Assuming you have not read any of the earlier posts here, that's very observant of you.
No, how did you arrive at that conclusion? I'm saying Kazakhstan is really bad and Germany has a bad crop this year. Slovakia is right there with Germany and Latvia sans Dvorsky. They are slightly better this year, but with a major overlap in talent.
No, Dvorsky is what makes them better. Without Dvorsky I see no major difference, these would be close match-ups.
They have played over 20 matches against each other over the last decade and their goal differential is 72:64.
1st point - don't compare teams without players, Dvorský is part of Team Slovakia and thats also what makes it better, period.
3rd point - look up straka, svrcek, misiak, Chrenko, Zálesák, belusko, kupec, Kiss... they are All playing major junior or regurarly among men in slovak extraleague, and im not counting in The whole NAHL and BCHL groups. If they were latvian they would most likely be in the line-up
A single prospect by himself is by definition an outlier. The median is what is more indicative of your national talent pool, which actually works in your favor, because Germany is pumping out draizaitls and stutzles at a much higher rate. Actually, there's not a single elite Slovak NHLer.
Well there are people who make a living out of predicting sports results - bookies. I just did a quick Google check, since I have no idea which ones are the more reliable. But all top search results put Slovakia not only significantly above Germany, but also Switzerland. Slovakia is actually closer to Czechia than to Germany and usually rated as having about 5x the chances of Latvia to win the tourney.
These bookies tend to make silly mistakes sometimes too. I am not sure to what extent they actually analyze the rosters for juniors, because these fluctuate between countries more than in men category. For example Finland can have a stronger generation than Sweden, but still end up ranked lower than them.
Why is Kazakhstan in the same tier as Germany or Latvia and why is Slovakia anywhere near Sweden and Czechia? What is that based on? What metric is used here? Do elaborate with specifics, please.
Well, unfortunately, that is not how bookies work at all. There's not some mysterious cabal of all knowing bookies levitating over the Himalayas.
Kazakhstan probably have their best team ever, but not by a margin significant enough that they should threaten survival at Elite level. That said in a one off game against a team that ices six or seven U18 eligible players.... who knows.
This year I find it quite unlikely, but remotely possible. 10-15% maybe.
Just to emphasize the "one off game" thing, half of that particular Kazakhstan roster has retired without playing a single senior hockey game in their local championship, while semi glancing on Slovak player profiles shows they all still play pro hockey some 6 years after the game. Yeah, we can argue about relatively healthy hockey scene in Slovakia benefiting their own youngsters in long term, but even in Kazakhstan proper prospects do not retire without a reason.
