Salary Cap: '24-'25 Salary Thread: Crosbicles Volume MMXXVI: Sid is Still Goat

[Gurglesons]

DOC got a 12 team NTC lol.

There are a few reasons why Rakell should have more value in the offseason than right now:

1) Right now, it's a seller's market, because there just aren't that many sellers. However, there are a number of bubble teams with decisions to make. Teams like the Red Wings, Blue Jackets, and Senators will probably be buyers. However, they're not going to make big splashes like Rakell right now. They're the ones who will acquire the Beauvilliers, Hayeses, etc. Small adds to reward their players for playing as well as they have and getting them in a spot where they might qualify for the playoffs. In the offseason, though? After they make the playoffs? They'll be more likely to acquire a Rakell-level asset. Furthermore, a team like the Sabres or Ducks might also be more willing to part with a 1st, because they certainly aren't willing to do so now.

2) Yes, we all know that the cap is going up and so free agents will acquire more to sign. However, people don't have sticker shock until they actually see the sticker. Once Rakell-level players actually sign (and not theoretically sign) for $8-9M or so, GMs will make price comparisons and see that it's better to acquire Rakell at $5M rather than try to clear out that much cap space.

3) The Penguins only have one retention slot right now. While I think we would rather take salary back than retain, retaining might be the only way to get the right deal. However, the opportunity cost of retaining right now is higher than during the offseason, when we will have all of our slots open again. The value of Deal 'X' in the offseason is therefore higher than the value of Deal 'X' right now.

4) The 2026 Draft is supposed to be 'deeper' than this one is. Let's say we acquire a pick that ends up being 22OA. The player drafted at 22OA next year will likely be a better player than the one drafted at 22OA this year.

All of these things make the opposite of the argument you are trying to.

 

[wej20]

DOC got a 12 team NTC lol.



All of these things make the opposite of the argument you are trying to.

12 team NTC is pretty wild. He probably left some money on the table (though he does get a shot at earning better money when his new contract expires) but not sure he left so much on the table that he deserves a 12 team NTC.

 

[Jacob]

I was kinda thinking we could re-sign him for 1.5 million or so.

 

[Gurglesons]

I was kinda thinking we could re-sign him for 1.5 million or so.

Same.

 

[Ulf5]

12 team NTC is pretty wild. He probably left some money on the table (though he does get a shot at earning better money when his new contract expires) but not sure he left so much on the table that he deserves a 12 team NTC.

And I was in shock tonight when I learned Jamie Oleksiak had a 16 NTC. SMH. Wonders never cease.
How the hell does Oleksiak get 16 teams???

 

[CheckingLineCenter]

There are a few reasons why Rakell should have more value in the offseason than right now:

1) Right now, it's a seller's market, because there just aren't that many sellers. However, there are a number of bubble teams with decisions to make. Teams like the Red Wings, Blue Jackets, and Senators will probably be buyers. However, they're not going to make big splashes like Rakell right now. They're the ones who will acquire the Beauvilliers, Hayeses, etc. Small adds to reward their players for playing as well as they have and getting them in a spot where they might qualify for the playoffs. In the offseason, though? After they make the playoffs? They'll be more likely to acquire a Rakell-level asset. Furthermore, a team like the Sabres or Ducks might also be more willing to part with a 1st, because they certainly aren't willing to do so now.

2) Yes, we all know that the cap is going up and so free agents will acquire more to sign. However, people don't have sticker shock until they actually see the sticker. Once Rakell-level players actually sign (and not theoretically sign) for $8-9M or so, GMs will make price comparisons and see that it's better to acquire Rakell at $5M rather than try to clear out that much cap space.

3) The Penguins only have one retention slot right now. While I think we would rather take salary back than retain, retaining might be the only way to get the right deal. However, the opportunity cost of retaining right now is higher than during the offseason, when we will have all of our slots open again. The value of Deal 'X' in the offseason is therefore higher than the value of Deal 'X' right now.

4) The 2026 Draft is supposed to be 'deeper' than this one is. Let's say we acquire a pick that ends up being 22OA. The player drafted at 22OA next year will likely be a better player than the one drafted at 22OA this year.

1) sure. But less sellers = less guys like Rak on the market, which = better value for him now vs summer.

2) in theory. In practice UFAs may cost more cap but you don’t have to part with any assets- like you do for Rakell. Also the market becomes flooded with supply this time of year. I don’t think this helps his value.

3) don’t think they end up retaining on him tbh

4) they can trade for a ‘26 pick right now

All of this is to say either they are posturing or simply not trading him.

 

[Big Friggin Dummy]

The guy you trade in the off-season is Rust once his NTC drops and ideally a few days after the FA frenzy dies down and you can fleece a team desperate after they missed out on the big signings.

I don't want to hang on to Rakell because his value's likely not gonna be higher than it is this season. Try and get a 2026 1st if you can, if you can only get a 2025 1st, so be it--add somebody like Poulin or something if you have to. That dude's chances are done in this org.

 

[AuroraBorealis]

Dubas would be a complete fool not to exploit this year Raks is having. It's not just the return you get, but also the cap space we could use for more picks. We can gain flexibility to act as a broker at this deadline, and have 15 mil over the next 3 years.

What is Raks gonna do for us? Get 40 points or w/e next year when we're not sniffing a playoff spot? How is that helpful?

 

[sauce66871]

Speculating into this offseason… if all options are realistic. Would you prefer signing Marner or 2 of the following 3: Ehlers, Bennett and/or Boeser?

Been thinking the effects of both situations and just curious on others’ thoughts.

 

[AuroraBorealis]

Speculating into this offseason… if all options are realistic. Would you prefer signing Marner or 2 of the following 3: Ehlers, Bennett and/or Boeser?

Been thinking the effects of both situations and just curious on others’ thoughts.

The Pens should not be doing any of these things. They are not a few players away. They are an entire young core and roster reconstruction away.
They need less standings points next year in a deep draft, not more.

The only purpose of getting a good player now is if he's coming cheap and you can flip him later for a net gain.
Otherwise it's just a waste of cap space that you could use to boost your draft capital.

But from an entertainment perspective? Probably Ehlers and Boeser for me.

 

[wheelz87]

Speculating into this offseason… if all options are realistic. Would you prefer signing Marner or 2 of the following 3: Ehlers, Bennett and/or Boeser?

Been thinking the effects of both situations and just curious on others’ thoughts.

Marner. Can't let go of the dream of him turning into Kessel for us.

 

[DearDiary]

Speculating into this offseason… if all options are realistic. Would you prefer signing Marner or 2 of the following 3: Ehlers, Bennett and/or Boeser?

Been thinking the effects of both situations and just curious on others’ thoughts.

Sign Marner for 7@14M and then trade him at 50% for the Rangers 2027 and 2028 1st round picks

 

[Honour Over Glory]

I think that's alright for DOC if he starts scoring at a higher rate again but if he's struggling to hit double digit goals I'm less in favor of it

I think we all know he is going to finish strong in Vancouver and be back to what we hoped he would progress from last season to now. The mere fact he's no longer being f***ed around and utilized better in Vancouver, he already looks a lot better. The 4 games I saw of him, he looked fantastic, like he looked when he was comfortable and with Eller and Puustinen last year, where he felt like he was with a unit and knew his role on the line. He's playing quick, he looks very engaged and looks like a very good 3rd line player that this team refused to correctly utilize.

Shouldn't be a shock to anyone. I can see him finishing with closer to 16-20 goals by the end of the season with stats from both teams combined.

He's currently at 8goals and 10 assists in 57 games.

Then the narrative won't be "Sullivan didn't use him correctly and look at him now."

It'll be "Dubas traded away another young player..." never mind any actual context.

 

[OtherThingsILike]

1) sure. But less sellers = less guys like Rak on the market, which = better value for him now vs summer.

If there weren't fewer buyers (of Rakell-level players), this would be true. Because fewer teams will be willing to part with a 1st right now, there will be more buyers in the offseason.

2) in theory. In practice UFAs may cost more cap but you don’t have to part with any assets- like you do for Rakell. Also the market becomes flooded with supply this time of year. I don’t think this helps his value.

How many upcoming UFAs do you think are on Rakell's level? There don't seem to be all that many to me.

3) don’t think they end up retaining on him tbh

Probably not. It's unlikely that anyone would offer enough for him right now to make it worth it. But that also suggests that we won't get a lot for trading him.

4) they can trade for a ‘26 pick right now

Since teams know that the '26 pick is worth more than the '25 pick, they will use that leverage to reduce the return we get.

All of this is to say either they are posturing or simply not trading him.

It is unlikely that we trade him now, for reasons other than the return.
Nonetheless, if we should trade him, the return in the offseason should be better than the one now.

 

[Le Magnifique 66]

Dubas would be a complete fool not to exploit this year Raks is having. It's not just the return you get, but also the cap space we could use for more picks. We can gain flexibility to act as a broker at this deadline, and have 15 mil over the next 3 years.

What is Raks gonna do for us? Get 40 points or w/e next year when we're not sniffing a playoff spot? How is that helpful?

100% agree.

That's what I was saying a few weeks ago, you cannot pass this up, his value might be at the highest ever, good chance he gets to career high goals in a season. Turning 32 in a few months, really not sure how the next 3 seasons go for him. It's a seller's market to booth, not many solid players out there.

People are worried about not having enough quality NHL players next season, but we still have the summer to get players in and we also have to start giving a chance to our younger players in WBS and see what they're made of. We also have to approach teams that have players with 1 year left on contract that they no longer want and fleece them in prospects/picks.

Let's go KD, you got this!!

 

[Empoleon8771]

This was mentioned yesterday, but Anaheim has apparently been scouting a ton of WBS games recently. This is just speculating, but I wonder whether Zegras would be a kind of buy low move Dubas would look to make to add some talent for the top-6. Zegras hasn't been playing well in the past 2 years (12 goals and 30 points in 63 games in the last 2 years) and he has a $5.75 million cap hit, so he should be fairly reasonable to acquire.

Zegras seems like he has really fallen out of favor on the Ducks. He's not on their top PP unit and he doesn't appear to be a center for them anymore, which partially explains why his production has fallen off so much. His analytics and 5v5 production rates still seem decent or better, so I think he could be a guy that could really pop off and return back to a 50-60 point center if the Penguins use him like that.

I wouldn't do McGroarty, Brunicke or a 1st for Zegras, but pretty much any other asset or collection of assets would be on the table for me to pull off Zegras.

 

[Andy99]

This was mentioned yesterday, but Anaheim has apparently been scouting a ton of WBS games recently. This is just speculating, but I wonder whether Zegras would be a kind of buy low move Dubas would look to make to add some talent for the top-6. Zegras hasn't been playing well in the past 2 years (12 goals and 30 points in 63 games in the last 2 years) and he has a $5.75 million cap hit, so he should be fairly reasonable to acquire.

Zegras seems like he has really fallen out of favor on the Ducks. He's not on their top PP unit and he doesn't appear to be a center for them anymore, which partially explains why his production has fallen off so much. His analytics and 5v5 production rates still seem decent or better, so I think he could be a guy that could really pop off and return back to a 50-60 point center if the Penguins use him like that.

I wouldn't do McGroarty, Brunicke or a 1st for Zegras, but pretty much any other asset or collection of assets would be on the table for me to pull off Zegras.

Not interested in spending significant assets on Zegras, with all of his injuries and issues playing without the puck…he’ll be benched by Sullivan lol…would have much more interest in McTavish or Mintyukov, especially if we’re spending the NYR’s first…

 

[Empoleon8771]

Not interested in spending significant assets on Zegras, with all of his injuries and issues playing without the puck…he’ll be benched by Sullivan lol…would have much more interest in McTavish or Mintyukov, especially if we’re spending the NYR’s first…

I said not using any of McGroarty, Brunicke or a 1st for Zegras. The best asset I'd be willing to do for him is Koivunen.

 

[Randy Butternubs]

Dumoulin is only a few points behind Zegras.

 

[Empoleon8771]

Dumoulin is only a few points behind Zegras.

One point I'd give in favor of Zegras is that he has no PP production in the last 2 years, pretty much all of his production is at 5v5. In the past 2 years, his 5v5 points/60 is 1.76. That would have him tied with Malkin (1.71) this year.

I wouldn't do anything crazy for him, but something like Koivunen for Zegras seems like a really smart move for Dubas to try. I think Koivunen panning out to where Zegras is right now would be a fairly good outcome for him.

 

[CheckingLineCenter]

If there weren't fewer buyers (of Rakell-level players), this would be true. Because fewer teams will be willing to part with a 1st right now, there will be more buyers in the offseason.

How many upcoming UFAs do you think are on Rakell's level? There don't seem to be all that many to me.

Probably not. It's unlikely that anyone would offer enough for him right now to make it worth it. But that also suggests that we won't get a lot for trading him.

Since teams know that the '26 pick is worth more than the '25 pick, they will use that leverage to reduce the return we get.

It is unlikely that we trade him now, for reasons other than the return.
Nonetheless, if we should trade him, the return in the offseason should be better than the one now.

Not to get too semantic but bolded is kind of looking at it in a 1 or 0 way. Even in more normal market conditions with more buyers it really only comes down to 2-3 teams taking a hard run at a player.

Whereas as you pull sellers (supply) off the market and the Pens don’t have to make a deal around Rakell… price should in theory be higher now than it is in the summer when buyers have more options, and you can only use the player for 2 playoff run vs 3.

That was my only issue with that’s stated in the article— what’s reported about GMs paying more in the summer could very well be true— idc if it’s right or wrong I’m just saying it’s illogical.

 

[CheckingLineCenter]

One point I'd give in favor of Zegras is that he has no PP production in the last 2 years, pretty much all of his production is at 5v5. In the past 2 years, his 5v5 points/60 is 1.76. That would have him tied with Malkin (1.71) this year.

I wouldn't do anything crazy for him, but something like Koivunen for Zegras seems like a really smart move for Dubas to try. I think Koivunen panning out to where Zegras is right now would be a fairly good outcome for him.

I feel like Anaheim won’t do futures for Zegras. If they did I’d bet the ask is McGroarty or the NYR 1st… which while is maybe a stretch.. he also was a 60 point guy at age 20 and 21 on a team that couldn’t score. They have guys like Koivunen in their system already.

I wonder if you could do something like EK65 retained for Zegras+Solberg+Killorn as a cap dump.

 

[Ulf5]

One point I'd give in favor of Zegras is that he has no PP production in the last 2 years, pretty much all of his production is at 5v5. In the past 2 years, his 5v5 points/60 is 1.76. That would have him tied with Malkin (1.71) this year.

I wouldn't do anything crazy for him, but something like Koivunen for Zegras seems like a really smart move for Dubas to try. I think Koivunen panning out to where Zegras is right now would be a fairly good outcome for him.

Yeah it's weird. I was going to mention I hope Dubas doesn't throw a 1st for Zegras. But last I looked, he exactly 1 power play goal in 31 games last season and 1 power play goal in 31 games this season. And zero power play assists.
He can probably get back to his earlier production with more man advantage time. But as Andy mentioned with his off puck play and Sully, is this the right place to see if he can?
I more year at $5.75 million then RFA is quite the gamble if any assets of substance are going the other way.

 

[Empoleon8771]

I feel like Anaheim won’t do futures for Zegras. If they did I’d bet the ask is McGroarty or the NYR 1st… which while is maybe a stretch.. he also was a 60 point guy at age 20 and 21 on a team that couldn’t score. They have guys like Koivunen in their system already.

I wonder if you could do something like EK65 retained for Zegras+Solberg+Killorn as a cap dump.

I think they would ask for McGroarty but Koivunen is a fine alternative to offer, even if the Penguins were to throw on a bit more on top. Koivunen does seem similar to Pastujov, but I don't see them having a ton of guys in their system like Koivunen. Pastujov and Sidorov seem to be the only kinda similar guys, at least on the AHL team.

Something like Koivunen and a 3rd for Zegras seems achievable, but it largely depends on how Anaheim is valuing Zegras. I can see a really wide range of how he's valued by them. Or maybe Koivunen and that Rangers 2027 2nd for Zegras?

 

[Andy99]

I said not using any of McGroarty, Brunicke or a 1st for Zegras. The best asset I'd be willing to do for him is Koivunen.

I like Koivunen better lol…wouldn’t do that either…I’d do a 3rd