All of your points are correct. The ongoing unknown is any agreement that Verbeek and Gibson have with each other regarding a trade. All things being equal, Gibson is probably worth more to the Ducks if he wants to stay than what they'll get in a trade. But if he wants a trade...
Oilers only have two assets in my mind worth pursuing - Sam O'Reilly and their '27 1st. I love O'Reilly as a future 3C. The 27 1st could be a gold mine though if McDavid leaves after next year. Skinner would be coming back of course. Arvidsson would need to waive and he might. If he does then no retention. If he doesn't I'd hate to give retention b/c that would leave the Ducks with only one spot at next year's TDL. That said, probably only Gudas gets traded next TDL if the Ducks are out of the playoff picture so maybe it's no big a deal.
Going to be an interesting summer.