesons]

Idk I expect a guy making $11.5 million a year to play defense at a NHL level

Yes, Karlsson has always been this. Yes, the Penguins deserve criticism for not surrounding Karlsson with a strong defensive presence around him. No, that doesn't mean Karlsson is free of criticism for being a literally 0th percentile defensive player and looking like literal diarrhea on the ice even at times while playing with Pettersson.

Why were we expecting Erik Karlsson to suddenly be something he has not been in literally 5 years?

 

[Peat]

I mean let's be honest, if he wasn't playing with Pettersson he's like spending the majority of those minutes with Graves or Gryz. Not sure I think the WYWO tells us much.

The XG numbers may look bad without Gryz, but he was sporting a 55.88 GF% in the 700 minutes with him.

Timmins was his third most common pairing after Gryz and Petts, but by a long distance. Pretty much kept away from Graves at all costs, although their 50 minutes together produced a somewhat aberrant looking 66% xGF.

But yeah, it's a fair point that there wasn't much to play with other than Pettersson... but all the more reason to replace him.

Also, yes, Karlsson was a huge boost for Sid... when Pettersson was there. 10% xGF boost. They went on a nice PDO heater with Gryz there but I wouldn't like to bet on it again.

The dude needs a good partner. Letang also needs a good partner. It'd make a huge difference to what the team gets out of them.

If Karlsson can't motivate himself to perform in the regular season with the Penguins, it's even more of a reason to get rid of him.

This x 1000. Maybe I don't blame anyone who struggles for motivation in the room, but I'd dump all of them on the curb asap.

 

[DesertedPenguin]

Idk I expect a guy making $11.5 million a year to play defense at a NHL level

Yes, Karlsson has always been this. Yes, the Penguins deserve criticism for not surrounding Karlsson with a strong defensive presence around him. No, that doesn't mean Karlsson is free of criticism for being a literally 0th percentile defensive player and looking like literal diarrhea on the ice even at times while playing with Pettersson.

Which is why it was simply a partnership that was worth trying but simply didn't work. No one is more at fault than anyone else.

FSG misread where the Penguins were at when they asked Dubas to give it one last go in his first year. Dubas misread what the Penguins needed, though I still like the trade for Karlsson as a whole. Sullivan's stubbornness likely frustrated Karlsson to some degree. Karlsson's stubbornness and refusal to play any way but his way likely bothered people, too, and it certainly led to some goals against.

It was worth a shot. Everyone can shake hands and part ways with no animosity.

 

[DesertPenguin]

Hague makes zero sense to me. He's 26, old for an RFA. He doesn't really solve any of our issues, and he's a 4/5 type.

I really really think it's Byram.

Two questions:
1. What could you offer them for Byram?
2. Does Byram actually solve our problems with, you know, defending?

I want meat and potatoes DFD or TWD types, not high end skill guys. They will help primarily keep the puck out of the net, and they won't cost what Byram would.

 

[DesertedPenguin]

I mean for the record trade the guy I don't care lol... WTF are we keeping him around for? Don't piss and moan when the offense looks even worse, of course. But by all means ship him out.

I just find this "EK is a problem" narrative to be extremely dumb. That's Yohe level stuff.

And I think that is largely just coming from Yohe. I don't get the sense that the Penguins believe Karlsson is the root of their issues.

I think fans and media watch Karlsson because he's a high profile player who makes elite plays and baffling mistakes. He's an easy target, just like a quarterback or starting pitcher. All eyes are on him, so everything is magnified. So fans get frustrated at times, and they bitch to media, who use that along with their own analysis to ask questions of the players, coaches, and GMs.

 

[Empoleon8771]

View attachment 1020083

Why were we expecting Erik Karlsson to suddenly be something he has not been in literally 5 years?

It really should not be an unreasonable ask that Karlsson can put up better than 0th percentile defensive metrics.

That's not asking him to completely reform as a player. That's asking him to do the bear minimum defensively. If he's not producing at a 100 point pace, he's not impacting the game enough offensively to negate out that 0th percentile defense.

I'm fine with him doing nothing defensively if the offense is outweighing the defense. This year, the offense simply did not outweigh the defense. Last year, they had Pettersson with him as a partner to mask his issues so his performance was completely fine.

 

[Gurglesons]

It really should not be an unreasonable ask that Karlsson can put up better than 0th percentile defensive metrics.

That's not asking him to completely reform as a player. That's asking him to do the bear minimum defensively. If he's not producing at a 100 point pace, he's not impacting the game enough offensively to negate out that 0th percentile defense.

The turncoat on players after celebrating their acquisition by Penguins fans and this board in general is honestly bizarre.

 

[Gurglesons]

Timmins was his third most common pairing after Gryz and Petts, but by a long distance. Pretty much kept away from Graves at all costs, although their 50 minutes together produced a somewhat aberrant looking 66% xGF.

But yeah, it's a fair point that there wasn't much to play with other than Pettersson... but all the more reason to replace him.

Also, yes, Karlsson was a huge boost for Sid... when Pettersson was there. 10% xGF boost. They went on a nice PDO heater with Gryz there but I wouldn't like to bet on it again.

The dude needs a good partner. Letang also needs a good partner. It'd make a huge difference to what the team gets out of them.

This x 1000. Maybe I don't blame anyone who struggles for motivation in the room, but I'd dump all of them on the curb asap.

So you're willing to take no return for EK65, just to get out of EK65?

 

[Empoleon8771]

The turncoat on players after celebrating their acquisition by Penguins fans and this board in general is honestly bizarre.

Breaking news: players who have massive stretches of shitty play and cost a lot of money get turned on by fans

 

[JackFr]

Two questions:
1. What could you offer them for Byram?
2. Does Byram actually solve our problems with, you know, defending?

I want meat and potatoes DFD or TWD types, not high end skill guys. They will help primarily keep the puck out of the net, and they won't cost what Byram would.

1. Either Rakell, or if Rakell has BUF on his NTC, some of their futures or assets you get back for Rakell. If we trade Rakell soon enough (e.g. at the draft) that gives the Sabres plenty of time to use those pieces to get better now.

2. No, absolutely not. But frankly, we don't have any high-end guys in our system on defence period. And we're unlikely to get any at this draft either. If we trade Karlsson and Letang isn't able to play 20+ minutes a night for 82 games next year, we have nobody who can take on those minutes. Byram is 23, can play a lot of minutes, and has way more upside than anyone in our system. It's easier to sign filler meat and potatoes DFD and TWD types than players with Byram's upside.

 

[Gurglesons]

Breaking news: players who have massive stretches of shitty play and cost a lot of money get turned on by fans

He's Erik Karlsson.

I honestly have no idea what people expected Erik Karlsson to do here if they are upset he is producing like a top 10 defenseman and is bad defensively.

 

[BlindWillyMcHurt]

And I think that is largely just coming from Yohe. I don't get the sense that the Penguins believe Karlsson is the root of their issues.

I think fans and media watch Karlsson because he's a high profile player who makes elite plays and baffling mistakes. He's an easy target, just like a quarterback or starting pitcher. All eyes are on him, so everything is magnified. So fans get frustrated at times, and they bitch to media, who use that along with their own analysis to ask questions of the players, coaches, and GMs.

I mean this isn't wrong but I take a much more cynical POV when it comes to the media clowns. They dunk on EK mostly as a means of misdirection from the fact that the franchise is a dumpster fire right now.

Access comes at a price and all that.