2025 NHL DRAFT

[Daximus]

Yeah it's getting a little crazy with these guys from the USNTDP.

The Jets have had some good luck with Connor, Samberg, etc but for the amount of darts thrown that way in the draft, it has been met with a lot of headaches, too.

You got guys like Isaac Howard refusing to sign in Tampa of all places now, too. It's become a little bit of an epidemic in the league and as long as these guys have the rights they do in the draft, it won't get any better soon.

These college kids are starting to become like Russians. They want to sign and be guaranteed a roster spot right out of the gate and skip the AHL. But the only way to do that is to play on a bad team. Lightning probably told Howard he's going to need to spend a year or two in the A before he gets his shot.

McGroarty had the same intentions but he found out the grass isn't always greener and ended up in the AHL anyways after a piss poor showing with the big club.

 

[Channelcat]

It's not just us, it seems other teams are routinely now dealing with college kids demanding out. Some prospect just did it to Tampa.

I have to wonder if there will be pressure to change the rights to college based players if this continues to become more prevalent.

I'd be pretty hesitant on drafting a kid out of the US that plans the college route given how things are trending.

Yup, It's not a Winnipeg specific issue. The tax free states, Texas, FLA, Washington, Nevada have an obvious advantage. Very odd to see it in Tampa!

 

[surixon]

Yup, It's not a Winnipeg specific issue. The tax free states, Texas, FLA, Washington, Nevada have an obvious advantage. Very odd to see it in Tampa!

Seems ro be as @Daximus stated that it's more about guaranteed roster spots then location.

I do hope it bites more prospects like McGroarty in the ass. Sometimes the org knows more about development then the individual player. Now Rutger spent a year in the AHL and gets to play for an org that will bottom out over the next few years.

 

[WolfHouse]

One center, one D and a goalie please

 

[Buffdog]

Blackwood had a strong 2nd half with Colorado. Markstrom is still a decent goalie on a bad team and Gibson was among the best at his position when the ducks were good.

I think there is also a bit of looking at decent to good players on bad teams and writing them off. I remember everyone saying Seth Jones was done. Here he is on a good Florida team looking pretty solid again.

We can go further back and look at top golaies from the 2010s.

Fleury - 1st
Quick - 72nd
Price - 5th
Rask - 21st
Luongo - 4th
Crawford - 52nd
Howard - 64th
Anderson - 73rd
Dubnyk - 14th

That's 9 of the top 15 goalies by wins in the 2010s in the top 3 rounds. Rinne was a 8th rounder, Lundqvist a 8th rounder, Holtby 4th, Miller 5th, Bobrovsky and Niemi undrafted.

It's been proven time and again that the majority of good goalies come out of the top 3 rounds. Sure there are some that come out of later rounds or undrafted but it's just as much of a crap shoot getting those guys to turn out as it is grabbing a top forward or D out of later rounds. You just generally pick a lot less of them.

Goalies are voodoo is just a cop out for people who stat watch and can't pick out goalies based on stats.

How many times does a 5th round skater pick become the best at his position on the planet like Helle did?

You mention Rinne, Bob, King Henry... those aren't guys that "turned out OK"... they're HHOF bound. That just doent happen as often with non-goaltenders picked super late or not at all

So maybe goalies aren't "voodoo" per se, but there is a level of unpredictability that's involved that isn't with other positions

 

[Whileee]

It's hard to know how a prospect will respond to playing in Winnipeg, but I think it's fair to guess that there's a higher risk that a prospect will force his way out of Winnipeg than other markets, all else being equal. The risk might not be as high for a late-1st, but remember that Fox forced his way to NYR. So unless they are sure about the superiority of a pick (like Connor at #17) I could see the Jets steering away from drafting players heading to college, especially Americans. Why take the risk?

Moreover, there definitely has been an emphasis on the "want to be here" vibe recently, so I think that might also influence draft patterns.

 

[surixon]

How many times does a 5th round skater pick become the best at his position on the planet like Helle did?

You mention Rinne, Bob, King Henry... those aren't guys that "turned out OK"... they're HHOF bound. That just doent happen as often with non-goaltenders picked super late or not at all

So maybe goalies aren't "voodoo" per se, but there is a level of unpredictability that's involved that isn't with other positions

From 2011 ro 2019 the Jets hit on the same % of goalies after round 3 as skaters (1/7) vs (4/29).

Granted Helle is miles better then any skater that we selected that made it but atleast in our sample size it shows there is a similar % in terms of making it to the NHL.

So I definitely think there is something to your argument. Talent at all positions is easier identified and selected early.

Also @Buffdog you get elite players at all positions selected later or not at all. Panarin, Kucherov, Datsyuk, Zetterberg, Kaprizov etc.

 

[Gm0ney]

Blackwood had a strong 2nd half with Colorado. Markstrom is still a decent goalie on a bad team and Gibson was among the best at his position when the ducks were good.

I think there is also a bit of looking at decent to good players on bad teams and writing them off. I remember everyone saying Seth Jones was done. Here he is on a good Florida team looking pretty solid again.

We can go further back and look at top golaies from the 2010s.

Fleury - 1st
Quick - 72nd
Price - 5th
Rask - 21st
Luongo - 4th
Crawford - 52nd
Howard - 64th
Anderson - 73rd
Dubnyk - 14th

That's 9 of the top 15 goalies by wins in the 2010s in the top 3 rounds. Rinne was a 8th rounder, Lundqvist a 8th rounder, Holtby 4th, Miller 5th, Bobrovsky and Niemi undrafted.

It's been proven time and again that the majority of good goalies come out of the top 3 rounds. Sure there are some that come out of later rounds or undrafted but it's just as much of a crap shoot getting those guys to turn out as it is grabbing a top forward or D out of later rounds. You just generally pick a lot less of them.

Goalies are voodoo is just a cop out for people who stat watch and can't pick out goalies based on stats.

Wins is a team stat...

Here are all the goalies taken in the 1st round since 2000:
DiPietro
Krahn
Leclaire
Blackburn
Bacashihua
Munro
Lehtonen
Ward
Toivonen
Fleury
Montoya
Dubnyk
Schwarz
Schneider
Price
Rask
Bernier
Helenius
Varlamov
Irving
(Chet) Pickard
McCollum
(Jack) Campbell
Visentin
Vasilevskiy
Subban
Samsonov
Oettinger
Knight
Askarov
Cossa
Wallstedt

A couple of Hall of Famers, a few starters, a few backups, and a bunch of nobodies. I believe Hellebuyck is about to have more Vezinas than everyone on this list combined.

So a bit voodoo?

 

[Buffdog]

From 2011 ro 2019 the Jets hit on the same % of goalies after round 3 as skaters (1/7) vs (4/29).

Granted Helle is miles better then any skater that we selected that made it but atleast in our sample size it shows there is a similar % in terms of making it to the NHL.

So I definitely think there is something to your argument. Talent at all positions is easier identified and selected early.

Also @Buffdog you get elite players at all positions selected later or not at all. Panarin, Kucherov, Datsyuk, Zetterberg, Kaprizov etc.

A team carries 7X more forwards than goalies, so you're bound to find a few late round gems

My only point is that if you were to look at where the best goalies come from in the draft and the best forwards/defense, a much much higher percentage of goalies are later picks

 

[MelikeJets]

This is the first draft in many years that doesn't excite me. I won't watch but will have notifications set on my phone just in case Chevy makes a 1st round trade to pick in top 15.

 

[RabidOne]

One center, one D and a goalie please

One bourbon, one scotch, and one beer?

 

[Daximus]

How many times does a 5th round skater pick become the best at his position on the planet like Helle did?

You mention Rinne, Bob, King Henry... those aren't guys that "turned out OK"... they're HHOF bound. That just doent happen as often with non-goaltenders picked super late or not at all

So maybe goalies aren't "voodoo" per se, but there is a level of unpredictability that's involved that isn't with other positions

I think the it levels out because the amount of picks for a goalie are generally much lower compared to skaters. Skaters have like a 31 to 1 pick rate over goalies in some drafts.

 

[Daximus]

Wins is a team stat...

Here are all the goalies taken in the 1st round since 2000:
DiPietro
Krahn
Leclaire
Blackburn
Bacashihua
Munro
Lehtonen
Ward
Toivonen
Fleury
Montoya
Dubnyk
Schwarz
Schneider
Price
Rask
Bernier
Helenius
Varlamov
Irving
(Chet) Pickard
McCollum
(Jack) Campbell
Visentin
Vasilevskiy
Subban
Samsonov
Oettinger
Knight
Askarov
Cossa
Wallstedt

A couple of Hall of Famers, a few starters, a few backups, and a bunch of nobodies. I believe Hellebuyck is about to have more Vezinas than everyone on this list combined.

So a bit voodoo?

Hellebuyck is such an outlier though, banking on drafting a 3 time Vezina winner in the 4th round every generation is actual insanity. Goalies are voodoo because I can't look at a stat sheet and predict which one will hit so lets never draft one higher than we've ever drafted Hellebuyck because that's a waste of a pick. You're basically throwing darts at a board blindfolded and hoping to hit a bullseye.

 

[Daximus]

From 2011 ro 2019 the Jets hit on the same % of goalies after round 3 as skaters (1/7) vs (4/29).

Granted Helle is miles better then any skater that we selected that made it but atleast in our sample size it shows there is a similar % in terms of making it to the NHL.

So I definitely think there is something to your argument. Talent at all positions is easier identified and selected early.

Also @Buffdog you get elite players at all positions selected later or not at all. Panarin, Kucherov, Datsyuk, Zetterberg, Kaprizov etc.

Yeah when you factor in the much higher pick rate. You probably hit on skaters outside the top 3 rounds just as often as you hit on goalies. And the same could be likely said for undrafted sign rates on goalies vs. skaters.

Goalies are voodoo is just a lazy argument from stat watchers because analytics hasn't been able to identify which goalies will hit for them.

 

[ps241]

Cole Reschny, Victoria Royals, the next Seth Jarvis.

Put up really solid numbers in his draft year (love it when guys are the top scorer on their team). What is your scouting report on him? He was ranked #37 in the Black book but that was in February my guess is he will be a riser. I see him listed more at 5’10.5”. He also just turned 18 in April so he is really young for the draft. How is his speed?

 

[Buffdog]

I think the it levels out because the amount of picks for a goalie are generally much lower compared to skaters. Skaters have like a 31 to 1 pick rate over goalies in some drafts.

You're making my point for me

31X more Skaters get taken in, say, rounds 4-7... but a very, very tiny percentage of them will become as impactful in the NHL as the bunch of thr goalies mentioned. If anything, there should be way fewer successful late round goalie picks since they only make up 1/32 of the total picks at that stage

To me, it's less about stat watching and more to do with the fact the tools you need to be successful at the NHL level aren't the same as the ones that a goalie needs to be successful in junior - specifically hockey IQ (ability to read the play and know where the puck is likely to go within the structure that your team plays)

 

[Daximus]

You're making my point for me

31X more Skaters get taken in, say, rounds 4-7... but a very, very tiny percentage of them will become as impactful in the NHL as the bunch of thr goalies mentioned. If anything, there should be way fewer successful late round goalie picks since they only make up 1/32 of the total picks at that stage

To me, it's less about stat watching and more to do with the fact the tools you need to be successful at the NHL level aren't the same as the ones that a goalie needs to be successful in junior - specifically hockey IQ (ability to read the play and know where the puck is likely to go within the structure that your team plays)

So your point is just throw darts at the wall in the 4th round and later and hope one sticks? Glad you're not running this teams drafting.

 

[Buffdog]

So your point is just throw darts at the wall in the 4th round and later and hope one sticks? Glad you're not running this teams drafting.

Where in the world did I say that?

But just to be clear. When you're picking in rounds 4-7, that's not far off from what you're doing

 

[surixon]

Cole Reschny, Victoria Royals, the next Seth Jarvis.

He's on my wish list but I doubt he's still there when we pick.

 

[Daximus]

Where in the world did I say that?

But just to be clear. When you're picking in rounds 4-7, that's not far off from what you're doing

What your trying to tell me is there is absolutely no difference between picking a highly rated goalie from any other random goalie. Which is essentially throwing darts at a wall and hoping one sticks.

 

[Buffdog]

What your trying to tell me is there is absolutely no difference between picking a highly rated goalie from any other random goalie. Which is essentially throwing darts at a wall and hoping one sticks.

I have never said that either

All that I have said is that lower selected goalies are more likely to become elite than lower selected skaters

Basically, draft position is a better indicator of future success for skaters than it is for goalies

I'm not sure how you extrapolated that to throwing darts

 

[Daximus]

I have never said that either

All that I have said is that lower selected goalies are more likely to become elite than lower selected skaters

Basically, draft position is a better indicator of future success for skaters than it is for goalies

I'm not sure how you extrapolated that to throwing darts

Do you have the data to back that up?

 

[Buffdog]

Do you have the data to back that up?

Do you know many 5th round selected centres who became the best on their planet at their position? The post earlier in the thread talked about Bob, Rinne, etc.. there is a disproportionate number of late/not selected goalies to do so. Hasek was a 10th round pick lol

As you stated... 31X more Skaters get selected than goalies. So there should be 31 defensemen who are 5th round picks that have won multiple Norris Trophies

2 of the past 10 Vezina winners were selected in the 1st round, vs 8/10 Norris winners and 9/10 Hart winners

 

[Channelcat]

Hellebuyck is such an outlier though, banking on drafting a 3 time Vezina winner in the 4th round every generation is actual insanity. Goalies are voodoo because I can't look at a stat sheet and predict which one will hit so lets never draft one higher than we've ever drafted Hellebuyck because that's a waste of a pick. You're basically throwing darts at a board blindfolded and hoping to hit a bullseye.

Helly is a prime example of what can happen in the minor hockey hierarchy. Some guys just aren't going to get a shot if they don't have the right connections or if they are coming out of division 2 high school etc . Helly couldn't even get a look from the USHL and wasn't even drafted into the NAHL, but got in as a walk on basically. That pedigree followed him right through the NHL draft even though he was an outstanding goaltender. Props to the Jets for finding him!

 

[Daximus]

Do you know many 5th round selected centres who became the best on their planet at their position? The post earlier in the thread talked about Bob, Rinne, etc.. there is a disproportionate number of late/not selected goalies to do so. Hasek was a 10th round pick lol

As you stated... 31X more Skaters get selected than goalies. So there should be 31 defensemen who are 5th round picks that have won multiple Norris Trophies

2 of the past 10 Vezina winners were selected in the 1st round, vs 8/10 Norris winners and 9/10 Hart winners

So where is your cutoff? We should only use the 97th or later pick to draft a goalie? What if we really like one but hes projected to go top 10 and we have a pick in that range?

Or better yet maybe we should just never draft a goalie. So many good ones are just completely unsigned so perhaps we just sign random goalies out of the K, Liiiga or Sweden and pray to the hockey gods they pan out.