2025 NHL Entry Draft Thread
- Thread starter wickedwitch
- Start date
I loved the random Slovaks too. I enjoy his model though as I do think he finds some 'diamonds in the rough' that traditional scouting overlooks (typically smaller players who score at a high rate). As with any method, there are going to be oversights. It seems like he's trying to control for that by trying to take the model projection and size/play style to see if there are any actual NHL players (or star players) who have a similar profile.
Ultimately, the goal is to take in enough information so that I can be irrationally angry/exuberant no matter who we take.
Circling back to the random Slovaks, his model definitely struggles in leagues with less data which is how you end up with a handful of dreadful rankings.
I mean being a draftnik probably the best moments even though it can take a few years is a team taking a player way higher than all the draft pros and having it pan out.
Also it pains me to Zharovsky getting picked in the low 20s. When you start getting to the last of the 1st round it seems like you get these players that are ok and decent in some categories but when there is a player that flashes elite stick dangles that can't ever be taught.
That's the push/pull of drafting right? There are obviously busts throughout the draft but generally speaking the guys at the top of the draft check all the boxes. Skating, size, compete, skill, etc. As you get deeper into the draft, deficiencies start to become more apparent. They're high scoring but really small or they can't skate or they're awful defensively. Or, they're a great skater and fantastic defensively but their offense is questionable on a good day.
Having said that, I feel pretty strongly that if a guy projects most likely as a 3rd liner that they're not worthy of a first round pick. It's not a terrible outcome if it ends up that way, but the ceiling is the most important thing for first rounders. If you're going to 'draft' bottom six players, I'd much rather use later round picks to grab those prospects. I apply a similar philosophy to considering defensive prospect though it's much harder to project based on scoring.
I'd be curious to see what the long term math says about drafted micro sized players making an NHL impact? I mean if we suppose that say 1/20 draft picks overall make real impact in the show, what is that fraction for guys that are say, 5'9'' 165# or less?
Feels like for every Matty Perault there are 50 Eric Fehrs. For every Martin St Louis, there are 200 Phil Kessel. I don't know if these numbers are anywhere close, so I'd be really curious to see the actual stats about really under sized draft picks.
- Mar 21, 2010
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I'm genuinely confused. Is this supposed to imply that Kessel isn't a phenomenal player that any team would kill to have? Or that his ability is at all common?
Not at all. Both MSL and PK had phenomenal NHL careers. Scoring similar career totals. But there are plenty of other players in that career status that are full sized, and it seems like only one MSL doing it at 5'7".
MSL sits at 85th all time in scoring. How many in the top 170/200 all time are his size? I'm genuinely curious.
I just pulled PK because they're both right wings, both had similar game/point totals. Both great careers. But lots more players in that tier that are Kessel sized. That's my only point.
- Mar 21, 2010
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Ah, I see what you meant.
But all teams know this. And all teams, at least to some extent, favor taller players. So it may happen that the best player left when the Caps are drafting is 5'8 or whatever.
I'd have to double check to be sure, but over the past 15 years, I'd guess that most of the future star forwards who fell past the first round were shorter, players like Kucherov or Gaudreau or Point. Because tall players with their skill rarely fall.
Unless you're drafting very early, drafting in a lot of ways has become about taking advantage of inefficiencies. If other teams won't draft small players, take Cristall and Hutson in the 2nd round. If other teams won't draft poor skaters, draft Protas in the 3rd round. Or if other teams are worried about risk due to injuries(/cancer), draft Lapierre or Miro. Many of the Caps top picks in recent years have been taking advantage of something they feel other teams are undervaluing.
- Feb 13, 2019
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In my post I had originally included Cole Caufield's combine measurements, just for context. He was 5'7.25", 163 pounds. But I removed it because I didn't really want to cause a direct comparison to Caufield, given that he was ranked 8th among North American Skaters by Central Scouting that year. (And his numbers were pretty outlandish, 100 points in 64 games for USNTDP National Under 18 Team 'A'.)
But you're getting at what I was thinking too. How many kids in that size range end up as regular NHLers... Obviously you'd hope for a Caufield, but even Perrault was "something".
- Mar 21, 2010
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Yeah, so short guys definitely win past the first round: NHL Stats
Of the players who were not 1st round picks, you have Gaudreau, Point, Kucherov, Guentzal, Marchand, and Kaprisov all of whom are shorter and in the top 30 of points/game. Of the taller players, there's only Robertson, who was an early 2nd round pick. Panarin (undrafted) and Aho are both listed as 6'0.
And I don't know how tall those guys actually are for certain. A few were taller than 5'8 at the combine. But I bet a bunch are 5'8-ish.
But if you want a star after the 1st round (and maybe in the late 1st round), your best bet is to pick a shorter guy that fell because of their height.
It’s funny cuz Lane Hutson was quite a find in round 2 and he’s gonna end up being the best player from the 2022 draft
trick9
Registered User
- Jun 2, 2013
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I'd look at teams that are loaded with picks in this draft... 10+. One of those teams i'd guess takes him, maybe rounds 3-4.
- Feb 13, 2019
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Even if this is only one team, it's still fairly damning. Different teams generally follow similar philosophies on draft prospects.
I'll confess I wouldn't hate it if the Caps spent a mid round pick, 4th at most, on him. The upside is worth the gamble. (Though that in part depends on any interviews or meetings they would have.)
I'm still in on Ryabkin. Probably not with our first, but I'd be fine if we took him at 37. He's not the first 17-year old with attitude/effort concerns, and he won't be the last.
If the Caps like him based on their pre-draft workup and meetings, then I trust their decision.
- Feb 13, 2019
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Speaking of Cameron Schmidt, this was apparently posted yesterday, though I only saw it today. Slick skater, potentially a weapon in transition.
www.eliteprospects.com
Film Room: Why Cameron Schmidt could become a draft steal and highly-successful NHL outlier
David St-Louis breaks down the film on Cameron Schmidt.
www.eliteprospects.com
It’s not just the attitude but also the actual physical conditioning and fitness levels that are apparently concerning. I guess if they think they can work with that, but I’d probably wait til the 3rd
CapitalsCupReality
It’s Go Time!!
- Feb 27, 2002
- 65,274
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CapitalsCupReality
It’s Go Time!!
- Feb 27, 2002
- 65,274
- 24,432
Because we always believe “rumours”
. If the brain trust wants him, I’m good with it. YES, massive appeal to authority. But I don’t GAF.
CapitalsCupReality
It’s Go Time!!
- Feb 27, 2002
- 65,274
- 24,432
Where there’s smoke…Because we always believe “rumours”
If the brain trust wants him, I’m good with it. YES, massive appeal to authority. But I don’t GAF.
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