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2025 NHL DRAFT Thread

Who should we pick 3rd overall (assuming Schaefer and Misa are gone)?

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bwanajamba said:
To me O'Brien is both the most aesthetically pleasing and most frustrating playmaker in the top 10. I guess the question is whether he projects to make more of the beautiful and creative passes that pop on film and less of the wasteful and questionable decisions. I think there's more substance to the playmaking of Misa/Martone/Hagens.

I also wish O'Brien showed more at even strength. By the eye test he just doesn't push play towards the net at 5v5. This bears out in the numbers. He had a split of 9 PP goals/23 ES goals - 41 PP assists/25 ES assists = 50 PP points/48 ES points. The splits for some other guys:

Misa: 21 PPG/41 ESG - 23 PPA/49 ESA = 44 PPP/90 ESP
Martone: 7 PPG/30 ESG - 22 PPA/39 ESA = 29 PPP/69 ESP
Hagens: 2PPG/9ESG - 5PPA/21 ESA = 7 PPP/30 ESP (seem low? BC as a team scored 18 power play goals all year with all that talent. Pretty unbelievable. And they only gave up 10 on the PK)
Desnoyers: 6 PPG/29 ESG - 13 PPA/36 ESA = 19 PPP/65 ESP

Maybe we are punishing O'Brien here for being on a league-best power play, which he certainly helped to create, but it was only 1.2% better than Saginaw's, for example, and the other top scorers on his team didn't have such PP-heavy splits.

The trend for O'Brien extends somewhat to last year too- 8 PPG/5 ESG - 19 PPA/32 ESA = 27 PPP/37 ESP. Not quite as powerplay-reliant but close enough to make me think it may not just be a quirk of this season.

You could argue that being reliant on the PP to produce isn't inherently bad, but I think this exercise captures a frustration I have when watching him.

Sorry to be a nerd.
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All valid.

I give O'Brien leeway because he is younger than all those guys and the most physically immature.

Two years ago when he was drafted in the OHL, he was 6'0" 148lbs.

He's now 6'2" 172lbs.

This is a growing kid.

Desnoyers, for example, was drafted at 6'1" 163lbs. He's now 6'1" 178lbs. Less growth there.
 
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Kevin Musto said:
Not familiar with the source.

It wouldn't surprise me though cause Davidson keeps talking about being aggressive, and we know he'll do it cause he tried last year with Demidov.

The question is, does he do it for Schaefer or Misa? If you're making that move, you're dead sure of the guy you want.
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I mean ...the book hasn't been written, but I would imagine the Jackets would take the Hawks offer
of the 4th pick for this pick years back. Interesting question is ....would the Hawks ?

I would imagine when teams look at McQueen (not the same injury...perhaps worse???)
they think of Lindstrom.
 
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Kevin Musto said:
All valid.

I give O'Brien leeway because he is younger than all those guys and the most physically immature.

Two years ago when he was drafted in the OHL, he was 6'0" 148lbs.

He's now 6'2" 172lbs.

This is a growing kid.

Desnoyers, for example, was drafted at 6'1" 163lbs. He's now 6'1" 178lbs. Less growth there.
Click to expand...

Looking at O'Brien, his frame doesn't look like it will carry that much more weight.
 
Kevin Musto said:
Not familiar with the source.

It wouldn't surprise me though cause Davidson keeps talking about being aggressive, and we know he'll do it cause he tried last year with Demidov.

The question is, does he do it for Schaefer or Misa? If you're making that move, you're dead sure of the guy you want.
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I put up smoke that Schaefer is the guy you made the deal for and see if you can get San Jose to blink to cough up a bounty (despite their fanbase claims they are pretty set at LHD...they need/want Schaefer probably more than we do Misa). If Grier don't bite, I draft BPA in Schaefer and sorting out the D prospects gets a little more complicated. Lots of good fits at F in the '26 draft.
 
bwanajamba said:
To me O'Brien is both the most aesthetically pleasing and most frustrating playmaker in the top 10. I guess the question is whether he projects to make more of the beautiful and creative passes that pop on film and less of the wasteful and questionable decisions. I think there's more substance to the playmaking of Misa/Martone/Hagens.

I also wish O'Brien showed more at even strength. By the eye test he just doesn't push play towards the net at 5v5. This bears out in the numbers. He had a split of 9 PP goals/23 ES goals - 41 PP assists/25 ES assists = 50 PP points/48 ES points. The splits for some other guys:

Misa: 21 PPG/41 ESG - 23 PPA/49 ESA = 44 PPP/90 ESP
Martone: 7 PPG/30 ESG - 22 PPA/39 ESA = 29 PPP/69 ESP
Hagens: 2PPG/9ESG - 5PPA/21 ESA = 7 PPP/30 ESP (seem low? BC as a team scored 18 power play goals all year with all that talent. Pretty unbelievable. And they only gave up 10 on the PK)
Desnoyers: 6 PPG/29 ESG - 13 PPA/36 ESA = 19 PPP/65 ESP

Maybe we are punishing O'Brien here for being on a league-best power play, which he certainly helped to create, but it was only 1.2% better than Saginaw's, for example, and the other top scorers on his team didn't have such PP-heavy splits.

The trend for O'Brien extends somewhat to last year too- 8 PPG/5 ESG - 19 PPA/32 ESA = 27 PPP/37 ESP. Not quite as powerplay-reliant but close enough to make me think it may not just be a quirk of this season.

You could argue that being reliant on the PP to produce isn't inherently bad, but I think this exercise captures a frustration I have when watching him.

Sorry to be a nerd.
Click to expand...
O’Brien wasn’t playing with Lardis or Patrick Thomas at 5v5. Certainly could’ve expected him to drive his own line more but it’s fairly common knowledge that he’s a bit of a project and considering his depployment and lack of skill around him at 5v5 I think his production is fair.
 
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dj Mahoney said:
To me Brady Martin will be a gem . Not sure what Kyle & Co. think, but he looks like a future Team Captain playoff leader . Maybe a 25 G 35 A . A better version of Mike Peca ? I like him better than O'Brien. A nice interview with Brady .
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I am a huge fan of watching Martin skate like a monster all over the ice checking everyone who touches the puck into the boards.
 
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Trade #3, #25, and Reichel for #1. Would that be enough? Hell, throw in #34 too if you have to. We’ve already got a glut of bottom 6 prospects. Boisvert, Vanacker, Hayes, Greene, Savoie, Spellacy, Ludwinski, Mustard, Kantserov, Pridham, Misiak. Would adding Gastrin and Moore (or whoever) make you feel any better about our prospect pool? We need elite talent now. With such a gap between Misa and the other forwards it’s a no brainer
 
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CapitalistInfidel said:
Trade #3, #25, and Reichel for #1. Would that be enough? Hell, throw in #34 too if you have to. We’ve already got a glut of bottom 6 prospects. Boisvert, Vanacker, Hayes, Greene, Savoie, Spellacy, Ludwinski, Mustard, Kantserov, Pridham, Misiak. Would adding Gastrin and Moore (or whoever) make you feel any better about our prospect pool? We need elite talent now. With such a gap between Misa and the other forwards it’s a no brainer
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Not all of them are going to be bottom 6. Let’s keep the obvious good ones and the potential home run high risk players like Spellacy. The others don’t move the needle on a trade.

I’d be good moving the 25th and 3rd and Reichel, but only if the Hawks are taking Schaefer. Otherwise the possibility that any of the other forwards end up as good as Misa is reasonably likely in this draft. Not worth trading up for the risk.
 
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pvr said:
Not all of them are going to be bottom 6. Let’s keep the obvious good ones and the potential home run high risk players like Spellacy. The others don’t move the needle on a trade.

I’d be good moving the 25th and 3rd and Reichel, but only if the Hawks are taking Schaefer. Otherwise the possibility that any of the other forwards end up as good as Misa is reasonably likely in this draft. Not worth trading up for the risk.
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I don' t see a lot of risk in Spellacy, nor do I see the potential for home-run pick. Unless a home run is a good checking/energy forward. That's what he'll be in the league.
 
CapitalistInfidel said:
Trade #3, #25, and Reichel for #1. Would that be enough? Hell, throw in #34 too if you have to. We’ve already got a glut of bottom 6 prospects. Boisvert, Vanacker, Hayes, Greene, Savoie, Spellacy, Ludwinski, Mustard, Kantserov, Pridham, Misiak. Would adding Gastrin and Moore (or whoever) make you feel any better about our prospect pool? We need elite talent now. With such a gap between Misa and the other forwards it’s a no brainer
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Isles say no.
 
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Beukeboom Fan said:
You're using the confirmation bias because it supports your case with two Hawks pick that look like amazing values right now. The problem is that you aren't guaranteed to get another Rinzel at 25th OA. That range of picks have about a 50/50 chance to turn into a quality NHL player.

What about Marleau instead of Cleary and Jones or Heatley instead of Yakupov and Vorobiev?

I would make that deal, because I really like Misa, but wouldn't expect the Sharks to do so. I wouldn't be disappointed in the names we're talking about at 3.
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That´s fair. But I don´t see the big difference picking second or third this year. I like Misa too but there is no guarantees that he will be better player eventually than let say Hagens. Just like there is no sure thing at 25th pick but there is always a possibility. I just think that trading away another first round pick to jump one spot in this years draft isn´t a good idea. This is not like 2004 where there was Ovechkin and Malkin and after that Barker, Ladd etc.
 
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