Red Sox/MLB 2025 Off-Season Hot Stove II

[RoccoF14]

Which team do you root for? I think every fan deserves to feel it at least once

Milwaukee.

My brother works for the Texas Rangers (I did too back in high school/college) so when they won it last year, that was nice. But I was born in Milwaukee and they've always been my #1.

 

[yazmybaby]

Yeah, I just can't get too upset about not handing Alex Bregman a huge deal.

There are some metrics that have "imminent steep decline" written all over them. Maybe it doesn't happen, but I wouldn't bet $100+ million on it.

His WAR totals are pretty consistent the last three years and his BA.
He won a GG last year, so the dee is not declining.
What metrics are you concerned with?
Do you think Campbell/Hamilton/Grissom or Rafaela are better than Bregman?

 

[EverettMike]

Oh I fully blame Laz Diaz for that series loss, rational or not

The Astros pitchers also pretty clearly started putting something on the ball in the middle of that series. Spin rates suddenly went crazy, back to pre-crackdown levels.

 

[FrankerC]

Honestly, with all the tiptoeing of Red Sox, I would not in the slightest be surprised to see “Breaking: Alex Bregman signs 5 year, 150m contract with LA Dodgers” from Passan. From this free agency on, I will always put Dodgers as the #1 destination of any FA. Shoot, even the smoke for next year, Guerrero has a higher chance going to Dodgers than Red Sox.

 

[GatorMike]

His WAR totals are pretty consistent the last three years and his BA.
He won a GG last year, so the dee is not declining.
What metrics are you concerned with?
Do you think Campbell/Hamilton/Grissom or Rafaela are better than Bregman?

Consecutive seasons where his Offensive WAR dropped by 0.8.
Numbers against four seam fastballs last year were some of the worst of his career.
Measured out as having below average bat speed last year.

There's data that suggests that hitters start to lose roughly 0.5 mph of bat speed every year once they turn 31 years of age. Bregman turns 31 four days into the 2025 season.

 

[Mione134]

I mean, 2013 when Victorino is heading to bat with the bases loaded and Fenway singing "every little thing's gonna be alright"? And you just knew he was hitting a grand slam?

2018 with Mookie's infinite at bat? Or Eovaldi pitching into the morning in extras?

Even 2021 every Kike at bat or Schwarber getting the out at 1st?

So many feels since 2004... I just want the Sox to be enjoyable and competitive again.

My bro is a Sabres/Bills/Mets fan... so sad

That's all I want.

 

[EverettMike]

Consecutive seasons where his Offensive WAR dropped by 0.8.
Numbers against four seam fastballs last year were some of the worst of his career.
Measured out as having below average bat speed last year.

There's data that suggests that hitters start to lose roughly 0.5 mph of bat speed every year once they turn 31 years of age. Bregman turns 31 four days into the 2025 season.

There are absolutely signs he might drop off a cliff very soon. Not exactly uncommon in baseball history.

 

[Morris Wanchuk]

There are absolutely signs he might drop off a cliff very soon. Not exactly uncommon in baseball history.

I am good with 3 years but nothing longer. Only not 100% against it because Cora seems to be onboard.

 

[Smitty93]

I absolutely do not want to pay Bregman, and yet I find myself secretly hoping for it because I need some sign that FSG is willing to invest the money it will take to build a contender, even if it means spending some of that money unwisely. I hate that I've reached this point because I absolutely despised the way Dombrowski builds teams, and yet at least there were signs that ownership cared then. All we get are lies and false hope now.

 

[Midship]

Red Sox no longer a competitive franchise unless a salary cap is implemented. FSG has zero interest in hanging with the big boys despite having the financial resources to do so.

 

[McGarnagle]

Ever notice that none of the key members of the Astros' core from 2017 onward who left ever performed as well with their new teams as they did when they were an Astro?

If you want to give them the benefit of the doubt and presumed innocence of shenanigans, you can credit it to the bandbox of Enron Field, but I think we all know there are other factors at play.

 

[BigGoalBrad]

Red Sox no longer a competitive franchise unless a salary cap is implemented. FSG has zero interest in hanging with the big boys despite having the financial resources to do so.

I don't really see room for a new FA bt if our top prospects push through.

When I go to Fenway 1/2 times per year I buy standing rooms and sit in $200 face seats I don't really need FSG to outspend the dodgers.

 

[Mione134]

Bregman helps this team. Simple

 

[Jdavidev]

I was there in 2021 vs. Houston when Eovaldi threw a perfect pitch that would have ended the 7th?, I think -- but Laz Diaz called it a ball and Houston went on to score a bunch of runs and win that game.

I've convinced that strike gets called correctly, that the Sox may have found their way into another WS --- that was only 4 years ago.

Who knowshow different things might be right now.

Ugh, yeah. I try to pin things on refs/umps. But that was so bad, and immediately the repercussions... hard to ignore. That run was so fun though. I wish they stuck with it the next year... I think you can be competitive and still build for the future

 

[GatorMike]

 

[Shaun]

i think i’d max go 4/$120 with an opt out after 2

 

[GatorMike]

 

[GatorMike]

 

[Mione134]

At this rate I fully expect him to return to the Astros. Or the Dodgers swoop in for some more.

 

[Mione134]

The Oakland A's have outspent the Red Sox this offseason.

Hilarious

 

[GatorMike]

Buster Olney has the Red Sox as the #2 most improved team in MLB this off-season.

 

[EverettMike]

Sox over/under right now is 85.5 wins and boy does that feel spot on.

 

[yazmybaby]

Consecutive seasons where his Offensive WAR dropped by 0.8.
Numbers against four seam fastballs last year were some of the worst of his career.
Measured out as having below average bat speed last year.

There's data that suggests that hitters start to lose roughly 0.5 mph of bat speed every year once they turn 31 years of age. Bregman turns 31 four days into the 2025 season.

Do you think one of Grissom/Campbell/Hamilton/ etc are better?
The one hole we have in our lineup is 2B, both offensively and defensively.
His versatility of playing 3B as well, to relieve Raffy for 15-25 games and provide late inning fielding at the hot corner is something we need.
His hard hit velocity has improved all of the last three years, so his bat speed is fine....maybe he is using a lighter bat now?

 

[GatorMike]

Do you think one of Grissom/Campbell/Hamilton/ etc are better?
The one hole we have in our lineup is 2B, both offensively and defensively.
His versatility of playing 3B as well, to relieve Raffy for 15-25 games and provide late inning fielding at the hot corner is something we need.

Do I think Grissom/Campbell/Hamilton will be better than Alex Bregman in 2025? Unlikely, but not impossible. If Bregman were willing to sign a one-year deal, I'd probably pull the trigger.

And in the likely event that one of Grissom/Campbell/Hamilton begins to outperform Bregman at some point over the next two or three seasons, then Bregman's deal becomes an anchor.

 

[sarge88]

Do I think Grissom/Campbell/Hamilton will be better than Alex Bregman in 2025? Unlikely, but not impossible. If Bregman were willing to sign a one-year deal, I'd probably pull the trigger.

And in the likely event that one of Grissom/Campbell/Hamilton begins to outperform Bregman at some point over the next two or three seasons, then Bregman's deal becomes an anchor.

Maybe I'm being too optimistic, but IMO even if they give Bregman 4 years it's worth it for a few reasons.

1. He vastly improves them this season (and likely next) giving them a legit, professional lineup.
2. Without knowing how much the contract will be...it's only money --- yes, it may impact a prospect or two, but it's not "costing prospects" to get him here.
3. Injuries happen and you can never be too deep. His ability to play 2B/3B is a plus.
4. Yoshida's contract will be another year closer to being done, making him easier to move. As I said above, injuries happen, maybe at the deadline a team needs a LH bat and if Campbell/Mayer, etc. are ready -- they move him, put Bregman at 3rd, Devers at DH and one of the kids at 2B. (Maybe that happens next off season)
5. The fans need to see that they are serious about improving. I fully believe that if Soto wanted to be here, they'd have paid him. I don't think it was a lack of $ that made him decide to stay in NY. Signing Bregman goes a long way toward convincing people they're serious.