I don't disagree with you. I also think that some of these kids are going to get a hard dose of reality when they get to the NCAA. Just mentioning what I've heard about Ritchie.Ritchie and Pickford will play in the bottom half of the lineup at any of the top schools. Or stay and lead a team, and if the team isn't good enough to make a run be trade bait to Kelowna. Some of these guys are going to find out the hard way, may be back before the trade deadline.
2nd-round picks from USHL have all pretty much gone straight to D1 in their post-draft season and usually do okay. Ritchie as a 19YO D+2 should be fine. Gavin McCarthy was drafted in the 3rd round, went straight to BU and was a regular in the lineup from day 1. Was in their top-4 this season at age 19.Ritchie and Pickford will play in the bottom half of the lineup at any of the top schools. Or stay and lead a team, and if the team isn't good enough to make a run be trade bait to Kelowna. Some of these guys are going to find out the hard way, may be back before the trade deadline.
This is interesting, and one of the things to watch. If the top guys from WHL rosters can be at the top of the high-end NCAA rosters, what is the gain from moving to NCAA? Other than NIL. Yes, playing against older, more physically mature competition matters. But if they aren't better, then is it really pushing you? You lose the heavier schedule, but gain training time. You add the education component, but high end one and done guys won't focus on that anyway (most of them). I don't see the fit for the majority of guys. I am biased though!2nd-round picks from USHL have all pretty much gone straight to D1 in their post-draft season and usually do okay. Ritchie as a 19YO D+2 should be fine. Gavin McCarthy was drafted in the 3rd round, went straight to BU and was a regular in the lineup from day 1. Was in their top-4 this season at age 19.
NCAA D1 hockey is definitely a higher calibre than WHL. The age difference matters. Nobody stands out in D1 to the same extent that they would in CHL at the same age. As an example, Bedard and Celebrini, both first overall picks, both averaged 0.9 points per game as NHL rookies on very weak teams. Bedard scored 2.5 points per game in WHL at age 17. Celebrini averaged 1.7 points per game in the NCAA at that age.This is interesting, and one of the things to watch. If the top guys from WHL rosters can be at the top of the high-end NCAA rosters, what is the gain from moving to NCAA? Other than NIL. Yes, playing against older, more physically mature competition matters. But if they aren't better, then is it really pushing you? You lose the heavier schedule, but gain training time. You add the education component, but high end one and done guys won't focus on that anyway (most of them). I don't see the fit for the majority of guys. I am biased though!
Poor comparison, as Celebrini still stood out in NCAA. Other than McKenna, none of the players in question are at that level. But you don't get to say that a usual 1st or 2nd line guy from the CHL will still be high end at the NCAA and also that the NCAA is a significantly higher caliber. Those statements contradict each other. Older isn't always better, and I fail to see that playing against older guys for fewer minutes per game and fewer games is a universally positive benefit. Many will not grow playing fewer minutes in fewer games. They need to choose wisely.NCAA D1 hockey is definitely a higher calibre than WHL. The age difference matters. Nobody stands out in D1 to the same extent that they would in CHL at the same age. As an example, Bedard and Celebrini, both first overall picks, both averaged 0.9 points per game as NHL rookies on very weak teams. Bedard scored 2.5 points per game in WHL at age 17. Celebrini averaged 1.7 points per game in the NCAA at that age.
The Celebrini-to-Bedard comparison is valid as far as pointing out the difference in calibre between D1 and CHL. Celebrini stood out, yes, but he still didn't demolish D1 in the same way that Bedard demolished the WHL. It's unquestionably a higher level of competition because of the maturity factor.Poor comparison, as Celebrini still stood out in NCAA. Other than McKenna, none of the players in question are at that level. But you don't get to say that a usual 1st or 2nd line guy from the CHL will still be high end at the NCAA and also that the NCAA is a significantly higher caliber. Those statements contradict each other. Older isn't always better, and I fail to see that playing against older guys for fewer minutes per game and fewer games is a universally positive benefit. Many will not grow playing fewer minutes in fewer games. They need to choose wisely.
I agree that there are guys committed for next season who could stay in CHL for one more year, for the precise reason that a season of playing as a higher-end CHL guy might be just as beneficial as a season of being a middling D1 player.
As expected, Ryder Ritchie to BU.