On the whole, it’s fair to say that Reid and Carels are the two consensus top D in the class (in that order).
Scout 1: 1. Reid
2. Carels
3. Verhoeff
4. Šmits
5. Rudolph
Scout 2: First: Reid. Last: Rudolph.
Scout 3: Carels top, Rudolph bottom, but I’d be ecstatic with any of them and the order within this list is fairly fluid.
Scout 4: The group is very close, to me the biggest question is how much worse is the CHL this year? If you assume it is not meaningfully worse, then Rudolf and Carels are having really impressive seasons — have strong 200-foot games that should be in your top four in a couple seasons with top pair upside. Verhoeff likely is undervalued in all of this, given he was playing in (the) NCAA and was solid but not elite. He probably is closer to NHL-ready, but projection seems less variable and exciting. Šmits could play in (the) NHL next year and is a fun wild-card option, might not have the offense of the others but be a better minute eater. I don’t believe Reid’s season is as impressive as the others; OHL production is fine, but I don’t see game-breaking offense like some others have claimed. So I probably have Reid lowest. The other four, it really comes down to preference of handedness, playing style and risk tolerance — just trade back if you want a D in the top 10.
If you had to pick, who’s No. 1?
Rudolph is probably the guy I would bet on, but I am not taking him top five. I would trade back if in that situation and wanted a D. Rudolph is one of the better skaters, can play physical and makes really smart passes. Sometimes he looks lazy/too calm, but I think that is a product of his high-end brain and ability to make quick plays with the puck.
Scout 5: 1. Reid
2. Rudolph (but close!)
3. Carels
4. Verhoeff
5. Šmits
Curious: Why Šmits last?
I think we see a little lower production/PP ceiling there. Top four D, though, all day long. It’s a hard exercise to have to pick these guys apart.
Scout 6: First: Reid. Last: Carels.
You’re the first to have Carels last. Curious: Why?
It’s pretty close with all those guys. He just wasn’t quite as dominant as the others.
Scout 7: Reid first and Rudolph last.
Scout 8: Did not see Šmits, but Reid would be first for me. And Rudolph last.
Scout 9: 1. Reid
2. Carels
3. Šmits
4. Rudolph
5. Verhoeff
Why Verhoeff last?
Well, to be honest, it’s nearly a toss-up between all these D. I like Verhoeff as a potential top-two D but in modern hockey speed is essential and in the international games I have watched Verhoeff, I didn’t think that his overall speed (skating speed plus head speed) is top notch and in the physical department he plays sometimes a bit too much as a gentle giant. But all these are criticisms on a very high level. In the end, we are talking about a potential top-five pick, and personally, I have him top 12 but not top five. Maybe I watched the wrong games, but I stand by my observations.
Scout 10: First: Carels. Last: Rudolph (reluctantly, Verhoeff makes me nervous).
Why Carels first?
I just think Carels does a bit of it all. Hard to play against. I think the skating and defensive game is advanced. Don’t see him as a PP1 guy, but the offensive game is certainly solid enough.
Scout 11: I’d have Carels first (with the caveat that I haven’t watched Reid). Total package. A lot of Jake Sanderson there. Verhoeff last. Not a fan of his IQ or feet.
Scout 12: 1. Carels
2. Verhoeff
3. Reid
4. Rudolph
5. Šmits
Scout 13: First: Reid. Last: Šmits (somewhat by default as I did not see Šmits live this year).