Salary Cap: 24-25 Salary Thread Crosbicles Volume MXVI: End of season wrap up

[JackFr]

There are two RFA I expect us to seriously compete for -- and honestly, most likely acquire.

One is Nick Robertson, who will probably come fairly cheap and who Dubas already has an affection for. I'd expect us to move one of our 2026 2nds for him.

The other bigger one is Bowen Byram. I think the writing's on the wall here. IMO he will probably be a Penguin next season.

1. It seems more likely than not that they'll move him. AFP Analytics project him at a 7 x $7.25M extension, and with Dahlin and Power already locked up at big numbers that seems like a tall order.
2. Dubas explicitly stated that he's planning on pursuing RFA that other teams can't fit in their cap structure and he said he's going to reshape the left side because our existing players there aren't ready to take on big minutes. Other than K'Andre Miller, Byram is the only player that fits both categories.
3. Dubas also at least implied that Erik Karlsson will probably be moved this summer. I would figure the top candidates will be CAR, LA, DAL, and maybe OTT. With Kris Letang's future uncertain, that leaves basically nobody to eat minutes on this blueline.
4. We've been connected to BUF's young players before.
5. Byram is 23 (right in the age range Dubas always talks about)
6. Buffalo happens to be a strong destination candidate for Rickard Rakell.
7. The Sabres organization has a lot of connections to the Penguins in terms of front office and analytics staff knowing eachother very well.
8. Byram has a strong pedigree, has produced and played big minutes in the past, and I bet the front office could rationalize him as our #1 D of the future.

That's why I think we're going to see a Rickard Rakell for Bowen Byram trade over the summer. Not sure what else would be involved. [EDIT: If Rakell won't waive for BUF, then use the assets you get for him or something else. But I still expect it to happen]

The next question - is he actually worth it?

Byram is a skilled player, there's no doubt about that. I'd rate him in the top 10% of defencemen in terms of speed, he's a good passer, and he's creative with the puck. He was probably Colorado's best defenceman in the series against Tampa. Issue with him other than his injury history is that pretty consistently across both the Avs and Sabres he's generally gotten outchanced or been carried by a better partner with poor results when separated (Dahlin).

Upside here? #1 defenceman if absolutely everything comes together. Downside? We end up with Mike Matheson 2.0 as our #1 defenceman for the next 7 years.

 

[CheckingLineCenter]

I think my POV just does not line up with the board's in general and I suppose that is fine.

I don't enjoy being a doormat and getting my ass kicked all over the place for the pleasure of some second round picks and watching players that are so terrible that their former teams literally pay to give them away is not my idea of fun or productive. At the very least I absolutely do not agree sitting here at season's end that it was this galaxy brained move everyone sold it as at the time. Just seems a bit flailing, now.

I'm not one of these "DUBAS SUX" guys but lets be honest... dude has been way less than inspiring so far even adjusting for challenge we all knew he'd have.

Yep just simply don’t agree then. It’s time to take some pain and rebuild. The main goal is hitting on your high picks.

But I’m very on board with converting the marginal players/roster spots into as as many scratch offs as possible in the time it takes to rebuild.

 

[CheckingLineCenter]

There are two RFA I expect us to seriously compete for -- and honestly, most likely acquire.

One is Nick Robertson, who will probably come fairly cheap and who Dubas already has an affection for. I'd expect us to move one of our 2026 2nds for him.

The other bigger one is Bowen Byram. I think the writing's on the wall here. IMO he will probably be a Penguin next season.

1. It seems more likely than not that they'll move him. AFP Analytics project him at a 7 x $7.25M extension, and with Dahlin and Power already locked up at big numbers that seems like a tall order.
2. Dubas explicitly stated that he's planning on pursuing RFA that other teams can't fit in their cap structure and he said he's going to reshape the left side because our existing players there aren't ready to take on big minutes. Other than K'Andre Miller, Byram is the only player that fits both categories.
3. Dubas also at least implied that Erik Karlsson will probably be moved this summer. I would figure the top candidates will be CAR, LA, DAL, and maybe OTT. With Kris Letang's future uncertain, that leaves basically nobody to eat minutes on this blueline.
4. We've been connected to BUF's young players before.
5. Byram is 23 (right in the age range Dubas always talks about)
6. Buffalo happens to be a strong destination candidate for Rickard Rakell.
7. The Sabres organization has a lot of connections to the Penguins in terms of front office and analytics staff knowing eachother very well.
8. Byram has a strong pedigree, has produced and played big minutes in the past, and I bet the front office could rationalize him as our #1 D of the future.

That's why I think we're going to see a Rickard Rakell for Bowen Byram trade over the summer. Not sure what else would be involved.

The next question - is he actually worth it?

View attachment 1019248

Byram is a skilled player, there's no doubt about that. I'd rate him in the top 10% of defencemen in terms of speed, he's a good passer, and he's creative with the puck. He was probably Colorado's best defenceman in the series against Tampa. Issue with him other than his injury history is that pretty consistently across both the Avs and Sabres he's generally gotten outchanced or been carried by a better partner with poor results when separated (Dahlin).

Upside here? #1 defenceman if absolutely everything comes together. Downside? We end up with Mike Matheson 2.0 as our #1 defenceman for the next 7 years.

Lot of words for me to shoot it down with 7: “Raks has an 8 team NTC list”

Hope you used Chat GPT

 

[DesertedPenguin]

There are two RFA I expect us to seriously compete for -- and honestly, most likely acquire.

One is Nick Robertson, who will probably come fairly cheap and who Dubas already has an affection for. I'd expect us to move one of our 2026 2nds for him.

The other bigger one is Bowen Byram. I think the writing's on the wall here. IMO he will probably be a Penguin next season.

1. It seems more likely than not that they'll move him. AFP Analytics project him at a 7 x $7.25M extension, and with Dahlin and Power already locked up at big numbers that seems like a tall order.
2. Dubas explicitly stated that he's planning on pursuing RFA that other teams can't fit in their cap structure and he said he's going to reshape the left side because our existing players there aren't ready to take on big minutes. Other than K'Andre Miller, Byram is the only player that fits both categories.
3. Dubas also at least implied that Erik Karlsson will probably be moved this summer. I would figure the top candidates will be CAR, LA, DAL, and maybe OTT. With Kris Letang's future uncertain, that leaves basically nobody to eat minutes on this blueline.
4. We've been connected to BUF's young players before.
5. Byram is 23 (right in the age range Dubas always talks about)
6. Buffalo happens to be a strong destination candidate for Rickard Rakell.
7. The Sabres organization has a lot of connections to the Penguins in terms of front office and analytics staff knowing eachother very well.
8. Byram has a strong pedigree, has produced and played big minutes in the past, and I bet the front office could rationalize him as our #1 D of the future.

That's why I think we're going to see a Rickard Rakell for Bowen Byram trade over the summer. Not sure what else would be involved.

The next question - is he actually worth it?

View attachment 1019248

Byram is a skilled player, there's no doubt about that. I'd rate him in the top 10% of defencemen in terms of speed, he's a good passer, and he's creative with the puck. He was probably Colorado's best defenceman in the series against Tampa. Issue with him other than his injury history is that pretty consistently across both the Avs and Sabres he's generally gotten outchanced or been carried by a better partner with poor results when separated (Dahlin).

Upside here? #1 defenceman if absolutely everything comes together. Downside? We end up with Mike Matheson 2.0 as our #1 defenceman for the next 7 years.

Good thoughts and breakdown, but Rakell has an 8-team no trade list. Isn't it logical to think Buffalo might be on it?

 

[JackFr]

Lot of words for me to shoot it down with 7: “Raks has an 8 team NTC list”

Hope you used Chat GPT

hey there are 7 canadian teams ya never know.

I still expect it to happen even if it's not Rakell FWIW.

 

[CheckingLineCenter]

hey there are 7 canadian teams ya never know.

I still expect it to happen even if it's not Rakell FWIW.

I think you’re dead on Byram is getting moved because he’s arb eligible

Don’t think it’s to Pittsburgh. I would bet a significant amount of cash Rakell has Buffalo on his NTC and I don’t think Rust gets it done. And do you really see this team moving a 1st? Or BUF even wanting one? Doesn’t feel like we have correct pieces.

Hope you’re right though. Could be a helluva player with time. Has the talent and pretty young.

 

[Empoleon8771]

Yeah Byram makes a boatload of sense for this team to go after, I just don’t know what they’d pay to get him. I’m sure as hell not moving a 1st for him unless that 1st is coming from a Rakell or Karlsson trade. They’re going to want NHL help and I’m not sure what the Penguins can really offer to get that done.

But on paper, yes sign me up for a Rakell for Byram type of deal. If you can get a young guy like Rosen as well, that’s just icing on the cake.

Also a firm no to trading a 2nd for Robertson. Don’t see why they’d do that when they got Tomasino for a 4th.

 

[Gurglesons]

Jfresh is evil.

 

[JackFr]

I think you’re dead on Byram is getting moved because he’s arb eligible

Don’t think it’s to Pittsburgh. I would bet a significant amount of cash Rakell has Buffalo on his NTC and I don’t think Rust gets it done. And do you really see this team moving a 1st? Or BUF even wanting one? Doesn’t feel like we have correct pieces.

Hope you’re right though. Could be a helluva player with time. Has the talent and pretty young.

I just don't see any of the other RFA LHD making any sense. Like, Hague and Kesselring are both mid 4/5 type guys. Neither is going to munch minutes.

With Byram, we can legit play him 24 minutes a night right away and is the only option this summer that could even potentially give us a #1 defenceman who isn't Letang in the next 4 years realistically.

If Rakell won't waive, we can move him somewhere else and use the return. I agree we won't move our own pick ofc. Would we move an 11th overall New York pick though?

 

[SEALBound]

I don't disagree, however they have no Studs on defense. And a top four defensemen especially the 2hd or 3rd best in this draft class might entice them. Also with McCann and Schwartz they have guys who can play both wing and center. Their blue line is fairly unremarkable.

Totally agree. I just think that both Smith and Mrtka add to that "unremarkable" definition whereas Eklund could give them a nice boost, especially if he gains chemistry with Beniers and/or Wright.

The next question - is he actually worth it?

I think it's a larger question than that. The real question is - is he worth at the price tag he will command?

Is he worth our 25/26 1st +? No.
Is he worth a collection of 2nds? Yes.
Is he worth Rakell + 2nd + 3rd? Yes.
McGroarty+Koivunen? No.

Byram certainly has question marks around him. So price plays a big role IMHO.

 

[Zirakzigil]

I think Karlsson at $5 million to Dallas for Bourque's RFA rights is a pretty reasonable suggestion for what they do with Karlsson.

Dallas GM came straight out and stated the Stars were not interested in that.

 

[CheckingLineCenter]

I just don't see any of the other RFA LHD making any sense. Like, Hague and Kesselring are both mid 4/5 type guys. Neither is going to munch minutes.

With Byram, we can legit play him 24 minutes a night right away and is the only option this summer that could even potentially give us a #1 defenceman who isn't Letang in the next 4 years realistically.

If Rakell won't waive, we can move him somewhere else and use the return. I agree we won't move our own pick ofc. Would we move an 11th overall New York pick though?

Buffalo has such little utility for bolded even if it’s fair value

I look at a guy like Byram… big, pedigree, strong, fast, flashed big potential on biggest stage. He will be valued around the league and he has no protection and almost everyone will have some sort of cap space.

Pens will not be a good dance partner.

 

[Gurglesons]

Dallas GM came straight out and stated the Stars were not interested in that.

Stars have no cap space.

 

[JackFr]

Buffalo has such little utility for bolded even if it’s fair value

I look at a guy like Byram… big, pedigree, strong, fast, flashed big potential on biggest stage. He will be valued around the league and he has no protection and almost everyone will have some sort of cap space.

Pens will not be a good dance partner.

We shall see...

 

[Empoleon8771]

Tbh I think Rust for Byram would both solve the NTC question with Rakell while Rust may be a more attractive player for Buffalo due to his leadership and all around play.

 

[SEALBound]

Dallas GM came straight out and stated the Stars were not interested in that.

If EK has ONE more year left, I think he would be. He commented that he had a ton of young guys to resign eventually - Harley, Robertson, Johnston hadn't resigned yet, and at the time - Stankoven.

One more year, he'd be out just as Robertson and Harley need new deals. With two, I don't see it.

 

[Gurglesons]

We shall see...

Imagine we live in a world where Dubas' three big contracts he's signed here are Byram at 7x7, Graves at 4.5 x 6, and Jarry at 5.25 x 5 and people still try to act like he's a smart GM.

 

[CheckingLineCenter]

We shall see...

I mean just looking at the wildcard race as who maybe would push to improve:

If just one of MTL, Utah, CGY, CBJ, STL decides to go after him we can’t make the best offer. And that’s only 5 teams.

I hope I’m wrong but I just don’t see a deal to be made.

 

[CheckingLineCenter]

Imagine we live in a world where Dubas' three big contracts he's signed here are Byram at 7x7, Graves at 4.5 x 6, and Jarry at 5.25 x 5 and people still try to act like he's a smart GM.

Eh Byram is worthwhile gamble

I actually think Sully would love him. Dude was salivating over Chychrun.

 

[Gurglesons]

Eh Byram is worthwhile gamble

I actually think Sully would love him. Dude was salivating over Chychrun.

I mean, sure. On a 3 year deal. Seven years is insane.

 

[CheckingLineCenter]

I mean, sure. On a 3 year deal. Seven years is insane.

Tend to agree

 

[DesertedPenguin]

Karlsson to Ottawa makes the most sense for both teams.

OTTAWA GETS
Karlsson at $7 million cap hit ($3 million retained)
Ottawa's 2025 3rd round pick, currently held by the Penguins
NYR's 2025 5th round pick, currently held by the Penguins

PENGUINS GET
Ottawa's 2026 2nd round pick
C Stephen Halliday

 

[Gurglesons]

Karlsson to Ottawa makes the most sense for both teams.

OTTAWA GETS
Karlsson at $7 million cap hit ($3 million retained)
Ottawa's 2025 3rd round pick, currently held by the Penguins
NYR's 2025 5th round pick, currently held by the Penguins

PENGUINS GET
Ottawa's 2026 2nd round pick
C Stephen Halliday

Doesn’t make sense for Ottawa and that deal is so awful for us lol

 

[Empoleon8771]

That Ottawa deal seems about right for what Karlsson will bring back tbh

 

[DesertedPenguin]

Doesn’t make sense for Ottawa and that deal is so awful for us lol

Why does it not make sense for Ottawa?

They have nothing on defense in the system. Their only points producers on defense are Sanderson and Chabot, and it's a steep drop off after that. They're going to want to make a splash now that they're back in contention, so why not bring back a fan favorite? And they have the cap space to make a move.