2025 NHL DRAFT

[Daximus]

Logan Hensler pops up on a lot of draft rankings around the end of the first round.

6'2", 200 lb RHD at U of Wisconsin

I like him but man I'm starting to sour on drafting Americans so much. 50/50 on whether they want out before they even hit UFA.

 

[Buffdog]

Couple of later round guys from the WHL I would like to see them pick up are Jonas Woo,Owen Martin and Mathew Gard

I played junior hockey with Owen's dad, and I know the Woos really well. I talked to his dad a while ago and he figures Jonas might not have the size to get picked. Poor kid never grew... he thr man when he was younger

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

I'm talking about their draft year, since the Jets don't have a way of seeing into the future

They were both chosen in the 2023 draft... Barlow at 16th and Ritchie at 27th

In 2022-23:
Barlow 59GP 46G 33A 79P
Ritchie: 59GP 24G 35A 59P

Yup. C over W but that is a big difference in points and it is all goals.

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

Highest we have ever drafted a goalie is 2nd round 59th overall. Of all of the goalies we have drafted only 1, maybe 2 have truly panned out so far. I think taking a swing at 28th overall wouldn't be to much of an issue. Who knows if he's on their radar. Not having a 2nd this year makes it tougher as well to take a goalie in the 1st.

If they did I wouldn't be opposed to it, but would understand if they would have reservations about it.

Goalies are hard to evaluate. A lot drafted high bust and a lot drafted late, like Helle, excel.

 

[Hammer Slammer]

FYI I've been putting out shift-by-shift videos and highlights all season long if you want to dive into video on guys the Jets might be interested in.

Prospect Shifts

We feature shift by shift and highlight videos of hockey players eligible for upcoming NHL drafts!

www.youtube.com

 

[Lomac]

trade down and pick up a couple of 2nds and a 4th/5th, whatever the value works out to be.

 

[Daximus]

Goalies are hard to evaluate. A lot drafted high bust and a lot drafted late, like Helle, excel.

Generally most starters come out of the top 3 rounds. Guys like Helle, Rinne, Lundqvist are generally the exceptions like drafting a good skater late.

Goalies aren't that hard to evaluate, you just have to watch them and if you know what to look for you can see who has the technical abilities to become good. Most goalies don't just come out of nowhere, they generally are good at all levels. The secondary part is whether they have the mental fortitude to play at the highest level. The hard part for a lot of people is evaluating a good goalie on a bad team.

 

[Gil Fisher]

I like him but man I'm starting to sour on drafting Americans so much. 50/50 on whether they want out before they even hit UFA.

Hermantown or bust. Not a fan of these urban prep school types.

 

[Gil Fisher]

Couple of later round guys from the WHL I would like to see them pick up are Jonas Woo,Owen Martin and Mathew Gard

Gard seems to have a 2nd round grade.

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

Generally most starters come out of the top 3 rounds. Guys like Helle, Rinne, Lundqvist are generally the exceptions like drafting a good skater late.

Goalies aren't that hard to evaluate, you just have to watch them and if you know what to look for you can see who has the technical abilities to become good. Most goalies don't just come out of nowhere, they generally are good at all levels. The secondary part is whether they have the mental fortitude to play at the highest level. The hard part for a lot of people is evaluating a good goalie on a bad team.

Top 3 rds yes, not 1st rd. Though 28 would have been 2nd rd not so many years ago.

 

[surixon]

My preliminary assessment is we will have the choice of some high skilled players with potential limiting factors like size in Schmidt/Reschny/Kindel, that goalie @Daximus mentioned.

I'd probably by trying to target the most skilled guy left even if on the small side.

 

[Joe Hallenback]

I like Blake Fiddler. The Big right shot D from Edmonton. Plays a very similar game to Samberg and his offensive numbers were decent this year.

Kindel is very good as well but I bet he is gone by the time we pick.
Jack Nesbitt is a possibility really solid player his skating needs work
Adam Benak might be a low key high end guy. Tremendous skill but undersized.
Lakovic,Bear and Hensler might all be around were we pick too.

 

[trebendan]

I like Blake Fiddler. The Big right shot D from Edmonton. Plays a very similar game to Samberg and his offensive numbers were decent this year.

Kindel is very good as well but I bet he is gone by the time we pick.
Jack Nesbitt is a possibility really solid player his skating needs work
Adam Benak might be a low key high end guy. Tremendous skill but undersized.
Lakovic,Bear and Hensler might all be around were we pick too.

Button has Fiddler rated in the 2nd round, so maybe we can grab him at 28.

 

[lanky]

Button has Fiddler rated in the 2nd round, so maybe we can grab him at 28.

McKenzie's list is the one that you can draw inferences from (Fiddler at 21 in Jan). Button is just a guy with opinions.

 

[Bender Duster]

I like Blake Fiddler. The Big right shot D from Edmonton. Plays a very similar game to Samberg and his offensive numbers were decent this year.

Kindel is very good as well but I bet he is gone by the time we pick.
Jack Nesbitt is a possibility really solid player his skating needs work
Adam Benak might be a low key high end guy. Tremendous skill but undersized.
Lakovic,Bear and Hensler might all be around were we pick too.

I’d be surprised if Bear is still around at 28 but if he is I’d love to see the Jets take him!

 

[Gm0ney]

Goalies are only voodoo because you can't look at a stat sheet and say this guy could be an NHLer based on his numbers. You actually have to get eyes on them, watch how they play, how they handle pressure. That throws a lot of armchair stat based scouting for a loop because they don't really know what makes a good goalie just that they can't use their numbers to predict who will become a good goalie. The fact of the matter is most of the top tier goalies in the league are found within the top 3 rounds.

Vasilevsky - 19th
Oettinger - 26th
Markstrom - 31st
Demko - 36th
Gibson - 39th
Blackwood - 42nd
Stolarz - 45th
Gustavsson - 55th
Hill - 76th
Sorokin - 78th
Binnington - 88th

Fans think the Jets just throw darts at the board hoping one sticks but they do their due diligence when scouting for a goalie. They will do the same with Ravensberg and if they deem him to be good enough I don't see why they wouldn't take him.

I think there's a bit of survivorship bias or something going on here. Kind of a cherry picked list too - top tier = Markstrom? Gibson? Blackwood?!?

I think Vasilevskiy and Oettinger might be the only goalies who went at the top of their respective classes that was actually the best goalie from that draft (at least since the Jets returned).

Bobrovsky and Logan Thompson were both undrafted. Frederik Andersen was drafted in the 7th round, not signed, and re-drafted in the 3rd round 2 years later as a 20 year old. Shesterkin was taken 118th overall (after Kraapo Kahkonen and a bunch of other guys you've never heard of).

 

[Gm0ney]

I like him but man I'm starting to sour on drafting Americans so much. 50/50 on whether they want out before they even hit UFA.

Minnesotans seem to fit in pretty well here. It's the Michiganders we're 50/50 with (Trouba and Copp / Connor and Hellbuyck).

 

[Gm0ney]

I played junior hockey with Owen's dad, and I know the Woos really well. I talked to his dad a while ago and he figures Jonas might not have the size to get picked. Poor kid never grew... he thr man when he was younger

Stanley-Woo could be the poor man's Enstrom-Buff!

 

[Mooche]

I played junior hockey with Owen's dad, and I know the Woos really well. I talked to his dad a while ago and he figures Jonas might not have the size to get picked. Poor kid never grew... he thr man when he was younger

I remember going to some Ice games when he got called up out of AAA. I was blown away at some of the plays he was making at his age/size. He stepped in at 15 and was extremely impressive in the WHL on a good team.

It's a shame he never grew because he really read and processed the game very well.

 

[Buffdog]

I remember going to some Ice games when he got called up out of AAA. I was blown away at some of the plays he was making at his age/size. He stepped in at 15 and was extremely impressive in the WHL on a good team.

It's a shame he never grew because he really read and processed the game very well.

The irony is that his brother, Jett, was the first kid at his age to grow, and stood out because of his physical maturity (I think he was a top 5 pick in the bantam draft).... but then everyone caught up/passed him and he's looking like an AHL lifer at this point

 

[Daximus]

I think there's a bit of survivorship bias or something going on here. Kind of a cherry picked list too - top tier = Markstrom? Gibson? Blackwood?!?

I think Vasilevskiy and Oettinger might be the only goalies who went at the top of their respective classes that was actually the best goalie from that draft (at least since the Jets returned).

Bobrovsky and Logan Thompson were both undrafted. Frederik Andersen was drafted in the 7th round, not signed, and re-drafted in the 3rd round 2 years later as a 20 year old. Shesterkin was taken 118th overall (after Kraapo Kahkonen and a bunch of other guys you've never heard of).

Blackwood had a strong 2nd half with Colorado. Markstrom is still a decent goalie on a bad team and Gibson was among the best at his position when the ducks were good.

I think there is also a bit of looking at decent to good players on bad teams and writing them off. I remember everyone saying Seth Jones was done. Here he is on a good Florida team looking pretty solid again.

We can go further back and look at top golaies from the 2010s.

Fleury - 1st
Quick - 72nd
Price - 5th
Rask - 21st
Luongo - 4th
Crawford - 52nd
Howard - 64th
Anderson - 73rd
Dubnyk - 14th

That's 9 of the top 15 goalies by wins in the 2010s in the top 3 rounds. Rinne was a 8th rounder, Lundqvist a 8th rounder, Holtby 4th, Miller 5th, Bobrovsky and Niemi undrafted.

It's been proven time and again that the majority of good goalies come out of the top 3 rounds. Sure there are some that come out of later rounds or undrafted but it's just as much of a crap shoot getting those guys to turn out as it is grabbing a top forward or D out of later rounds. You just generally pick a lot less of them.

Goalies are voodoo is just a cop out for people who stat watch and can't pick out goalies based on stats.

 

[Daximus]

Minnesotans seem to fit in pretty well here. It's the Michiganders we're 50/50 with (Trouba and Copp / Connor and Hellbuyck).

Roslovic also wanted out eventually and McGroarty. We managed to hang onto Buff and Wheeler but it's getting tiresome drafting kids who want out. We don't have this issue with any other nationality of player.

 

[surixon]

Roslovic also wanted out eventually and McGroarty. We managed to hang onto Buff and Wheeler but it's getting tiresome drafting kids who want out. We don't have this issue with any other nationality of player.

It's not just us, it seems other teams are routinely now dealing with college kids demanding out. Some prospect just did it to Tampa.

I have to wonder if there will be pressure to change the rights to college based players if this continues to become more prevalent.

I'd be pretty hesitant on drafting a kid out of the US that plans the college route given how things are trending.

 

[Mooche]

Roslovic also wanted out eventually and McGroarty. We managed to hang onto Buff and Wheeler but it's getting tiresome drafting kids who want out. We don't have this issue with any other nationality of player.

Yeah it's getting a little crazy with these guys from the USNTDP.

The Jets have had some good luck with Connor, Samberg, etc but for the amount of darts thrown that way in the draft, it has been met with a lot of headaches, too.

You got guys like Isaac Howard refusing to sign in Tampa of all places now, too. It's become a little bit of an epidemic in the league and as long as these guys have the rights they do in the draft, it won't get any better soon.

 

[Daximus]

It's not just us, it seems other teams are routinely now dealing with college kids demanding out. Some prospect just did it to Tampa.

I have to wonder if there will be pressure to change the rights to college based players if this continues to become more prevalent.

I'd be pretty hesitant on drafting a kid out of the US that plans the college route given how things are trending.

If they shore up the college rights they would have to do it to the CHL rights as well. CHL players can also opt out and sign anywhere at 21 years old. Just most never pass up the money.