2025 NHL DRAFT

[Buffdog]

So where is your cutoff? We should only use the 97th or later pick to draft a goalie? What if we really like one but hes projected to go top 10 and we have a pick in that range?

Or better yet maybe we should just never draft a goalie. So many good ones are just completely unsigned so perhaps we just sign random goalies out of the K, Liiiga or Sweden and pray to the hockey gods they pan out.

You're getting worse than Wolfhouse at putting words into my mouth lol

It's like any other position. You have a list based on whatever criteria you value. If the top goalie that you want is available, and you value him more than BPA at other positions, you pick him

But where it is a little different is that there is likely to be a goalie available in later rounds with the attributes you value vs a forward or a defenceman, and that guy's likelihood of becoming a starter is closer to that of an earlier pick vs other positions

 

[ps241]

These college kids are starting to become like Russians. They want to sign and be guaranteed a roster spot right out of the gate and skip the AHL. But the only way to do that is to play on a bad team. Lightning probably told Howard he's going to need to spend a year or two in the A before he gets his shot.

McGroarty had the same intentions but he found out the grass isn't always greener and ended up in the AHL anyways after a piss poor showing with the big club.

It's hard to know how a prospect will respond to playing in Winnipeg, but I think it's fair to guess that there's a higher risk that a prospect will force his way out of Winnipeg than other markets, all else being equal. The risk might not be as high for a late-1st, but remember that Fox forced his way to NYR. So unless they are sure about the superiority of a pick (like Connor at #17) I could see the Jets steering away from drafting players heading to college, especially Americans. Why take the risk?

Moreover, there definitely has been an emphasis on the "want to be here" vibe recently, so I think that might also influence draft patterns.

I think at the end of the day I am a bit suspicious because the 3 big guys that have done the shake downs were all teammates on the 21-22 USNDT so they were probably buddies. Other teammates like W Smith, Nazar, and Cooley fast tracked to the NHL so when Gauthier got slow played a bit by Philly he was out and he handed the playbook for how to force your way out to McG, then Howard. Yea Rutger might not have liked Winnipeg but both Philly and Tampa are desirable markets so the one thing Tampa, Philly, and Winnipeg had in common is they were not going to put these kids into the NHL fast enough for their liking.

I think that was a pretty poisonous group and I think rather than ignore all US college players I might just wait and see if these guys kick started things for all high end US College guys or whether this was just a spoiled rotten crew.

Also important to remember both Philly and Winnipeg were able to trade their US diaper babies for solid assets in return so it wasn’t a walk for nothing scenario.

 

[Daximus]

You're getting worse than Wolfhouse at putting words into my mouth lol

It's like any other position. You have a list based on whatever criteria you value. If the top goalie that you want is available, and you value him more than BPA at other positions, you pick him

But where it is a little different is that there is likely to be a goalie available in later rounds with the attributes you value vs a forward or a defenceman, and that guy's likelihood of becoming a starter is closer to that of an earlier pick vs other positions

So in other words take the goalie you think is the best player at their relative draft position at the pick you have.

 

[Buffdog]

So in other words take the goalie you think is the best player at their relative draft position at the pick you have

And you'll notice that very rarely will teams so that in the first round... and that's for a reason

Goalies don't develop in a manner that's as linear or predictable as skaters. Thus the "voodoo"

 

[Daximus]

And you'll notice that very rarely will teams so that in the first round... and that's for a reason

Goalies don't develop in a manner that's as linear or predictable as skaters. Thus the "voodoo"

I think things are getting better. Teams are starting to figure out what to look for in goalies. It only took them 50 some years to start to figure it out.

The voodoo portion comes from those who try to design predictive models for drafting and those predictive models fail miserably at identifying goalies. Because being a goaltender is about more than your stats. Most of those predictive models don't do one thing. Actually watch the players. It's a lazy excuse to not actually watch the players and identify with your own eyes which ones have the necessary ability to become good.

 

[Buffdog]

I think things are getting better. Teams are starting to figure out what to look for in goalies. It only took them 50 some years to start to figure it out.

The voodoo portion comes from those who try to design predictive models for drafting and those predictive models fail miserably at identifying goalies. Because being a goaltender is about more than your stats. Most of those predictive models don't do one thing. Actually watch the players. It's a lazy excuse to not actually watch the players and identify with your own eyes which ones have the necessary ability to become good.

So it just turns out that we agree all along lol

 

[surixon]

And you'll notice that very rarely will teams so that in the first round... and that's for a reason

Goalies don't develop in a manner that's as linear or predictable as skaters. Thus the "voodoo"

I'm starting to wonder if teams just don't value the goalie position as high as us fans do. As you mention they aren't often drafted as high as skaters. They best goalies don't have contract values in line with the best players at the other positions and they don't bring back near the same haul in trades as other positional players.

 

[WolfHouse]

So where is your cutoff? We should only use the 97th or later pick to draft a goalie? What if we really like one but hes projected to go top 10 and we have a pick in that range?

Or better yet maybe we should just never draft a goalie. So many good ones are just completely unsigned so perhaps we just sign random goalies out of the K, Liiiga or Sweden and pray to the hockey gods they pan out.

Personally id use the next 3 5th rounders on goalies...

 

[Buffdog]

I'm starting to wonder if teams just don't value the goalie position as high as us fans do. As you mention they aren't often drafted as high as skaters. They best goalies don't have contract values in line with the best players at the other positions and they don't bring back near the same haul in trades as other positional players.

If you pick the highest rated forward or the highest rated defenseman in the draft, chances are that they will have very good NHL careers (in the top 5% of all the players drafted the same year)

The same isn't true for goalies... as we've discussed here. Plus, you're maybe able to get who turns out to the the best goalie in the draft in rounds 3-7. I think that's the reason goalies aren't taken higher... plus, as @Daximus states, they can be hard to evaluate in Junior if you don't spend time watching them closely

It can be boiled down to the stregth of correlation between Jinior point totals and future success as NHLers for skaters (strong) and Junior golie stat totals and future success as an NHL goalie (weaker)

 

[Gm0ney]

I think things are getting better. Teams are starting to figure out what to look for in goalies. It only took them 50 some years to start to figure it out.

The voodoo portion comes from those who try to design predictive models for drafting and those predictive models fail miserably at identifying goalies. Because being a goaltender is about more than your stats. Most of those predictive models don't do one thing. Actually watch the players. It's a lazy excuse to not actually watch the players and identify with your own eyes which ones have the necessary ability to become good.

I think the problem is that there are no good predictive models for goalies of draft age (because you need such a large sample of shots against to get a prediction you can have confidence in).

There are pretty good predictive models for skaters. And scouts have always been better at predicting skater talent than goalie talent. As skater predictions improved with analytics supporting scouting (and vice versa), teams now have more confidence with their skater draft picks.

But goalies are still a crap shoot...

You can actually see evidence of the rising confidence in skaters over goalies at the draft. From 2000-2011 there were 31 goalies taken in the top 32 picks of those 12 drafts; 2007 was the only year there wasn't at least one goalie taken.

In the 13 drafts since then, only 5 goalies have gone in the first 32 picks (Samsonov in 2015, Oettinger in 2017, Knight in 2019, Askarov in 2020, and Cossa and Wallstedt both in 2021); 9 of the 13 drafts had no goalies go in the top 32 picks.

The last goalie picked in the Top 10 was Carey Price, 5th overall in 2005 - that was 20 year ago! From 2000-2004 there were 7 goalies taken in the top 10 picks (DiPietro 1st, Krahn 9th, Leclaire 8th, Blackburn 10th, Lehtonen 2nd, Fleury 1st, Montoya 6th).

Goalies were always voodoo. Analytics can't help for draft age goalies, but it can for draft age skaters. Teams have moved away from throwing away draft capital on goalies because skaters are a wiser investment.

 

[Daximus]

So it just turns out that we agree all along lol

Yeah I think this draft is relatively weak by the time it gets to 28 and Ravensbergen is about as good as any other pick we are going to make in that range.

 

[Whileee]

If the Jets don't re-sign Ehlers, I won't be surprised if they use their #28 overall as a trade chip to add a skilled forward.

 

[Daximus]

If the Jets don't re-sign Ehlers, I won't be surprised if they use their #28 overall as a trade chip to add a skilled forward.

It's likely to take 28++ to get anything that could be good enough to play in our top 6. I'd imagine some combination of Yager, Lambert, Chibrikov or Barlow would have to be included.

 

[surixon]

It's likely to take 28++ to get anything that could be good enough to play in our top 6. I'd imagine some combination of Yager, Lambert, Chibrikov or Barlow would have to be included.

Barlow was apparently on the table at the deadline. Wonder what a 1st, Barlow and a throw in like Heinola/Stanley could get.

 

[Daximus]

Barlow was apparently on the table at the deadline. Wonder what a 1st, Barlow and a throw in like Heinola/Stanley could get.

That would be a pretty nice package for a high end rental.

 

[surixon]

That would be a pretty nice package for a high end rental.

Yeah, hard to know what gets good cost controlled assets.

They may need to try for a buy low candidate like a Dach.

 

[Daximus]

Yeah, hard to know what gets good cost controlled assets.

They may need to try for a buy low candidate like a Dach.

Yeah it's gonna be tough to get anyone who is cemented in the league without dangling a pretty high end piece.

 

[Jets 31]

What i find hilarious is never draft a goalie high , don't get as much for a goalie as a player in a trade but if you don't have goaltending you don't win shit .

 

[Daximus]

What i find hilarious is never draft a goalie high , don't get as much for a goalie as a player in a trade but if you don't have goaltending you don't win shit .

Or you need to have the absolute best of the best players in the world aka McDavid/Drai or MacK/Makar to overcome terrible goaltending.

Winnipeg is a market that is unlikely to ever get a player of that level without an obscene amount of luck. If we don't have good goaltending we are likely to be shit but probably not shit enough to be in the running for a top tier player.

 

[surixon]

I don't have an issue drafting a goalie at 28th in this draft. By the time they are pro eligible DiVincentiis will have 3 pro years and Milic 4. The org will know what they have by then and there will be room on the Moose for the new goalie.

I probably should get up-to-date on some of the players in our range but from what I've seen there isn't a lot that is jumping out to me.

 

[Daximus]

I don't have an issue drafting a goalie at 28th in this draft. By the time they are pro eligible DiVincentiis will have 3 pro years and Milic 4. The org will know what they have by then and there will be room on the Moose for the new goalie.

I probably should get up-to-date on some of the players in our range but from what I've seen there isn't a lot that is jumping out to me.

It drops off pretty hard IMO around 15/16 or so. For what it's worth there's also Jack Ivankovic, a goalie out of Ontario. He was a 2nd string at the WJC and started for the U18 Canada squad where he posted some good numbers at the U18's and Hlinka. But he's also 6'0 so he's going to be fighting an uphill battle to be an NHL starter from the jump. He's less of a system type of goalie and more pure athleticism. He's also really really aggressive when challenging shooters which could end up making him a really really good goalie or get him completely lit up at the top level.

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

One center, one D and a goalie please

Don't really need a goalie. Comrie was fine as a backup. Not his fault he didn't play more.

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

How many times does a 5th round skater pick become the best at his position on the planet like Helle did?

You mention Rinne, Bob, King Henry... those aren't guys that "turned out OK"... they're HHOF bound. That just doent happen as often with non-goaltenders picked super late or not at all

So maybe goalies aren't "voodoo" per se, but there is a level of unpredictability that's involved that isn't with other positions

The difference between an outstanding goalie and an inadequate goalie is very small. Tiny variations in a goalie's play from one season to the next can appear huge but in truth they are small. A GAA of 2 is fantastic. A GAA of 3 is terrible. That is 50% more goals but it is only 1 fewer save out of 30-35 shots.

That's why goalies are voodoo.

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

It's hard to know how a prospect will respond to playing in Winnipeg, but I think it's fair to guess that there's a higher risk that a prospect will force his way out of Winnipeg than other markets, all else being equal. The risk might not be as high for a late-1st, but remember that Fox forced his way to NYR. So unless they are sure about the superiority of a pick (like Connor at #17) I could see the Jets steering away from drafting players heading to college, especially Americans. Why take the risk?

Moreover, there definitely has been an emphasis on the "want to be here" vibe recently, so I think that might also influence draft patterns.

Headed to college might be hard to avoid in future. How many of the good players will NOT be headed to NCAA?

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

What your trying to tell me is there is absolutely no difference between picking a highly rated goalie from any other random goalie. Which is essentially throwing darts at a wall and hoping one sticks.

I think you are overstating it. You don't just take random goalies in the later rounds. You still scout them and make your best guess of which ones will turn out.

Generally speaking, I would not spend a 1st on a goalie. I don't think the odds of him being better than the best goalie you could get in the 3rd rd justify the use of the pick.

Drafting a goalie would be influenced by the state of the goalie corps in your system. Jets currently have the best regular season goalie in the business and a couple of prospects who have shown promise. They also have only 5 picks in this and next year's drafts after several years of picking fewer than 7 players. I would not likely pick a goalie this year before the 6th rd.