2026 NHL Draft Thread

[Snubbed4Vezina]

So... I've been running scouch' draft simulator now and then to kill time. This time I had the most bizarre outcome. Imagine this would become real (not going to happen). Never had Carels so low. Never had Belchetz fall all the way to #29.


2026 NHL DRAFT SIMULATION RESULTS
========================================

YOUR PICKS:
R1 P11 (#11) St. Louis Blues: Carson Carels (D)
R1 P15 (#15) St. Louis Blues: Tynan Lawrence (C)
R1 P29 (#29) St. Louis Blues: Ethan Belchetz (LW)
R3 P9 (#73) St. Louis Blues: Tomas Chrenko (C)
R3 P11 (#75) St. Louis Blues: Luke Schairer (D)
R3 P12 (#76) St. Louis Blues: Jonah Sivertson (F)
R4 P11 (#107) St. Louis Blues: Oscar Holmertz (C)
R4 P27 (#123) St. Louis Blues: Malcom Gästrin (F)
R5 P11 (#139) St. Louis Blues: Landon Nycz (D)
R5 P22 (#150) St. Louis Blues: Anttoni Uronen (F)
R6 P11 (#171) St. Louis Blues: Max Isaksson (C)
R7 P11 (#203) St. Louis Blues: Adam Levac (C)

This looks good. Let's do that.

 

[Snubbed4Vezina]

To our resident prospect experts. Have you all dropped your final rankings yet?

I haven't been able to watch nearly as much video has I have in the past and I trust the hockey minds here than other places. Would love to see your takes a week before the draft.

 

[STL fan in MN]

To our resident prospect experts. Have you all dropped your final rankings yet?

I haven't been able to watch nearly as much video has I have in the past and I trust the hockey minds here than other places. Would love to see your takes a week before the draft.

Blueston posted his about a week ago. I’ll post mine probably tomorrow. Need to clean it up a bit and I’m doing a laundry list of activities with the family today because that’s what they want to with me for Father’s Day..

 

[blueper]

I wanted Lawrence for the longest, but now I'm hoping for Rudolph or Gus to fall and a center at 15. Wouldn't mind him at all though if that's the way the draft goes.

I'm back to hoping for Rudolph at 11 and the best center/wing at 15. But I do think the Blues make a trade in round 1. So, I think it will be a little more complicated than that. I'll grab my popcorn and watch.

 

[Snubbed4Vezina]

I still believe the Blues will end up picking twice in round 1 with both picks being in the top 12. We'll walk away with a good addition to the D and a solid forward prospect that has a good chance of sticking at C, assuming we don't end up with Stenberg somehow.

Here's my top 12. Trade into two top 12 spots and give me any combination of these players and I'll be pleased.

McKenna
Stenberg
Reid
Carels
Malhotra
Bjorck
Verhoeff
Rudolph
Cullen
Lawrence
Gustaffson
Smits

 

[PerryTurnbullfan]

Yeah, I wasn't a Musty guy myself. I think I wanted Edstrom.

Edstrom and Wahlberg

 

[DatDude44]

I remember a lot of people wanted Musty with that Stenberg pick. Still pretty good potential, but I like what Stenberg brings more.

I was one of those people....(I coached him in youth so, forgive me for being bias hahah) but I love Otto and think it was a great pick and honestly, i liked the pick at the time, but I just really wanted Musty lol.

Also, with our need for high end talent, I still kinda wish we took that risk, but if things pan out here with our picks this year or carbonneau really hits or we trade up for Ivar Stenberg then I sure as heck will not be complaining lol.

 

[LogosBlue]

So... I've been running scouch' draft simulator now and then to kill time. This time I had the most bizarre outcome. Imagine this would become real (not going to happen). Never had Carels so low. Never had Belchetz fall all the way to #29.


2026 NHL DRAFT SIMULATION RESULTS
========================================

YOUR PICKS:
R1 P11 (#11) St. Louis Blues: Carson Carels (D)
R1 P15 (#15) St. Louis Blues: Tynan Lawrence (C)
R1 P29 (#29) St. Louis Blues: Ethan Belchetz (LW)
R3 P9 (#73) St. Louis Blues: Tomas Chrenko (C)
R3 P11 (#75) St. Louis Blues: Luke Schairer (D)
R3 P12 (#76) St. Louis Blues: Jonah Sivertson (F)
R4 P11 (#107) St. Louis Blues: Oscar Holmertz (C)
R4 P27 (#123) St. Louis Blues: Malcom Gästrin (F)
R5 P11 (#139) St. Louis Blues: Landon Nycz (D)
R5 P22 (#150) St. Louis Blues: Anttoni Uronen (F)
R6 P11 (#171) St. Louis Blues: Max Isaksson (C)
R7 P11 (#203) St. Louis Blues: Adam Levac (C)

This is like rolling for stats in a D&D RPG computer game 173 times until you get 18's in all the stats you want. lol.

 

[Blues7]

Blues might be good at drafting after all. Two decades of data: a historical look at NHL organizations’ draft success

 

[Spektre]

This is like rolling for stats in a D&D RPG computer game 173 times until you get 18's in all the stats you want. lol.

It’s easier to get the cheat codes and get all 27’s

 

[Celtic Note]

Ok, so you don’t trust our scouts much and thus want to give them more shots to hopefully luck into a late round find. That’s what I’m getting from your last paragraph anyway and I think that’s the main difference in our views - our trust in our scouts.

I don’t necessarily disagree our hit rate after the 1st round hasn’t been great for a while. But it’s also too early to judge much of Feltrin’s hit rates, especially past Round 1 as guys taken later almost always take quite a while to make the league, if they make it at all. That said, the Blues have consistently hit on 1st rounders more than the average. Quite a bit higher actually. I’d actually like for them to try to increase their risk tolerance a bit in the 1st round, even if it would lead to a slight dip in the hit rate. That’s just a personal preference though - to swing for the fences more than try to continually hit safe singles.

And again, I’d just say that if Feltrin and his group aren’t showing to be among the best, I’d absolutely devote the time, money and resources to improve it - more scouts, better scouts, better data, analytics etc. Scouting and player eval is that important IMO.

At a point, you simply will have too many prospects and not enough spots for them all. Teams are only allowed 50 contract spots and there’s only so many spots on NHL and AHL rosters. Have too many and some will simply not make it because they’re all running into each other and some aren’t getting the opportunities to develop they should and would in a shallower org. So that’s another reason to not just load up on picks year after year and instead focus on quality over quantity.

The Blues in particular are currently positioned to where they should absolutely be prioritizing quality over quantity. We already have a ton of guys already at the AHL level with quite a few others on the way and have another 12 picks this year (5 more than the normal 7). Draft picks are assets just as much as players and prospects. They should absolutely be used to improve the team in whatever way the GM sees fit.

And I think it was Perry that said in a recent post that draft picks are valuable until they’re used and he’s absolutely correct. It’s funny how that works. Sort of how a brand new car basically loses half its value as soon as it’s driven off the lot. The value of those picks almost always seem to go down as then it’s just a maybe prospect. And then that asset either plummets to basically zero if the prospect busts or increases exponentially if the prospect hits, especially if he really exceeds expectations. This is especially true after the mid-1st IMO. So if other teams want to overvalue picks a bit on draft day, I’d absolutely be fine taking advantage of that.

I wanted to state I have enjoyed the back and fourth with you and Morty. There are good points being made on both sides of the coin.

I agree that a higher pick is more likely to yield a higher end player. History / the charts prove that to be a higher probability. I would also agree that the more high picks you have, the more likely you are to land quality players. These are just simple probabilities. Both are true.

Picks outside of the first round are much larger gambles. I personally only really value high end second rounders, after that you are typically missing out on the first round level fallers. Although this is largely contingent on the quality and depth of the draft. Some drafts you are not getting much there either.

Anything after the 2nd is a lottery ticket in the truest sense of the phrase. Plus, it’s not like we have landed a ton on them. As an aside, I would like to see a shift to more gambling on guys like you mentioned (higher skill, growth spurt dependent, etc. guys who’s ceilings are higher if they hit) with our 3rd rounders and later, possibly even our We don’t have to do that with all of our picks, but I would like to see it more frequently. What’s the risk anyway if we aren’t landing on them to begin with?

Strategically I am not a big fan of trading down. I could maybe see moving a spot or two if you are very confident your guy will be there. Even then, if all you are getting back is a 3rd or something like that, then I would rather just use the pick. Our scouts seem to do well in the first round. I want to give them the best chance to get the best player they can.

On the flip side, I can see trading up as a valuable strategy, but it’s situational. If we think we can jump a tier to get a better player, I would certainly try to do that. If the cost is a second or third rounder, then that seems like a brainer. It gets a trickier if it’s multiple 1sts. I think you really to weigh the tiers and understand the potential difference in probable outcomes.

 

[sfvega]

I'm back to hoping for Rudolph at 11 and the best center/wing at 15. But I do think the Blues make a trade in round 1. So, I think it will be a little more complicated than that. I'll grab my popcorn and watch.

It's gonna be an exciting night regardless of if we make all the picks or not.

 

[HighNote]

On the flip side, I can see trading up as a valuable strategy, but it’s situational. If we think we can jump a tier to get a better player, I would certainly try to do that. If the cost is a second or third rounder, then that seems like a brainer. It gets a trickier if it’s multiple 1sts. I think you really to weigh the tiers and understand the potential difference in probable outcomes.

It also is dependent on where we are as a team and what our prospect pool looks like. As of now, I don't see the need to draft 3 more prospects in the 1st round, and we certainly don't need to make 12 selections total this draft. Like yeah, more picks means more cracks at potential future NHL'rs for our draft/scouting team (and I really like our drafting), but do we really need to add 12 more guys to our system?

Frankly, I'd be rather disappointed if we don't do anything and just made our 12 selections, especially if we didn't do anything with our three 1sts. Only way I'd be happy with making those three picks in the 1st round is if we get steals at at least two of those picks. Like if Bjorck somehow fell to 11, and we got Gustafsson at 15. It's unlikely.

I think we should either be moving up in the draft, or using our picks as ammo to upgrade the roster now (with a player or players that fit our age group). Even with our later picks, I'd be trying to move up with them. We have three 3rds, two 4ths, and two 5ths. I'd be trying to turn pairs of these picks into better single picks at every turn.