First round matches will be
Brock vs Western/Laurier/Guelph/York
TMU vs UOFT
EDIT: Just realized that York has 2 games left, so my original scenarios were not complete
Current Standings
Team, GP, Points, ROW
Laurier, 26, 25, 12
Western 26, 25, 9
Guelph 26, 25, 7
York 25, 23, 11
Relevant Games
Friday
York at Toronto
Waterloo at Laurier
Saturday
Windsor at Western
Guelph at York
Tie-breaking procedure appears to be (if I'm reading them correctly):
1. Points
2. ROW
3. Head-to-head record
4. Goal differential
Laurier and York both have the tie-breakers they need over both Western and Guelph (ROW). York and Laurier tie-breaker is a little more complicated and depends on what happens this weekend. If Laurier and York end up tied with points and on ROW, York has the tie-breaker based on head-to-head.
How York gets awarded 6th place
York controls its own destiny. If they win both games this weekend in regulation or OT, they are awarded 6th place. Even if Laurier also wins in regulation or OT, meaning York and Laurier are tied with 27 pts, and also tied on ROW (13-13), York is through based on head-to-head games with Laurier (3-0 for York). If York has an OTL vs Toronto and a win vs. Guelph and Laurier has an OTL, York and Laurier are tied with 26 points and will be tied on ROW...same tie-breaker applies. However, if Laurier wins in regulation or OT and Yorks wins both games of their games but one or both are by SO, Laurier gets the tie-breaker based on ROW
How Laurier gets awarded 6th place:
Go through with a regulation win plus a loss in either game by York or if York wins one or both games in a SO. If Laurier plus Guelph and/or Western win regardless of regulation/OT/SOW, all three will have 27 pts but Laurier gets the tiebreaker based on ROW.
How Western gets awarded 6th place:
Any type of win plus Laurier regulation loss or OTL plus Guelph regulation loss or OTL plus York not getting more than 3 points in their remaining 2 games. Would also go through with an OTL plus Laurier regulation loss plus Guelph regulation or OTL loss plus York not getting more than 2 points in their remaining 2 games.
How Guelph gets awarded 6th place
They must win and hope everyone else loses. They go through with a win (which eliminates York) plus a Laurier loss or OTL plus a Western loss or OTL loss
My prediction? Laurier finishes 6th.