2025 NHL DRAFT

[Daximus]

Thinking about the American development angle a bit more. Since that scout left the Jets really haven't gotten much value out of their picks drafted out of the US system or those drafted out of Canadian junior B leagues that then go to the NCAA.

We have signed exactly 1 out of 8 picks that meet that criteria since the last high water mark in 2017 (Snerg and Kovacevic). Granted some of that is due to a couple (Smith and McGroarty) refusing to sign, but 3 of 8 isn't great odds.

Compare that to Europe and the CHL and we have signed 80% of picks coming out of each of those areas. Most won't be NHL players but they still are org depth for the farm team.or potential trade pieces.

So just based on our scouting results lately it might be beneficial to stay away.

Yeah I think you just take the more likely to sign player in a grouping but if it's a can't miss kind of deal. You take the kid and figure out what to do with him later. We still at least managed to turn McGroarty into Yager so we got a solid prospect either way.

 

[Whileee]

Yeah, I'm only getting started on my research. I'll have a much more informed opinion in a couple of weeks.

Jets will be in so much better shape if they hit on a lesser-ranked player like Hintz or Kempe or Aho. They might have done that to some degree with Salomonsson. I had some hopes Lambert might hit a higher ceiling, but he didn't take a big step forward last season.

I think He and Walton have some potential to break through as impact players, but it's a long shot.

 

[surixon]

Jets will be in so much better shape if they hit on a lesser-ranked player like Hintz or Kempe or Aho. They might have done that to some degree with Salomonsson. I had some hopes Lambert might hit a higher ceiling, but he didn't take a big step forward last season.

I think He and Walton have some potential to break through as impact players, but it's a long shot.

Yeah that's the dream. It was late picks just as much as their lottery picks that pegged the way for Tampa. They don't win the cup without smashing the Kucherov, Point, and Cirelli picks out of the park.

We could use a couple post first round impact picks. We do have Snerg but we probably need a couple more. Especially as we have had a couple first round duds in Ves, Heinola, and Luscious lately.

 

[James Lahey]

Yeah that's the dream. It was late picks just as much as their lottery picks that pegged the way for Tampa. They don't win the cup without smashing the Kucherov, Point, and Cirelli picks out of the park.

We could use a couple post first round impact picks. We do have Snerg but we probably need a couple more. Especially as we have had a couple first round duds in Ves, Heinola, and Luscious lately.

We also need a big draft to keep pace with Dallas (2017) and St. Louis who always seems to draft well and got two solid RFA's last year. Minnesota also seems on the up right now.

With the 28th pick, I'd love to see them draft someone who does something very well. I also wouldn't hate trading down if they don't like what they see, but that doesn't seem to happen to often in the NHL. Please no "high floor, low ceiling" guys.

 

[raideralex99]

Here are some of the rankings at what should be available at pick #28

Bob McKenzie (TSN):
25 Benjamin Kindel (RW)
26 Jack Murtagh (C/LW)
27 Milton Gästrin (C/LW)
28 Joshua Ravensbergen (G)
29 Cole Reschny (F)
30 Cameron Schmidt (RW)

Craig Button (TSN):
25 Lynden Lakovic (F)
26 Logan Hensler (D)
27 Benjamin Kindel (RW)
28 Sascha Boumedienne (D)
29 Joshua Ravensbergen (G)
30 Ryker Lee (F)

Jason Bukala (Sportsnet):
25 Joshua Ravensbergen (G)
26 Jack Murtagh (C/LW)
27 Blake Fiddler (D)
28 Cullen Potter (LW)
29 Ivan Ryabkin (C)
30 Lynden Lakovic (F)

Elite Prospect:
25 Malcolm Spence (LW)
26 Vaclav Nestrasil (RW)
27 Benjamin Kevan (F)
28 Jack Murtagh (C/LW)
29 Bill Zonnon (LW)
30 William Moore (C)

 

[surixon]

We also need a big draft to keep pace with Dallas (2017) and St. Louis who always seems to draft well and got two solid RFA's last year. Minnesota also seems on the up right now.

With the 28th pick, I'd love to see them draft someone who does something very well. I also wouldn't hate trading down if they don't like what they see, but that doesn't seem to happen to often in the NHL. Please no "high floor, low ceiling" guys.

Noone drafted in this draft will help us keep up with the Jonses. Our core will be long since done by the time our first round pick is ready to play.

We are really counting on the picks between 2021 - 2023 to be able to help in this window.

Our drafting 2021 onward will have a big say though if the Perfetti/Snerg era has a contention window.

 

[Whileee]

Here are some of the rankings at what should be available at pick #28

Bob McKenzie (TSN):
25 Benjamin Kindel (RW)
26 Jack Murtagh (C/LW)
27 Milton Gästrin (C/LW)
28 Joshua Ravensbergen (G)
29 Cole Reschny (F)
30 Cameron Schmidt (RW)

Craig Button (TSN):
25 Lynden Lakovic (F)
26 Logan Hensler (D)
27 Benjamin Kindel (RW)
28 Sascha Boumedienne (D)
29 Joshua Ravensbergen (G)
30 Ryker Lee (F)

Jason Bukala (Sportsnet):
25 Joshua Ravensbergen (G)
26 Jack Murtagh (C/LW)
27 Blake Fiddler (D)
28 Cullen Potter (LW)
29 Ivan Ryabkin (C)
30 Lynden Lakovic (F)

Elite Prospect:
25 Malcolm Spence (LW)
26 Vaclav Nestrasil (RW)
27 Benjamin Kevan (F)
28 Jack Murtagh (C/LW)
29 Bill Zonnon (LW)
30 William Moore (C)

I don't tend to look at who.might be available until McKenzie publishes his final list. It tends be be much better than others for that because it's based on how NHL teams are ranking them.

 

[cbcwpg]

JMO, but if the Jets can get a player that can play now and contribute, they might be willing to trade their 1st round pick this draft or combine that pick with a player…. The Jets are in their win now mode, so if they use their pick in round 1, whomever they pick you won’t even see them for 4-5 years.

Maybe combine the 1st pick with say Heinola and see what you get..

 

[Daximus]

JMO, but if the Jets can get a player that can play now and contribute, they might be willing to trade their 1st round pick this draft or combine that pick with a player…. The Jets are in their win now mode, so if they use their pick in round 1, whomever they pick you won’t even see them for 4-5 years.

Maybe combine the 1st pick with say Heinola and see what you get..

It's a bit of a weak draft in the back half so it would likely need to be a draft day trade and some team is targeting a player they really really want. I could maybe see a team willing to make a move up to grab Ravensbergen if he's there but I don't think it's likely to include much more than some additional picks.

 

[lanky]

JMO, but if the Jets can get a player that can play now and contribute, they might be willing to trade their 1st round pick this draft or combine that pick with a player…. The Jets are in their win now mode, so if they use their pick in round 1, whomever they pick you won’t even see them for 4-5 years.

Maybe combine the 1st pick with say Heinola and see what you get..

I suspect Chipman is more concerned about not being a bottom feeder than he is concerned about winning the cup. I think he won't let Chevy go all in, now that fans have shown their support is not unconditional.

 

[Daximus]

I suspect Chipman is more concerned about not being a bottom feeder than he is concerned about winning the cup. I think he won't let Chevy go all in, now that fans have shown their support is not unconditional.

There is no doubt the org wants to maintain a cupboard of sorts and likely won't be the type of team to go all in every single season. Unless we somehow find ourselves with a dynamic duo like Crosby/Malkin, McDavid/Drai or MacK/Makar. Which at that point provided they want to stay long term you have a shot to win it all in any given year so might as well go for it. Players like that put buts in seats.

 

[Channelcat]

Here are some of the rankings at what should be available at pick #28

Bob McKenzie (TSN):
25 Benjamin Kindel (RW)
26 Jack Murtagh (C/LW)
27 Milton Gästrin (C/LW)
28 Joshua Ravensbergen (G)
29 Cole Reschny (F)
30 Cameron Schmidt (RW)

Craig Button (TSN):
25 Lynden Lakovic (F)
26 Logan Hensler (D)
27 Benjamin Kindel (RW)
28 Sascha Boumedienne (D)
29 Joshua Ravensbergen (G)
30 Ryker Lee (F)

Jason Bukala (Sportsnet):
25 Joshua Ravensbergen (G)
26 Jack Murtagh (C/LW)
27 Blake Fiddler (D)
28 Cullen Potter (LW)
29 Ivan Ryabkin (C)
30 Lynden Lakovic (F)

Elite Prospect:
25 Malcolm Spence (LW)
26 Vaclav Nestrasil (RW)
27 Benjamin Kevan (F)
28 Jack Murtagh (C/LW)
29 Bill Zonnon (LW)
30 William Moore (C)

I like the idea of a big C with top end speed like Murtagh

 

[Buffdog]

I like the idea of a big C with top end speed like Murtagh

I wonder how wary the org is of USNDTP players at this point

 

[Daximus]

I wonder how wary the org is of USNDTP players at this point

I hope they are very wary. That Rutger situation was just him blowing smoke up the Jets and fans asses until he could get out.

 

[Gm0ney]

I'd like to see the numbers of goalies who pan out vs their draft position. For every Rinne who comes out of nowhere from the 8th round there is a Price selected high who carries a team.

Sometimes you luck out and get a Jamie Benn in the 5th round and sometimes you draft a Nail Yakupov.

It's all relative.

Here are some numbers - all drafted goalies (and undrafted goalies who played a game) since 2000:

Rnd	Drafted	Wins	SV%	Success	Success Rate
1	32	3732	.898	16	50%
2	72	3090	.904	23	32%
3	86	2843	.883	18	21%
4	80	1494	.892	10	13%
5	108	1107	.910	8	7%
6	104	797	.909	8	8%
7	90	1233	.891	6	7%
8	17	490	.853	2	12%
9	13	574	.912	2	15%
Undrafted	31	2794	.905	20	65%

Success for the purposes of this table is defined as 100 games played, so the bar isn't too high (if you set it at 200 games, the R1 success rate drops from 50% to 34%).

The Undrafted success rate is going to be skewed because the set of undrafted goalies who never played in the NHL includes a lot of players (including Buffdog?)...so there's quite a selection bias there.

Here is a chart of the number of goalies drafted in each round and the aggregate SV% of that round's goalies:

They stopped drafting after round 7 in 2005, so it's a small sample.

The scatter plot of all goalies drafted since 2000 doesn't show much in the way of a strong trend in terms of SV%.

 

[surixon]

Here are some numbers - all drafted goalies (and undrafted goalies who played a game) since 2000:

Rnd	Drafted	Wins	SV%	Success	Success Rate
1	32	3732	.898	16	50%
2	72	3090	.904	23	32%
3	86	2843	.883	18	21%
4	80	1494	.892	10	13%
5	108	1107	.910	8	7%
6	104	797	.909	8	8%
7	90	1233	.891	6	7%
8	17	490	.853	2	12%
9	13	574	.912	2	15%
Undrafted	31	2794	.905	20	65%

Success for the purposes of this table is defined as 100 games played, so the bar isn't too high (if you set it at 200 games, the R1 success rate drops from 50% to 34%).

The Undrafted success rate is going to be skewed because the set of undrafted goalies who never played in the NHL includes a lot of players (including Buffdog?)...so there's quite a selection bias there.

Here is a chart of the number of goalies drafted in each round and the aggregate SV% of that round's goalies:
View attachment 1042799

They stopped drafting after round 7 in 2005, so it's a small sample.

The scatter plot of all goalies drafted since 2000 doesn't show much in the way of a strong trend in terms of SV%.
View attachment 1042801

Very interesting. Unsurprisingly the distribution is tighter the earlier rounds but then becomes wider the further into the draft you go. Pretty interesting the later rounds produced the higher save percentages. I wonder if that has to do with a smaller sample size for those specific goalies.

 

[Bye Bye Blueston]

FYI I've been putting out shift-by-shift videos and highlights all season long if you want to dive into video on guys the Jets might be interested in.

Prospect Shifts

We feature shift by shift and highlight videos of hockey players eligible for upcoming NHL drafts!

www.youtube.com

These are great!

 

[Gm0ney]

Very interesting. Unsurprisingly the distribution is tighter the earlier rounds but then becomes wider the further into the draft you go. Pretty interesting the later rounds produced the higher save percentages. I wonder if that has to do with a smaller sample size for those specific goalies.

Yeah that's just a weird small sample outlier - 2012 7th rounder Marek Langhamer put up a .944 in 2 games (looks like he was just relieving a shelled starter in both).

Edit: there are some higher and lower small sample outliers that were cut off - 4 guys with a perfect 1.000 SV% and some <.800, <.700, <.600!:

 

[Daximus]

I feel like undrafted goalies probably skew results even further as they are likely coming into the NHL after having proven themselves in pro leagues in Europe. They come in more developed as a result so the success rate looks a little better. Thanks for doing that @Gm0ney

 

[Buffdog]

Here are some numbers - all drafted goalies (and undrafted goalies who played a game) since 2000:

Rnd	Drafted	Wins	SV%	Success	Success Rate
1	32	3732	.898	16	50%
2	72	3090	.904	23	32%
3	86	2843	.883	18	21%
4	80	1494	.892	10	13%
5	108	1107	.910	8	7%
6	104	797	.909	8	8%
7	90	1233	.891	6	7%
8	17	490	.853	2	12%
9	13	574	.912	2	15%
Undrafted	31	2794	.905	20	65%

Success for the purposes of this table is defined as 100 games played, so the bar isn't too high (if you set it at 200 games, the R1 success rate drops from 50% to 34%).

The Undrafted success rate is going to be skewed because the set of undrafted goalies who never played in the NHL includes a lot of players (including Buffdog?)...so there's quite a selection bias there.

Here is a chart of the number of goalies drafted in each round and the aggregate SV% of that round's goalies:
View attachment 1042799

They stopped drafting after round 7 in 2005, so it's a small sample.

The scatter plot of all goalies drafted since 2000 doesn't show much in the way of a strong trend in terms of SV%.
View attachment 1042801

Excellent work as usual...

Just to clarify my point all along...

Goalies taken in the 1st round are probably most likely to be "safe" bets in that they will most likely have NHL careers (although as we've seen with Logan Stanley, there can be an attachment to a 1st round pick that gives them more chances to succeed than maybe they deserve)

But what I'm saying is that a goalie chosen in later rounds is more likely to become elite than a skater chosen in the same position. In in a 2012 re-draft, Helle goes 1st overall. A jump like that for a goalie is way more common than any other position, which is why teams are more likely to use later round picks on them

 

[CanMerc]

I like the idea of a big C with top end speed like Murtagh

No thanks….need to completely stay away from USNDTP players

 

[Daximus]

Excellent work as usual...

Just to clarify my point all along...

Goalies taken in the 1st round are probably most likely to be "safe" bets in that they will most likely have NHL careers (although as we've seen with Logan Stanley, there can be an attachment to a 1st round pick that gives them more chances to succeed than maybe they deserve)

But what I'm saying is that a goalie chosen in later rounds is more likely to become elite than a skater chosen in the same position. In in a 2012 re-draft, Helle goes 1st overall. A jump like that for a goalie is way more common than any other position, which is why teams are more likely to use later round picks on them

It's all relative really though. Lets be honest the 2012 draft is such a weak draft that a goalie going 1OA wouldn't surprise anyone. Vasi also came out of that draft though at #19th overall and I think you'd likely have a pretty strong debate for him to go 1OA..

 

[hockeyarena]

Ravensbergen and Pradel are the only ones tall enough to even consider picking early.

 

[ps241]

So the Athletic did a "if we were GM's" mock draft with Pronman, Wheeler, and Bultman rotating picks. When it got to #28 Wheeler was drafting for the Jets and he took Benjamin Kindel from Calgary who is a 5'10" 176 pound centre that put up a very impressive 99 points.

 

[surixon]

So the Athletic did a "if we were GM's" mock draft with Pronman, Wheeler, and Bultman rotating picks. When it got to #28 Wheeler was drafting for the Jets and he took Benjamin Kindel from Calgary who is a 5'10" 176 pound centre that put up a very impressive 99 points.

I'd be shocked if he's still there when we draft.