2025 NHL DRAFT Thread

[Deputy McRizzy]

They should just get McDavid

I think you're joking but the Hawks rebuild wouldn't be anywhere near far along to be a consideration for him.

Kyle Connor is basically the same exact age, American, and might be happy to chase money to a team like Chicago to get out of Winnipeg/Canada.

 

[dj Mahoney]

I wouldn't touch Marner even for 11mil.

Marner signing will be more for the Kids to develop . He'll take a lot of pressure off them . Guys like Donato are useless.

 

[Hawkaholic]

I think you're joking but the Hawks rebuild wouldn't be anywhere near far along to be a consideration for him.

Kyle Connor is basically the same exact age, American, and might be happy to chase money to a team like Chicago to get out of Winnipeg/Canada.

You dont need an entire team of great skaters, and you dont need great skaters with great skaters on a line. Robertson would work great with Bedard or Nazar. He worked great with Hintz (top skater) and with Johnston (not the greatest skater)

 

[SavBigMoneyAtBedards]

markets are better at making predictions than any one draft pundit

Has anyone done a rundown of how well the betting odds predicted the last top 10 picks (or top 5) in recent drafts?

Like, have the odds proved correct in 7/10 recent drafts for #3 overall?
6/10 for #4, and so on?
Someone must keep track of these things.

#1 and #2 are usually pretty predictable so I leave them out.

 

[Deputy McRizzy]

You dont need an entire team of great skaters, and you dont need great skaters with great skaters on a line. Robertson would work great with Bedard or Nazar. He worked great with Hintz (top skater) and with Johnston (not the greatest skater)

Entire team, no, but I'm a firm believer your best players need to be good to great skaters.

I think a Bedard/Robertson line gets stuck in their own zone and they end up gassed trying to flip the ice.

 

[Hawkaholic]

Entire team, no, but I'm a firm believer your best players need to be good to great skaters.

I think a Bedard/Robertson line gets stuck in their own zone and they end up gassed trying to flip the ice.

So explain how Robertson, not a great skater, is one of Dallas's best players. Same goes for Tkachuk in Florida.

And yes, Bedard will always be stuck in his own zone until he learns to play better defense.

 

[ColbyChaos]

The Ny Islanders seems close to us next year. More like top 8 .

Ilya likely rebounds and they didn’t lose anyone good besides Nelson who is already old. Isles probably get better if anything making trading #3 for their first next year just dumb. A pick in the teens next year isn’t worth pissing away #3

 

[SavBigMoneyAtBedards]

Robertson has been stapled to Roope Hintz's wing.
Hintz is one of the fastest skaters in the NHL.

He'd probably do just fine with Nazar.

 

[Deputy McRizzy]

So explain how Robertson, not a great skater, is one of Dallas's best players. Same goes for Tkachuk in Florida.

And yes, Bedard will always be stuck in his own zone until he learns to play better defense.

Obviously Dallas doesn't view him as one of their best players if they are willing to trade him. Not to mention they went out and got Rantenen. If he was so amazing they wouldn't be making moves like that and not keeping their homegrown talent.

Tkachuk brings so much more to the game than Robertson does. He's great defensively and one of the best agitators in the league. They're not even remotely comparable.

Playing Bedard with other players who are bad on defense is an unnecessary handcuff for him. If you're going to spend $10-12M on a guy I wouldn't do it on someone who is slow and poor defensively. Find someone who compliments him and can help cover for his weaknesses.

 

[statswatcher]

Has anyone done a rundown of how well the betting odds predicted the last top 10 picks (or top 5) in recent drafts?

Like, have the odds proved correct in 7/10 recent drafts for #3 overall?
6/10 for #4, and so on?
Someone must keep track of these things.

#1 and #2 are usually pretty predictable so I leave them out.

it's actually a bit of a pain in the ass to find these numbers in retrospect because the numbers vary by book (edit: i suspect they probably intentionally try to wipe this info to keep people from doing exactly what i'm doing and auditing how accurate their predictions are historically). i looked into a little bit when this conversation went going and decided not to waste my time. it basically works out the way you said, they usually f*** up by 3. last year silayev was the odd's on favorite to go 3rd. some books had demidov at 2. 2023 fantili was the favorite to go 2nd. in 2022 basically all the books had wright going first overall, and failing that at least top 3. it only gets murkier from there.

 

[Toews2Bickell]

it's actually a bit of a pain in the ass to find these numbers in retrospect because the numbers vary by book (edit: i suspect they probably intentionally try to wipe this info to keep people from doing exactly what i'm doing and auditing how accurate their predictions are historically). i looked into a little bit when this conversation went going and decided not to waste my time. it basically works out the way you said, they usually f*** up by 3. last year silayev was the odd's on favorite to go 3rd. some books had demidov at 2. 2023 fantili was the favorite to go 2nd. in 2022 basically all the books had wright going first overall, and failing that at least top 3. it only gets murkier from there.

just because they're the favorite doesn't mean the odds imply 100% probability of happening. someone said in 2023 Levshunov was the favorite at -200 or something

 

[statswatcher]

just because they're the favorite doesn't mean the odds imply 100% probability of happening. someone said in 2023 Levshunov was the favorite at -200 or something

do you have a viral marketing side gig with draftkings or some shit?

 

[Toews2Bickell]

do you have a viral marketing side gig with draftkings or some shit?

?

 

[ello]

Pass on Robertson from me too, like others have said you don’t just move on from someone who is 2 years removed from a 100 point season who’s that young unless they see sort of limitation with him. USA also kept him off 4 Nations.

Personally I’ve never seen him drive play in the playoffs either

 

[PCAisBest]

If Robertson is actually avaliable, and all it took was the 3rd in this draft and some sugaring, there's no way you don't make that deal, good lord...

So you are getting a great NHL player, who suddenly becomes the best player on your team, no offense to Bedard fans, and all it takes is a draft pick and a couple prospects?

As for the draft, I see Mrtka moving up considerably and possibly into the top ten.

 

[clydesdale line]

Wheeler staying on the Frondell train.

 

[Wally1112pac]

Scott Wheeler did a player comp article today.

"Cullen Potter, C, 5-foot-9.75 (Arizona State University)​

Player comparable: Frank Nazar/Jeff Skinner​

I don’t think Nazar or Skinner are perfect. Nazar’s a little more competitive/interior driven than Potter, but Nazar went 13th, and Potter is going to go later than that. There are similarities in size, skating and handling (Potter might actually be even faster than Nazar, which is saying something)."

Anton Frondell, C, 6-foot-1.25 (Djurgardens IF)​

Player comparable: Higher-end Anton Lundell/Brayden Schenn​

I’ve had people toss around Aleksander Barkov and Anze Kopitar, but I don’t think we’re talking about that level of defensive conscience/impact. They’re perennial Selke favorites and two of the best two-way centers in the history of the game. I thought about Sean Couturier, but that didn’t feel like a fit either. I think Lundell or Schenn with a bigger shot and a little more offense (Schenn has been a high-50s guy who broke 60 twice and hit 70 once, and I think Frondell can be a consistent 60s guy) feels closer.

 

[Kevin Musto]

Scott Wheeler did a player comp article today.

"Cullen Potter, C, 5-foot-9.75 (Arizona State University)​

Player comparable: Frank Nazar/Jeff Skinner​

I don’t think Nazar or Skinner are perfect. Nazar’s a little more competitive/interior driven than Potter, but Nazar went 13th, and Potter is going to go later than that. There are similarities in size, skating and handling (Potter might actually be even faster than Nazar, which is saying something)."

Anton Frondell, C, 6-foot-1.25 (Djurgardens IF)​

Player comparable: Higher-end Anton Lundell/Brayden Schenn​

I’ve had people toss around Aleksander Barkov and Anze Kopitar, but I don’t think we’re talking about that level of defensive conscience/impact. They’re perennial Selke favorites and two of the best two-way centers in the history of the game. I thought about Sean Couturier, but that didn’t feel like a fit either. I think Lundell or Schenn with a bigger shot and a little more offense (Schenn has been a high-50s guy who broke 60 twice and hit 70 once, and I think Frondell can be a consistent 60s guy) feels closer.

Compared Potter to the GOAT

He should go 1st overall

 

[RememberTheRoar]

Scott Wheeler did a player comp article today.

"Cullen Potter, C, 5-foot-9.75 (Arizona State University)​

Player comparable: Frank Nazar/Jeff Skinner​

I don’t think Nazar or Skinner are perfect. Nazar’s a little more competitive/interior driven than Potter, but Nazar went 13th, and Potter is going to go later than that. There are similarities in size, skating and handling (Potter might actually be even faster than Nazar, which is saying something)."

Anton Frondell, C, 6-foot-1.25 (Djurgardens IF)​

Player comparable: Higher-end Anton Lundell/Brayden Schenn​

I’ve had people toss around Aleksander Barkov and Anze Kopitar, but I don’t think we’re talking about that level of defensive conscience/impact. They’re perennial Selke favorites and two of the best two-way centers in the history of the game. I thought about Sean Couturier, but that didn’t feel like a fit either. I think Lundell or Schenn with a bigger shot and a little more offense (Schenn has been a high-50s guy who broke 60 twice and hit 70 once, and I think Frondell can be a consistent 60s guy) feels closer.

He compared Misa to Hossa:

Misa was the player I had the toughest time with in this exercise. I think there’s a little Dylan Larkin in his profile. I think there’s a little Sam Reinhart in his profile (though he’s a much better skater than Reinhart was). I think there’s some early years Paul Stastny to him when Stastny was a 70-plus point guy, but again, he’s a better skater and will have a better career and a high peak in all likelihood. I think there’s some Logan Couture, but again, I didn’t love it. And then I started going back in time and arrived at Hossa, which felt too lofty as a Hall of Famer but fit for me as a player type. Both are 6-foot-1 and are skilled, but can play in different ways. I’ve always admired Hossa’s career for the different chapters it had and the different players he was over time. I think Misa could become different things depending on his linemates, his role and his usage. It’s still not perfect, but it was the closest I came.

 

[The Dark Knight]

Saw an idea in the Hawks open to trading 3 thread on the main board that was a 3-team trade with the Kraken and the Habs. Made me think of another idea that’s simplifying that offer to just us and the Kraken. 3 and either a prospect or 25/34 for Wright and 8. Would anyone do this?

 

[x Tame Impala]

Hard to justify trading the 3rd pick, just get the best guy available with the pick and go forward to our last tank year in the McKenna draft

 

[Toews2Bickell]

Saw an idea in the Hawks open to trading 3 thread on the main board that was a 3-team trade with the Kraken and the Habs. Made me think of another idea that’s simplifying that offer to just us and the Kraken. 3 and either a prospect or 25/34 for Wright and 8. Would anyone do this?

The trade would basically be Wright and 1 of Martone, Hagens, Frondell, Desnoyers, O'Brien, McQueen, Brady Martin, etc...if you like that group then there is a decent chance one or both players end up as good or better than who is at 3, so it could be something that makes sense...Wright might just be a 55-60 point player by himself, then you have the lotto ticket at 8

 

[Kevin Musto]

He compared Misa to Hossa:

Misa was the player I had the toughest time with in this exercise. I think there’s a little Dylan Larkin in his profile. I think there’s a little Sam Reinhart in his profile (though he’s a much better skater than Reinhart was). I think there’s some early years Paul Stastny to him when Stastny was a 70-plus point guy, but again, he’s a better skater and will have a better career and a high peak in all likelihood. I think there’s some Logan Couture, but again, I didn’t love it. And then I started going back in time and arrived at Hossa, which felt too lofty as a Hall of Famer but fit for me as a player type. Both are 6-foot-1 and are skilled, but can play in different ways. I’ve always admired Hossa’s career for the different chapters it had and the different players he was over time. I think Misa could become different things depending on his linemates, his role and his usage. It’s still not perfect, but it was the closest I came.

I'm high on Misa, but that's an awful comp

 

[Beukeboom Fan]

Smarter to overpay Marner than give up young assets. 16.5 X 7 yrs . He avoids hits (not always good thing) but he will age really well . CAP is going up a lot .

Not paying B1tch Marner that IMO. Cap going up or not. That's the mistake the Leafs did with the Tavares contract.

 

[Hawkaholic]

Obviously Dallas doesn't view him as one of their best players if they are willing to trade him. Not to mention they went out and got Rantenen. If he was so amazing they wouldn't be making moves like that and not keeping their homegrown talent.

Tkachuk brings so much more to the game than Robertson does. He's great defensively and one of the best agitators in the league. They're not even remotely comparable.

Playing Bedard with other players who are bad on defense is an unnecessary handcuff for him. If you're going to spend $10-12M on a guy I wouldn't do it on someone who is slow and poor defensively. Find someone who compliments him and can help cover for his weaknesses.

Robertson has literally been their best player for the last 4 or 5 years. You can say whatever you want, but it's a fact.

And I wasn't comparing Robertson to Tkachuk, I was saying Tkachuk is also a bad skater, bit he's one of Florida's best players. Remember how you said your great players can't be bad skaters?