2025 NHL Draft: Lose a ton for Porter Martone

[bitmeister]

.

 

[Grinner]

The way I see it: I want either Schaefer, Misa, a massive package of picks/prospects to trade down, or trade down for a top 4 NHL D (like from from 3 to 7 for Byram).

The amount of movement in the draft rankings this year is absurd, and it signals a wide open field, in which draft order is of less importance than most years.

last year, it was clear that D was the org need after the obvious celly pick. There were 6D in the draft class worth targeting (Yak, Lev, Silayev, Dick, Buium, Perekh). grier had #14. he flipped #42 to move to 11 (which was approx 40 pt trade value for 80 pts, thus a bad move on paper). The bet was that one of those D would be available there. It paid off, and we got Dick. That year being #8, 10, or 11 were all pretty similar, while being number 14 was a huge difference.

This time Schaefer is the clear target, but if they cannot get him, then there is no other clear goal. D remains the key org need, but unlike last time, there is not a clear top D class after schaefer. Mrtka, Smith, Hensler, Aitcheson.... All are very much second tier players. Misa and hagens are the class acts of this draft at forward. martone, Frondell, and co seem tire 2. Thus if we miss out on schaef and misa, then the next best option is to fill current NHL/Future NHL level D needs by trading down or taking more swings due to a less clear draft order and hope to hit the HR.

lastly, this may be the year to trade down from 3 if we cannot move up to 1. Given the clear line between the top 3 picks and the rest of the draft class, the sharks #3 pick may be extremely attractive to a ton of teams, as Hagens was a #1 consensus pick and i think remains considered a class above the rest. I wouldnt be surprised to see teams pony up to get that #3 if it comes to that.

All of this assumed terrible luck, but you gotta play the hand your dealt. Hagens just does not fit Grier's vision, so drafting him and then trading him away is likely to land a whole lot less than shopping the #3 for a nice package.

#3 to nashville for number 5 and a their two late 1sts.

or #3 to buffalo for 7 and Byram

or #3 to Philly for #6 and their late 1sts.

OR, is this a schaefer or bust draft? i.e. if they finish 3rd, do they trade all their picks in this entire draft to go from 1 to 3 and just walk away with schaefer alone? If chicago or buffalo wins the lottery, I think they would snatch that deal in an instant. its actually a similar equivalent trade value...

I'd prefer to try and pry Forester away from the Flyers.

 

[gaucholoco3]

I dunno where the huge drop is. Ive seen such a wide variety of rankings that I have no clue where everyone slots in. Seems like with this draft, just take as many stabs as you can or go for broke on Schaefer.

Also, I was reading a bunch out of chicago and it really feels as if they do not want to win the lottery as they disqualify themselves for next year while gaining little. They really are likely to take Misa over Schaefer if they win, or at least are close to indifferent.

Also, the more I think about it, the more I like the idea of a pick swap.

We get #1, they get #2 this year. they get the higher of ours and theirs next year post lottery.

In the end:
Chicago gets: Misa (their franchise #1C), a chance at Mckenna with our pick which would be lottery qualified or their own pick if they finish dead last. And, if we finish last and they finish much higher, they functionally might move up a lot and give themselves a much higher chance at mckenna, or just a much higher pick overall.

SJ gets Schaefer and the worst of our own pick or Chicago's pick next year post lottery. obviously if we finish 2nd to last and chicago finishes last, they were have a 25.5% of getting Mckenna plus our 13.5%, giving them nearly 40% chance of mckenna, and a very good chance of picking very high either way.

Fascinating concept. Big win for them, clear downgrade next year for us, but we get our guy this year for sure.

Yeah Chicago winning the lottery creates the scenario which I thought would be too statistically unlikely to happen. I’m guessing their fans truly don’t want to win #1 this year since they will probably get their preferred target anyways at 2. I don’t think it is likely but I think a Pick swap both years if Chicago gets #1 overall this year would be a win win for everyone.

 

[fasterthanlight]

I am not into the idea of throwing away any chance at McKenna to move up 1 spot. If chicago is 1 and we are 2, I bet there's a deal to be made that enables us to get schaefer without disqualifying us from a shot at McKenna. That deal might well be "no deal" because they could take Misa anyway.

 

[Grinner]

Yeah Chicago winning the lottery creates the scenario which I thought would be too statistically unlikely to happen. I’m guessing their fans truly don’t want to win #1 this year since they will probably get their preferred target anyways at 2. I don’t think it is likely but I think a Pick swap both years if Chicago gets #1 overall this year would be a win win for everyone.

What their fans want is irrelevant. The Hawks are not going to want to trade a sure thing for a maybe next year.

 

[gaucholoco3]

I am not into the idea of throwing away any chance at McKenna to move up 1 spot. If chicago is 1 and we are 2, I bet there's a deal to be made that enables us to get schaefer without disqualifying us from a shot at McKenna. That deal might well be "no deal" because they could take Misa anyway.

The only reason Chicago would do it is to improve their chances of McKenna. He is overhyped as an offensive only wing. There have been so few of those players in history I’m not buying it.

 

[gaucholoco3]

What their fans want is irrelevant. The Hawks are not going to want to trade a sure thing for a maybe next year.

Losing the chance to draft a player who is seen by scouts as generational and happens to be the cousin of your franchise player is why the Hawks would want to do it.

 

[Grinner]

Losing the chance to draft a player who is seen by scouts as generational and happens to be the cousin of your franchise player is why the Hawks would want to do it.

There's no guarantee the Sharks will finish last or win the draw to pick 1st.
Chicago could very well win the pick by finishing last themselves.
Seems it would be more likely to make the pick at 1 and then play the odds for 2026.
If they really want Misa, then either pick him at 1, or get some small add from SJ to swap 1sts. Something like Ottawas 2nd.
If they really want to draft Schaefer. Then they'll not move off the pick

 

[gaucholoco3]

There's no guarantee the Sharks will finish last or win the draw to pick 1st.
Chicago could very well win the pick by finishing last themselves.
Seems it would be more likely to make the pick at 1 and then play the odds for 2026.
If they really want Misa, then either pick him at 1, or get some small add from SJ to swap 1sts. Something like Ottawas 2nd.
If they really want to draft Schaefer. Then they'll not move off the pick

I don’t think they would want to finish last so they would value the pick swap in 2026. They could stipulate that they get the Sharks 2nd if they don’t swap picks. Including the Ottawa 2nd in addition to the pick swap would also be worth it for the Sharks.

 

[Grinner]

I don’t think they would want to finish last so they would value the pick swap in 2026. They could stipulate that they get the Sharks 2nd if they don’t swap picks. Including the Ottawa 2nd in addition to the pick swap would also be worth it for the Sharks.

I'm not overly opposed. We'd still be getting a pick in the top 3 in 2026. And of course Schaefer

 

[sharski]

If sharks pick #3, how does Schaefer compare to the lottery pick defensemen in 2026

I spy a 6'4" RHD in keaton verhoeff... Like, how can you say no to that

 

[TheWayToRefJose]

Just a reminder to not get too worked up about who with land with on draft day.

No one knows the true outcome for several years. There’s been lot of fan bases upset with who they got on draft day that turned out to be ecstatic with who they got 3 years down the line.

 

[vortexx]

Elite Prospects Final draft rankings discussion

 

[gaucholoco3]

If sharks pick #3, how does Schaefer compare to the lottery pick defensemen in 2026

I spy a 6'4" RHD in keaton verhoeff... Like, how can you say no to that

This time last year 6’4” RHD Hensler was seen as the #2 prospect. Just dwell on that.

I have said it before today. Schaefer is the best D prospect since Dahlin. He is levels above Verhoeff.

 

[Bizz]

I spy a 6'4" RHD in keaton verhoeff... Like, how can you say no to that

easy, it sounds too similar to "Ehrhoff"

 

[Roasted Nuts]

Schaefer isn’t levels above Verheoff, let alone at the same level. Verheoff literally doubled Schaefer‘s point productions in their respective
D-1 years, with Verheoff’s stat line (63 gp 21-24-45) compared to Schaefer’s stat line (56 gp 3-14-17). And Schaefer doesn’t have the handicap of a late birthday to fall back on considering Verheoff is a late June one too. And Verheoff is much beefier at 6’4 212 compared to Schaefer at 6’2 183. I find Verheoffs actual production and the size to be much more enticing than a “could be” projection in Schaefer.

 

[Roasted Nuts]

I find Schaefer to be the most overhyped prospect of this century. People are saying that Bedard is overhyped, but at least he had 143 points in his draft year. Schaefer has a grand total of 22 points this season, and scouts are proclaiming him to become the next Dahlin.

 

[gaucholoco3]

Schaefer isn’t levels above Verheoff, let alone at the same level. Verheoff literally doubled Schaefer‘s point productions in their respective
D-1 years, with Verheoff’s stat line (63 gp 21-24-45) compared to Schaefer’s stat line (56 gp 3-14-17). And Schaefer doesn’t have the handicap of a late birthday to fall back on considering Verheoff is a late June one too. And Verheoff is much beefier at 6’4 212 compared to Schaefer at 6’2 183. I find Verheoffs actual production and the size to be much more enticing than a “could be” projection in Schaefer.

Points are not everything and maybe you can cut a 16 year old some slack when his billet mother and birth mother die during the season. I can’t speak to Verheoff as I have never seen him or even read a scouting report but Schaefer is the real deal.

 

[Roasted Nuts]

Points are not everything and maybe you can cut a 16 year old some slack when his billet mother and birth mother die during the season. I can’t speak to Verheoff as I have never seen him or even read a scouting report but Schaefer is the real deal.

Objectively speaking, projections have to be based on data and everything on ice. I understand, it’s very hard and difficult for a 16 year old to face such a tragedy of losing their loved one’s. But that’s besides the point, and not included as a justification for why he should be ranked higher. It just doesn’t have direct correlation to on ice performance. If that were the case, then the personal situation of all prospects should be considered in their scouting reports.

 

[Juxtaposer]

Schaefer isn’t levels above Verheoff, let alone at the same level. Verheoff literally doubled Schaefer‘s point productions in their respective
D-1 years, with Verheoff’s stat line (63 gp 21-24-45) compared to Schaefer’s stat line (56 gp 3-14-17). And Schaefer doesn’t have the handicap of a late birthday to fall back on considering Verheoff is a late June one too. And Verheoff is much beefier at 6’4 212 compared to Schaefer at 6’2 183. I find Verheoffs actual production and the size to be much more enticing than a “could be” projection in Schaefer.

Good thing development is always linear.

 

[Roasted Nuts]

Good thing development is always linear.

But the head start that Verheoff has over Schaefer is already considerable. Verheoff literally has more goals than Schaefer has points in their D-1 seasons. Unless Schaefer has a exponential increase in production, I would go with the proven producer in Verheoff.

 

[Patty Ice]

Schaefer isn’t levels above Verheoff, let alone at the same level. Verheoff literally doubled Schaefer‘s point productions in their respective
D-1 years, with Verheoff’s stat line (63 gp 21-24-45) compared to Schaefer’s stat line (56 gp 3-14-17). And Schaefer doesn’t have the handicap of a late birthday to fall back on considering Verheoff is a late June one too. And Verheoff is much beefier at 6’4 212 compared to Schaefer at 6’2 183. I find Verheoffs actual production and the size to be much more enticing than a “could be” projection in Schaefer.

Verhoeff is a quality prospect but I don't think his offensive numbers carry over to the NHL. His defense is his bread and butter. He is more Ekblad than anything else.

Seeing the dmen who are top scorers in the NHL, they all are elite skaters with elite vision, traits that Schaefer shares. Junior numbers are deceptive in that they don't tell the real story.

All that said, Sharks still have a need for a Verhoeff so I say

 

[karltonian]

that analysis seems verheoff

 

[Juxtaposer]

But the head start that Verheoff has over Schaefer is already considerable. Verheoff literally has more goals than Schaefer has points in their D-1 seasons. Unless Schaefer has an exponential increase in production, I would go with the proven producer in Verheoff.

Ahh, so you're purely stat-watching.

 

[Roasted Nuts]

Ahh, so you're purely stat-watching.

Scott Wheeler of the Athletic has him as potential top D for 2026