Is that more ridiculous than saying a guy can ride a player's coat tails to a P/GP when only 36 players achieved that this season?
2025 NHL DRAFT Thread
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Yes. Comfortably more ridiculous. I'm not even saying there's no world where Desnoyers doesn't top out as a 50 point player but putting that low of a ceiling on any forward prospect who is getting serious top 5 consideration from NHL scouts is pure hallucination.
TheFridge
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I don't get what Kurashev being a one-year wonder has to do with Desnoyer's projection. Do you think Kurashev is a 50-point wing? No. Maybe Desnoyers has a season or two where he's more than a 50-point centrte. Would you qualify him as being more than that if every other year that's what he is?
Tyler Arnason scored 50+ in the league when scoring was way down. So did Kyle Calder. They were tweener players that never replicated those seasons. Aberrations happen.
So, saying a completely unflashy kid stands a good chance to be someone who tops out roughly around a team's 4th best scoring forward is "comfortably more ridiculous" than projecting him to be in the company that annually includes about one player per team? Gotcha.
There's no misunderstanding about what you mean by a 50 point player. The point is you're placing it as an upper limit and it's an extremely easily achievable point total that yes, even tweener bums can accidentally run into now and then. Even if you were saying it as a median outcome it would still be low for how scouts see the player. It's pure smoke.
A ceiling isn't a "good chance to top out at". It's a best-case scenario.
And "tops out at" isn't the same as ceiling? Arguing (the wrong phrase) to argue at this point.
I dont even think Desnoyers is 6'2, he doesn't look it to me. I know what hockeydb and eliteprospects say but Bob Mckenzie has him at 6'0.5" here which feels a lot more accurate to me
www.tsn.ca
Matthew Schaefer, Roger McQueen generate intriguing talking points in McKenzie's NHL Draft Ranking | TSN
TSN’s survey of 10 NHL team scouts provide some interesting questions leading into the NHL Draft Lottery, which will be held on Monday night in Secaucus, N.J.
www.tsn.ca
No, it should be self-evident that a player's ultimate realized outcome (aka what they top out at) isn't the same as their projectable ceiling at the time they are drafted. Desnoyers has a ceiling as something like a 30g 45a Selke candidate guy. That's the dream when you draft him even if it's not what you expect as the most likely outcome. When you say a player has a 50 point ceiling, it's akin to saying there isn't a realistic development scenario where they regularly produce more than that.
The Dark Knight
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I see Desnoyers as a consistent 50-60 point player, while being great defensively and on faceoffs. Maybe a few seasons at 70+ but mostly 50-60s.
featherhawk
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Toews2Bickell
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would be funny if there is all this debate about Desnoyers and they just take Hagens...the sportsbooks have Frondell and Hagens as pretty significant favorites over Martone and Desnoyers
Kevin Musto
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Desnoyers will fall if he shrinks at the combineI dont even think Desnoyers is 6'2, he doesn't look it to me. I know what hockeydb and eliteprospects say but Bob Mckenzie has him at 6'0.5" here which feels a lot more accurate to me
Matthew Schaefer, Roger McQueen generate intriguing talking points in McKenzie's NHL Draft Ranking | TSN
TSN’s survey of 10 NHL team scouts provide some interesting questions leading into the NHL Draft Lottery, which will be held on Monday night in Secaucus, N.J.
Kevin Musto
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In many ways Hagens makes a lot of sense because the Hawks love their college program kids
I'd certainly like him more than Des or Frondell
DisgruntledHawkFan
Blackhawk Down
Hagens makes a lot of sense because he's incredibly talented.
Toews2Bickell
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right now the betting market seems to have a ~20% chance of Hagens to NYI and a ~20% of Misa to Chicago as a result, but if they go with Schaefer then the market seems to have it around 30/30/20/20 atm for Frondell, Hagens, Martone, Desnoyers in that order...Frondell is a slight favorite over Hagens, but Hagens is a big favorite over Desnoyers according to the market which is interesting given the narrative around Desnoyers and how pundits seem to talk about him having far higher odds of being the pick than the market implies atm
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Toews2Bickell
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Height in a vacuum is meaningless, Korchinski is 6'2 and think it would be consensus that he's been overmatched during his NHL stints, build matters a lot...if Desnoyers was 6'0 175 would people talk about him in the same light as being 6'2 175, or would that size narrative between him and Hagens start to disappear a bitI dont even think Desnoyers is 6'2, he doesn't look it to me. I know what hockeydb and eliteprospects say but Bob Mckenzie has him at 6'0.5" here which feels a lot more accurate to me
Matthew Schaefer, Roger McQueen generate intriguing talking points in McKenzie's NHL Draft Ranking | TSN
TSN’s survey of 10 NHL team scouts provide some interesting questions leading into the NHL Draft Lottery, which will be held on Monday night in Secaucus, N.J.
Hattrick Kane
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The draft is a month a way. The sports books mean absolutely nothing right now, they’re just trying to get suckers money early before the top of the draft leaks.
Toews2Bickell
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given the implied probabilities the market is pricing in which ones are the sucker bets
I think at 6'2 that size in considered an asset/plus as a two way centremen, at a shade over 6 foot I think that narrative goes away and his stock probably takes a bit of a hit. Does it actually make a difference? I mean that ~2 inch difference is pretty large, imagine 6'2 vs 6'4 where 6'4 is considered borderline huge for a forward
Gonna be interesting to see how he measures considering how slim the margins seem to be
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featherhawk
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true, in fact out of Martone, Frondell, Des, Hagen's likely has the highest ceiling and most talent.
Kevin Musto
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Kevin Musto
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featherhawk
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yes, I would agree with that.
guy can flat out produce offence at the US national program and was a point per game in college last year.
if the hawks want the guy with the highest ceiling that is not named Shaefer and Misa then Hagens is likely that guy.
ColbyChaos
Bring back bullying on HFboards
He plays in the Q on a stacked team. He didn’t even play well when he was paired with McKenna for Canada
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