WJC: 2025 Team Latvia Roster Talk

[Namejs]

Just to emphasize the "one off game" thing, half of that particular Kazakhstan roster has retired without playing a single senior hockey game in their local championship, while semi glancing on Slovak player profiles shows they all still play pro hockey some 6 years after the game. Yeah, we can argue about relatively healthy hockey scene in Slovakia benefiting their own youngsters in long term, but even in Kazakhstan proper prospects do not retire without a reason.

Kazakhstan is a 3rd tier hockey nation. Out of all the major sports, hockey is notably affected by pure chance the most. Just like 1st tier nations can lose to Latvia once in a blue moon, the same can happen with any other 2nd tier nation and Kazakhstan.

 

[Vikz]

Well, unfortunately, that is not how bookies work at all. There's not some mysterious cabal of all knowing bookies levitating over the Himalayas.

Of course not. They are using complex mathematical models, statistics, variables including rosters, injuries, calendar etc. Only then the odds are further corrected by the market. No one is giving 50/50 odds for a Canada - Latvia game and then waiting for gamblers to bet massively on Canada to produce the right odds. There is legit analysis behind it, you know.

I do not claim that Slovakia is better than Switzerland. I just pointed that there is consensus among the massive amounts of people who make money out of predicting sports events that Slovakia is on the other tier than Germany / Latvia / Kazakhstan.

 

[Vikz]

By the way, you commented on every single ass scratching on the team during the last several weeks. And yet you forgot to mention that the final roster has been announced with Flugins and Petrovics being the last cuts.

You probably forgot to mention that because of the holidays, and not because

Holy shit, what a boring post and you're forcing me to actually respond to this.

Please, put your thinking cap on. Maybe read the interview again?.....

....I hope I don't need to explain this again.

What training camp roster? It's standard procedure. They have to book the flights, etc. It's just a couple of weeks away.

The final camp is not going to have any extra skaters.

The 'camp' in Riga is only for the Euro-based players. The ones based in North America will join the actual WJC squad directly.

I thought Klaucans would be the last man out though. Forgot that Abols has enough balls to cut anyone, including a major junior league player, if he wishes.

 

[Namejs]

Of course not. They are using complex mathematical models, statistics, variables including rosters, injuries, calendar etc. Only then the odds are further corrected by the market. No one is giving 50/50 odds for a Canada - Latvia game and then waiting for gamblers to bet massively on Canada to produce the right odds. There is legit analysis behind it, you know.

I do not claim that Slovakia is better than Switzerland. I just pointed that there is consensus among the massive amounts of people who make money out of predicting sports events that Slovakia is on the other tier than Germany / Latvia / Kazakhstan.

It looks like I need to explain it to you. Sports betting is a business and the primary responsibility of bookmakers is to run a profit. They do that by placing a profit margin, guaranteeing profits from any outcome, as the implied probabilities never add up to 100%, they're inflated artificially. The setting of odds is usually outsourced to a company like Sportradar, which uses algorithms and mathematical models. It's not punditry or expert opinions, it's just numbers.

The more illiquid the market, the higher the overround. The smaller the market, the lower the limit of your maximum bet. This way the bookies guarantee running a profit.

They're not profiting by somehow predicting events, they profit from making even the roughest of estimates.

There is no such thing as consensus in a market. It's like saying there's consensus on the price of oil or the price of butter. It's a temporary equilibrium.

If the algorithm is wrong, the odds will be incorrect. The bettors are not making massive amounts of money, the bookies are the ones making massive amounts of money due to their artificially shortened odds.

The only scenario in which the bettors are making money is when the models are wrong. And the models are often wrong on niche markets, and particularly in these types of junior level tournaments, which do not have a lot of continuity and carry over in terms of the player pool. There's a lot of variance involved.

For instance, when a national programme is on the downturn, the models factor in their past results and it can take years before the algorithm is weighed correctly again.

If the liquidity of the market is tiny or the bettors globally come from an isolated market in, say, Canada, the odds won't actually even get corrected enough. Which is why I'm able to earn a couple of euros each year on the WJC.

And, most importantly, there is no consensus that Slovakia is in a different tier than Germany or Latvia. Their current roster is slightly better. Next year, if their roster is shit, they're still going to be the favorites. In terms of their entire programme, and we can choose any metric here, Slovakia is not better than Germany in any way whatsoever. And it's not even arguable.

The last time they faced each other head to head, the implied probability of Slovakia winning in overtime was <50%.

So do elaborate according to what metric is Slovakia on a different tier than Germany. So far I have not heard a single valid point on this.

 

[kudla]

In terms of their entire programme, and we can choose any metric here, Slovakia is not better than Germany in any way whatsoever. And it's not even arguable.

So do elaborate according to what metric is Slovakia on a different tier than Germany. So far I have not heard a single valid point on this.

Certainly not in men category, but since you said in "any way whatsoever" and this is a U20 (Latvian) thread...

I am gonna do it your way - In the last 10 years, Germany U20 has faced Slovakia U20 in total of 25 matches (all matches counted) and the result is 17 wins for Slovakia and 8 for Germany with the aggregated score of 79:55.

 

[Namejs]

Certainly not in men category, but since you said in "any way whatsoever" and this is a U20 (Latvian) thread...

I am gonna do it your way - In the last 10 years, Germany U20 has faced Slovakia U20 in total of 25 matches (all matches counted) and the result is 17 wins for Slovakia and 8 for Germany with the aggregated score of 79:55.

The first attempt at making an actual point. Thank you, kudla.

The issue with this is that Slovakia is on a downturn while Germany has been trending upwards. 20 years ago Germany was a minnow and 25 years ago we beat them 8-0 at the World Champs. The exact opposite of Slovakia.

In 2013, the Germans were pummeled with scorelines of 6-0 and 9-2.

It's only since 2018/19 they have established a foothold in the WJC. If we narrow it down to the last 5 or 8 years, the ratio of wins/losses is markedly different.

If we count exhibition games, it's 10 wins and 6 losses for Slovakia, but Germany has won the only official game between the two.

And what matters most to you guys here are apparently the odds available on betting markets, as this is a point that was pushed by an orchestra of posters earlier. The implied probability of Slovakia beating Germany in WJC 2021 was 54:46, with the game being won by Germany.

And you're trying to tell me that 'the bookies' consider Slovakia to be in a different tier than Germany? Your entire argument falls down on its head.

These are literally the two closest teams in talent, along with Switzerland. It's sort of like saying Switzerland is in a different tier than Slovakia, because they have won most of the head-to-head games. If that is the case, and it has to be the case for your logic to be internally consistent, there are 10 different tiers of teams at the WJC, with each national team being in a tier of its own.

Which obviously doesn't make any sense whatsoever.

 

[Namejs]

1a
Canada
US
1b
Sweden (1a/b)
Finland
Czechia

2a
Switzerland
Slovakia
2b
Germany
Latvia

3
Norway (2b/3)
Kazakhstan
Denmark
Austria

Each year these teams can end up on a different tier or subtier at the junior level, depending on how lucky they are.

 

[kutka]

1a
Canada
US
1b
Sweden (1a/b)
Finland
Czechia

2a
Switzerland
Slovakia
2b
Germany
Latvia

3
Norway (2b/3)
Kazakhstan
Denmark
Austria

Each year these teams can end up on a different tier or subtier at the junior level, depending on how lucky they are.

Please, take a shower namejs.

 

[Namejs]

By the way, you commented on every single ass scratching on the team during the last several weeks. And yet you forgot to mention that the final roster has been announced with Flugins and Petrovics being the last cuts.

You probably forgot to mention that because of the holidays, and not because




I thought Klaucans would be the last man out though. Forgot that Abols has enough balls to cut anyone, including a major junior league player, if he wishes.

Such a whiny, assuming comment. You sound like my ex and I for one enjoy not talking to her.

First of all, I had no idea I had an obligation to report the latest news to you.

Flugins was not singled out or named by anyone, including LHF in their roster announcement. There were no comments made about him or his play or his injury status. Neither of the games were broadcast. What could I possibly add to that? Flugins is either injured or he really did not impress the coaching staff.

It seems very weird you're somehow trying to get a gotcha out of this, as I was relaying what Abols and Kalvitis told the media the entire time and simply deducing things off of that. It's not like I decided they're going to bring 4 '08s to the WJC or that they're bringing 2 forward lines to North America.

If what they said was inconsequential,
a) it tells us a thing or two about what they saw in North America, but I do not like to speculate with literally no information from any sources
b) you take it up with them, one of them is a poster here.

And, yes, you were wrong about Klaucans.

What is your point?

 

[SoundAndFury]

By the way, you commented on every single ass scratching on the team during the last several weeks. And yet you forgot to mention that the final roster has been announced with Flugins and Petrovics being the last cuts.

I love how completely useless Slovakia discussion still takes precedence over sparing at least a couple of words about this

 

[Namejs]

I love how completely useless Slovakia discussion still takes precedence over sparing at least a couple of words about this

Get me a secretary to remind me of these things, I heard Vikz was interested

 

[Vikz]

Such a whiny, assuming comment. You sound like my ex and I for one enjoy not talking to her.

Says a guy that brought up a one year old Latvian WJC thread to tell a random Slovak that Rolovs has better stats than Gajan over two NCAA games. Talk about whiny exes.