JadedRandom
Registered User
Before the achilles tear injury, Bear would have been a borderline top-10 pick for me, in-between 10-12.
Now, though? I'd have him 16th.
And I actually think Bear could fall lower than that given that he's already not the fastest guy on the ice and could become even slower because of the achilles injury.
Plus, there are guys like Cootes and Martin that I'd personally have a bit lower than Bear but have middle-6 center upsides for the teams that draft them and both have a nice blend of skating, physicality, skills, and size.
So GMs might prefer those types of players over the "riskier" Carter Bear.
Eyeballing it now, I'd say 10-25 would be the range where Carter Bear should be available on both the high and low sides.
Anything after 25 and Carter Bear starts being a very, very high-value pickup by a team.
Having seen both at the QMJHL level, I'd have to say that Carbonneau just plays a different type of game compared to Sprong.
Sprong played a very typical "pro" type of game back in 2014-2015 when he was drafted.
Sprong produced very well for his team off of nice skills, a mature approach to the game, and a frankly elite 4-way skating ability.
Carbonneau is completely different.
He's much more of a chaotic element both positively and negatively for Blainville-Boisbriand compared to Sprong's play in the Q.
Where Sprong was content to chip the puck along the boards and take what was available to him, Carbonneau challenges the defender 1-on-1, braces for contact, and tries to manufacture an advantage any way he can.
To add, Carbonneau gets frustrating to watch at times given how he seemingly "refuses" the make the simple play and how he always tries his luck, no matter the odds.
But on the flipside there are also times where Carbonneau's aggressiveness allows him to create plays out of nowhere basically.
Overall, I believe Carbonneau has much better vision than Sprong ever did as a prospect, and I think he makes high-end plays on a much more regular basis vs. draft-year Sprong.
I'll watch Carbonneau at times, he'll handle the puck, skate around an opponent, and then put a very nice pass directly on a teammate's stick through HEAVY coverage by the opposing team for a very high-danger scoring chance for Blainville.
But the way Carbonneau plays seemingly without regard for position at times, and how he has a tendency to hog the puck and skate to nowhere with it is why I have doubts about how good his Hockey IQ really is.
For Sprong in his draft year it wasn't exactly play-selection that I had a problem with, but in how exactly high-end his vision and offensive creativity were given that Sprong showed very little high-end skill/vision offensively but rather abused his elite skating (much better skating than Carbonneau, that's for sure) and physical maturity holding on to the puck and extending plays for points in the QMJHL that wouldn't be/aren't there at the NHL level.
As for the overall comparison of draft-year Sprong and Carbonneau, I don't think the parallels you're trying to draw are wrong especially though. Both players have/had some issues with decision-making.
But Carbonneau and Sprong play completely different types of games and I wanted to kind of define that difference in my eyes.
That said, I find it funny that if Carbonneau played a bit more like Sprong in his draft year, accepting that you can't always get what you want offensively and dumping the puck, I'd have him higher than the 15th spot that he currently occupies on my list.
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