Scintillating10
Registered User
Bulging disc, he'd have to slide to our second first for me.
HF Habs: 2025 NHL Draft: Part II
- Thread starter MarkovsKnee
- Start date
IMO Columbus is too far into their rebuild to draft a goalie high. Even the most highly touted ones typically only start to take off in their early to mid 20s.
I think San Jose had the right idea, better to trade for those guys than to draft them high in the later stages of a rebuild.
Vachon23
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Vachon23
Registered User
He would play in the QMJHL, his rights belong to Shawinigan.
I had a very high grade on him in the 2023 QJMHL draft
I’d still consider Ravensbergen with our 2nd 1st Rd Pick if he’s available. He’d get 3-4 years to develop while presumably Fowler is playing on the team. If Fowler is a bust they have a back up ready.
WeThreeKings
Habs cup - its in the BAG
I'd only take him in the 2nd round at this point. He hasn't had the best season this year, is still in the CHL goaltending development system which is one of the worst in the world, and we don't have a dire need.
Nevins
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- Jul 12, 2014
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Neutral Zone ´s scouting report on Jake Obrien.OHL: Jake O'Brien - Neutral Zone - Men's
Jake O'Brien Ahead of Porter Martone and James Hagens ?
Jake O'Brien Ahead of Porter Martone and James Hagens ?
Benstheman
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- Nov 20, 2014
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WeThreeKings
Habs cup - its in the BAG
- Matthew Schaefer
- Michael Misa
- James Hagens
- Porter Martone
- Caleb Desnoyers
- Anton Frondell
- Jake O'Brien
- Radim Mrtka
Kobe Armstrong
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- Jul 26, 2011
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Can probably add McQueen to that group too, not that we would be interested in picking him
Kobe Armstrong
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Only if that pick ends up a late 1st. I think a team will grab him earlier though, even if they have to move up. 15-20 range is my guess
Team_Spirit
95% Elliotte
- Jul 3, 2002
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Hagens, I can see, but not Martone. I like O'Brien. He's probably one of the best playmakers in this draft, but he's not particularly physical, and needs to upgrade his pace. He likes to slow the game down a bit too much. He definitely needs to add strength. The kid is like 6'2, 170 lbs.
Sam I Am
Registered User
O'Brien and Mrtka would be who I'd like to see the Habs pick in the first round. Disappointing if they both go top 8. If McQueen is available (which is unlikely as he will almost certainly go in the top 8), I'd grab him.
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themilosh
Registered User
Im calling it now:
Logan Hensler with CGY pick 11th oa
Ivan Ryabkin with MTL pick 18th oa
Estimated_Prophet
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- Mar 28, 2003
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I just threw up in my mouth.......There is zero chance that they even consider Ravensbergen with either of their firsts. Drafting goalies in the first is generally a dumb idea but to use a potential top 20 pick on a goalie who very well will not go in the first round at all is grounds for dismissal......especially when we are already loaded with very good young goalies.
Picking goalies no earlier than mid second round and in most cases 3rd round or later has overwhelmingly proven to be the best method to acquire top goaltending talent.
Scintillating10
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Kobe Armstrong
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That's just where most goalies have been getting picked in recent years because of how weak the goalie classes have been.
If you think a goalie has legit top-15 starter potential, take him in the 1st round no questions asked.
Vasilevski at 19 was a franchise changing pick by the Lightning.
Oettinger at 26
Knight, Askarov, Cossa, and Wallstedt are all coming around nicely too
I think it would be wise to be open minded when it comes to the draft and not box ourselves in with too many rules, if you really believe in a goalie take him whenever you want.
montreal
Go Habs Go
I don't know his game, only saw 1 full game of him so far, he's interesting but I would need to see more and then see what the medical team says. If he drops due to the injury, I'm sure the Habs will at least have some interest unless they are really sold on someone else already.
Draft
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- Jan 23, 2013
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Not a bulging disc. Spars fracture/spondylolysis. It’s a minor fracture in the spine (typically lower back) that occurs due to repetitive stress/hyperextension. A quick growth spurt, under developed core, and over training makes some taller athletes particularly susceptible. Could also be prone to it anatomically. In this case, not severe enough to warrant surgery and treatable with rehab. If it was really bad or a serious defect, he would have gotten surgery. I’m not an expert, but anecdotally, if this was caught early and he’s not dealing with a structural defect or permanent fracture, this is manageable. Getting radiographs/MRI done immediately before the draft would give you a lot of info on how things have healed. May never bother him again (especially if growth/strength/nutrition led to it), may require surgery if it doesn’t heal. More clarity than a disc issue from what I’ve heard.
Playmaker09
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- Sep 11, 2008
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Caught both Brandon (McQueen) vs Moose Jaw (Lakovic) games this weekend. Both look like easy top 12 picks along with Eklund and probably Smith (assuming McQueen's back checks out).
Still not crazy about Smith myself. They also played Seattle (Cootes, Mrtka) twice this past weekend and like every time I see Smith play, he gets beat wide at least once. I think his forward skating and edgework give the illusion of him being a better overall skater than he really is. Kind of like Jiricek but to a lesser extent.
Not really sure he's more than a 2nd pair LHD at the NHL level, which is not that scarce of a position to fill. Hopefully someone else takes him before we pick.
I'd say our likeliest targets are Carbonneau, Martin, Bear and Spence. Any of those 4 remaining + Cootes, Hensler, Kindel with the 2nd first.
Estimated_Prophet
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This is not true at all and I emphatically proved it a while back with a comprehensive list showing that scouting goalies is and always has been almost entirely about luck. Top goaltenders have always been more abundant outside of the top of the draft than any other position by an order of magnitude. It is more than just about the goalie as back up goalies are cheap and easily acquired and the chance of drafting a legitimate starter in the first round are very slim. Goalies are and always have been the most volatile and unpredictable position to draft and they carry the most risk high in the draft as the odds of them becoming a core piece of a contender is lower than any other position.
Then...factor in the fact that the relative rarity of even getting any real value from them while they are cheap and being paid entry level salary. It is close to zero as goalies typically mature/break out around the age that they are nearing, or at UFA status where any team can poach the asset that you spent a 1st round pick and years of development on.
Scouting goalies is voodoo as the position is dependant far more on the mental side than any other position. This is extremely difficult to spot in 18 year old boys and this among the other reasons that I listed is why scouts have universally downgraded the position as a priority. There will be outliers that are so far ahead of their peers that they will tempt a team to reach but the trend does not lie and you need only to talk to a scout to understand this.
This has nothing to do with being close minded on the issue as it is just how the world works and taking bad risks on high leverage acquisitions is just poor business.
Using Askarov, Wallstedt, Cossa amd Knight as examples of why you should take goalies high is nonsensical. Not one of them has proven anything at the NHL level and if you have been paying attention over the decades, goalies like these often end up being backups who never fully realize their potential. You are also entirely missing the point that these players have provided zero value as of yet whereas you may have already got multiple cheap and successful seasons from other positional picks on entry level contracts.
Currently
- Askarov is in his D+5 with 16 NHL games and has already been traded for an underwhelming return for a former 11th OA selection because he was blocked by Saros as is apt to happen at this position and a significant reason why drafting goalies this high is risky.
From Askarov's own draft class........ Both Devon Levi (7th round) and Nico Daws (3rd rd) have already contributed more than Askarov and could potentially end up being better. Even our own Jakub Dobes (5th rd) has almost caught him as has Joel Blomqvist (2nd rd). There is a very good chance that he will not be the best goalie in his class and that goalie is likely to have been picked much later as Blomqvist is the closest to Askarov in his own class and that was 41 picks later. This not to suggest that he is not a top tier goalie prospect but it is unveiling the lack of return and certainty on a premium asset (11th OA pick). If he was a forward or D and he was entering his D+6 with almost zero NHL experience and becoming a UFA and the conclusion of the following season we would be universally annoyed with the selection even if he was showing potential. Why are you holding a goalie to a different standard and if your answer is the expected development time for goalies then you are in agreement with me and don't even realize it.
- Knight is in his D+6 and has 85 games played but is universally considered to be a disappointment thus far as well as an awful pick at 13 in a stacked draft.
- Wallstedt is in his D+4 with 5 NHL games under his belt and is having a terrible season
- Cossa is in his D+4 with 1 NHL game under his belt and Detroit traded up to get him....Dallas took Wyatt Johnston with that pick in the very same draft lol
Go back and look at the drafts and not one of your examples has justified their draft position as of yet. All four could very easily end up being busts and none of them are guaranteed starters in the NHL as is common with high pedigree goalies who can never get the mental side of their game together and succumb to the pressure of failed expectations. Maybe they all turn out great, we have no idea and this is part of the problems with taking goalies that high. You often don't know much more about their future 4 or 5 years after selecting them whereas with other positions you have much greater certainty.
Even naming Oettenger is a relatively weak call as he nearly slipped to the second round and was not a starting goalie until he was in his D+5 and two years away from UFA.
At the end of the day all you really have is Vasilevskiy and he wasn't a starter until his D+5 just like Oettenger but Tampa did risk a higher pick at 19 OA so I will give you that one but this is just anectdotal evidence in the context of the greater discussion. There is zero evidence to support picking goalies with high leverage picks as the success stories are outliers and are dwarfed by the vast majority of top goalies who go mid second or later.
If a team feels strongly that they have a generational goalie then I can understand them taking a flyer on him but the problem is that they will do so with far less confidence than a skater with generational talent and that goalie would be luck to sniff the top ten with today's understandable bias against selecting goalies with high picks.
Can't believe I got sucked into to another silly conversation where anecdotes are used to obfuscate the truth. Feel free to believe what you want to believe but don't limp into the world of rational discourse and expect to come out unscathed.
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Gaylord Q Tinkledink
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- Apr 29, 2018
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Malcolm Spence has low hockey IQ, or something?
Seems like he would be a great add to the prospect pool
Seems like he would be a great add to the prospect pool
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