2025 NHL Draft Thread

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does anyone good with stats know what the odds of us landing picks 1 or 2 are if we finish second last? The calculation is weirdly complicated because there's two drawings. It clearly depends on who wins the first drawing I guess, right? So theres no way of figuring it out?
 
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does anyone good with stats know what the odds of us landing picks 1 or 2 are if we finish second last? The calculation is weirdly complicated because there's two drawings. It clearly depends on who wins the first drawing I guess, right? So theres no way of figuring it out?
27.6% chance at top 2 if we finish second last. 30.7% chance for the 3rd pick and 41.7% for the 4th.
 
does anyone good with stats know what the odds of us landing picks 1 or 2 are if we finish second last? The calculation is weirdly complicated because there's two drawings. It clearly depends on who wins the first drawing I guess, right? So theres no way of figuring it out?
 
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Well...I ran Tankathon NHL Draft Simulator this morning g...took 7 attempts till Hawks landed the #1...

In the 6 prior attempts Hawks landed 4th 4 times and 3rd 2 times...

So it looks like chances of moving up orcstayingbin place are doomed this lottery....even the algorithm seems agaibstvus...

We probably should be expecting the 3rd or 4th overall pick as most likely outcome..
If we get lucky on lottery draw night take it...but realistically expect to get shoved down1 or 2 spots.

Both Hagens and Martone have faltered in the 2nd half....butin any case IF we get 4th or 3rd we should take 1 of O"Brien,Desnoyers or Frondell...

Just be prepared to miss out on Schaefer and Misa..
The 2 "old" guys ,Hagens and Martone fell off from their1st half production and mayhap already plateaued....Denyoers has fallen a bit in his goal scoring pace in recent weeks but is still very good defensively and in the details of the game...great on faceoffs...
O'brien keeps improving with a great 2bd half and still has runway to get bigger and stronger to add more mass to his 6'2 frame...given his June bithdate to turn18, you gotta tgevuoside yet to cone..coukd beca dominating star in tge making...Already considered the best playmaker in the draft,he probably ups his goal scoring to assists next season when he will be moved up to 1C from 2C role in 5x5 situations ..but he already is used all situations for Brantford in their Pp1 and Pk roles for him.
I think he goes to #3overall on my board given his already good and improving trend line and his runway for upside...just needs to add to his frame and becone eve stronger though he us goid in puck battles already at the junior level and needs some work on the defensive side ...though scouts seem to like his defensive effort the +/- is still a bit under water though he has been improving from what is was at in tge first half..Playing with Vanacker on his wing intge 2nd half has helped him knock the negative amount down ...

That is the other point..He already has chemistry with Vanacker...You could see a line with them and Lardis ...Lardis is on the Brantford 1st line centered by Oatrick Thomas ..but Lardis does get to working O'Brien who is part of their top PP...
Desnoyers you can rely on for a 2 way game..
Also would help on draws as he is very good... . I like both O'brien and Desnoyers ...Frondell is a beast from the offensive bkueline in..but I have heard some scouts criticizing his transition and puck carry game off the rush...but his firecheck,board beast and take it to the net and slot area aspects are his strengths..Still he is just average height at 6'0...
So I still rank hom only 5th overall..

Have dropped Hagens and Martone down..
Probably still in top ten but have deep reservations ...Hagens should have more goals and points but certainly has Not had a Celebrini-like production ...and his goal scoring has disappointed..His assists partially came at a greater pace when he played with Leonard and Perrault as anyone coukd pick up assists with them ...but in tgex2nd half he is pkayibg with different wingers and his offensive pace has faltered compared to just an ok first half..
He has not dazzled in any case..

Martone had a top notch first half but also has falken off in tge 2nd half and lije Hahebs may have plateued ..
I heard one scout rip on hom for inconsistency and even at times lazy pay..that is not good.

So the early darlings,Hagens and Martone both reveal some flaws now ..do es this mean NHL teams have knocked them down on their rankibg lists AND have upanked others line O'Brien Desnoyers and Frondell?
You wouldc think so ...

If I was drafting I would avoid HHensxand Martone given the poor 2nd half,and woukd up-rank the other 3...but I am not KD..
I just hope we do not draft another shrimp Center in Hagens who KD hypes as "I can't believe he fell to us" at #3or#4 or hypes a big power forward like Martone who failed to maintain dominance like he was in the first half and let in some bad lazy habits creep into his game.Th e 2 "oldsters" of this draft may have already plateaued and what you see is what you get..while I think both O'brien and Desnoyers can still get even better..as both get stronger by adding weight to their 6"2 frames their skating should add more explosion...and more weight will make them even stronger in puck battles ...so to me it is obvious to bet on the at #3and#4 ...as goidxas they are now...there is orohectibkevimprovement still to come...the vision the playnaking O'Brien has are elite...the 2 way game from Dessnoyers provides a reliable detailed 2way pkayer at Cebter who wins over63% on draws,has a very high shooting accuracy ,works well with his wingers on 2on1a...give and go and I transition...good off puck game ...does everything well... a safe pick .. woukd make a good 2C but not sure he woukd be a dominant 1C at the NHL level ..
But he can be used all situations..

O'Brien give his youth and runway may have tge highest ceiling for what he could become..parts of his game need some improvement but you can project he will add those elements next sesson with Brantford as they will give him a 1C role and as he matures into his frame .So tge upside potebtial of a top 2C is there..
Bedard maybe our 1C but honestly hevis always going to be limited by his size and his lack of elite speed ..Better wingers can help him ...and he will have to get better ddfebsiveky .. must up his shots per game to a more consistently higher level..must get to the slot a lot more ...So many aspects he still must improve on to reach the ceiling we expect from such a "Geberational" talent .

So IF (as is probable) we muss out on Schaefer or Misa as the obvious #1and#2,I hope KD takes O'Brien or Desnoyers at the #3or#4 ..
But I could see hom takibg Frondell and putting hom not as a 2C but at wing for Bedard..
 
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I just dont see what about his game makes him a centreman in the NHL. His comps are almost all wingers (Kane, Kaprisov, Kucherov). Only centreman is like Hughes, whose skating is in a whole different stratosphere. If he came into the league as a winger he would be deployed as one right now, in my opinion.
What about his game doesn't make him a center?
 
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Has Martone's stock taken a hit? Remember hearing about how'd he be perfect for Bedard.

It's definitely taken a hit. Being on a bad Canadian WJC team and then cooling off over the second half of the season has certainly brought him down a bit. At the time of the WJC selection, pretty sure both Misa and Martone were sitting at or around 2 PpG. Misa's maintained that pace but Martone's fallen off a decent bit. With Frondell surging to end the year, it wouldn't be surprising to see the draft shake out as:

Schaefer
Misa/Hagens
Misa/Hagens
Frondell
Martone
 
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New Pronman ranking has Desnoyers at 3 over Hagens, Martone, and Frondell. I haven't watched Desnoyers much but I can't imagine that will be a popular evaluation
Desnoyers is a good player. It feels like its the Schaefer/Misa lottery for 1st/2nd, then there are a few guys to pick from at #3.

I would much prefer Frondell, and Desnoyers to Hagens (in that order) if we were to miss out on 1st/2nd oa. Even Mcqueen and Martone feel like better fits. I cannot recall a time when the projected 1st oa pick going into the season slid down draft rankings and had a great career. Even if his career isn't terrible, I'd rather bet on one of the two risers I mentioned.
 
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Desnoyers is a good player. It feels like its the Schaefer/Misa lottery for 1st/2nd, then there are a few guys to pick from at #3.

I would much prefer Frondell, and Desnoyers to Hagens (in that order) if we were to miss out on 1st/2nd oa. Even Mcqueen and Martone feel like better fits. I cannot recall a time when the projected 1st oa pick going into the season slid down draft rankings and had a great career. Even if his career isn't terrible, I'd rather bet on one of the two risers I mentioned.
I am with you on this.
 
I was right...Hagens iscdroping..So too has Martonevon my own rankings..
Jake O'Brien SHOULD be rising to top 3 orv4 with Desnoyers.

I loke both O"broen and Demyoyers ..both at 6'2 Centsrs..but you get different areas of excellence with each and sobevthibgsctgey need to work on..

If Hawks getcshived down to #3or#4 I woukd be hapoy to getveotger O"brien or Desnoyers asxa "consolation prize"..

Frondelk isxa beast (though 6'0) in thebo-zone and is fine defensively . But he has no transition game ..From thevo-bluekunevin he donibates atbkeastcatvhis Alksvebskan level in wining pucks on the boardsxand taking it to the net .However I think you get more value from a Desnoyers anO'Broen..

None of these 3 will pjay in the NHL next season..need more development.

O'Brien has the most upside given hiscrelative youth as a June birthdate and willbecevrn better once he fikjsvout that 6'2 frame.
He is the BEST playmaker in this draft , the vision, the hockey I.Q. it is there.
Goal scoring could be better (32 goals after his hatty last game in a 5 point night) ..but tge fact he has gotten better as thecseason went on and has been terrific in tgec2bdchalf AND tge factvhevis not thec1C on Brantford but only thec2C even though he plays situations including their Pp1 and Pk,has to be considered when comparing to other top 1C guys lije Misa and Desnoyers who cebter top lines forctgeir teansc5x5.

So O'Brien does not play 5x5 with Lrdis..but has pkayedctgec2ndvhalf with Vanacker on thev2nd line at 5x5..

They have been clicking great in recent weeks .
You can project O'Brien to assure the top C in Brantford next seasonand probably Vanacker stays there too because he missed half this season for development.. They shoukd beca dynamic force next season.

If Hawks get tge #3or#4 only I strongly would O'Brien and his developing upside abdcrekativectoyth for this draft as tge best bet to hit a high crkibgbif stardom.

Desnoyers is also 6'2 and akso needs to addmore mass before hitting the pro level.
Witb hom you get the best defensive forward i tge draft..High hockey I Q....great working with kinenates can control the pace by changing it up/slowing down and deceptions on the rish. HAS abikity to get to the right place on the ice.. a great 2way pkayer ..goidvintge little details including very god Indians (overv63%) Good at give land goes..Has edge his play too..Great vision..Shotbisvvery accurate.. Showed improvement in hisxshotvthiscsesson ...picking corners.Used I all situations
I am nitcsure hevhasxax1C cekingblevel for the NHL but you get a reliable floor 2C for all situations ..

I think O'Brien hasxacheigher ceiling once he finishes his development and filks out more..

Coukd beca 2C for a lotvofvteamsctgat don't already have a Bedard or a Celebrini I thec.but O'Brien could give a team a better ax2C with 1C talent and that prospect of having a very productive 2nd lineor in effect 2 top lines is tantalizing.

So I have a difficult time picking between O'Brien and zdenoyers..

O woukdcsaycat this stage both coukdcuse more explosion i their skating..but bothcare above average skaters and both arecsooth skaters..
Desnouerscos not goibg tobstock-handke aroubd checkers but he can swiop aroubd them with pucknonstock cobtrol ...O'Brien has sone power moves to the net.
Lolk..I like them both for different stylistic reasons.

I just have a hunch O'Brien will drive more offense e but Desnoyers coukd provide a higher +/- given hus drfebsivecrekiabikity.

Botb will add more explosion once they will out tgeir frames anklet stronger in their legs..

Neither will be I the NHL next season..1 more year of development needed to get stronger and to fine tune some areas .

I woukd be fine if Hawks to eitgerxat #4or#4 if it should go that way.

The 2 top prizes are of course Scheafer and Misa.

Too bad Hawks cannot t get both as solutions.

Schaefer = franchise #1D ..does things at a Makar level ..but even better defense ability.
If we get #1cannot pass on a talent lije this.
But he will not be in the NHL next sesson...missed too much of thiswith injury...needs time to mature also as he is I believe the 2nd youngest player in this draft.
Despite his talent...shoukd not rush h him..

Michael Misa I believe has nothing left to prove injurious since he has been in the OHL ince a 15 year old exceotional status player .. do he has to be ibtge NHL..too young for the AHL..if Hawks draft him at #2 he I NSTANTLY transforms the Hawks and would drive tge 2nd "top line". EKITE speed and equally foidxat goal scoring and playmaking.....would give teams problem deciding which ofvtge Hawks 2 top lines to stop or which of the top 2 lines is the higher threat..
Misa will play i the NHL next season.

Martone was considered a promectarget with his size to be a solution for a wibger to help Bedard...but hiscprodiction slowed i thec2nd half ...and 1 scoutcI heard soured on hom for lazy shifts. WE cannot take THAT.

HaGENS akso very disaoiibtibgv2nd half plus lower than expected goal scoringbimpact pluschisxsizecisdies..Justctoo kanybissiesxwitb hom.
Hawksxdo not need another shrimp cebter with sone concerning issues.
He is NOT a Celebrini i ..He has to be severely down-ranked..He is nit a Jack Hughes eotger. Pass on hom..Oass onMartone

1 Schaefer
2 Misa
3 orc4=O'Brien or Drsnoyers...beyvonO'Brien 's ceikingborctake certainty ofDesnoyers's floor..both 2Cs on the Hawkscgiveb Bedardxas 1C ..but both coukd be 2C solutions better than Boisert or Moore who will be either 3Cs or wingers Hawks ifvtgey are intge show.
 
17 games remaining
6 points ahead of last place.
6 points behind 3rd to last.

Not a bad spot really. Unlikely to move from #2 before the lottery.

San Jose hosts Nashville tonight then Chicago Thursday. If there was any shot of getting into the mix for worst overall record it will be because they win those two games. Not saying I expect it to happen, but things are getting close to being cemented for the bottom of the bottom.
 
Let me ask this question IF the Hawks landxat #2after Lotto and of course takecMosa who ibstantlyvwoukd becone Hawks 2C next season..no reason for hom to stay in jrs..Has been in OHL since age 15.as an exceptional status player.

Atc6'1 185 he of course coukdcadd eight as he matures but certainly is big enough compared to shrinpsvlike Bedard to handle the pros.
Unlike Beddard hebiscan elite skater..

So obviously he cannot be the #1C unless Bedard moves to wing ...which is nit goibg to hapoen.

The question isc why can't Hawks have the equivalent of two 1Cs...like in reality McDavidcand Draisaitl driving separate "scoribgbkibes "?

Do the Hawks want simply a "2nd fiddle" C to Bedard " top line C" ...ie. no other Center on the Hawks willbe allowed to eclipse the hyped Generational presence of the Great Bedard(I guess for marketing reasons) ..OR IF another C cones along who is more effective both ways to Brdard ,can the Hawks manage that happening?

Will Bedard be psychologically damaged if another Hawks center eclipses hom?

Not saying he would ...Edmonton handles it...Draisaitl woukd be designated as a team's 1C on probably every other NHL tram except for Colorado or maybe Toronto ..but if Draisaitl were in Chicago would he not be actrue 1C and Bedard reduced to a 2C till he shows he can be a 50 goal 100+ guy too?

Not saying Misa will be in relative terms to Bedard as similar similar to Draisaitl to McDavid ..but it Could happen...Hawks hockey ops would love that to hapoen...Hawks marketing Dept. Hyping up solely Bedard would on the other hand ,have to do sonecabiut face ..and not sure how Bedard himself would react in the face ofvcompetio to show which young talent is actually a better more effective force in the NHL.

This is not to say Misa is better than Bedard..But he starts with some advantages...size...speed...defending.. and Faceoffs...those are 4 very important aspects to have advantage in..

I do not know how Brdard would react if there is a threat to him being Hawks best young forward talent .

Hopefulkyvhecwoukdcusectge chalkeenge to up his own game ..and YHAT wiukd be great for the Hawks.

People have complained that Bedard needs help..

But maybe his help cones fromanither kid making the "other top line" score like a top linecshould and that takes so much pressure off Bedard such that he will face less hard checking and so drive his libe better and score more himself?
 

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