Prospect Info: '24-'25 Prospects Thread: Generation Z

[Gurglesons]

Wheeler is very conservative with how he talks about everyone's prospects rather than saying they're all going to be elite. With the Canucks, D-man Elias Pettersson was their #3 ranked prospect and this is what he said about his upside:



He just uses very conservative language to describe prospect upsides rather than saying every single prospect will become elite like a lot of other prospect guys do.

That's probably an apt description of Elias Pettersson.

I dunno, our prospect pool reminds me a lot of the 17-18 era Penguins. Sprong, Gus, Jarry, and ZAR and a bunch of scratch offs.

 

[Empoleon8771]

That's probably an apt description of Elias Pettersson.

Yeah I'm not saying he's wrong, I'm just saying he takes a conservative approach with describing prospects.

The upside he gives the Penguins top prospects are:

McGroarty: top-9 forward that can play in any role
Brunicke: 2-way #3-#5 D
Koivunen: top-9 dual playmaker/scorer
Pickering: #5-#6 D
Blomqvist: 1B goalie

I don't think any of these are wrong but I do think they're more on the conservative side. I think you can reasonably argue that Pickering is already a #6 D, so him being only a #5/6 at his upside seems like a cautious estimate. That said, I think his upside is more like a complementary #4 type, so it's not like Wheeler is that far off.

 

[Gurglesons]

Yeah I'm not saying he's wrong, I'm just saying he takes a conservative approach with describing prospects.

The upside he gives the Penguins top prospects are:

McGroarty: top-9 forward that can play in any role
Brunicke: 2-way #3-#5 D
Koivunen: top-9 dual playmaker/scorer
Pickering: #5-#6 D
Blomqvist: 1B goalie

I don't think any of these are wrong but I do think they're more on the conservative side. I think you can reasonably argue that Pickering is already a #6 D, so him being only a #5/6 at his upside seems like a cautious estimate. That said, I think his upside is more like a complementary #4 type, so it's not like Wheeler is that far off.

Yeah, so decent group of prospets. But as he alludes to nothing that truly helps us moving forward.

You look at those first couple years before the Fleury draft and they had picked Whitney, Orpik, Armstrong.

I guess you could say we have the Armstrong and Orpik in Pickering and McG so you hope you can get a Whitney type with your upcoming 1st.

 

[Empoleon8771]

I was surprised to see Koivunen and Broz so far apart. I think they're a bit closer in terms of what caliber prospect they are. Not exactly huge impact guys but I think there's a solid chance they both carve out somewhat of an NHL career. Think Lucius is also quite a bit higher than I'd expected--kinda feels like a bit of a throwaway longshot at best.

I don't quite understand why Wheeler doesn't view Koivunen's skating as a concern but he does view Broz's skating as a concern. Granted I bet he has seen more of Koivunen than I have, but I noticed Koivunen's lack of first step a lot more than I noticed Broz having that issue.

He's insanely high on Koivunen's skill though, so maybe that's why Koivunen is ranked a lot higher.

Yeah, so decent group of prospets. But as he alludes to nothing that truly helps us moving forward.

You look at those first couple years before the Fleury draft and they had picked Whitney, Orpik, Armstrong.

I guess you could say we have the Armstrong and Orpik in Pickering and McG so you hope you can get a Whitney type with your upcoming 1st.

I don't think anyone really disagrees with this being the state of their prospect pool. Brunicke and McGroarty might reach an upside of being core pieces but the prospect pool as is will likely only give them some Malone/Orpik/Armstrong/ect caliber supporting pieces for the actual next core. Wheeler explicitly splits off McGroarty and Brunicke from the rest of the group as well, so it seems like he shares that opinion.

I keep saying that Koivunen's upside is a Jussi Jokinen clone, but Jussi Jokinen wasn't a core player for anyone.

 

[Pancakes]

Yeah, I disagree heartily with him on Broz…Broz’s pace of play is very similar to McG’s…a weakness for them both, but McG is #1 and he’s #14? I don’t see a great chasm between their NHL prospects except one was a first round pick and the other a second who had a poor college start…I think Wheeler has a predetermined dislike of Broz kinda like the complaints people had of Pronman and McG lol

McGroarty is 20 years old with those issues. Broz is 22. Huge difference in where they are at in their development.

 

[DesertedPenguin]

McGroarty is 20 years old with those issues. Broz is 22. Huge difference in where they are at in their development.

Yeah, and I think production factors in, too. McGroarty was an elite point producer from the start in college. Broz took a little time to get going.

Koivunen is the same way and why I think he's viewed as more of a possible contributor by Wheeler. Koivunen is a year younger and his production in Finland was impressive for his age, and now he's carried that over to be among the point leaders in the AHL at 21.

When you see the production, you're a little more willing to accept some possible flaws.

This was what I expected out of the list. I forgot Wheeler was conservative in his overall projections, but it makes sense to me to tap the brakes on the Pens' prospect list considering how many are not first round or second round picks. Most of these guys all had significant question marks in their draft year. Through hard work and some good development, they've become intriguing possibilities, but they are far from guarantees.

It's also why I think not rushing anyone is so important. These guys aren't elite prospects. They're not finished products. They may be better - or at least more entertaining to watch - than some of the current Pens, but you don't want to harm their development by asking too much too soon.

 

[Empoleon8771]

I think the more important factor with McGroarty vs Broz is that McGroarty's game is significantly more safe/translatable to the NHL than Broz's game is. If McGroarty doesn't pan out as a top-6 guy, he still has the defense/physicality/snarl/leadership to succeed as a bottom-6 guy. The only issue in his game is his skating, he's an extremely well rounded player outside of it.

He doesn't feel the same way about Broz at all. He has issues defensively, which is a concern for anyone in a bottom-6 role. He has issues staying engaged, with basically becoming unplayable (that's how I interpret Wheeler's comments) when he becomes timid and passive. He's not small but he's not big either, and he doesn't play with much physicality. Wheeler's description makes him sound like a "top-6 or bust" type of guy, he sounds closer to someone like Sprong than McGroarty. The issue Wheeler has is that he's skeptical that Broz will ever be good enough to warrant being in a top-6, if he was more talented he wouldn't have those concerns. Koivunen being ranked #3 shows that perfectly IMO.

I don't know if what Wheeler is saying ends up correct, but it makes sense why Broz is significantly lower than the other guys based on his write-up. He's a "top-6 or bust" type of guy that Wheeler doesn't think will become good enough to be a top-6 guy.