Speculation: 2025 Trade/Free Agency Thread (TDL is March 7th)

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Ehlers will turn 30 next year. Like all UFAs he will get overpaid and probably over termed. He's had injury problems in the past as well. Not sure I want to hitch my wagon to that horse for 6+ years.

Also, he absolutely disappears in the playoffs. I'd call it a small sample size, but it's 37 games of less than .5 PPG production. 4 goals in 37 playoff games. Yeesh. It seems significant to me.
 
Also, he absolutely disappears in the playoffs. I'd call it a small sample size, but it's 37 games of less than .5 PPG production. 4 goals in 37 playoff games. Yeesh. It seems significant to me.
Yes.
In addition, IMO, all bigger name UFAs get overpaid and over termed. (I'm not talking about older guys trying to hang on to a bottom 6 role) If they help a team win a cup it's usually considered worth it even though he will be a cap dump before his contract expires. . If you're really not a legit cup contender when you sign a guy like that it doesn't make a lot of sense to me.
 
Also, he absolutely disappears in the playoffs. I'd call it a small sample size, but it's 37 games of less than .5 PPG production. 4 goals in 37 playoff games. Yeesh. It seems significant to me.
Just like some players are just better fits for playoff hockey, some are just better fits for regular season hockey. Ehlers is a guy who gets you into the playoffs. Those are still valuable, and needed.

Teemu, for how awesome he was, was just a 0.7 player in the playoffs as well.
 
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Just like some players are just better fits for playoff hockey, some are just better fits for regular season hockey. Ehlers is a guy who gets you into the playoffs. Those are still valuable, and needed.

Teemu, for how awesome he was, was just a 0.7 player in the playoffs as well.

Most players will produce less in the playoffs simply because it's a tighter checking, usually lower scoring game. There were certainly series where Selanne didn't have as much impact (mostly during his years with San Jose and Colorado). But I don't think you can say Selanne wasn't an impact player in the postseason. He produced less but wasn't invisible.

Ehlers has been straight bad in the playoffs since his age 21 season as the Jets have gone one-and-done most years. I agree that some players are better in the regular season, which is ok, but not ideal. It puts a lot of burden on the rest of the roster once you get in there. It's fine if you've got a guy like Getzlaf who raises his postseason game, but if you don't have those guys, you're in trouble.

Edit: Just a note on Selanne since I found it interesting - Selanne's worst playoff seasons were arguably those three+ years in between his Ducks stints when he put up 13 points in 28 playoff games. Notably his points per game during the regular season in that same stretch was 0.64. He was just not the same player during that part of his career, probably because he was fighting that knee injury.
 
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Most players will produce less in the playoffs simply because it's a tighter checking, usually lower scoring game. There were certainly series where Selanne didn't have as much impact (mostly during his years with San Jose and Colorado). But I don't think you can say Selanne wasn't an impact player in the postseason. He produced less but wasn't invisible.

Ehlers has been straight bad in the playoffs since his age 21 season as the Jets have gone one-and-done most years. I agree that some players are better in the regular season, which is ok, but not ideal. It puts a lot of burden on the rest of the roster once you get in there. It's fine if you've got a guy like Getzlaf who raises his postseason game, but if you don't have those guys, you're in trouble.

Edit: Just a note on Selanne since I found it interesting - Selanne's worst playoff seasons were arguably those three+ years in between his Ducks stints when he put up 13 points in 28 playoff games. Notably his points per game during the regular season in that same stretch was 0.64. He was just not the same player during that part of his career, probably because he was fighting that knee injury.
But that is why they are drafting a bunch of big, strong, grinding bottom six players. Ideally, all of your best players play a game successful in both regular season and playoff style of play, but that isn't realistic, even for the best of teams.

Most successful teams have a bunch of bottom six guys who play better in the playoffs and the roster adjusts.
 
But that is why they are drafting a bunch of big, strong, grinding bottom six players. Ideally, all of your best players play a game successful in both regular season and playoff style of play, but that isn't realistic, even for the best of teams.

Most successful teams have a bunch of bottom six guys who play better in the playoffs and the roster adjusts.

How much do you think Ehlers will get paid? I'm guessing he'll be in the $8 million range. The Ducks already have Troy Terry and Trevor Zegras, two skilled but physically unimposing guys who are at risk of being taken out in a physical playoff series. Terry is making $7 million and Zegras will eventually get a similar or greater contract. We don't know how either of them will fare in the playoffs (hopefully well), but I don't think the Ducks can risk having three top 6 players on the roster who are potential playoff underperformers.

To me, Ehlers is a nice player who would be redundant on the Ducks. I'll never be sad about acquiring good talent, but I don't think he gets the team where they want to be. I'd be a bigger fan of going after Boeser or trying to acquire a winger through trade who brings a more playoff-style game.
 
This lineup is based on my expectation that a star will not be secured in free agency. If they are, great but This would be my strategy of trying to build on this season and plug some holes through free agency.

Screenshot 2025-03-10 134347.png


Mantha- big body, previous relationship with verbeek, typically paces for 20+ goals. he signed in Calgery 1 yr for 3.5M played 13 decent games and then had a season ending injury. I dont expect this offer would be beaten in FA as his future has some question marks and his game does have flaws. he would be a decent net front presence for this team if he pans out. If he doesnt there are worse contracts to be stuck with.

Frederic- Kind of speaks for itself. Tough and agitating bottom 6er with offensive capabilities. Can pressure those above him in the lineup to work for their spot. May need more money to win his services, depending on market.

Fleury- 7th D.

Pros of this lineup
- Doesn't logjam Colangelo next year, or Sennecke in years following.
- Allows kids to keep prime line up spots.
-Creates a pretty frustrating 4th line to play against.
-Creates a robust top 9.
-Provides wing support for Zegras/Carlsson

Cons of this lineup
-Mantha is not a sure thing
-Relies on youth development
-Zegras on wing issue remains
-Faceoff issue likely remains
-1st Line very likely isn't in the top half of NHL top lines
 
This lineup is based on my expectation that a star will not be secured in free agency. If they are, great but This would be my strategy of trying to build on this season and plug some holes through free agency.

View attachment 991069

Mantha- big body, previous relationship with verbeek, typically paces for 20+ goals. he signed in Calgery 1 yr for 3.5M played 13 decent games and then had a season ending injury. I dont expect this offer would be beaten in FA as his future has some question marks and his game does have flaws. he would be a decent net front presence for this team if he pans out. If he doesnt there are worse contracts to be stuck with.

Frederic- Kind of speaks for itself. Tough and agitating bottom 6er with offensive capabilities. Can pressure those above him in the lineup to work for their spot. May need more money to win his services, depending on market.

Fleury- 7th D.

Pros of this lineup
- Doesn't logjam Colangelo next year, or Sennecke in years following.
- Allows kids to keep prime line up spots.
-Creates a pretty frustrating 4th line to play against.
-Creates a robust top 9.
-Provides wing support for Zegras/Carlsson

Cons of this lineup
-Mantha is not a sure thing
-Relies on youth development
-Zegras on wing issue remains
-Faceoff issue likely remains
-1st Line very likely isn't in the top half of NHL top lines
Frederick would be a great bottom 6 add. He’s also decent at face offs if I remember correctly
 

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