Salary Cap: 24-25 Salary Thread Crosbicles Volume MXIIX: Rust out, Marner in, all part of the plan!

[Empoleon8771]

I made these earlier this year:

Those increased curves for optimistic PPGs in the later rounds are interesting.

I'll eventually combine those graphs with the draft positions + likelihood of being an NHLer.

I think there could be a logical reason for that, teams are willing to take gambles on more flawed players with late round picks and those guys end up panning out more frequently than safe but low upside guys that go in mid rounds. Think the super skilled, 5'7" winger that teams won't touch with a 3rd rounder but regularly get taken in the 7th round. Those guys usually pan out more than the safer guys that go in mid rounds.

 

[Big Friggin Dummy]

Still "better" in what way though? Wins? Why do we care about "better" when the goal for this team is to bottom out entirely for a handful of years--hopefully coming out the other side of the tunnel with a few foundational pieces to build around for the next 15+ years. Bourque doesn't matter--unless you think he's some gem in the waiting, which I'm very skeptical of. We're talking about doing shit just to do shit at that point imo. You have your Bourque already with Novak. There's no need to toss another 3rd at Bourque, even if 3rd rounders are pretty much blindfolded dart throws in the draft. If you don't get anything, you're only out a worthless 3rd rounder and you've only cost yourself a complete nobody in Bourque, who you can probably find a similar player as on the waiver wire or for $2-3M AAV in FA. /shrug

 

[Jacob]

All the selling we still have left to do is going to make back a lot of those picks we might lose on offer-sheets (or for getting a guy like Howard), too.

I think if you have *too many* picks you might run into a point where you just have too many prospects all turning pro and getting ELCs at around the same time and not enough contract spots to give out to all of them and guys might start slipping through the cracks. It's a good problem to have but still could be an issue at some point.

 

[Jared Grayden]

I think there could be a logical reason for that, teams are willing to take gambles on more flawed players with late round picks and those guys end up panning out more frequently than safe but low upside guys that go in mid rounds. Think the super skilled, 5'7" winger that teams won't touch with a 3rd rounder but regularly get taken in the 7th round. Those guys usually pan out more than the safer guys that go in mid rounds.

Yep and related to that, it's going to produce a strong selection bias where the players drafted that late have to be more productive relative to their draft position in order to even get called up to the NHL. Similar to when Bader did that study tracking height analysis where short NHLers (5'10" or less) are more productive on average than tall NHLers (6'4"+) because the short players have to overwhelmingly prove they belong in the NHL whereas the tall players will get NHL playing time before they prove they don't belong at all.

 

[Empoleon8771]

Still "better" in what way though? Wins? Why do we care about "better" when the goal for this team is to bottom out entirely for a handful of years--hopefully coming out the other side of the tunnel with a few foundational pieces to build around for the next 15+ years. Bourque doesn't matter--unless you think he's some gem in the waiting, which I'm very skeptical of. We're talking about doing shit just to do shit at that point imo. You have your Bourque already with Novak. There's no need to toss another 3rd at Bourque, even if 3rd rounders are pretty much blindfolded dart throws in the draft. If you don't get anything, you're only out a worthless 3rd rounder and you've only cost yourself a complete nobody in Bourque, who you can probably find a similar player as on the waiver wire or for $2-3M AAV in FA. /shrug

Through value and getting value out of your picks. This team is better off by getting better value for their picks and prospects, and statistically you get better value through using 3rd rounders on RFAs or trades for young players than you do with draft picks.

If you get more value out of your picks, it makes it more likely that you turn it around faster.

 

[BlindWillyMcHurt]

I give very few shits about Bourque. Again... if nothing else his name is f***ing "Mavrik" and that's extremely unfortunate.

But I think I give even less shits about third round picks. At least in quantity. You are largely drafting complete prayers by that point.

 

[BlindWillyMcHurt]

Like... is Bourque likely any good? Probably not, no.

But he's played NHL games and has double digit goal totals in one season. That's more than like 90% of most third round picks can say... low as that bar is.

And yes those are exact, official numbers. I've DONE my research.

 

[Dennis Reynolds]

if nothing else his name is f***ing "Mavrik" and that's extremely unfortunate.

Come join Rutger, Cruz, and Zam, Mavrik! Then you can meet our defenseman with three first names!

 

[BlindWillyMcHurt]

Come join Rutger, Cruz, and Zam, Mavrik! Then you can meet our defenseman with three first names!

And Tristan. TWO Tristans.

I guess I didn't realize how dire the name situation on this team was.

 

[Andy P]

Like... is Bourque likely any good? Probably not, no.

But he's played NHL games and has double digit goal totals in one season. That's more than like 90% of most third round picks can say.

And yes those are exact, official numbers. I've DONE my research.

Based off the reports I looked at today on him, they say he is a speedy undersized winger with a wicked wrist shot. I would say he will be nothing more than a scoring 3rd line winger but if he can put up 15-20 goals, 30-40 points and brings speed and energy, I dont mind spending around 2 million and a 3rd round pick for that.

 

[Deport Ogie]

Come join Rutger, Cruz, and Zam, Mavrik! Then you can meet our defenseman with three first names!

Until we somehow trade for Jagger Firkus I am not impressed.

How you going to be named Jagger and not be a yinzer.

 

[Empoleon8771]

Like... is Bourque likely any good? Probably not, no.

But he's played NHL games and has double digit goal totals in one season. That's more than like 90% of most third round picks can say... low as that bar is.

And yes those are exact, official numbers. I've DONE my research.

Yeah I think Bourque is being talked about the most because he's definitely the most achievable, because Dallas effectively can't match an offersheet. But the same concept applies to other RFAs as well.

I think Samoskevich great RFA targets as well, especially if/when Florida ends up re-signing Marchand and Bennett. But he's not offersheet eligible so you'd have to trade for him. Similar situation with Quinn, he's a great target but Buffalo would match any offersheet below a 2nd round compensation.

If they trade Rust and Rakell, I would like to replace them with a Bourque offersheet and trading for either Quinn or Samoskevich. At most it costs a 2nd and 3rd, which you're getting far more for Rakell and Rust anyway.

 

[BlindWillyMcHurt]

Until we somehow trade for Jagger Firkus I am not impressed.

How you going to be named Jagger and not be a yinzer.

Well we HAD a Jagger Joshua but f***ed that up

 

[Deport Ogie]

Baaaaahahahah

 

[Malkinstheman]

This plus the Frederick deal put the Oilers 3m above the cap with a ton of holes on their team. They seem so ripe to make desperation moves to get rid of cap.

 

[BlindWillyMcHurt]

Baaaaahahahah

This just confirms that the Metro is the dumbest division in the league.

Also as bad as this next chapter is gonna suck... it sure is nice watching the Rangers and Flyers continue to shit down their own legs and call it progress.

 

[Big Friggin Dummy]

Maybe I'm just way outta line here but I don't think there's a notable difference in wasting a (we agree) borderline useless/valueless asset on a homerun swing in the 3rd, and throwing it at Bourque. Bourque is an absolute nobody. A 300 year old Kevin Hayes (64 games, 13 goals, 23 points) just had similar production to Bourque (73 games, 11 goals, 25 points) on a way worse team, with way worse linemates, in 10 fewer games. Grab a Hayes off of the waiver wire if this team's somehow desperate for warm bodies, or better yet, take a team's cap dump for an extra 2nd or 3rd a la Glass and Hayes.

We're talking about maybe turning a 99 cents (3rd) into a dollar (Bourque). Sure, technically, you've got yourself that NHLer. But he's a guy you can find any second of any day if you really want. I'll take the homerun swing at landing an NHLer of some significance with the 3rd. I'm a dreamer.

 

[Andy P]

This plus the Frederick deal put the Oilers 3m above the cap with a ton of holes on their team. They seem so ripe to make desperation moves to get rid of cap.

They would almost be forced to trade Evander Kane. He is the only player with an actual cap hit that doesnt have a no move clause lol

 

[Malkinstheman]

They would almost be forced to trade Evander Kane. He is the only player with an actual cap hit that doesnt have a no move clause lol

That and probably try to force Arvidsson to waive his NMC

 

[Big Friggin Dummy]

Every time I'm like "cap's going up, teams won't care about dumping deadweight cap hits" teams go and sign Fredrick to an 8yr, $32M deal and I'm like "Oh, yeah, the decision makers in this league are by and large as stupid as your average facebook fan."

 

[BlindWillyMcHurt]

@Big Friggin Dummy I mean I dunno... I see your point but ol Mavvy is a 23 year old former first round pick that has only played in 74 NHL games.

There is at least some intrigue and possibility of a higher ceiling, there.

Whereas any old FA signing and certainly Kevin Hayes pretty much are what they are.

If Bourque were some underachieving turd on a 6M dollar second contract because of one fluke year or something I'd be very dismissive, too. But as a 23 year old first rounder that could be had for basically nothing it's just like... what else are we doing? Might as well. You could use him in lieu of a hopefully-traded-soon Rust or Raks, for instance. Would that be any good? No. Is that also the point? Yes.

 

[Buddy Bizarre]

I mean... I'd usually laugh at this because Graves is abhorrent. Maybe top three worst FA signings on this team ever.

But like... you are clearly paying attention because Trotz is obviously a terrible GM.

He's turning out to be a really good coach, but an awful GM.

 

[Jag68Sid87]

All the selling we still have left to do is going to make back a lot of those picks we might lose on offer-sheets (or for getting a guy like Howard), too.

I think if you have *too many* picks you might run into a point where you just have too many prospects all turning pro and getting ELCs at around the same time and not enough contract spots to give out to all of them and guys might start slipping through the cracks. It's a good problem to have but still could be an issue at some point.

Agreed, 100%. This is where "development" comes into play. Opportunity is a massive part of development, and a big reason why we have failed miserably in the last 7 years under the ex-coach.


Also, I think Luke Richardson is a better assistant coach than Todd Reirden.

 

[BlindWillyMcHurt]

Agreed, 100%. This is where "development" comes into play. Opportunity is a massive part of development, and a big reason why we have failed miserably in the last 7 years under the ex-coach.


Also, I think Luke Richardson is a better assistant coach than Todd Reirden.

I think a bucket of old cottage cheese with a tie is a better assistant coach than Todddddddddddddddddd

 

[Big Friggin Dummy]

@Big Friggin Dummy I mean I dunno... I see your point but ol Mavvy is a 23 year old former first round pick that has only played in 74 NHL games.

There is at least some intrigue and possibility of a higher ceiling, there.

Whereas any old FA signing and certainly Kevin Hayes pretty much are what they are.

If Bourque were some underachieving turd on a 6M dollar second contract because of one fluke year or something I'd be very dismissive, too. But as a 23 year old first rounder that could be had for basically nothing it's just like... what else are we doing? Might as well. You could use him in lieu of a hopefully-traded-soon Rust or Raks, for instance. Would that be any good? No. Is that also the point? Yes.

I mean, I've said it doesn't really matter either way. I agree that a 3rd is pretty much a valueless asset and the odds of finding someone better than Bourque are very small. But like, you can have any number of Bourques for free via waiver wire, or be paid to take a similar nothingmancer off of a team's hands. And you get your extra slot machine pull.

I'm just bored, man. Daring to have a little ambition, even if it ends up being a dud. The difference between min-maxing a 3rd round pick and a 25pt (at the moment) Bourque is so minimal that there are valid arguments either way. I just prefer the cooler "f*** it, let's see what happens with the pick" avenue to securing that elusive warm body that a team doesn't bother matching a $2M AAV offer sheet on.