If nyr keep their draft pick do you and the player drops to them in the 10-13 range, is a guy like McQueen worth the gamble? Hasn’t played much this season, numbers aren’t great since coming back from injury but was a projected top 5-7 guy when the season started.
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UnSandvich
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He won’t fall that far, and I wouldn’t give up next years pick on the gamble that he or another of the Top 8 prospects fall to us
GAGLine
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If we end up keeping the pick, and assuming we don't win the lottery, my preference would be to draft Jackson Smith. He could be available in the 10-13 range. He has good size, has some offense and physicality to his game, and he skates very well.
eco's bones
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Smith might be a guy we just miss out on. My guess is the Rangers will be around 11, 12, 13. Schaefer, Misa, Hagens, Frondell, Martone and Desnoyers and probably McQueen and Eklund are going to be out of our range. Smith could go right after so he might be out of our range too. Anyway I think Smith will be the second D to come off the board. If we could get between 5 and 10 I'd really love Desnoyers.
Guys more likely to be around 10 and after--forwards Jake O'Brien, Brady Martin, Malcolm Spence, Carter Bear, Lynden Lakovic, Justin Carbonneau---defensemen Radim Mrtka, Logan Hensler and Kashawn Aitcheson. I think we'll probably end up with one of these guys.
GAGLine
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Mrtka is huge, skates well for his size, and is right-handed. That could bump him up some draft boards.
I like to use mynhldraft to get quick scouting reports on players. Their rankings may not end up being very accurate, but they have Mrtka at 11 and Smith at 12.
Bukala has Mrtka at 10 and Smith at 13. Button has Smith at 14 and Mrtka at 15. Wheeler has Mrtka at 8 and Smith at 12. Pronman has Smith at 11 and Mrtka at 12.
We're currently in the 12th spot. Both Columbus and Detroit could end up passing us. If we lose tonight, Anaheim could end up passing us as well. That would get us to the 9th spot, which is probably as high as we can get unless we win the lottery.
We need to see McKenzie's rankings to get a better idea of what the scouts are thinking, but based on the above, there's a good chance Smith could be available for us when we pick.
Of course, we're just as likely, if not more so, to win just enough games to put us 14th through 16th and lose the pick.
eco's bones
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I guess to me Smith is top 10---either 9 or 10 actually. Not sure where Utah is in the standings but Mrtka might be a guy they like so there is a possibility Smith could drop. They've been taking some really big guys in recent 1st rounds. As for the Rangers if we're taking a D I'd prefer an LD over an RD---the next best LD after Smith is Aitcheson. But anyway if Smith is around and the Rangers pick him and it's at 12 that would be great and FWIW I'd consider that he'd fallen a couple spots.
I'd started looking at this rather seriously sometime around December/January because I was figuring then this team just didn't have it. One of my favorites in this draft is Desnoyers. Philly might take him. They have his brother already. Jake O'Brien or Brady Martin both centers would be a very good pick. I like Malcolm Spence---a bit of a Will Cuylle type maybe.
Savant
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I like O'Brien, but worried if he is heavy enough to be on Rangers radar. Smith makes the most sense from need and might the BPA if he is there; but doubt that he is there. Aitcheson is the "need" pick but unlike Smith, he won't be BPA if he is there; but this is such a bad D draft it might not matter; I just get McIlrath flashbacks though. Mrtka feels like a Rangers pick, wish he was lefty though, but glad is is already in North America. So to me I would probably hope for Smith, O'Brien, Mrtka in that order-ish. I like Martin too, but think other more upside guys will be there.
Mac n Gs
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Steven Ellis and Jason Bukala both really like O’Brien’s game. He’s looked pretty good from what I’ve seen, but he definitely needs a year or two to grow into his frame. He’s got that gangly giraffe look to him right now, but he’s also only 17 and has plenty of room to grow. He’s surprisingly been flying under the radar for a kid that’s young for this class and about to put up a 100 point season as a 6’2 natural C.
Savant
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Mac n Gs
Drury plz
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Do they really even have one and does it really apply to a kid who’s 6’2? I think they probably overvalue a specific player archetype, but idk if size is the be-all-end-all for them
Savant
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Only one way to find out. Listen, I am a fan, I just do not know that our front office is going to be. they might rather have a 5'11" 170lb guy than a 6'2" 170 lb guy. I don' t agree with it, but it wouldn't shock me if they were like he's too thin
Mac n Gs
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Doesn’t the Emery pick argue against that? The dude is rail thin and is struggling to add weight to his frame, despite having that crazy wiry strength.
If they keep the pick, which they probably shouldn’t, I’d rather they just take BPA with how this draft is after the first 7 picks. They kind of need depth at every organizational position anyways
Savant
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I mean I would say if Emery is struggling to add weight, that might be a reason they shy from O'Brien. And O'Brien doesn't have the USNT connections that were probably vouching for Emery.
I think the draft is a crap shoot after 6/7 as well. I like O'Brien. I am not sure that they do.
Mac n Gs
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Fair point. I have a nagging suspicion that they’ve loved Kash Aitcheson all year since he fits that player archetype I was alluding to earlier. He probably will grow another inch or two, and he already is really strong and hits like a truck. There’s potentially some untapped offense there, but I can also see him going the Lindgren route and focusing more on defense at the NHL level. A lot of people in scouting circles like him a lot as a person too
Savant
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eco's bones
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Speaking of Aitcheson. I think it's interesting that he's on a pretty talented team as a yet to be drafted defenseman and leading that team in scoring---Barrie has two 1st rounders Beaudoin (Utah) and Hemming (Dal) and three 2nd rounders (all defensemen) Bertuzzi (Dal) Akey (Edm) and Eliasson (Ott). It's a good team. I don't really see a big McIlrath comparable. Dylan is a few inches taller and always a bulkier player and never much of an offensive contributor. Aitcheson is a fairly tough kid though and he is certainly not shy but he's never going to be confused for an undertaker.
Savant
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If the reached for KA its based on his physicality more than his offense or his defense. You are drafting him for the hits and hoping the rest of the upside catches up to that. I would not be spending a 1st round pick, especially with our limited resources on that kind of a bet.
cwede
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I doubt they fall to bottom 5, but they could,
Buffalo, Seattle and Pitt are all -5 under .500, NYR just +2
Prob won't get into bottom 4 given records of Sharks, Hawks, Preds and Flyers
eco's bones
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Yeah I really don't look at it that way. The most points McIlrath ever got in a WHL season was 24 and he played out his junior years. He was a stay at home physical beast.
Aitcheson has a couple more seasons potentially and he ends this regular season leading his team in scoring. He's a very physical player but I wouldn't call him a beast. He's an important puck moving point producer on a Barrie team that had the 5th best regular season record in the OHL and as a younger player he outpointed 1st and 2nd round NHL draftees on the Barrie team both forwards and D. It isn't to say I envision him as the next Quinn Hughes or Cale Makar but he looks to me like he's going to be a 6-1/2 210/215 lb. physical two way defenseman---maybe not top pairing but a solid top 4. If he hits that kind of ceiling he's a very good pick.
I like that there's a real edge in his game too. Some guys never get that and it can stagnate a player's game. Sometimes you need to dial it down some but I'd rather that than a guy who doesn't have it at all and so can't dial it up.
Savant
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It’s not a perfect comp by any means. I am just more so concerned we will have blinders on because of the physical stuff and overlook some better guys. I think everyone in that Mrtka/Hensler/Aitcheson group is pretty interchangeable?
Aitcheson is probably going to be the riser out of that; heck I think some teams would take him over Smith; but to me Aitcheson over Smith is teetering on McIlrath over Fowler galaxy braining territory too. So not a pure player comp, but a bit of a vibes comp.
That being said, I just think what I would do doesn’t necessarily match what this team would do. So i kind of have to look through that lens. I’m with the people who’d be looking at O’Brien. I’d be looking at Bear. I’d be seeing if one of the centers in that Desnoyer/Frondell/McQueen group drops. I like Brady Martin too. Think he is a bit underrated.
Basically I’d be looking O’Brien/Bear (if you think he can stick at center) / Martin at current draft position. But I definitely could see them taking Aitcheson; BUT if they are taking Aitcheson I am pretty sure it’s going to be for the wrong reasons. Not sure if that makes sense but that’s kind of where my headspace is at. Just think Aitchenson is going to get overdrafted because it’s a lousy D draft and he hits stuff. A bit like how Cam Ward and Shedeur Sanders are going to go way to early in the NFL draft; mostly because this is a bad draft (especially at QB) /combined with QB scarcity
eco's bones
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This take makes more sense to me. I don't see Aitcheson becoming a future star. I do see him becoming a pretty solid top 4 who plays a nasty and gritty game and maybe puts up 30/35 point a year. If we wanted to go LD and Schaefer and Smith are gone Aitcheson would be the next man up for me. He's got a fairly rounded game. By the way I was looking at a scouting review of him by the Hockey Writers from last year and they talk about his physical game but they also chided him for not being physical enough---they cite 0.61 hits average a game while also saying more than less he was still a very physical presence.
Whether or not he'd be a guy I'd take at 12/13 might depend on what the board looks like at that point. At the moment I don't have a strong preference for us taking a forward or a D.
Going back to McIlrath I could understand the reasoning behind the pick. It was a mistake but that was also a draft where a lot of guys busted. Also McIlrath suffered a devastating injury in development camp before his first pro year that set his development back a couple years anyway. I remember reading a comment from him that his knee did not feel right for something like 3 years after that injury. Those are crucial years in any player's development. Not saying he would have been even a top 4 but he quite possibly would have been a solid bottom pairing guy and I don't think there's any doubt he would have a lot more NHL games if that hadn't happened.
Even so Aitcheson is a better skater and the key offensive D on his team. McIlrath never ever was anything like that for any team.
