2025 NHL Draft: Lose a ton for Porter Martone

[TheBeard]

It's not "just a morale victory" if Smith/Macklin/Eklund take another step but the worst defense in the league keeps us towards the bottom of the standings (likely)

This is the very definition of a moral victory.

 

[Jargon]

I can't say that until I see how the offseason goes. I would certainly hope that the team that we ice for Opening Night is considerably stronger than the one we've iced for the last few months.

Grier is has been very honest with his plans, so I’ll take his word at wanting to improve.

The question obviously is if he’ll be able to make the moves he wants to make. I very much get the impression that he wants to see improvement — and I’m going to take a guess and suggest Hasso will be expecting it too.

 

[spintops]

This is the very definition of a moral victory.

It's progress if guys are improving, even if they don't hit TheBeard's required win total

 

[Star Platinum]

Grier is has been very honest with his plans, so I’ll take his word at wanting to improve.

The question obviously is if he’ll be able to make the moves he wants to make. I very much get the impression that he wants to see improvement — and I’m going to take a guess and suggest Hasso will be expecting it too.

If we're not a lot better in six months, it won't be for lack of trying. But free agents have to want to come here and every open spot that isn't filled by a free agent means more draft pick capital we have to use to get guys who have to come here.

 

[matt trick]

Defense Current Situation:
#4- Ferraro- 4/5 defensive d-man lacking size
#4- Muk two-way D with size, skating, but questions on injuries, offensive ability, consistency, and proven top 4 ability.
#5- Liljigren- #5 PMD not a powerplay asset
#6 Dickinson- Projects as a top 4 two-way D as soon as 2026-2027 (not top 4 next year), very raw
#7 Desharnis- Large pk specialist who ideally doesn't play more than 40 games
AHL- Cagnoni- potential #5 PMD and PP specialist by 2026-2027

Hopefully add:
#3/4 Two-way or defensive d-man (multi-year solution)
#3/4 Offensive or two-way d-man (can run a PP better than Liljigren)


Potentially (Quite Optimistic!) Available in the next two years:
This year:

• Two-way/Defensive UFAs: Provorov, Gavrikov, Orlov, Ekblad, Ceci (good bottom pair)
• Two-way/Offensive UFAs: Pionk, Fabbro, Burns
• Trade Block: Bouchard (?), Dobson, K. Miller, Clarke, Byram, Karlsson, Hamilton/Nemec/Casey, Pulock (all off d-men), Romanov (offer sheet target)

Next year:

• Offensive UFAs: Andersson, Walman, Matheson
• Defensive UFAs: Murphy, Trouba, Gudas, Peeke, Kulak, Jensen (almost all old)
• Offensive/Two-Way Trade Block: Sanheim (rebuild- NTC), McAvoy (rebuild- NMC), Drysdale
• Defensive D Trade Block: Whitecloud, Korczak, Ristolainen (2 years left), Schneider (RFA for NYR), Moser (RFA for TBL)

Bolded the guys I like (fit, forecasted cap, capability), bold+underline, those that I love. Half of the trade block guys never even get considered to be moved. I expect a few FAs- Gavrikov, Ekblad, Miller end up re-signing. I wouldn't be interested in moving major assets for Byram, Dobson, or K. Miller if we got Schaefer. In short, it's pretty damn grim! Also, Ferraro wouldn't rank too badly on this list, and he'd want to stay. Maybe we do keep him.

Schaefer Plan
With Schaefer, if we got shut out on top 4 RHDs, I could live with a couple of solid bottom pair guys like Ceci. Burns is a different type, but on a one-year deal he can eat 18-20 minutes a night and run the PP. He's struggled quite a bit this year, would be >40, and wouldn't have Slavin. Even so, I think he'd be significantly better at getting the puck to the young forwards. Send him to any team he wants to go to for a 7th to chase a cup at the deadline. Let him hang (but not pair with!) Dickinson for 60 games. Dickinson takes over PP1. Burns and Ceci would significantly improve our current D- it's awful.

Mid-term, Schaefer, Dickinson, Muk, (bolded acquisition), Ceci, and TBD #6 could grow into a mediocre unit quickly (current group is league worst before injuries!). Maybe you keep Ferraro or Liljigren at the right price as your number 5. They're both relatively young. It's not contender ready, but you can squint and see a playoff caliber D if/when Schaefer and Dickinson take off.

Non-Schaefer Plan
If we don't get Schaefer, I'm even more open to keeping one of Ferraro or Lilly. At that point all the more offensively leaning top 4 D would also become interesting. They don't fit on a team with Schaefer and Dickinson. Ferraro-Dobson, Muk-Ceci, Dickinson-UFA 2026.

Grier will take strides on the defense, but even if Schaefer was a top 4 D on day 1, I think it'll still take two offseasons. The only guys I'm reasonably confident we'll want on the roster in two years is Muk and Dickinson. Ferraro or Lilly at the bottom of the pairings is fine as long as their isn't a regrettable contract.

Note: I used Ceci as something of a placeholder for a guy who is a good bottom pair d-man, but could play top 4. Not great, but won't drive you absolutely bonkers in that role.

 

[coooldude]

God, EVERY time I see Fabbro mocked to us, I can't, just CANNOT understand why we didn't pick him up.

 

[matt trick]

God, EVERY time I see Fabbro mocked to us, I can't, just CANNOT understand why we didn't pick him up.

One other positive of finishing last, we get first choice on all pre-season waivers and then through the first two months of the season. Fabbro was outside that window (and a random day where we jumped from 2nd to 1st), but the point remains. As does the point that we should have picked him up.

Also would have been amusing to ice:

Walman-Ceci
Ferraro-Fabbro
Muk-Liljigren

On a Ferraro and cheap pickups defensive core.

 

[TheBeard]

It's progress if guys are improving, even if they don't hit TheBeard's required win total

I’m starting to really feel some of you actually prefer being in the basement because there’s no stress. That it’s easier to root for loses because you already know it’ll happen far more often than not.

I never imagined expecting a 30th place product vs a 32nd place product would be seen as such lofty expectations. It’s the difference of a few fewer Georgiev meltdowns and cutting the number of third period implosions by half.

 

[spintops]

I’m starting to really feel some of you actually prefer being in the basement because there’s no stress. That it’s easier to root for loses because you already know it’ll happen far more often than not.

I never imagined expecting a 30th place product vs a 32nd place product would be seen as such lofty expectations. It’s the difference of a few fewer Georgiev meltdowns and cutting the number of third period implosions by half.

I expect and hope they improve. There's just more nuance to it then:
30th in the standings = success.
31st = absolute failure!

 

[TheBeard]

I expect and hope they improve. There's just more nuance to it then:
30th in the standings = success.
31st = absolute failure!

It’s not about placement, it’s about on ice improvement. Blowing third period leads should be something they cut down on. Getting horrendous goaltending 80% of the time shouldn’t be something we accept.

So yes, if Grier doesn’t make an effort to put forth a product to improve our biggest weaknesses then it would be a failure.

 

[Barrie22]

I’m starting to really feel some of you actually prefer being in the basement because there’s no stress. That it’s easier to root for loses because you already know it’ll happen far more often than not.

I never imagined expecting a 30th place product vs a 32nd place product would be seen as such lofty expectations. It’s the difference of a few fewer Georgiev meltdowns and cutting the number of third period implosions by half.

Because there is more to improving then just points and wins in the standings.

This year was a successful season because it showed that celebrini can be a franchise #1 center and smith can be a near point per game winger.

Mukhamadullin showed that he can be a #4 defensemen at the nhl level if he can stay healthy.

Askarov showed that he can play at the nhl level, just needs to figure out the consistency to be considered a starting goalie.

And then at the team level, we seen an improvement in wins, points and point % with 3 games remaining.

We have seen a near 30 goal difference for goals scored, and as of today a 20 goal difference in goals against. And a +50 difference in goal difference.

 

[coooldude]

Maybe we shouldn't fixate on "how many wins" or "how many points" but instead is there a clear jump up into "not absolutely bottom of league."

For example... Chicago added a lot in the offseason (remember Corey Perry?) and were seen as making great moves, but in the end they are still dogshit. That has to be seen as a rough year... only bright spots, really, are Levshunov and Rinzel having good debuts. Bedard treaded water and now has a lot of people questioning whether he's going to be able to play C, lead the team to the promised land, etc. They get rewarded with another top pick but the rebuild is a bit riskier this year than last.

If we add 10 wins and are near 30 and yet we still end up 31st worst, but there have been major steps forward by Smith/Celebrini, and some of our good young prospects debut and look good, and Askarov looks like a top 15 starting goalie, then sure, OK, we were 31st and not 30th or 29th but it was a big step forward and Grier probably did his job.

But if we have the year Chicago had, I think what @TheBeard is saying is that we shouldn't be happy just because we get another top 3-4 pick. We should be concerned and really needing/demanding to see a vision forward... which is what a lot of the discourse is around Chicago this end of season.

 

[matt trick]

I’m starting to really feel some of you actually prefer being in the basement because there’s no stress. That it’s easier to root for loses because you already know it’ll happen far more often than not.

I never imagined expecting a 30th place product vs a 32nd place product would be seen as such lofty expectations. It’s the difference of a few fewer Georgiev meltdowns and cutting the number of third period implosions by half.

Certainly don't want the team to be in the basement, and I similarly want the team to make significant additions. However, I want those to be sound long-term ROI (no buyouts/anchors during contending years) or very good short term ROI (overpays that end by the end of Celebrini's 4th or maybe 5th year). Moreover, I want to give Grier two years to make said acquisitions.

We'd regret the following offseason as much as one where we didn't do much

Ehlers- $9Mx7
Ekblad- $8.5Mx7
Fabbro- 6x$5.5M
Frederic- 5x$4.5M
Allen- 4x$4.5M

Hits everything I want (aside from a better 3C than Frederic), but it saddles us with 5 contractes that will ultimately prove regrettable. I'm even cool with one or two 'that'll suck' contracts simply because it gives the kids more talent while they develop.

My goals are less standings (which we represent 1/32nd of) and more goal differential. Was hoping to go from -150 to -75 this year. With all the selling and fourgiev replacing Blackwood, that was unrealistic. I think -60 next year is a solid target. That would be third this year. I'd have seen it possible to get out of the bottom 5 if we retained Walman, Granny, and Zetts and added a little.

 

[coooldude]

My goals are less standings (which we represent 1/32nd of) and more goal differential. Was hoping to go from -150 to -75 this year. With all the selling and fourgiev replacing Blackwood, that was unrealistic. I think -60 next year is a solid target. That would be third this year. I'd have seen it possible to get out of the bottom 5 if we retained Walman, Granny, and Zetts and added a little.

ex ENG's, last year's GD was -107, this year is -56, T(2nd worst) and then there's a big jump to 4th worst. So actually close to your "50% better" jump. Next year getting to -30 to -40 (ex ENG) gets us into the bottom 5 but not bottom 10.

Once you're a mediocre team, the margins are super thin between them. Lots of puck luck from 17th place to 25th place.

 

[matt trick]

On the Marner topic, I'm somewhat pro. Get out of Toronto, and I think he'll deliver. He also plays a position of need (RW), albeit a secondary need. I also like keeping him away from Chicago, and I'd argue we're a better landing spot anyway (Patty+Joe, Celebrini>Bedard)

My primary concern isn't playoff performance, but how having him impacts Celebrini's 2nd contract. Pay Marner $14M, now don't you need pay Celebrini at least $14M as well? Probably even more likely when he gets a 100 point winger on his right?

The biggest comparable contracts for July 1st 2026 (first day eligible for extension) are likely something like

McDavid- $16M+* (likely done this summer?)
Draisaitl- $14M
Kaprizov- $14M+* (if retained by MIN)
Eichel- $14M+*
Matthews- $13.25M
McKinnon- $12.6M
Rantanen- $12M

Bedard? Kyle Connor? North of $10.5M?


Will Celebrini be using McDavid, Draisaitl, McKinnon, Matthews, and Kaprizov as comparables? Kind of doubt it. Bedard obviously will be, and like I said, I think he's better so if Chicago gives Bedard $12M I guess we'll be doing the same. I have a hard time imagining Celebrini and Pat Brisson (who's got some reasonable big deals....and Petersson) pointing to Rantanen or beyond and saying we want that one. Course if he waits a year, that value will likely inflate, but he may want to get it done quickly.

 

[weastern bias]

I will say this in agreement with people who are deadset on needing to see us move up the standings next year, the whole "vibes are great" narrative is going to absolutely DIE early next season and the mood is going to be more similar to the season the Blackhawks had this year

Even this year the whole "most fun last place team" thing they're selling is largely just cope, you can see in Celebrini and Smith's faces that they aren't having nearly as much fun as the organization is trying to sell to the fans, and next year (when we ARE bad again, sorry but it's gonna happen) there's going to be a more pointed criticism of coaching and management than we saw this season

The front office got to benefit from the timeline being extended by losing the lotto in 23, not having a draft pick join the team that year and not winning until 24, we've really tanked for 3 straight years now, it's just that Karlsson ruined our best efforts to get Bedard in his quest to get the f*** out of town

I get why people are frustrated, I don't like losing either, it's just our unfortunate reality that we're not close to being competitive and we still won't be next year, but the heat will certainly get turned up on Mike and Wario as a result, I just maintain that it is still largely due to how little real high value assets they had to work with when they got here and we're in a MUCH better place right now than we were 3 years ago when Grier got the job

 

[Pinkfloyd]

I’m starting to really feel some of you actually prefer being in the basement because there’s no stress. That it’s easier to root for loses because you already know it’ll happen far more often than not.

I never imagined expecting a 30th place product vs a 32nd place product would be seen as such lofty expectations. It’s the difference of a few fewer Georgiev meltdowns and cutting the number of third period implosions by half.

What good does placing a rigid 30th vs 32nd expectation do though? Nothing that truly matters. They could and probably should reach that goal next season with the right moves. It’s hardly the end of the world if they don’t. They’re still in the early stages of building the team around rookie Celebrini and Smith. You have an issue with people not pushing hard enough for such a marginal improvement that doesn’t really mean much at the end of the day.

 

[TheBeard]

What good does placing a rigid 30th vs 32nd expectation do though? Nothing that truly matters. They could and probably should reach that goal next season with the right moves. It’s hardly the end of the world if they don’t. They’re still in the early stages of building the team around rookie Celebrini and Smith. You have an issue with people not pushing hard enough for such a marginal improvement that doesn’t really mean much at the end of the day.

What good??

I dunno, maybe you forgot what it was like to enjoy wins, but I still like ‘em. As I’ve said here, it appears so many are so accustomed to losing that it’s almost a comfort zone.

 

[Grinner]

What good??

I dunno, maybe you forgot what it was like to enjoy wins, but I still like ‘em. As I’ve said here, it appears so many are so accustomed to losing that it’s almost a comfort zone.

Actively pulling to lose

 

[SoCalSharkzFan]

What good??

I dunno, maybe you forgot what it was like to enjoy wins, but I still like ‘em. As I’ve said here, it appears so many are so accustomed to losing that it’s almost a comfort zone.

Why do you insist on parking yourself in the tanking thread if it makes you so miserable? Honest question.

 

[TheBeard]

Why do you insist on parking yourself in the tanking thread if it makes you so miserable? Honest question.

The problem is you think it’s a tanking thread and not a simple draft thread like the title suggests. Says a lot about the mentality here when the first thing that comes to mind when you see draft is “tanking”.

 

[weastern bias]

. . . maybe we should be tanking next year, lol

 

[Jargon]

Not sure why so many people are arguing with @TheBeard on the semantics of improvement. I think it’s pretty obvious what he’s saying?

As I said previously, Grier himself said it’s time to start building up and winning games. He didn’t say we’d make the playoffs but he expected us to be in the 7th place this year — we weren’t. That’s an internal failure. I’m going to assume he’s going to do everything in his power to make that happen next year — if it doesn’t, then either his team building isn’t working or prospects are faltering. That wouldn’t be a great sign.

So, yeah, like Monsieur Beard I’m cheering for Grier to have a big summer and to see tangible improvements next year.

 

[dmcccdmn]

. . . maybe we should be tanking next year, lol

I wouldn't mind suffering another year if we can get McKenna. But it should be noted that he's a winger and not center. McKenna is oozing with talent and lining him up with Celebrini would be nuts. Let's see how things shape up next year. A year ago we all thought Hagens would be the favorite for 1OA but now he's 3OA not because he's bad but because 2 other players just have more talent.

 

[TheBeard]

Not sure why so many people are arguing with @TheBeard on the semantics of improvement. I think it’s pretty obvious what he’s saying?

As I said previously, Grier himself said it’s time to start building up and winning games. He didn’t say we’d make the playoffs but he expected us to be in the 7th place this year — we weren’t. That’s an internal failure. I’m going to assume he’s going to do everything in his power to make that happen next year — if it doesn’t, then either his team building isn’t working or prospects are faltering. That wouldn’t be a great sign.

So, yeah, like Monsieur Beard I’m cheering for Grier to have a big summer and to see tangible improvements next year.

Because this is all of them: