Salary Cap: 24-25 Salary Thread Crosbicles Volume MXIIX: Rust out, Marner in, all part of the plan!

[SEALBound]

I want to trade Rakell and Rust for 2026 first and hopefully get the rangers 2026 first. That would give the pens 4 - 2026 1rst in a deep draft.

Yeah, that would be most ideal honestly. Might be tough to "wait" that long though lol. But a 4 pick 1st round with ideally 1 top 5, 1 top 15, and 2 late 1sts would really set up the pool nice for the rebuild.

Ricky Bourque offer sheet of $2.25M per for 3 or 4 years (3rd round pick)
Nick Hague offer sheet of $4.5M per for 4 or 5 years (2nd round pick)

trade both in a few seasons

I would do that for both. That's a good transitional move / gap filler.

Mikael Granlund, eh?

Say didn't you guys say we needed a center?

I think it's more "hey, we can take your shit...for someone"

 

[Darren McCord]

I think it's pretty unlikely that you won't be getting massive offers for Rakell or Rust this off-season. Sure, if the offers are shit don't trade them just to trade them, but I think it's by far most likely that the offers for them will be good.

It's not just about acquiring futures for them, it's also about turning those futures into other young pieces to help the team in the long-run. In a perfect world, you send out all 3 of Rust, Rakell and Karlsson while adding at least 2 quality young NHLers (ideally Byram and a replacement top-9 winger) and additional futures. The goal should be to do something really aggressive like:

-Rakell to LA for Spence and pick #24
-Spence, Rust and pick #24 to Buffalo for Byram, Quinn and pick #39
-Karlsson to Carolina for Walker and a 2026 1st

You're basically turning Rakell, Rust and Karlsson for Walker, Byram, Quinn, pick #39 and a 2026 1st.

What are Byram and Quinn making?

I would rather spend money in UFA this summer and get draft picks for 2026.

This team should be trying to get as many possible draft picks for the 2026 draft as possible. It is a deep draft and could be the one of most consequence to starting the rebuild.

Wait until after the draft so teams have to fork over 26 picks instead of 25

 

[DrDangles]

Dumba and Marchment are the obvious targets. Dumba would cost a pick to move, but Marchment has value.

Maybe we could grab both for nothing picks/prospects and hope to at least flip Marchment at the deadline.

 

[Dominance]

The perfect storm would be - being in this exact situation but at the 2026 draft and us being picking top 6. Adding a 12ov from the NYR and then looking at 1-2 additional 1sts in a much stronger draft would be great. I am weary of sending out so many assets for 2025 1sts with it being such a meh draft.

I'd love for Dubas to get another Beauvillier type player - someone we take in trade or sign in FA that we can send out at the 26 TDL.

Yep, that’s what I was driving at. A 2026 1st and a young guy who can play next season for each of Rust and Rakell (and maybe even Karlsson with high retention?) would be ideal. Then I would look to bring in even more assets by taking decent yet overpaid players off the hands of teams like Dallas for later picks. It’s time to weaponize the cap space, and a guy like Marchment could do well with Crosby.

 

[Empoleon8771]

What are Byram and Quinn making?

I would rather spend money in UFA this summer and get draft picks for 2026.

This team should be trying to get as many possible draft picks for the 2026 draft as possible. It is a deep draft and could be the one of most consequence to starting the rebuild.

Wait until after the draft so teams have to fork over 26 picks instead of 25

Any player that you’re going to sign in UFA is going to be extremely old and will cost a fortune. This team should absolutely not be spending money in UFA on anyone outside of 1 year deals like Saad.

The UFA market sucks and the significant jump in the cap plus a ton of teams trying to contend will make contracts completely absurd in UFA. They’re far better off trading value for young 22/23 year old players who will be cost controlled for years over spending money in UFA.

 

[Randy Butternubs]

What are Byram and Quinn making?

I would rather spend money in UFA this summer and get draft picks for 2026.

This team should be trying to get as many possible draft picks for the 2026 draft as possible. It is a deep draft and could be the one of most consequence to starting the rebuild.

Wait until after the draft so teams have to fork over 26 picks instead of 25

Pens have 19 picks in these next two drafts. They can spare a few.

 

[KrisLetAngry]

LOL!!!

3 to 4 forwards if they want a spare and 1 cheap D probably the RFA.

So 3.5 million dollars in space needed to add.

They probably want Benn back and he probably will sign cheap.

Marchment at 4.5 and Dumba at 3.75 = 8.25

So now 2 cheap D and 4 forwards with 8.75 space. I can't see Bourque staying he had 11 minutes a game and got 25 points in 73 games. He deserves a raise.

8.75 - 3(Benn) = 5.75

2 D at 1 million = 3.75

3 forwards at 1.25 = 0

Cap space used
Now it makes a ton of sense why they are discussing Robertson being traded.

 

[Dominance]

Any player that you’re going to sign in UFA is going to be extremely old and will cost a fortune. This team should absolutely not be spending money in UFA on anyone outside of 1 year deals like Saad.

We should be overpaying in FA to lock in quality spare parts on 1-year deals, who we can retain 50% on and flip to contenders at the deadline for 2nd rounders.

 

[Darren McCord]

Pens have 19 picks in these next two drafts. They can spare a few.

they have 3 first rounders. Spare a few late sure but they need more 1rst. If Rust and Rakell can get you that, than I am not as interested in parting with them for players

give me a first from buffalo for rust

and bourque for a 3rd or 2nd.

instead of Rust for Quinn

 

[Empoleon8771]

they have 3 first rounders. Spare a few late sure but they need more 1rst. If Rust and Rakell can get you that, than I am not as interested in parting with them for players

Those proposals I listed had the Penguins gaining a 4th 1st rounder by trading Karlsson and getting an early 2nd in 2025 through trading Rust and Rakell for Byram, Quinn and pick #39.

This team needs quality young players, the only way to get that is to trade for them. The UFA class is downright awful, where a Byram equivalent player would cost at minimum $7 million on a 7 year term.

 

[Empoleon8771]

We should be overpaying in FA to lock in quality spare parts on 1-year deals, who we can retain 50% on and flip to contenders at the deadline for 2nd rounders.

The problem is are you actually going to be able to do that? Between the UFA class being terrible, a ton of teams trying to get better and the cap jumping a lot, teams are going to be giving out insane contracts in UFA.

You’re not getting a top-4 defenseman signed to a 1 year deal in UFA this year because a team will offer crazy money with term for any of those guys who hit UFA. Even someone like Dumoulin is probably getting 3 or 4 years as a UFA.

 

[Big Friggin Dummy]

The more picks the better. Odds are pretty shit you're gonna hit on an impact NHLer so, f*** it, gimme more rolls of the dice.

I don't think this team should be in the business of acquiring guys with the aim of pumping up their value and trading them down the line; going for profits of like, an early-to-mid 2nd rounder to a late 1st more likely than not. /shrug

If you're acquiring someone, let it be from a cap f***ed team who is trying to pay picks/prospects to open up cap space, or to acquire a genuine impact guy for the long term like a Peterka or Power from Buffalo.

I get the idea behind a guy like Hague or Bourque but I think you're kinda just wasting your time. Settle in to suck real bad for a handful of years and hope you hit on a good number of your picks--especially the high 1sts this team's in line to get moving forward.

 

[Randy Butternubs]

I get the idea behind a guy like Hague or Bourque but I think you're kinda just wasting your time. Settle in to suck real bad for a handful of years and hope you hit on a good number of your picks--especially the high 1sts this team's in line to get moving forward.

I can buy into this thought process too.

 

[Darren McCord]

Those proposals I listed had the Penguins gaining a 4th 1st rounder by trading Karlsson and getting an early 2nd in 2025 through trading Rust and Rakell for Byram, Quinn and pick #39.

This team needs quality young players, the only way to get that is to trade for them. The UFA class is downright awful, where a Byram equivalent player would cost at minimum $7 million on a 7 year term.

I mean what are Bryam and Quinn expecting to get as RFA? You talking about unsigned players still. Will they sign? And will they sign long term?

I want the first to get some good young controlled talent. Both Byram and Quinn will be 24. Are the arbitration eligible too? I am not trading a lot for a player who could walk in a year.

 

[BlindWillyMcHurt]

I am very skeptical of the whole "acquire, pump and flip" strategy as I feel like there is only one player left on this whole team that can actually help pump a player's value and there is only so much ice to share with him. But it has to be said that it did work with Beau and Glass last season. And to a degree Bunting if you feel that counts.

 

[Empoleon8771]

I mean what are Bryam and Quinn expecting to get as RFA? You talking about unsigned players still. Will they sign? And will they sign long term?

I want the first to get some good young controlled talent. Both Byram and Quinn will be 24. Are the arbitration eligible too? I am not trading a lot for a player who could walk in a year.

Byram still has another 2 years of control left (not a UFA until 2027) while Bourque has 4 years of control (not a UFA until 2029). I also don't see why they wouldn't sign long-term if you wanted to sign them, the Penguins have the money to pay them. Edit: just realized you meant Quinn here and not Bourque, but Quinn also has 4 years of control left like Bourque.

I think passing up on quality young players because you want draft picks would be really unwise. Byram is a 24 year old #3 defenseman that has the potential to be a cornerstone of your defense if you develop him well. What he is currently is basically the best case scenario for Jackson Smith, who's a realistic guy the Penguins could be drafting at #11 this year. I don't want to trade one of my 1sts for him, but trading Rakell and a bit more for him is a no brainer if you have the ability to do it.

If you want to keep Rust as a trade chip for more futures, you can also do:

-Rakell to LA for Spence and pick #24
-Spence and pick #12 to Buffalo for Byram

You're not losing any draft picks here, you're just trading down from #12 to #24 to swap Rakell for Byram.

 

[Big Friggin Dummy]

My big issue is that you're really not talking about anything significant here in terms of acquire, boost value, flip. These guys are probably gonna cost like an early 2nd to acquire (Hague) or an early 3rd (Bourque) and, realistically, you're probably looking at maybe getting a late 1st from a contender for Hague down the line or whatever the hell Bourque ends up netting you--probably not much more than the price to acquire.

If we're gonna try to flip dudes, I'd like to aim a bit higher than marginal increases. Sign somebody in FA for free (asset-wise) and hope to pump up their value. Trades like Glass, signings like Beau. It sucks, it makes for boring watching, but it's smart from a management standpoint. /shrug

I'm all for trying to get value and amass picks/prospects, but these Hague for a 2nd, flipped in a couple years (if everything goes well) to a contender for a 1st plans don't do anything for me tbh.

The biggest thing is trying to get solid value for Rust, Rakell and maybe EK. Though the last one probably doesn't matter a ton cuz his contract is gonna require a ton of retention and the team landing him is gonna need a pretty unique set up in order to get max effectiveness out of his game. Rust and Rakell are just plug and play guys on any team in the league, vet experience, great value deals in today's cap environment, and solid contributors. But again, they're guys who have had struggles recently with injury and production, so I wouldn't sit on them and gamble that you'll be able to eek out a bit more value at the TDL. If someone offers a 1st (ideally mid, fine with a later) and a solid prospect of Koivunen or McG's caliber, pull the trigger. Don't overthink it and get too cute. Also, their removal means this team's gonna be real dogshit, and that's the goal. Remove those three guys from the lineup and even with Sid and the new coach bump, this team's probably vying for a top 3 pick.

Anyway, gimme the draft. I f***in' hate off-seasons. At least they'll start to be meaningful now, hopefully. Instead of this "we pinky promise we're still trying really hard to compete" stuff as they acquire Hayes, Acciari, Glass, Beau, Grz, etc.

 

[BlindWillyMcHurt]

Anyway, gimme the draft. I f***in' hate off-seasons. At least they'll start to be meaningful now, hopefully. Instead of this "we pinky promise we're still trying really hard to compete" stuff as they acquire Hayes, Acciari, Glass, Beau, Grz, etc.

How hilarious is it that I'm STILL not sure if the team was trying to intentionally field a poor roster to help with the rebuild or if these were players seriously acquired for Mike Sullivan and his system.

 

[Empoleon8771]

I think 3rd rounders are such marginal assets that it doesn't make any sense to me to be against signing a 3rd round compensation offersheet. Even if you want to argue the potential reward isn't that high, the cost is so low that I don't think it makes sense to be against it.

2nd rounders I get, especially when the Penguins 2nds will be pretty close to #40 overall. I can understand passing on signing Hague when you're giving up a pick around #40 for him, and it's possible he costs even more than that. But giving up a pick pretty close to #70 overall for Bourque to see if you can pump up his value seems like a pretty no brainer to do. Even if it doesn't pan out, who cares? The Penguins will have like 3 3rds in every single draft in the next few years. It's the same kind of gamble they made on Tomasino, which didn't really pan out or bust but the cost was negligible.

Between the low cost and Bourque being a center, I don't see a legitimate argument against throwing an offersheet at him. Hague I can understand but the argument doesn't make sense to me with Bourque. This team has basically nothing long-term in the center pipeline and Bourque at least gives them a young guy that could possibly step into the 2C role after Malkin retires.

 

[Big Friggin Dummy]

I mean, we agree, 3rds are pretty much right on the cusp of valueless. I'm just sayin', I think Bourque's probably kinda shit, doesn't have a great spot here re: wingers to boost his value, and while I don't *really* care either way in his case, I just think it's kind of a waste of time.

And there is still value to be found in the 3rd round. Odds are real low, but this team especially should know you can just throw a dart and maybe hit a la Jake, Rust, Murray, Letang, etc.

 

[Andy P]

How hilarious is it that I'm STILL not sure if the team was trying to intentionally field a poor roster to help with the rebuild or if these were players seriously acquired for Mike Sullivan and his system.

Its actually a challenge to predict what will eventually happen. You dont know if Dubas will sell off and aquire more picks or assets, if hes going to put in offer sheets, if hes standing pat, etc. This is the debacle that I think everyone is unsure of lol

 

[Empoleon8771]

I mean, we agree, 3rds are pretty much right on the cusp of valueless. I'm just sayin', I think Bourque's probably kinda shit, doesn't have a great spot here re: wingers to boost his value, and while I don't *really* care either way in his case, I just think it's kind of a waste of time.

And there is still value to be found in the 3rd round. Odds are real low, but this team especially should know you can just throw a dart and maybe hit a la Jake, Rust, Murray, Letang, etc.

For everyone one of those guys, you get 5 guys like Phillips, Hall, Clang or Legare.

What Bourque is today is a good outcome for a 3rd round pick. Less than 30% of 3rd rounders even hit 100 games played in the NHL. The difference between a 3rd (27%) and 4th (22%) is insignificant. Hell, it's not much different for 2nds (34%) either.

This team should be acquiring as many guys like Bourque and Tomasino as they can. Just like you can argue that having more picks makes it more likely you hit on NHLers, having more young NHLers makes it more likely you hit on good NHLers. The Blues got massive benefits out of Holloway and Broberg last year by doing that exact thing.

 

[Big Friggin Dummy]

For everyone one of those guys, you get 5 guys like Phillips, Hall, Clang or Legare.

What Bourque is today is a good outcome for a 3rd round pick. Less than 15% of 3rd rounders even hit 100 games played in the NHL.

Okay. Bourque's still kinda shit. I'd, personally, prefer to keep the 3rd and roll the dice. Yeah, odds are low but it's not an impossibility and this team's got guys like Novak and Broz sitting around. Wins don't matter anymore, the goal is to be bad to land those top 3 picks.

Hell, this team may end up walking out of day 1 of the draft with a Hagens, Martin, or O'Brien. This "there's no centers in the pipeline" stuff doesn't really matter imo. There doesn't need to be, and that's a problem that'll get fixed in the next handful of drafts.

But none of this really matters. We're just bored as shit cuz this team's in its umpteenth off season that starts in April. Keep the 3rd or throw it into the woodchipper for Bourque, doesn't really matter.

 

[Empoleon8771]

More than anything, the reason you go after guys like Bourque as RFAs is because this team should be doing a lot of selling with veteran players and you're going to have a ton of open spots to fill on the roster. There is far more upside in going after young guys caught in a numbers game or stuck on a team that doesn't like them than signing crappy UFAs to 1 year deals and hoping you can flip them for a 2nd-4th at the deadline. I honestly don't even know how this is a debate, trading marginal assets for young NHLers is exactly what this team should be doing.

Mid round picks give you like a 30% chance at getting a NHLer, and maybe a 5-10% chance at getting a notable NHLer. Trading a mid round pick for a young NHLer gives you a 100% chance at getting a NHLer, and I'd bet the odds of being a notable NHLer are clearly higher as well. That's why you never see teams trading young players for prospects, unless the returns are bonkers (like what Tampa paid for Jeannot or Hagel) or if a team just doesn't want the young guy anymore (like when the Penguins sold Bennett). Even if you trade a 3rd for Bourque and he only ends up a depth guy that plays 100 games for you, that's still better than 70% of mid round picks.

From a long-term building perspective, the absolute best off-season this team can have is selling Rakell, Karlsson and Rust for significant futures (1st rounders and good prospects) and using lesser futures (like late 2nds and 3rds) to acquire young guys like Quinn, Bourque and Struble. It just sucks that the young D RFA group also sucks, so there aren't many good options to target there.

 

[Randy Butternubs]

Mid round picks give you like a 30% chance at getting a NHLer, and maybe a 5-10% chance at getting a notable NHLer.

I made these earlier this year:

Those increased curves for optimistic PPGs in the later rounds are interesting.

I'll eventually combine those graphs with the draft positions + likelihood of being an NHLer.


edit: this graph: