DavidBL
Registered User
Delusion suggests I don't understand it's unlikely. I know it's a dream scenario, not a likely scenario.
Prospect Info: 2025 NHL Entry Draft
- Thread starter WhatTheDuck
- Start date
Hockey Duckie
Registered User
I think with Hagens, you have to be looking longer term than today. It is possible that his smaller body kinda wore down as the season progressed as he was playing against much older players as a first line center, at 5'11 and 176 lbs as per Elite Prospects. Hagens' top end skills still show off with his skating and playmaking, but it's a bigger jump from the USNTDP to the top line in the NCAA. While there was a drop off in BC's overall play and production, Hagens still helped BC finish first in the Pairwise rankings.
In the chart splits below, we see Hagens off to a great start. Then we see his production dip. While creating this chart, I logged his FOW% in the first 16 games. He was 51% on the dot with 90 FO wins on 177 FO attempts. (I didn't want to 21 more games of research, especially when I don't think he is a prospects that will be selected by the Ducks.)
Last season in the NCAA kinda skewed productions for U19 with Celebrini along with the USNTDP's three musketeers of Leonard-Smith-Perreault. Celebrini is Celebrini. The three musketeers were playing on the 2nd line for BC with Cutter Gauthier playing on the 1st line. This season, two of the three musketeers, Leonard and Perreault, remained in BC and elevated to the top line. Their productions dropped as a top line grouping along with a freshman centerman in Hagens. Guess there is a difference when being sheltered and not sheltered.
Was Hagens production bad in the NCAA? Here's the productions list for Under-19 years old in the NCAA. For an undrafted U19 player in the NCAA, he has a very good showing as a freshman. What can Hagens do next season in college? I think that is why many pundits still list him in their top-5 and still at center.
Don't get me wrong, not saying he won't go top 5 or that he won't be a center in the NHL - I don't know. I'm just saying those teams in that range, if they aren't quite sure or convinced he's an NHL center, might lean towards those other options, or may just possibly like some of them more anyway. It just seems like someone who has been considered a top pick all along, may fall out of the top 7 by way of a late rising Desnoyers, Mrtka, Smith and/or whoever else. Martone seems more likely to fall a bit to me, as the pure winger and less dynamic talent.
It's somewhat similar to the McTavish draft year. I feel pretty certain about the D and F going 1-2 (Powers/Beniers - Schaefer/Misa) but then the next few picks from 3 on feel a bit more open ended.
Hockey Duckie
Registered User
I think Seattle might be looking at grabbing a defenseman at #6. Their pipeline is full of forwards. In the Athletic's pipeline rankings in Aug, Seattle had one defensive prospect in their top-10. That defenseman was ranked #7 in 5'11, left shooting Ryker Evans of the 2021 draft. Their top three U23 prospect are all centers: Beniers, Catton, and Wright. (I would hate it if Seattle steals the possibility of Mrtka going to the Ducks!)
If Seattle is forward focus and the choices are between Hagens, LW Eklund, or the possibility of McQueen, then the latter two might sound more appealing to Seattle. Eklund's production was against Sweden's 2nd tier men's league.
You really don't. It's sports fandom; "hope springs eternal" is a feature, not a bug.
Hockey Duckie
Registered User
The reason Hagens is still considered a top-5 prospect is because the scouting media all see him as a center. He didn't show up as a #1 overall talent, but his talents still have him as a top-5. The jump to the NCAA was a huge jump and he did it as a freshman 1C at a prominent program. He did well at the WJC-20.
If you've got info dribbling that Hagens is dropping, then do share. I don't know where the smoke is coming from like I've heard from other top prospects who fall like Raty, Lambert, or Eiserman. Most mocks have him at #3 or #4. Maybe you're discounting the competition level of the NCAA. Maybe you're attributing Eiserman's fall to Hagens; which they're two totally different players and there was talk about Eiserman falling all throughout his draft season. I don't see LD Smith passing up Hagens. Desnoyers is a toss-up b/c of his lower league competition. Could O'Brien pass up Hagens? IMO, Mrtka has top-4D projection, but I dunno if that beats out a top-line center prospect. If Mrtka had a consensus top-pairing projections, then he'd be vying for #1 OA with Schaefer.
From Hagens EP Page
Attachments
Pronman in his latest rank mentioned that not everyone is convinced about Hagens being a center, but ranked him #4 and seems to see him as a center himself.
"Hagens played well for Boston College this season in a support role behind a loaded forward group. He has elite speed and skill, and he could be a dangerous top-six center. The Flyers continue to swing on upside at the top of the lineup, adding a much-needed premium center piece, although not every scout is convinced Hagens is a center in the NHL."
But you just spoke of a scenario where Hagens would be available and possibly passed over by Seattle at #6. It's not even so much to do with Hagens himself, I just think other C and D prospects may be popping up and making Hagens and Martone's top 5 status seem more up in the air than it would have been a few months ago. I really like the fit for Nashville and Frondell, could see the Flyers and Boston going Desnoyers and O'Brien... McQueen might be a wildcard to slide in there anywhere too. Could see Seattle going D for the reasons you've mentioned, which then has Hagens/Martone still there as we get to 7/8.
But again I'm not saying Hagens will fall or should, I think it's open ended at this point, more so due to other guys rising. He's very skilled, I don't dislike him to be clear
Mrtka getting brutalized by Czech fans for his play in the last couple of U18 games. See the Czech U18 thread in the International Tourney forum for the particulars. Disconcerting if true but it's only a couple of games I suppose.
Hockey Duckie
Registered User
ehhh. Grain of salt, especially when Pronman still evaluates him as a center. Anything to add drama. That's kinda like saying "not everyone thinks Schaefer is the top talent in this draft".
I think Nashville, Boston, and Philly need a top, talented center in their system. The center choices are Hagens, Frondell, Desnoyers, McQueen, and O'Brien. I am not sure if those three teams would gamble a top-5 pick on McQueen. Now, we're down to four centerman choices. Frondell (HockeyAllsvenskan) and Hagens (NCAA) have produced at a higher level of competition than Desnoyers (QMJHL) and O'Brien (OHL). Then the OHL level of competition is better than the Q.
It's difficult to fathom Hagens dropping low the more I delve into it. Especially with Hagens' history of improving the following season. His production skyrocketed greatly between the WJC-18 and NTDP (U18) teams. His USHL production did explode from 1.29 ppg to 1.81 ppg. If Hagens' game skyrockets at the NCAA in his D+1 season, then he will jump to the NHL in his D+2 season far more prepared with two NCAA seasons under his belt. That potentiality of reaching the NHL as a mostly polished centerman sooner could be very intriguing.
It's really easy to dismiss something as "anything to add drama" when it doesn't fit the argument you are trying to make lol. I doubt Pronman pulled the notion from thin air, he must have heard it from somewhere, even if it's not a popular opinion. Consensus completely goes out the window once the draft starts, the only thing that matters is the opinion of the team holding the current pick. If the teams holding the top picks aren't sold on him sticking at center, he may possibly slip into our range. I never once spoke to how likely that possibility actually is.
Just three hours ago you said "If Seattle is forward focus and the choices are between Hagens, LW Eklund, or the possibility of McQueen, then the latter two might sound more appealing to Seattle. Eklund's production was against Sweden's 2nd tier men's league."
Just to clarify, you are now retracting that and saying you think Hagens goes 3-5 for sure? It almost seems like earlier you agreed he may slip a bit while also wanting to crap on me for suggesting it as well. Again I'm not saying he should drop, just that I can picture it.
I won't be shocked at all if he goes as high as #3, I just think the floor is possibly outside the top six. Like I said, things seem a bit more open ended after the top 2, similar to 2021.
Hockey Duckie
Registered User
It's hilarious that you don't think there is a minority that doesn't think Schaefer is the top talent in this draft. Hello, Misa fans! It does add drama.
The consensus goes out the door? Oh shit. Stop all Mock Drafts! If I'm to believe you and your schtick of "all the consensus means nothing", then a projected 3rd round pick can go 1st overall! Do you believe that yourself? Well, which is it? Is there actual smoke? Anything is possible, but not everything is probable. No one else is reporting this and even Pronman doesn't believe it to change his own mind. Why? Because Hagens was playing 1C in the NCAA that helped his team finished 1st in Pairwise rankings.
With the Seattle query, someone presented that particular query in a vacuum and I answered specifically to answer that question in a vacuum. Vacuum query is like, "Here are your variables with a set parameter and what will do you next?" But you're using that vacuum query in a global manner to say I've changed my mind about something. Guess you haven't played a lot of "what if" games.
There shouldn't be any shock if Hagens goes #3 since many of the scouting pundits have mocked him from #2 to #4. That's because they see Hagens as a center. I'm astounded that you had to admit, "I won't be shocked at all if he goes as high as #3." I guess you're trying to create drama by inducing Hagens "could" go #3. Me, I'll just keep saying, "There are four lights."
Massive contradiction by you here. Out of one corner of your mouth you are suggesting Seattle would have reason to pass on him at six, while at the same time trying to crap on the notion that there's a possibility he is still available at six. Dude you are insufferable sometimes lol
I had to add that point that I can see him going as high as #3, because you seem entirely intent on overreacting as though I've made some bold prediction he will take a massive tumble. Again I'm merely trying to say that I see things being pretty open after #2 and you don't need to make such a drawn out argument if you disagree with that
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Do you even vacuum query bro?
Hockey Duckie
Registered User
Hockey Duckie
Registered User
Mrtka added two apples in today's WJC-18 game. He's 1g + 2a in three games, making him the team's fourth best scorer.
Rasp
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- Apr 9, 2019
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Eklund is definitely a Verbeek player. I would be very happy to add him to the team but I can see him being taken before we have a chance.
The Midnight Burrito
True Fan
Rasp
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- Apr 9, 2019
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Verbeek quantified what they are looking for when drafting players.
To be drafted by us they need:
Compete
Hockey IQ
Skating
Skating however can be improved on so its not mandatory.
Eklund will have to wear elevator shoes to the interview with Verbeek to get his attention
Anaheim4ever
Registered User
- Jun 15, 2017
- 9,277
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Those shoes worked for Tom Cruise, so maybe.Eklund will have to wear elevator shoes to the interview with Verbeek to get his attention
As of now, my tiers for the top of the 1st round are:
1 - Schaefer
2 - Hagens, Misa
3 - Desnoyers, Martone, Frondell, Eklund, Mrtka, McQueen
4 - O'Brien, Smith, Aitcheson, Bear
Edit: fat thumbed it and posted too early
1 - Schaefer
2 - Hagens, Misa
3 - Desnoyers, Martone, Frondell, Eklund, Mrtka, McQueen
4 - O'Brien, Smith, Aitcheson, Bear
Edit: fat thumbed it and posted too early
Good list...I'd add Martin to tier 4 b/c I think his stock is rising. Lakovic could be in that tier as well.
