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HF Habs: 2025 NHL Draft: Part II

LesCactus said:
That’s a tough one, if they picked Bear over Spence I wouldn’t be mad at all. Can’t go wrong with either or imo.
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That's where I disagree. You can "go wrong" with either.

Spence's issue is one about ultimate upside. He's gonna be an NHLer one day, but I still don't know if that's as a 3rd/4th-line winger, or as a top-6 guy.

It could go any which way but I think Spence is currently trending more towards middle-6, which is why I've got him lower than some higher-upside skill guys with similarly higher bust rates (like Potter, Reschny, Kindel, etc.).

If a team drafts Spence to be a top-6 guy for them, I think they might have been better-served going with higher-skill type of prospects instead of him. And may "regret" the pick if you will.

As for Bear, well, the only issue I have with him isn't his diminutive size believe it or not. Well, it is, but not as a stand-alone problem.

My main issue with Bear is middling skating already by NHL standards combined with his smaller frame.

And taken on its own it wouldn't even be such a big deal, players often improve in skating throughout their careers and the rest of Bear's skillset is very impressive so he could definitely be a top-6 forward with some amount of improvement here and there.

In addition to his high level of skill/smarts, Bear shows great dedication to improvement and a very impressive level of grit/determination, so that works in his favor too.

Unfortunately, I consider that skating weakness of his to now have maybe been jeopardized further by the Achilles tear that Carter Bear suffered, which ended his season.

Achilles tears unfortunately have pretty bad recovery rates compared to many of the injuries to the legs most commonly seen in sports, and often permanently affect the player that suffered one.

Complete Achilles tears are the worst by far of those types of injuries, and can be crippling for sportsmen, whilst partial tears offer more hope for complete recovery but can still permanently inhibit a player's speed if treatment goes even just slightly not optimally.

As an example, Peyton Krebs suffered a pretty bad partial Achilles tear (close to complete tear) back in his draft year, got surgery, re-habbed as he could, but unfortunately went from borderline-elite skating pre-draft to basically NHL-average speed now, with a lot less acceleration as a result of the injury.

So yeah, a team could definitely "go wrong" on a Carter Bear pick if they don't do their due diligence and don't ask to get some clarity on the type of Achilles tear it was from the doctor that operated on Bear.

Bear might have a lot of guts and skill, but if his skating goes from "middling" to "below NHL-average", combined with his small frame, it might make it tough on Bear to create the space he would need in the NHL to be able to make plays and might ultimately limit his ability to be a good offensive player for the team that drafts him.

I still rank Bear highly, as I think he was a borderline top-10 talent before the injury, but it is definitely a point of concern. And I wouldn't be surprised if Bear falls to the end of the first-round or even second-round because of it.
 
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Spending 1st pick on Spence when were unable to make place for Beck? When you got a ton of prospects, you finish the road with plenty of fish for bottom 6 spots. I still swing for talent.
 
JadedRandom said:
That's where I disagree. You can "go wrong" with either.

Spence's issue is one about ultimate upside. He's gonna be an NHLer one day, but I still don't know if that's as a 3rd/4th-line winger, or as a top-6 guy.

It could go any which way but I think Spence is currently trending more towards middle-6, which is why I've got him lower than some higher-upside skill guys with similarly higher bust rates (like Potter, Reschny, Kindel, etc.).

If a team drafts Spence to be a top-6 guy for them, I think they might have been better-served going with higher-skill type of prospects instead of him. And may "regret" the pick if you will.

As for Bear, well, the only issue I have with him isn't his diminutive size believe it or not. Well, it is, but not as a stand-alone problem.

My main issue with Bear is middling skating already by NHL standards combined with his smaller frame.

And taken on its own it wouldn't even be such a big deal, players often improve in skating throughout their careers and the rest of Bear's skillset is very impressive so he could definitely be a top-6 forward with some amount of improvement here and there.

In addition to his high level of skill/smarts, Bear shows great dedication to improvement and a very impressive level of grit/determination, so that works in his favor too.

Unfortunately, I consider that skating weakness of his to now have maybe been jeopardized further by the Achilles tear that Carter Bear suffered, which ended his season.

Achilles tears unfortunately have pretty bad recovery rates compared to many of the injuries to the legs most commonly seen in sports, and often permanently affect the player that suffered one.

Complete Achilles tears are the worst by far of those types of injuries, and can be crippling for sportsmen, whilst partial tears offer more hope for complete recovery but can still permanently inhibit a player's speed if treatment goes even just slightly not optimally.

As an example, Peyton Krebs suffered a pretty bad partial Achilles tear (close to complete tear) back in his draft year, got surgery, re-habbed as he could, but unfortunately went from borderline-elite skating pre-draft to basically NHL-average speed now, with a lot less acceleration as a result of the injury.

So yeah, a team could definitely "go wrong" on a Carter Bear pick if they don't do their due diligence and don't ask to get some clarity on the type of Achilles tear it was from the doctor that operated on Bear.

Bear might have a lot of guts and skill, but if his skating goes from "middling" to "below NHL-average", combined with his small frame, it might make it tough on Bear to create the space he would need in the NHL to be able to make plays and might ultimately limit his ability to be a good offensive player for the team that drafts him.

I still rank Bear highly, as I think he was a borderline top-10 talent before the injury, but it is definitely a point of concern. And I wouldn't be surprised if Bear falls to the end of the first-round or even second-round because of it.
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So, you don't see Bear coming here unless he slides to Pitt's 2nd?
 
I'll do the exercice later as far as rankings and all....but frankly...I'd be more surprise if we stay put and pick those 2 picks in the 1st round than receiving today's news about Demidov...and I was heavily surprised....lol
 
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Scintillating10 said:
So, you don't see Bear coming here unless he slides to Pitt's 2nd?
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Never said that.

Just, it is possible that an hypothetical pick-up of either Bear or Spence "goes wrong".

Spence doesn't have the highest offensive potential in my mind, and Bear has some flaws too given the achilles tear and already-average skating.

That was the entirety of my point. I was nitpicking on what you said and giving reasons as to why said nitpicking was actually quite reasonable.

That's it that's all.
 
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JadedRandom said:
Never said that.

Just, it is possible that an hypothetical pick-up of either Bear or Spence "goes wrong".

Spence doesn't have the highest offensive potential in my mind, and Bear has some flaws too given the achilles tear and already-average skating.

That was the entirety of my point. I was nitpicking on what you said and giving reasons as to why said nitpicking was actually quite reasonable.

That's it that's all.
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What you think of Reschny? Has 12 points in 5 playoff games
 
Scintillating10 said:
What you think of Reschny? Has 12 points in 5 playoff games
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Overall, I like Reschny too, he has some pretty impressive skills as a playmaker.

However, I'm not a fan of Reschny's size/strength/skating combo, feel that he needs to improve how he handles contact when he has the puck on his stick, and generally think his defense needs work. But Reschny's feisty for a smaller player and his overall good hockey sense could elevate him into having a successful hockey career in the pros with all-around development given his solid base of skills.

I have Reschny in the 20s at the draft, but I think guys like Benjamin Kindel and Cullen Potter each have certain aspects to their games that make me rate them slightly higher as prospects. The same holds true for Schmidt and Bear too, but to an even greater extent.

I'll also just say right now that production is good to see and important, but that the most crucial thing that makes me rate a prospect higher or lower is how exactly one particular prospect gets their points in the playoffs and how they play overall, not how many points they get.

If Prospect A gets, say, 14 points in 5 games off of mostly "junior plays" against lesser competition while Prospect B gets 6-7 points in 5 games off of all NHL plays and slightly stronger opposition, I'd still say that Prospect A's performance is impressive but that Prospect B's scoring tracks better for the NHL.

It isn't exactly clear-cut, but chances are in that scenario that I'd rate Prospect B higher off of their respective playoffs despite the lack of actual points.

Which leads me to Cole Reschny's play in those playoffs; he's been very good for the Royals, but I'd say that the scoring plays that he's made have been a bit skewed towards "junior plays" and so they are less impressive to me than the pure numbers would indicate.

To add, so far the Royals have crushed lesser opponents in Tri-City, as the 20-9 scoring indicates, so Reschny hasn't really been tested in my opinion and his 12 points have to be taken with yet another grain of salt.

I'll be able to see more of where he's at play-wise as the playoffs continue and the Royals face tougher competition.

That's about where I stand on Reschny right now.
 
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One player I've seen constantly ranked in the middle of the 1st round by most scouting agencies but I don't remember seeing his name mentioned is Justin Carbonneau, what's the knock on him ? Haven't seen him play at all, just read a bit here and there that he has a great shot, equally great scoring instincts, and that he can play a power game just fine, but he's very inconsistent and his skating stride ain't exactly great. I imagine there's also the Q factor.
 
L4br3cqu3 said:
One player I've seen constantly ranked in the middle of the 1st round by most scouting agencies but I don't remember seeing his name mentioned is Justin Carbonneau, what's the knock on him ? Haven't seen him play at all, just read a bit here and there that he has a great shot, equally great scoring instincts, and that he can play a power game just fine, but he's very inconsistent and his skating stride ain't exactly great. I imagine there's also the Q factor.
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In short, decision-making.

Sometimes Carbonneau makes ELITE offensive plays, moving around/manipulating the defense one way while just waiting for the perfect opportunity to then thread a high-end pass for a grade-A scoring opportunity for his team.

But he also often refuses to make the simple play, turning the puck over A CRAPTON or skating a lot while hogging puck for very little results and then losing it in some way. That gets frustrating really quick.

That same inconsistency to Carbonneau's game, and how wildly-erratic some of his decisions can be both positively and negatively, makes it really damn hard to try and evaluate his hockey sense as a player.

One night I'll watch him and he'll tantalize me by showing high-end stuff mostly, beautiful hockey fit for a top-5 prospect in a draft class. In those games Carbonneau looks like he could be a future star in the NHL.

Except that another night I'll watch Carbonneau play and wonder how he even managed to reach the QMJHL with that low a level of decision-making. On those nights I wonder if Carbonneau's skill/skating/strength haven't been masking a weak Hockey IQ all that time, a weakness that might preclude him from a successful career in the NHL.

So yeah, if Carbonneau showed consistently-good decisions, he'd be a no-brainer top 5-10 pick.

But it isn't the case and so some, including myself, struggle with projections at the highest level for him and drop him a bit in rankings.
 
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JadedRandom said:
In short, decision-making.

Sometimes Carbonneau makes ELITE offensive plays, moving around/manipulating the defense one way while just waiting for the perfect opportunity to then thread a high-end pass for a grade-A scoring opportunity for his team.

But he also often refuses to make the simple play, turning the puck over A CRAPTON or skating a lot while hogging puck for very little results and then losing it in some way. That gets frustrating really quick.

That same inconsistency to Carbonneau's game, and how wildly-erratic some of his decisions can be both positively and negatively, makes it really damn hard to try and evaluate his hockey sense as a player.

One night I'll watch him and he'll tantalize me by showing high-end stuff mostly, beautiful hockey fit for a top-5 prospect in a draft class. In those games Carbonneau looks like he could be a future star in the NHL.

Except that another night I'll watch Carbonneau play and wonder how he even managed to reach the QMJHL with that low a level of decision-making. On those nights I wonder if Carbonneau's skill/skating/strength haven't been masking a weak Hockey IQ all that time, a weakness that might preclude him from a successful career in the NHL.

So yeah, if Carbonneau showed consistently-good decisions, he'd be a no-brainer top 5-10 pick.

But it isn't the case and so some, including myself, struggle with projections at the highest level for him and drop him a bit in rankings.
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Thanks for the in-depth reply, I really appreciate it.
 
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L4br3cqu3 said:
One player I've seen constantly ranked in the middle of the 1st round by most scouting agencies but I don't remember seeing his name mentioned is Justin Carbonneau, what's the knock on him ? Haven't seen him play at all, just read a bit here and there that he has a great shot, equally great scoring instincts, and that he can play a power game just fine, but he's very inconsistent and his skating stride ain't exactly great. I imagine there's also the Q factor.
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I don't know his game as this year I opted to save some money and not pay for that overpriced piece of crap they all CHL.tv since we didn't have much in the CHL this year and I knew I had to pay a lot for the overpriced piece of crap that is Flohockey.tv (to be fair it's a bit better then CHL.tv which is more expensive and worst quality streams.

On twitter I saw someone saying there were some non hockey issues related to Carbonneau but I didn't read much more and haven't heard anything else so others that follow him can weight on if there's any truth, I know it's been said the Habs scouts were seen a # of times at his games.
 
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