GDT: 2025 NHL Draft Lottery 5/5/25 at 4:00pm PT (UPD: Sharks will pick 2nd. Isles get 1st)

[TheBigDrunkPanda]

How can you have a worse offense then the team that scored the least amount of goals being 14 goals worse then 2nd worse

It’s only a 14 goal difference between SJ and the fish sticks it shouldn’t even be that close considering

Barclay, Kosim, Thrun, and dellandrea are regulars in the sharks line up

 

[dmcccdmn]

SJS picking 2OA while CHI picking 3OA re-affirmed that our tank and getting that last place matters. Now we don't have to deal the headache of choosing Hagens/Martone/Frondell. There's also a high chance we might end up with Schaefer anyway if Islanders pick Misa.

I think we should stand pat and see whether Islanders pick Misa or not.

Us picking Celebrini at 1OA and Misa at 2OA has a similar feel to Pittsburgh picking Crosby at 1OA and Malkin at 2OA. You can never have too many quality Centers.

 

[matt trick]

If we pick Martone, I trust in Grier and Co. However, you're not going to pick him because he had chemistry with Celebrini at a pre tournament game. Celebrini is going to have chemistry with everyone. Same reason why we don't need to try to trade for Leonard or Perreault. Smith will have chemistry with lots of players.

Who’s the better player Barzal or Rantanen? I preferred Barzal at the draft (didn’t follow it as closely as I do now)because I tend to prefer speed to size, though I did like Zacha as well (thought it’d be a fun pairing with Hertl if I recall). Perhaps this will be a similar situation. Or maybe it’s Connor vs Meier/Crouse.

I feel confident Grier and co will make a good pick. They’re unlikely to get the best player (statistically), but if they get among the best we’ll be quite pleased. They’ve done well, hopefully this ends up being one of their best picks!

 

[sampler]

For each of you, either you prefer misa or martone. What is the difference in the precieved value of the two for you? i.e.: Would you do Misa +late 1st for martone. or vice versa? or indifferent? The answer to this question is crucial for good asset management.

the difference between the #2 and #3 is generally a late 1st. If you prefer Misa or martone by MORE than the value of a late 1st, then you have to calculte the probability you get your preferred player at #3. if the probability is high, then it may be worth trading down and taking the risk anyways.

If the difference between them is LESS than a late 1st, then trade down for sure as you get the return AND you still have the positive probability of getting your top choice anyways.

to help answer this?

Now, Imagine we already picked Misa.....would you trade him for Martone and an approx 30th overall pick?

Now, Imagine we already picked martone..... would you trade him for Misa and an approx 30th overall pick?

--> if yes for both, then trade down.
-- > If no for both, you are irrational or indifferent. Rethink your preferences, or definite trade down.
--> If yes for one and no for other: then you VERY strongly prefer one over the other. In this case ony, consider the probability of getting your preferred player at #3 anyways (seems much higher for martone than misa, I would think), against the return you could get to trade down.

This whole situation is about smart asset management!

 

[sampler]

last year, philly shocked the world by taking Senneke at #3. He was supposed to go as early as 10. had Philly found a trading partner in the 6-8 range, they likely could have gotten a 1st round pick value and still gotten senneke with very high probability. the fact that they took him so early was a failure of asset management, even if he turns out be a great pick.

Granted, you have to find a team that is willing to trade with you, but usually thats a very possible thing to do. teams have their lists and getting the chance to grab people higher on the list has value to most every team.

it seems to me highly likely that Misa is higher ranked and desired than Misa across the league. many had Misa as the #1 pick. if grier prefers Martone, then it would be very wise to take advantage of that differenc in preference between grier and other teams and get a nice return to switch from misa to martone.

 

[coooldude]

the difference between the #2 and #3 is generally a late 1st.

There is no "generally" because trades like this happen so rarely that there are no good market comps. Trade value tables are only so useful in the abstract. This whole situation isn't about smart asset management at the top of the draft - it's about picking the player who has the best chance to make a huge impact within the team you're trying to build. It's why Grier said he'd need to see a ridiculous package to move off 1OA and why he didn't move off Celebrini last year despite, I'm guessing, receiving some offers that might have been asset positive by trade value chart.

 

[gaucholoco3]

If not Schaefer there are 3 options I would be ok with at #2

Misa - As discussed by many he has the highest floor/ceiling combo of any forward in the draft. He does many things well so he can fit with multiple different line combinations. I actually see him as a LW to Smith as Smith is the more natural C who thrives in the center of the ice.

Martone - He has the highest ceiling of the forwards in the draft. I think his size, hands, and playmaking makes him an ideal wing for Celebrini. Also if on a line with Eklund and Celebrini he won’t need to be the mean and physical power forward. Someone mentioned Boldy as a comp and I really like that. The Sharks would have an outstanding home grown top line of Eklund-Celebrini-Martone for 10+ years.

Desnoyers - This is my dark horse. I would personally prefer the other 2 but if the Sharks think he can be that Selke finalist C then that would be incredibly valuable to build the team through the middle. Celebrini-Smith-Desnoyers would lock in the C position for 15 years and with each of them providing different and complementary skills it would provide a lot of flexibility in roster building.

 

[Juxtaposer]

You don't min-max assets at the beginning of the draft, you simply take your player. Imagine if Detroit had tried to trade down in 2019 to take Seider where he was ranked and someone took him higher.

 

[SJS1991]

last year, philly shocked the world by taking Senneke at #3. He was supposed to go as early as 10. had Philly found a trading partner in the 6-8 range, they likely could have gotten a 1st round pick value and still gotten senneke with very high probability. the fact that they took him so early was a failure of asset management, even if he turns out be a great pick.

Granted, you have to find a team that is willing to trade with you, but usually thats a very possible thing to do. teams have their lists and getting the chance to grab people higher on the list has value to most every team.

it seems to me highly likely that Misa is higher ranked and desired than Misa across the league. many had Misa as the #1 pick. if grier prefers Martone, then it would be very wise to take advantage of that differenc in preference between grier and other teams and get a nice return to switch from misa to martone.

Anaheim took sennecke…

 

[sampler]

There is no "generally" because trades like this happen so rarely that there are no good market comps. Trade value tables are only so useful in the abstract. This whole situation isn't about smart asset management at the top of the draft - it's about picking the player who has the best chance to make a huge impact within the team you're trying to build. It's why Grier said he'd need to see a ridiculous package to move off 1OA and why he didn't move off Celebrini last year despite, I'm guessing, receiving some offers that might have been asset positive by trade value chart.

I think the reason that he wouldn't move off 1OA last year is because the difference between celebrini and "the rest" is massive. However, If you offered me Celebrini for Perekh, Senneke, and Levshunov, I would take the deal. However, I doubt any team could offer any kind of deal that makes sense to grab.

This year, the difference between Misa and martone is much closer. You are right that such pick charts are in the abstract. However, that doesnt mean asset management isn't important. Say grier prefers Mrtka as BPA. To take him at #2 would be horrific asset management.

These kinds of trades are rare and it's unlikely to happen. You are very correct, and if such a trade was unavailable or impossible, then take BPA on your list and carry on. But, if such a trade is possible and you don't move due to risk aversion or some perception or whatever, then it's really foolish to leave assets on the table for nothing.

 

[matt trick]

I'd give a 1st (maybe our 2nd or a prospect as well) to get Schaefer rather than Misa. Failing that, I'd rather have Misa than Martone and 30th. However, if Grier felt Martone was the #2 player, I wouldn't be heartbroken taking him at 2. If I were even on them, sure I'd take Toronto's first to move to 3, but I imagine at that point Grier takes his preferred option rather than add #30.

Also, these guys are paid to not be even. They're paid to have an opinion, and speak it.

 

[sampler]

Anaheim took sennecke…

sorry, brain fart.

 

[dmcccdmn]

Based on Grier's last draft, it appears his strategy is to trade a late 1st up to pick a blue chip prospect that has fallen. We could be seeing the same here with him possibly using that DAL's 1st and OTT's 2nd rounder or other assets to trade up. I do like that strategy a lot.

There are people here suggesting trading down from our 2OA? What are you thinking?

 

[SJS1991]

I agree with Jux, if Grier prefers Martone… just take him at 2OA. Trying to move around just leads to trouble.

You move down if you have like 4 guys all EQUALLY rated and you have zero preference. That way if you move down to 5 (in this scenario) you are still, at the very least, getting one of the 4 you had equally ranked.

I just don’t see the Sharks not having a preference at the top of the draft and specifically at number 2.

As many have posted, everything coming for Sharks leadership… sounds like they are very comfortable where they are and the easy chalk at this point is because like consensus… it’s likely a top 2 draft and then the tier drops.

So they just pick the prospect that New York leaves them.

 

[weastern bias]

Watching Martone more makes all the Tkachuk/Wilson/Perry comps seem utterly hilarious because he doesn't really play with an edge, he's big and skilled and goes to the goal mouth but he isn't particularly mean or punishing

The best things about him are his high level playmaking and his hands in tight in front of the net, he really doesn't play the "power forward" game everyone wants to ascribe to him based on his height and weight

He and Misa are both primarily scorers, Misa is the much better scorer, just take Misa

 

[Pinkfloyd]

Based on Grier's last draft, it appears his strategy is to trade a late 1st up to pick a blue chip prospect that has fallen. We could be seeing the same here with him possibly using that DAL's 1st and OTT's 2nd rounder or other assets to trade up. I do like that strategy a lot.

There are people here suggesting trading down from our 2OA? What are you thinking?

I'm sure trading the late 1st is on the table for Grier but last draft isn't really an example of that. The extra 1st the Sharks had last year was 14th and we moved 42 to get from there to 11. Dallas' pick is going to be in the 25-32 range. It's going to cost our 2nd and the Ottawa 2nd to get into the 10-15 range. I don't see really anyone in that range worth losing the picks to take. Not even Mrtka and he's probably the top RHD in this draft which tends to be treated as a premium in the draft as last year showed.

I don't think we're moving off of 2OA. It'd cost too much to move to 1 and there's too much risk moving back considering anyone between Martone, Misa, and Schaefer would be an incredible add to our group regardless.

 

[TheBeard]

don't see really anyone in that range worth losing the picks to take. Not even Mrtka and he's probably the top RHD in this draft which tends to be treated as a premium in the draft as last year showed.

If we can go back to back drafts with the top two Cs and the top LHD and RHD then you absolutely go for it. What could we possibly get in the Dallas 1st, our pick range? Cam Lund? Bystedt? Havelid?

 

[Pinkfloyd]

If we can go back to back drafts with the top two Cs and the top LHD and RHD then you absolutely go for it. What could we possibly get in the Dallas 1st, our pick range? Cam Lund? Bystedt? Havelid?

I think there's a substantial difference between basically Dickinson in last year's draft and Mrtka in this year's draft. I also think it's probable that Mrtka gets taken in the top ten and that's a spot that's probably out of our reach with what we have. I don't think Smith is worth that trade off and I don't think Hensler is either. These guys aren't the same caliber as last year's crop of defensemen in the top end of the draft.

 

[fasterthanlight]

last year, philly shocked the world by taking Senneke at #3. He was supposed to go as early as 10. had Philly found a trading partner in the 6-8 range, they likely could have gotten a 1st round pick value and still gotten senneke with very high probability. the fact that they took him so early was a failure of asset management, even if he turns out be a great pick.

Granted, you have to find a team that is willing to trade with you, but usually thats a very possible thing to do. teams have their lists and getting the chance to grab people higher on the list has value to most every team.

it seems to me highly likely that Misa is higher ranked and desired than Misa across the league. many had Misa as the #1 pick. if grier prefers Martone, then it would be very wise to take advantage of that differenc in preference between grier and other teams and get a nice return to switch from misa to martone.

Ducks lotto luck so bad they lost their top prospect

 

[TheBeard]

I think there's a substantial difference between basically Dickinson in last year's draft and Mrtka in this year's draft. I also think it's probable that Mrtka gets taken in the top ten and that's a spot that's probably out of our reach with what we have. I don't think Smith is worth that trade off and I don't think Hensler is either. These guys aren't the same caliber as last year's crop of defensemen in the top end of the draft.

I mean I wouldn't make the trade or any trade until I know i can get the guy. If he makes it outside the top 10 or 11 Grier needs to do due diligence to see what the cost would be.

 

[dmcccdmn]

I'm sure trading the late 1st is on the table for Grier but last draft isn't really an example of that. The extra 1st the Sharks had last year was 14th and we moved 42 to get from there to 11. Dallas' pick is going to be in the 25-32 range. It's going to cost our 2nd and the Ottawa 2nd to get into the 10-15 range. I don't see really anyone in that range worth losing the picks to take. Not even Mrtka and he's probably the top RHD in this draft which tends to be treated as a premium in the draft as last year showed.

I don't think we're moving off of 2OA. It'd cost too much to move to 1 and there's too much risk moving back considering anyone between Martone, Misa, and Schaefer would be an incredible add to our group regardless.

Using the Pick Value Calculator DAL's 1st and our #33 would garner roughly #17 pick. Using DAL's 1st, our #33 and OTT's 2nd would garner roughly #14 pick.

Last year we didn't expect the 2 coveted Dmen would drop that low. Is there a Dman this year that should be gone higher to look out for a similar drop? Smith? Mrtka?

 

[SJS1991]

Using the Pick Value Calculator DAL's 1st and our #33 would garner roughly #17 pick. Using DAL's 1st, our #33 and OTT's 2nd would garner roughly #14 pick.

Last year we didn't expect the 2 coveted Dmen would drop that low. Is there a Dman this year that should be gone higher to look out for a similar drop? Smith? Mrtka?

Smith is said to be falling. Mrtka is likely a top 12 pick

 

[Pinkfloyd]

I mean I wouldn't make the trade or any trade until I know i can get the guy. If he makes it outside the top 10 or 11 Grier needs to do due diligence to see what the cost would be.

Grier didn't follow this method last year. He moved up before he knew anything. I don't think it's one of those things that it makes a big difference if he does it or not and when it happens but my look at it, I'd probably keep the picks and make selections where they're at for the most part. I don't think any particular RHD is one I feel like we have to have. I can't imagine that there are any forwards beyond the top ten that we have to have but there's always movement at the draft so we'll see. I just don't have much confidence in this crop after the main guys are gone.

Using the Pick Value Calculator DAL's 1st and our #33 would garner roughly #17 pick. Using DAL's 1st, our #33 and OTT's 2nd would garner roughly #14 pick.

Last year we didn't expect the 2 coveted Dmen would drop that low. Is there a Dman this year that should be gone higher to look out for a similar drop? Smith? Mrtka?

Anybody outside the top four or six could drop hypothetically. Lots of the guys in that 10-20 range could be made a reach in the top 10 too. There's a lot of potential variance in this draft because most of them just don't stand out from one another. Trends are that centers and RHD's tend to go higher than everyone else though.

 

[Friday]

Grier didn't follow this method last year. He moved up before he knew anything. I don't think it's one of those things that it makes a big difference if he does it or not and when it happens but my look at it, I'd probably keep the picks and make selections where they're at for the most part. I don't think any particular RHD is one I feel like we have to have. I can't imagine that there are any forwards beyond the top ten that we have to have but there's always movement at the draft so we'll see. I just don't have much confidence in this crop after the main guys are gone.

Anybody outside the top four or six could drop hypothetically. Lots of the guys in that 10-20 range could be made a reach in the top 10 too. There's a lot of potential variance in this draft because most of them just don't stand out from one another. Trends are that centers and RHD's tend to go higher than everyone else though.

That was such a bold move that turned out to be genius. I think that pick might have been more expensive if everyone knew Buium and Dickinson would still be there.

Im not sure if MG has to move around but if Jackson Smith falls to 12-16 then run it. But its entirely possible to stay put at 28 ish and 33 and still walk away with 2 of Boumedienne / Fiddler / Brzustewicz / Limatov

 

[dmcccdmn]

That was such a bold move that turned out to be genius. I think that pick might have been more expensive if everyone knew Buium and Dickinson would still be there

Last year, it was widely known where the drop off in talent was, and Grier trade into right before that drop off. Does anyone know where the huge drop off in talent is this year?