GDT: 2025 NHL Draft Lottery 5/5/25 at 4:00pm PT (UPD: Sharks will pick 2nd. Isles get 1st)

[TheBeard]

You're essentially arguing that buying lottery tickets is a good financial plan because hey, someone's gotta win.

Counting on longshot odds to come through and buttress the future of a team that's otherwise kinda in the middle is not a strategy. It's dumb luck. Yes, having just a 25% chance to win the lottery from #1 is luck too, but at least it's doing it from the best possible odds of success and from the point of being a team that is not in position to compete as they are constructed at the time.

I’m not sure what else you expected the islanders to do. I doubt the plan to win the draft lotto was in the back of the heads.

 

[SJS1991]

FWIW, Martone was compared to Perry and Matty T by others.

Oh I know… it’s why I mentioned them. But again you have to believe Martone is that.

I have heard Tavares for Misa. Again these are just comps. You have to believe that they will become “like” these players.

 

[The McMafia]

We had a 25% chance to pick #1 overall and a less than 45% chance to pick 1 or 2 overall. Two years in a row.
We ended up with one #1 and one #2. I'm not going to try to math that out, but I'm pretty sure the odds will say that we have been fortunate rather than unfortunate the last 2 years.

In three consecutive drafts, the Sharks got a #4 pick in a draft with a significant drop off after #5, a #1 pick in a draft where there was a significant gap between #1 and #2, and a #2 in a draft with a significant gap between #2 and #3. I don't know how much fortunate they could have gotten!

 

[Sturminator]

I'm trying to think of who the funniest semi-realistic pick could be and it might be Roger McQueen.

On the other hand, there is a non-zero chance James Hagens goes first.

 

[Jargon]

In three consecutive drafts, the Sharks got a #4 pick in a draft with a significant drop off after #5, a #1 pick in a draft where there was a significant gap between #1 and #2, and a #2 in a draft with a significant gap between #2 and #3. I don't know how much fortunate they could have gotten!

Not to mention the #1 pick was in a year with a franchise-changing superstar. Unlike, say, this year.

 

[SJS1991]

In three consecutive drafts, the Sharks got a #4 pick in a draft with a significant drop off after #5, a #1 pick in a draft where there was a significant gap between #1 and #2, and a #2 in a draft with a significant gap between #2 and #3. I don't know how much fortunate they could have gotten!

There is also interesting analytics out there that basically says unless if you “know”/think you are getting Quinn Hughes or Makar… it’s better to just leave defense to the late first or second round and draft centers/forwards at the top of drafts.

More so because they are easier to project.

 

[Rehabguy]

Islanders have goal scoring problems worse than the sharks you’d think they’d go after Misa. Their D is serviceable and doesn’t lose them the games as much as their inability to score goals does. But who knows sharks win regardless

They also have Calum Ritchie now and elite level sniper in Eiserman. Schaefer makes the most sense.

 

[Shark Finn]

The draft just got exciting. We either have our forward core set for over a decade or get a key piece to our defence.

I really don't mind the Isles winning. Good for them, I suppose. So much for my dream of them picking third. Kind of makes me wonder what they do with Dobson if they pick Schaefer. Probably just sign him.

 

[Juxtaposer]

They also have Calum Ritchie now and elite level sniper in Eiserman. Schaefer makes the most sense.

Neither of those players are going to be top line NHL scorers, and you can count on that.

 

[Pinkfloyd]

If the Sharks draft Misa, they could very well throw out these 3 lines this upcoming season: (yes I know Misa is considering going to NCAA, but IMHO he's good enough for the NHL now)

Eklund-Celebrini-Toffoli
Cherny-Misa-Graf
Musty-Smith-Halttunen/Cardwell/UFA

And this right there would make Sharks hockey in 25-26 very fun to watch as a fan.

I would have no problems starting next season with this sort of top nine:

Eklund-Celebrini-Toffoli
Wennberg-Smith-Graf
Chernyshov-Misa-a vet like Reilly Smith

 

[Shark Finn]

And oh, the draft wasn't rigged in the favor of the Sharks? Color me absolutely shocked.

 

[The McMafia]

There is also interesting analytics out there that basically says unless if you “know”/think you are getting Quinn Hughes or Makar… it’s better to just leave defense to the late first or second round and draft centers/forwards at the top of drafts.

More so because they are easier to project.

If you stick by the old adage that defensemen take longer to develop, then spending later picks on defensive projects isn't a bad decision.

I actually don't think the Sharks defense prospects are that poor. There's no definite #1 or #2 guy but between Dickinson, LSW & Pohlkamp (both of which seem to have a decent chance to be NHLers per some of the stat modeling floating around), Muhk, and Cagnoni, the depth may be there.

Grab a #1 in the next couple of years (we're still gonna be in the lottery) when you have to draft for need and gather more chances to get a hit on a Vlasic or Faber in the top 50 this year.

 

[Rehabguy]

Neither of those players are going to be top line NHL scorers, and you can count on that.

Need to watch Eiserman more

 

[weastern bias]

In three consecutive drafts, the Sharks got a #4 pick in a draft with a significant drop off after #5, a #1 pick in a draft where there was a significant gap between #1 and #2, and a #2 in a draft with a significant gap between #2 and #3. I don't know how much fortunate they could have gotten!

The Sharks have been dodging the line of demarcation like f***ing Neo

Today is a good day, not Celebrini-good, but very good

 

[Juxtaposer]

Need to watch Eiserman more

He's your garden variety early bloomer, great finisher. Probably has several years as a legit second liner and regular goal-scorer, but I would be absolutely shocked if he were ever a serious top line forward. You can't be that on finishing alone unless you are literally Alex Ovechkin.

I bet my Cal Ritchie take is a bit hotter, since a lot of people don't believe in Eiserman, but I also do not remotely see first line skill there. 60 point soft-minutes 2C in his prime would be a great outcome for him IMO.

 

[sharski]

The Sharks have been dodging the line of demarcation like f***ing Neo

Today is a good day, not Celebrini-good, but very good

next season is a heat check where GMMG will actually try to escape the bottom 5 in the standings but lottery win his way into the top pick

 

[weastern bias]

next season is a heat check where GMMG will actually try to escape the bottom 5 in the standings but lottery win his way into the top pick

Mike Grier seeing the world in Matrix code.gif

 

[TheBeard]

Mike Grier seeing the world in Matrix code.gif

 

[gaucholoco3]

We had a 25% chance to pick #1 overall and a less than 45% chance to pick 1 or 2 overall. Two years in a row.
We ended up with one #1 and one #2. I'm not going to try to math that out, but I'm pretty sure the odds will say that we have been fortunate rather than unfortunate the last 2 years.

Aren’t the odds always 3.25%? Same as a coin flip.

 

[gaucholoco3]

Can you imagine how the draft show would have been if this format was last year and they had to redraw the numbers multiple times for the #2 pick. That would have been entertaining especially after already securing the #1 pick.

 

[Star Platinum]

My bad. I meant it did. Lol. Not sure why I said the opposite.

If I had a nickel for every time I typed something while thinking something else, I could buy the team from Hasso. And as I age, it's getting worse.

Edit is my friend.

 

[Star Platinum]

If the Sharks draft Misa, they could very well throw out these 3 lines this upcoming season: (yes I know Misa is considering going to NCAA, but IMHO he's good enough for the NHL now)

Misa needs another year in a tougher league before NHL IMO. CHL competition is not as stiff as it once was. Celebrini dominated NCAA hockey in his draft year. I'd like to see Misa do the same.

 

[Star Platinum]

On the other hand, there is a non-zero chance James Hagens goes first.

The draft lottery results have officially started my super curmudgeon mode, which I will be in starting today until June 27. So here's curmudgeon post #1.

There is no f***ing way that James Hagens is going first. Teams don't draft players because of who they rooted for as youngsters or having grown up near the team.

 

[tiburon12]

Some things i'm thinking about w/r/t the Isles' decision:

• Who (as in the management team) is making their pick now that Lou is gone?
• What's your window here? is taking Misa a repeat of Tavares and Barzal?
• Does Dallas shutting down Colorado without a #1D make them think they have enough in Dobson, who is a righty (premium handedness)?
• Do they think Ritchie is better than Misa? or if not better, will be faster to develop to meet their window?
• If they take Misa, do you sell Barzal and fully rebuild, with Misa being the lucky first piece?

 

[Le Rosbeef]

For anyone interested, there's a great article on Misa on the Athletic.

Talks about his competitiveness standing out above all.
And character.
And 200ft game.

There's zero way Grier passes on him if the Isles take Schaefer. ZERO.