In the last 11 years, 27.8 percent of finishers — 40 of 144 — that did not hold a playoff spot on Nov. 1 righted the ship and made the playoffs, not including the COVID seasons.
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Saying a team is “.500″ is commonly understood to mean it has equal numbers of wins and losses.
It means something slightly different in the NHL, because of the single point teams get for an overtime or shootout loss in the regular season, dubbed the “loser point” shortly after Gary Bettman foisted it on hockey fans in the fall of 1998.
In any sport, it means mediocre. At present, that would be a generous description of the Bruins.
After
they got their doors blown off in Raleigh on Thursday, they were decidedly under NHL .500, at 4-6-1. Before that no-show, they had a chance to move to 1 “loser” point above NHL .500. They are now
looking up at the entire Atlantic Division and most of the Eastern Conference.
Montreal has the same record as 14th-place Boston, but holds a tiebreaker. Detroit and Buffalo (both 4-5-1) are below NHL .500. Ottawa, Columbus, and Toronto are slightly above. Florida and Tampa are battling for the top of the division.
It’s a crowded scene, and with an Atlantic-low two wins in regulation, Bruins are in the background. Strange environs for a group that was leading the East on the previous two Halloweens. Boston was a combined 31-5-3 at the previous two Thanksgivings, and spent zero days outside of the playoff format in either season.
This edition, clearly diminished but still potentially capable, will have to swim against the current. Is it too early to worry? Not at all.
Historically, teams that start a bit slower than these Bruins almost never make the playoffs.
Since 2013-14, when the NHL introduced its wild-card format, 14 of 176 teams that were at least 4 points out wound up making the playoffs, or just shy of 8 percent. Between the last two lockouts, 9.4 percent of those teams got in.
Before disregarding the idea because the Bruins aren’t that poorly off — they woke up 2 points out of the playoffs— consider they are tied, points-wise, with five other teams, with Ottawa 1 point ahead. Teams that are out by any number come Nov. 1 don’t often make it in.
In the last 11 seasons, 27.8 percent of finishers — 40 of 144 — that did not hold a playoff spot on Nov. 1 righted the ship and made the playoffs. (That’s not including the two pandemic seasons, during which the NHL altered its postseason criteria. Including the COVID years, 48 of 176 made it, or 27.3). Those who overcame include
last year’s Panthers, who were two 2 points out last Nov. 1 and went onto greater things. Same thing with the Oilers, who were 4 points out that day.
If the Bruins are actually a Stanley Cup contender, they are wearing the Halloween costume of a tentative, slow-skating, team that can’t possess the puck, can’t score, can’t lock it down defensively, and can’t stay out of the box. They look haunted. History shows things had better not get worse.
Six teams in the last 11 years were six 6 or more points out on Nov. 1 and still made it in. The biggest such outlier is the 2013-14 Flyers, who were 10 points out (3-9-1). Only one other team — the 2015-16 Ducks, 9 points — was more than 6 points behind the pack on that date (they won the Pacific Division). The Blues were 4 points off the pace on Nov. 1, 2018, before they found success with a new coach and a goaltender.
The Bruins were 4 points out on Nov. 1, 2011, coming off Brad Marchand’s breakout Stanley Cup run, and eventually won the Northeast Division. That was a team with all the championship elements save a reliable power play.
These Bruins don’t have one of those, either, and the rest of those elements have yet to reveal themselves. If they’re on the way, they can’t come soon enough.