That’s a tough one, if they picked Bear over Spence I wouldn’t be mad at all. Can’t go wrong with either or imo.
That's where I disagree. You can "go wrong" with either.
Spence's issue is one about ultimate upside. He's gonna be an NHLer one day, but I still don't know if that's as a 3rd/4th-line winger, or as a top-6 guy.
It could go either way but I think Spence is currently trending more towards middle-6, which is why I've got him lower than some higher-upside skill guys with similarly higher bust rates (like Potter, Reschny, Kindel, etc.).
If a team drafts Spence to be a top-6 guy for them, I think they might have been better-served going with higher-skill type of prospects instead of him. And may "regret" the pick if you will.
As for Bear, well, the only issue I have with him isn't his diminutive size believe it or not. Well, it is, but not as a stand-alone problem.
My main issue with Bear is middling skating already by NHL standards combined with his smaller frame.
And taken on its own it wouldn't even be such a big deal, players often improve in skating throughout their careers and the rest of Bear's skillset is very impressive so he could definitely be a top-6 forward with some amount of improvement here and there.
In addition to his high level of skill/smarts, Bear shows great dedication to improvement and a very impressive level of grit/determination, so that works in his favor too.
Unfortunately, I consider that skating weakness of his to now have maybe been jeopardized further by the Achilles tear that Carter Bear suffered, which ended his season.
Achilles tears unfortunately have pretty bad recovery rates compared to many of the injuries to the legs most commonly seen in sports, and often permanently affect the player that suffered one.
Complete Achilles tears are the worst by far of those types of injuries, and can be crippling for sportsmen, whilst partial tears offer more hope for complete recovery but can still permanently inhibit a player's speed if treatment goes even just slightly not optimally.
As an example, Peyton Krebs suffered a pretty bad partial Achilles tear (close to complete tear) back in his draft year, got surgery, re-habbed as he could, but unfortunately went from borderline-elite skating pre-draft to basically NHL-average speed now, with a lot less acceleration as a result of the injury.
So yeah, a team could definitely "go wrong" on a Carter Bear pick if they don't do their due diligence and don't ask to get some clarity on the type of Achilles tear it was from the doctor that operated on Bear.
Bear might have a lot of guts and skill, but if his skating goes from "middling" to "below NHL-average", combined with his small frame, it might make it tough on Bear to create the space he would need in the NHL to be able to make plays and might ultimately limit his ability to be a good offensive player for the team that drafts him.
I still rank Bear highly, as I think he was a borderline top-10 talent before the injury, but it is definitely a point of concern. And I wouldn't be surprised if Bear falls to the end of the first-round or even second-round because of it.