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Ya until he’s signed, there’s 1-32 chance he could.
There is always a chance but the odds are really stacked against it...much lower than 1/32 given free agent history and the player's ties to Toronto specifically and the East Coast in general. I think proposing lineups where Marner is on the top line next year is just a setup for disappointment. If the miracle happens we'll rejoice but I'm not going to give it any thought until then. Much like the Bedard lottery...there are still people who are upset that the miracle didn't happen.
Are the odds really stacked against it though? Ducks have signed a number of major UFAs. Federov, Neidermayer. There aren't many players of that caliber that actually get to ufa. Given Tor is already his home team and that he hasn't signed and there js history there, a lot of it bad, it generally leads to the idea that he really could leave and if he does that's the 1 team anyone KNOWS he would want to play for given where he grew up. To me if Tor doesn't sign him all bets are off. We really don't know what he'd want from a new team. Does he want the best chance to win now. Does he just want the most money he can get, does he want a smaller market where he's not going to be the scape goat when ever something goes wrong. Maybe that actually doesn't bother him. Does that makes the Ducks a legit destination, no idea. That's PVs job to sell Him on it.
They really haven’t signed a number of major FAs though. They’ve signed like maybe 3 in their entire franchise history. The rest are either mediocrity or former stars way past their primes or both
Hope springs eternal and that's fine as long when the Ducks don't/can't sign him you aren't disappointed or angry at Verbeek/ownership. And that is my fear with a fairly large portion of the fanbase here. Realistic expectations are important to happiness. I'll be watching for your reaction when he is finally signed.
I've been pretty open about my feelings regarding PV. He might not get Marner but if he fails to add a real top 6 upgrade again I absolutely will be holding him accountable for his lack of results. That's his job. To make this team better. And sitting on his draft picks, imo, is not indicative of a good GM. Accountability doesn't stop at the players.
I've asked before, but we're talking specific to Marner caliber players here. How many have actually become available? My point being that the pool isn't really that big to begin with so saying the Ducks won't get one isn't really a fair conclusion.
I've been critical of Verbeek for certain decisions but I can't blame him for not getting players who have no desire to play in California. I offered a challenge yesterday to provide a list of all the top tier UFA's that have been signed by ANY California team in the last 30-35 years. Someone mentioned Neidermayer. Still waiting for another. Fedorov was well into his 30s when he signed with the Ducks which doesn't really match the age range that Verbeek should be aiming for IMO.
I’m cool with pretty much any legit top 6 winger ehlers/marners… guys on trade market etc.
The fact we continue to not play Zegras at center to me, could be very telling. He just doesn’t get it done on the wing. Something has to give there
On the tax issue, which low tax states have teams that are realistic players for Marner? Maybe Seattle or Carolina? Most of the other options - particularly re- signing in Toronto - are high tax states.
Sorry, I wasn't clear, I meant like the situation where Chicago traded a young (24 or 25 year old at the time?) DeBrincat because they wanted to bottom out tanking. Hopefully there's a team trying to get rid of a young top 6 forward to bottom out this season.
Agree. The best route is to draft them (which is why I place such importance on the draft) and the 2nd best route is to trade for them early in their careers. They tend to stay under those circumstances. By the time a player reaches 28-30 the odds of them wanting to relocate to California drop significantly if history is any guide.
Dany Heatley signing with the Sharks comes to mind. I guess you could make an argument for Kovalchuk coming out of retirement and signing with Kings as well, but that one falls closer to Fedorov than Neidermayer.
