You make good points. The odds are really against you, especially in a weak draft.
If the Bruins are sellers (including Marchand) I think there is a good chance they could drop into the top10. They're drafing 13th right now and the Rangers, Red Wings and Islanders all looked poised to pass them.
I'm far from an expert on draft eligible prospects, but there are 5 centers listed on most of the top10 lists...
Hagens
Misa
Frondell
McQueen
Desnoyers
Hagens and Misa are having the kinds of seasons you'd expect from a future #1c, but they're expected to be gone by the 3rd pick. The top-end potential of the other guys seems a bit murkier (to me) for one reason or another. There's also a kid named Carter Bear who is ranked in the middle of the draft who looks promising, but again, if his upside was obvious as a #1C then he'd be ranked higher.
I guess the question becomes, who's the player you trade the pick for?
(Feel free to move to the draft thread if there is one.)