HF Habs: 2025 NHL Draft: Part II

[Seb]

Any chance Jackson Smith drops to us?

 

[montreal]

I'm not a draft guy, I started making some non Hab prospect vids for the draft last year but they barely got 200 views for some, so cut back. This year might be the first time I ever sat down and watched a full game of the U-18's, but I barely saw any CHL games this year since CHL.tv is so overpriced and total crap streams half the time.

I assume that in no order that Schaefer, Misa, Martone, Hagens, Frondell, Mrtka, and O'Brien all go top 10. I assume McQueen and Eklund go in the top 10 as well. Desnoyers or Smith I would guess are also in the mix (I only saw a little of Smith and was not impressed with his decision making). Of course someone could surprise as you never know what GM is going to fall in love with who, and I think Utah throw a big wrench into things as I got to think they will look to trade the pick, as I assume they are kind of like the Habs and looking to take that next step and focus more on building up the roster and not so much the draft. I am just guessing as I don't follow the NHL at all or any media people at all, most of the stuff I see is on twitter from people who I have no clue who they are so I take it with a grain of salt.

This draft does seem wide open after 5 or 6 just that I find GM's love to over draft height so I think we will see a repeat of that.

 

[Goldenhands]

Got a bit of an hypothetical scenario in mind for your guys.

If Porter Martone makes it to #8 on the draft floor, on account of teams 1-7 needing centers and defensemen before wingers and/or being a bit "down" on him because of energy/pace/skating problems, would you be happy if the Canadiens traded both #16 and #17 to Seattle be in a position to draft Porter Martone at #8?

I sure would, but I don't know if I'd be in the minority or not.

I would trade both picks for a 2C, but if we cant get it done, I would definitely package our 2 picks to move up in the draft. I feel at 16 and 17 we will fall short of getting a top 6 foward and since we need quality more than quantity... I doubt Martone drops that low though, but I would be fine with any of Desnoyers, Eklund, Lakovic.

 

[Goldenhands]

Any chance Jackson Smith drops to us?

If you enjoyed Nathan Beaulieu, Jackson Smith is your guy...

NDL for me.

 

[Garbageyuk]

Porter Martone has got to be one of the most overrated prospects in recent history. Soft perimeter player.

He’s also huge and one of the oldest players in the class. That kind of puts his numbers in a different light.

 

[Seb]

If you enjoyed Nathan Beaulieu, Jackson Smith is your guy...

NDL for me.

I watched a 20+ mins video on him so that now makes me an expert and his profile looked enticing. Big, mobile dman with agility. Looked like most of issues could be teached and could come with experience.

I trust your judgement tho, you've probably watched him play and I never did.

 

[Lockin17]

would you guys do a trade with Phily

MTL : #16
for
PHI : #24 + #25 (if Oilers loose the next serie)

 

[JeffreyLFC]

would you guys do a trade with Phily

MTL : #16
for
PHI : #24 + #25 (if Oilers loose the next serie)

Yes I would. That's great value.

 

[Playmaker09]

Unlikely. Fiddler has a lot of tools and has bloodlines. Fiddler's floor is a 3rd pair RD. Hard to say that about anyone projected to go in the 2nd round of this craptastic draft.

46 defensemen who were drafted between 16-32 played a game in the NHL this year.
34 between 33-48. The ratio is not as significantly different as you assume, and I'd easily stand by my previous claim that two darts at D in the 2nd are better than one in the late first.

Now compare that to forwards.
115 played a game between 16-32 and 45 between 33-48. Night and day difference of 2.55:1 vs 1.35:1.
In other words, two darts at F in the second do not come close to the value of one in the late first.

It's probably the biggest NHL tendency on draft day I disagree with.
Spending picks on late first D is just as likely to land you a dud like Beaulieu, Tinordi or Juulsen as it is a top 4 D.
Further, you can much more easily come across Subbans, Romanovs and Hutsons in the second (as well as many duds, don't get me wrong) than top forwards.
At the end of the day, they're all just darts.

When a D is going to need 4+ years of development to be ready to hold a full time role, who's to say how it'll all shake out by that time.
We constantly apply that logic to drafting goalies, why not D? If you've got a stud, sure draft them high. But Fiddler's no stud prospect.

 

[Team_Spirit]

 

[WinterLion]

Unlikely. Fiddler has a lot of tools and has bloodlines. Fiddler's floor is a 3rd pair RD. Hard to say that about anyone projected to go in the 2nd round of this craptastic draft.

Blake Fiddler is definitely a target too for me

I'd rather use both 2nds on RD than take Fiddler top 20. Odds are one ends up developing better than him anyway, and there are many options to choose from.

If Fiddler was an inch taller he'd probably be top 15 lock... also he's among the of the projected top 50 picks... lots of runway.

Needs patience, but might be a rewarding project...

...but can he fight???

 

[Goldenhands]

I watched a 20+ mins video on him so that now makes me an expert and his profile looked enticing. Big, mobile dman with agility. Looked like most of issues could be teached and could come with experience.

I trust your judgement tho, you've probably watched him play and I never did.

Im usually not a big fan of comparables since each player is different, but I see ton of similarities with a young Nathan Beaulieu. Great skater with above average puck skills and athletic tools, but there is a lack of hockey IQ in almost all aspects of his game. He will skate the puck up ice and end up turning it over being stopped at the offensive blueline or ending giving it away as soon as the gap closes on him. He will fall asleep or being overcasual in his own end letting guys slide behind his back, he will fail at recognizing assignments, will precipitate plays under hard forechecking, will take questionable decisions with the puck with limited time and space. I mean, I only watched a few games, but those were the patterns going on in all my viewings. His last playoffs game was a comedy of mistakes, he did a dumb thing basically every shifts.

 

[WinterLion]

I would trade both picks for a 2C, but if we cant get it done, I would definitely package our 2 picks to move up in the draft. I feel at 16 and 17 we will fall short of getting a top 6 foward and since we need quality more than quantity... I doubt Martone drops that low though, but I would be fine with any of Desnoyers, Eklund, Lakovic.

Do you have a list this year?

 

[Playmaker09]

Im usually not a big fan of comparables since each player is different, but I see ton of similarities with a young Nathan Beaulieu. Great skater with above average puck skills and athletic tools, but there is a lack of hockey IQ in almost all aspects of his game. He will skate the puck up ice and end up turning it over being stopped at the offensive blueline or ending giving it away as soon as the gap closes on him. He will fall asleep or being overcasual in his own end letting guys slide behind his back, he will fail at recognizing assignments, will precipitate plays under hard forechecking, will take questionable decisions with the puck with limited time and space. I mean, I only watched a few games, but those were the patterns going on in all my viewings. His last playoffs game was a comedy of mistakes, he did a dumb thing basically every shifts.

I'm not the highest on Smith either, but he's a much surer puckhandler than Beaulieu ever was who handled it like a grenade.
With Beaulieu there was a 50/50 chance of any puck coming back to the point hopping over his stick and leading to a break the other way. I don't see that with Smith, and he has much better odds of being a long-time NHLer.

I see Smith as more of a Seth Jones/Jeff Petry type who you absolutely do not want on your shutdown pair, but who can contribute nicely in a more sheltered second pair role. However, as a LD he's not as valuable or scarce as either of those guys. Certainly not to us in particular.

 

[Playmaker09]

I would trade both picks for a 2C, but if we cant get it done, I would definitely package our 2 picks to move up in the draft. I feel at 16 and 17 we will fall short of getting a top 6 foward and since we need quality more than quantity... I doubt Martone drops that low though, but I would be fine with any of Desnoyers, Eklund, Lakovic.

My cut off is at 13. Would love to get at least one of those picks up there, otherwise none of the top 3 holes on the roster (top 6 W, 2C, RD) are likely to be addressed without taking some significant risk in selecting guys like Reschny, McQueen, or Carbonneau.

 

[Adam Michaels]

Isles will pick the local kid?

It will be interesing. Because they might be tempted to take Hagens because he also played with Cole Eiserman at the USNDTP and they'll look to reunite those two (Isles took Eiserman 20th OA last year).

Or they can go with Schaefer and look to extend Dobson. Those two could be an elite pairing. And that would force Romanov to be on the second pair instead of on the top pair with Dobson.

 

[Playmaker09]

It will be interesing. Because they might be tempted to take Hagens because he also played with Cole Eiserman at the USNDTP and they'll look to reunite those two (Isles took Eiserman 20th OA last year).

Or they can go with Schaefer and look to extend Dobson. Those two could be an elite pairing. And that would force Romanov to be on the second pair instead of on the top pair with Dobson.

They weren't very good together and were often on separate lines.

Stiga-Hagens-Ziemer was the top line.

 

[Whitesnake]

For the purpose of talking about picks we have now....and pretending we keep them all....I will say this...as much as I understand the whole size issue, I will have a hard time passing on Katzin in the 3rd round. I love my players to be dynamic. It will be tough in this whole draft to find tons of players more dynamic than him despite the size.

 

[crosbyshow]

If Fiddler was an inch taller he'd probably be top 15 lock... also he's among the of the projected top 50 picks... lots of runway.

Needs patience, but might be a rewarding project...

...but can he fight???

If Fiddler was an inch taller.....he wiuld be a top 10

Think about that for a second guys.


Fans, scouts, gm are crazy..

5.11 or 6.0.......jeez..... the psycho 6.0....

What about his reach ? his flexibility? Etc

I know some 5.10 dudes who are playing a lot taller than 6.0 players

 

[WeThreeKings]

You guys know Fiddler is 6'4 right?

 

[JadedRandom]

Any chance Jackson Smith drops to us?

Zero chance.

I don't think Smith is likely to be taken top-6, maybe at #4 for Utah if they are high on him but that's an outside shot's outside shot.

Boston at #7 is expected to try and acquire a C. They will definitely consider guys like McQueen, O'Brien, Desnoyers, Hagens, or Frondell and most likely select whomever is left and they are most high on. But they need talent at every position and could realistically also go defenseman with their high pick in this draft if they're high on Smith.

Seattle needs talent all-around, and LDs are an area of weakness for them so they could shore that up AND draft BPA at #8 with Smith.

If not Seattle, there are many other teams before the Canadiens draft at #16 that would be happy to select a prospect with the potential that Smith shows.

If you enjoyed Nathan Beaulieu, Jackson Smith is your guy...

NDL for me.

I've watched Smith extensively this year, and I disagree with that take of yours.

Not to say that Jackson Smith doesn't have brainfarts at times on the ice and play selection issues, like Beaulieu, because he very clearly does.

But I just think that when Jackson Smith stops wanting to "be a hero" and plays a quiet, "solid fundamentals" type of game that his play quality shoots WAYYY up.

There are quite a few of those moments throughout his season where Jackson Smith was just an absolute rock on defense, physical, and showed signs of playing a mature, "pro type" of game.

Those games were amazing to watch, and highlighted potential #1D in the NHL type of potential. It's just a bit of a shame that Smith would follow those types of games with more brash, uncontrolled performances that I wasn't nearly as high on.

But with pro coaching I think Smith will learn, and end up a very good defenseman in the NHL. Beaulieu never had those highs I see of Smith, and had much lesser tools as a prospect besides so I don't think that comparison is accurate.

Agree to disagree otherwise.

Oh yeah, and just to reiterate, what makes me rate Jackson Smith so highly are those quieter moments of his where he stops being all-over-the-place and just concentrates on defense, making a first pass, supporting the play, and being physical.

If Smith hadn't had those types of quieter games I'd be much, much lower on him than I am now, since that would make his floor much, much lower.

But the presence of those more controlled plays and pure hockey tools makes me think that maybe there's a future in which Jackson Smith manages to put everything together and ends up an actual #1 in the NHL.

Right now I'd say that, barring injuries Smith projects to be at the very worst a #5 physical defenseman on a good team, with high potential to boot. Which is exactly why I've got him at #7 on my list.

A high ceiling and high floor makes for a very desirable draft prospect.

 

[Doublechin]

You guys know Fiddler is 6'4 right?

I'm pretty sure they think he's 5'11

 

[Goldenhands]

Do you have a list this year?

Nope, not enough viewings and not really a fan of this draft anyway.

 

[WeThreeKings]

I'm pretty sure they think he's 5'11

They must

 

[Goldenhands]

I've watched Smith extensively this year, and I disagree with that take of yours.

Not to say that Jackson Smith doesn't have brainfarts at times on the ice and play selection issues, like Beaulieu, because he very clearly does.

But I just think that when Jackson Smith stops wanting to "be a hero" and plays a quiet, "solid fundamentals" type of game that his play quality shoots WAYYY up.

There are quite a few of those moments throughout his season where Jackson Smith was just an absolute rock on defense, physical, and showed signs of playing a mature, "pro type" of game.

Those games were amazing to watch, and highlighted potential #1D in the NHL type of potential. It's just a bit of a shame that Smith would follow those types of games with more brash, uncontrolled performances that I wasn't nearly as high on.

But with pro coaching I think Smith will learn, and end up a very good defenseman in the NHL. Beaulieu never had those highs I see of Smith, and had much lesser tools as a prospect besides so I don't think that comparison is accurate.

Agree to disagree otherwise.

Oh yeah, and just to reiterate, what makes me rate Jackson Smith so highly are those quieter moments of his where he stops being all-over-the-place and just concentrates on defense, making a first pass, supporting the play, and being physical.

If Smith hadn't had those types of quieter games I'd be much, much lower on him than I am now, since that would make his floor much, much lower.

But the presence of those more controlled plays and pure hockey tools makes me think that maybe there's a future in which Jackson Smith manages to put everything together and ends up an actual #1 in the NHL.

Right now I'd say that, barring injuries Smith projects to be at the very worst a #5 physical defenseman on a good team, with high potential to boot. Which is exactly why I've got him at #7 on my list.

A high ceiling and high floor makes for a very desirable draft prospect.

Well, cant really argue with a guy who has Instats.