2025 NHL DRAFT Thread

[Chapin Landvogt]

Looking at Nashville, they are currently tracking to be Hagens range. Does Lamoriello hook up with Trotz and actually leverage his relationships at some point?

I'm thinking Noah Dobson would be a very interesting piece for Nashville given they are looking to compete and don't have anything on the right side of their backend now or in the pipeline.

Dobson + COL 1st + ??? for the right to draft James Hagens.

There are def pieces to swing a deal or pull the wool over trotz eye to land the long island kid.

WAY over valuing Hagens

Dobson ALONE, Maybe for that pick and an add from Nashville like Schaeffer. We already picked up one assist-first center prospect.

Dobson
Jeffries
for
Nashville's #1
Schaeffer

And frankly I prefer Frondell anyhow.

Gotta think Nashville can always be a trade partner.

I don't really know where the relationship between Lou and Trotz is, but yes, Trotz knows a number of players on this team better than most people, Dobson not the least of which.

One thing I'd say is pretty clear though - if Nashville is in a spot to take Hagens and the Isles are a few spots back and Lou knows he's not getting Dobson penned to any type of deal that makes long-term sense for the Isles, I don't think Trotz does anything that doesn't start with Dobson AND this year's 1st. If he's taking back an uncertain or highly expensive righty Dman - albeit a top commodity - he's gonna be smart enough to demand that it only means he drops back a few spots in the draft as well.

Highly possible!

However, he'd surely understand that the Isles would have to get a bit more out of this as well, so @leeroggy is not far off with a prospect like Schaeffer coming our way as part of that. If I were Lou, I'd also look for them to throw in the rights of a KHL Dman named Chistyakov. Nashville is once again loaded with D prospects, but this guy (now 23) is gonna be NHL-ready when his contract ends after next season and that franchise isn't gonna be able to keep and find work for all these guys.

This is an interesting scenario, in any case.

 

[saintunspecified]

Gotta think Nashville can always be a trade partner.

If Nashville is in a position to draft Hagens, wouldn't they draft him? Would a guy who talks about decisions off the puck, and knowing where they need to be off it like Trotz does then deal a pick that would be Hagens?

I don't think so. And if it were to happen, whatever NYI would have to give up to get it done would be way too much.

 

[Chapin Landvogt]

If Nashville is in a position to draft Hagens, wouldn't they draft him? Would a guy who talks about decisions off the puck, and knowing where they need to be off it like Trotz does then deal a pick that would be Hagens?

I don't think so. And if it were to happen, whatever NYI would have to give up to get it done would be way too much.

Naturally, that could be the case. Of course.

The thing is...

Let's say they're drafting 3rd and we're drafting 8th.

Schaeffer and Misa go 1st and 2nd.

If Trotz' scouting staff says "Hey, we have Edstrom, Wood, Stiga, and Nilsson down the middle right now. And we love Frondell, Eklund, O'Brien, and Mrtka every bit as much as Hagens.", then he could naturally find himself contemplating such a move where he gets Dobson and his staff still likely gets one of the guys they'd advocate for, 'cause Macqueen and Martone are in that top 8 equation as well.

The NHL has proven time and time and time again, for better or worse, that thoughts of this nature do come into play for management groups.

And even the proverbial BPA is often not the same for every scouting staff.

 

[saintunspecified]

If Trotz' scouting staff says "Hey, we have Edstrom, Wood, Stiga, and Nilsson down the middle right now.
And we love Frondell, Eklund, O'Brien, and Mrtka every bit as much as Hagens."

That's precisely what seems unlikely.

contemplating such a move where he gets Dobson and his staff still likely gets one of the guys they'd advocate for

Wait, so a move where Nashville gets Dobson for NYI to move up 5 spots? That's what I meant what I said, "whatever NYI would have to give up to get it done would be way too much." And that would make 0 sense for Nashville unless the deal involves a third team. Otoh, Hagens makes lots of sense for them.

Of the teams that might be in a position to draft Hagens, only San Jose would be a trade fit with NYI. If Dobson moves the other way, there are lots of pieces that could do the evening out. But then you'd better believe they'd also be fielding calls from Philly or Boston (unless either move up) for that spot as well.

Put it all together, NYI's best bet to draft Hagens is by getting lucky in the lotto. That's unlikely, but many times more likely than the other scenarios.

 

[Chapin Landvogt]

If Nashville is in a position to draft Hagens, wouldn't they draft him? Would a guy who talks about decisions off the puck, and knowing where they need to be off it like Trotz does then deal a pick that would be Hagens?

The Hockey News and McKeen's have him at 3.

Sportsnet has him at 4.

Button has him at 6.

Pretty much all others anywhere from 1-3.

His season has ended. He can't build on it unless he's named to Team USA for the Men's WC. Could happen! Happened to Jack Hughes back in his draft year, if I remember correctly.

But even then, if he doesn't raise some eyebrows against men, that could lead to some classical short-term negativity (warranted or not, it clearly happens at times).

Meanwhile, Frondell and Desnoyers have been consistently rising, as has O'Brien.

The U18 Worlds hasn't happened yet and now it looks like Misa will be there for Canada. He could reboost whatever has happened that had him so ineffective in the OHL playoffs.

In any case, I see absolutely no guarantee whatsoever at this point that the teams picking top 5 will see Hagens as a surefire top 5 player in this draft by draft weekend.

There could be a half dozen reasons why particularly Trotz and the Predators would like to go a different route.

I don't think so. And if it were to happen, whatever NYI would have to give up to get it done would be way too much.

As this is about Dobson (and you talked about that in your follow-up post too), please look at what I wrote again, namely "If Nashville is in a spot to take Hagens... and Lou knows he's not getting Dobson penned to any type of deal that makes long-term sense for the Isles,...".

Then also see that I also wrote "However, he'd (Trotz) surely understand that the Isles would have to get a bit more out of this as well, so @leeroggy is not far off with a prospect like Schaeffer coming our way as part of that."

I don't know what most Islander fans are thinking, but I'm pretty certain that the most ridiculous move you can make with Dobson right now is to simply get him - hopefully not via arbitration - re-upped on a 1-year bridge deal leading him into unrestricted free agency.

As I wrote recently, IMHO Lou MUST either sign him to a long-term contract at expected market value like right after the season OR move him, prolly needing to allow the dealing partner to come to talking terms with him first.

He's incredibly valuable and yet, Lou's in a real pickle here with this situation.

I am inclined to believe that Dobson could very well be used to move up in this draft. If not, I'm not quite sure Lou's in a contractual situation that allows him to say swap Dobson for a Shane Pinto or William Eklund or something like that.

But yes, if the route is taken to have Dobson be part of a move up, I think the link to Nashville could very well be there. As a possibility. As a theoretical option. Because Trotz would certainly have a concrete opinion on how much he'd want Dobson on his team - if at all.

***
The semantics behind a "Why would they do that" or "He'd never do this" or "If so, then that's overpayment" is relatively moot.

Trading history in the NHL has been filled with one trading partner having over- or undervalued certain players/assets and gotten burned along the way.

It's also filled with a bunch of moves that simply helped both teams. We've seen and heard many times from Lou that he doesn't believe in ripping off a trade partner. He targets "fair deals" so that business can be done with those people again down the road.

And guys like Trotz and Guerin have had close working relationships with Lou before.

 

[boredmale]

In terms of Trading Dobson for the pick to get Hagens, only way it works is if a team gets a signed Dobson. No way will a team take a chance on a guy who is 1 year away from UFA and can screw them by taking his qualifying offer on July 1.

This means you have to trade specifically for the 3rd pick, but even then a team might be reluctant just incase Schaeffer or Misa fall to 3. And let's hypothetically say Hagens falls to 4,5 or 6 I don't think those teams would be willing to take that chance easier since they wouldn't have had the time to negotiate with Dobson

 

[saintunspecified]

In terms of Trading Dobson for the pick to get Hagens, only way it works is if a team gets a signed Dobson. No way will a team take a chance on a guy who is 1 year away from UFA and can screw them by taking his qualifying offer on July 1.

This means you have to trade specifically for the 3rd pick, but even then a team might be reluctant just incase Schaeffer or Misa fall to 3. And let's hypothetically say Hagens falls to 4,5 or 6 I don't think those teams would be willing to take that chance easier since they wouldn't have had the time to negotiate with Dobson

Yeah, I think it's a pipe dream. I don't believe the Hagens drop. I think there's a clear top 3 in the draft. I've seen enough of Martone not to believe the hype. Maybe I have not seen enough of the Swedes, but there won't be any context to make judgments that could go against the ones I've already made.

What do y'all think about this Cullen Potter kid? If NYI draft in the 11-13 range? I think in this draft at that range, all the available players will be missing something. This kid turned 18 during his first year of college, at 5'9", 170#'s, so I know he's got courage, and can't be stupid. He's got to be the most explosive skater in the draft. He does that one jig, explode toward the net, shoot off the front foot move that I love. I don't see the point of taking the route he took (getting in a year of college when most kids with his dob would have done another year of USDP) without a plan to get a degree. And at his size, doing 2 years in the NCAA makes sense. But imo he's going to explode in the NCAA next season. Obv he's undersized, but he's got the quickness the undersized need to succeed.

 

[saintunspecified]

The U18 Worlds hasn't happened yet and now it looks like Misa will be there for Canada. He could reboost whatever has happened that had him so ineffective in the OHL playoffs.

One thing I've learned is that it's so friggin' hard to make judgments based on CHL play alone. It's too friggin' chaotic. I've watched a few where I try to imagine how a guy like Hagens (and his type - of which we've seen a few in the recent past) would even look playing what looks like pond hockey relatively to the structured games they generally play.

It's definitely a thing with Team Canada Jr. teams. They often don't have their year's 1-2 best players, and their chaotic style makes it difficult to determine their players' talent level.

 

[Chapin Landvogt]

What do y'all think about this Cullen Potter kid? If NYI draft in the 11-13 range? I think in this draft at that range, all the available players will be missing something. This kid turned 18 during his first year of college, at 5'9", 170#'s, so I know he's got courage, and can't be stupid. He's got to be the most explosive skater in the draft. He does that one jig, explode toward the net, shoot off the front foot move that I love. I don't see the point of taking the route he took (getting in a year of college when most kids with his dob would have done another year of USDP) without a plan to get a degree. And at his size, doing 2 years in the NCAA makes sense. But imo he's going to explode in the NCAA next season. Obv he's undersized, but he's got the quickness the undersized need to succeed.

Without having delved too much into his actual game, a few things pop out at me at this juncture:
- How much does his skating and skillset compensate for the size? One critique of Hagens are that folks aren't thrilled about his being 'just' 5'11" and 176 lbs. Potter is 2 inches smaller and reportedly app. 8 pounds lighter. Does he have the build to alter that with time? Islanderville should still be a wee bit shellshocked by the Iskhakov experiment, even if I'm thinking that Potter has better wheels.
- Potter is still eligible for the upcoming U18 Worlds. It takes place in Texas and he was with the Dallas Stars Elite program two seasons ago. He'd surely be psyched to play there. But will he be added to the team? I think the USNTDP was planning with him this season. Did the program feel slighted by his going to college early? In addition, there are couple of doozies in no less than the OHL who would be available for that tourney. They can only take so many.
- If he's not there, will fellow US prospects like McKinney and Murtagh become more interesting?
- He really seems to be all over the place in the rankings (for entertainment purposes) just now. Interesting, to say the least:

For that 11-14 range, I'd like to see if O'Brien, Mrtka, or Spence would still be around.

 

[saintunspecified]

Without having delved too much into his actual game, a few things pop out at me at this juncture:
- How much does his skating and skillset compensate for the size? One critique of Hagens are that folks aren't thrilled about his being 'just' 5'11" and 176 lbs. Potter is 2 inches smaller and reportedly app. 8 pounds lighter. Does he have the build to alter that with time? Islanderville should still be a wee bit shellshocked by the Iskhakov experiment, even if I'm thinking that Potter has better wheels.

Potter plays center but imo he is going to be a wing. And he's not at all a game controller like Hagens or Keller before him. Reminds me more of a smaller version of Connor.

He is much quicker than Iskhakov, and is also much more efficient with the puck. He doesn't look like he'll get wrecked like Iskhakov did on several occasions. I agree 100% it would be a big help to see him in worlds.

- Potter is still eligible for the upcoming U18 Worlds. It takes place in Texas and he was with the Dallas Stars Elite program two seasons ago. He'd surely be psyched to play there. But will he be added to the team? I think the USNTDP was planning with him this season. Did the program feel slighted by his going to college early?

God, I hope they wouldn't exclude him for that reason. How petty would that be? Is the purpose of the program the program, or the players? He went to play college hockey, not move to a competitor. I can't imagine he wouldn't make the team based on merit.