2025 NHL Draft: Lose a ton for Porter Martone

If we pick at #2 and Schaefer is off the board, what do you do…

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    Votes: 5 3.9%
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  • Try to trade down to select a D in the 7-10 range

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Ok, even if its not much improvement in the standings, surely its reasonable to expect more wins and points at least right? 19 wins and 47 points in 23-24 to maybe 21 wins and 53-54 points this year?

What's a fair expectation for next season? If we cannot get 25-27 wins and 60-65 points at least, I'll start to question if the pieces we have really are such foundation pieces. Heck, I probably would want to see a jump to 70 points next year. It would still satisfy everyone desperately hoping to be one of the worst teams in the league again, but would also show some real progress.
 

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I want some salt from you when we make our first round pick this year. I want you to take all those negative feelings about Georgiev and how he led us to the "promised land" and have a real Missouri "Show Me" attitude towards our eventual pick. Otherwise, I won't feel like you really meant it when you grumbled the whole way towards getting another high-end player on this bad squad.
Literally none of it means anything until they’re hoisting the cup.
 
I, for one, will not be questioning if a 19 year old and a 20/21 year old along with their 23 year old goaltender are foundational pieces if they don't turn a 20 win team into a 30+ win team in one offseason, but that's just me

Its not just those 3 though. You expect Eklund to take another step up. You expect people like Graf, Mukh, Kovalenko to contribute more. You expect another couple of prospects to make the jump and make a little bit more of an impact than people like Dellandrea, Thrun and Grundstrom have. You expect our esteemed GM to add a couple more pieces that are more than just castaways.

Agree to disagree, but yeah, if we are going to go into next season again going Yeah a 20 win 50-55 point team is all you can expect, then I will certainly be concerned. I don't think expecting close to 30 wins is unreasonable. Bedard is taking a lot of criticism this year for his stagnation and as a result, the team's stagnation. If we stagnate next year, its a major concern, imo.
 
I, for one, will not be questioning if a 19 year old and a 20/21 year old along with their 23 year old goaltender are foundational pieces if they don't turn a 20 win team into a 30+ win team in one offseason, but that's just me
You mock but the 9 game losing streak to start the year, the loss of Celebrini for over a month, the horrendous first half for Will Smith and the fact goaltending alone from Georgie probably cost us 7-9 wins is more than enough to make up the difference. The team was on pace for I believe 33 or 34 wins when they traded Blackwood.

So yeah, if there aren’t decent-enough improvements with a highly touted goaltender we essentially traded two firsts for and has already shown he’s NHL ready, a major influx of defensive talent with Schafer and/or Dickinson and Mukh and even a half-hearted effort from Grier to start building a better team, and full seasons from two supremely talents top 4 picks who showed significant improvement as the year went on (not to mention guys like Musty and Graf et al playing full time while we see less or none of the Kostins and Kunins of the roster) then there should be reason to be concerned.

Really the option to hit 30 wins without it meaning we sacrificed long term success with short term gains isn’t really all that much of a stretch. The question is whether or not Grier wants it yet.
 
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If these guys we’ve tanked for are so highly touted and you can’t get, like 6 of them to improve the team to 30 wins then perhaps they’re not the guys. Coming in at 18-19 isn’t the drawback it used to be and from what we saw from Mack and smith and Mukh and Graf, I expect they’ll all have a much greater impact on the bottom line. For chrissake, we got 31 wins in 21-22 with a team consisting of a basically three forwards and an aging burns (and half a season of Karlsson) and with James Reimer leading the charge.
Player progress isn’t linear. They have terms like sophomore slump for a reason. Staying effective in the NHL is very difficult especially when teams start targeting you defensively. We also shouldn’t be terribly concerned about getting any specific number of wins. They may not all be the effective players we want them to be out of the gate. Goalies and defensemen often don’t have the career arcs that forwards do. A lot of things have to come together for even a 10 win improvement next season and we should be happy to get it and a top five draft pick for next year.
 
Player progress isn’t linear. They have terms like sophomore slump for a reason. Staying effective in the NHL is very difficult especially when teams start targeting you defensively. We also shouldn’t be terribly concerned about getting any specific number of wins. They may not all be the effective players we want them to be out of the gate. Goalies and defensemen often don’t have the career arcs that forwards do. A lot of things have to come together for even a 10 win improvement next season and we should be happy to get it and a top five draft pick for next year.
This team was pacing out for that when they traded Blackwood and literally everything that could have gone wrong in terms of player development happened. Celebrini missed a month, Smith was atrocious, no other prospect stepped up in any way. In order for us to not pace out as we were when things were going poorly would be to get similar goaltending as we got from Georgiev from Askarov and whomever else we bring in and if Grier decides he likes what he saw from having geriatrics like Ruuta playing nightly.
 
Schaefer only turning into Rielly or Morrissey would be a huge problem. You can't build a Cup winning defense around that.
Rielly and Morrissey are not the same caliber of player. Morrissey is a top-10 defenseman in the league who is excellent defensively. Rielly is a top pairing defenseman who is not consistent year to year and isn't good defensively.

Schaefer being a 6'2" Josh Morrissey is realistic outcome and puts him at "Cup-caliber #1D".
 
Rielly and Morrissey are not the same caliber of player. Morrissey is a top-10 defenseman in the league who is excellent defensively. Rielly is a top pairing defenseman who is not consistent year to year and isn't good defensively.

Schaefer being a 6'2" Josh Morrissey is realistic outcome and puts him at "Cup-caliber #1D".
Morrissey wasn't good defensively until like last year. If it takes Schaefer over a decade to become a fringe #1 that probably means we still need to draft a true #1. The Rielly outcome would be a disaster.
 
Rielly and Morrissey are not the same caliber of player. Morrissey is a top-10 defenseman in the league who is excellent defensively. Rielly is a top pairing defenseman who is not consistent year to year and isn't good defensively.

Schaefer being a 6'2" Josh Morrissey is realistic outcome and puts him at "Cup-caliber #1D".
It's impossible to project out a 17 year old who missed half a season with a broker collarbone and say whether he is or is not a player to build around to win a cup. All draftees work that way. With all due respect to heischer, nolan patrick, or even Hieskanen, makar didnt project to be the best defenseman by a mile in his generation. Quinn hughes picked one after filip zadina. Drafting is always a bit of a crap shoot, especially for guys as young as schaefer and with an injury that stopped us from seeing how he would have done.

He's a no brainer pick for the sharks given org need and #1 ranking, but it's hard to project what he will become specifically.

If they get schaefer, then its pretty likely that schaefer, Dick, and Mukh will hold 3 of the 6/7 D slots long term. Possibly one of the kids too (LSW, Pohlkamp, Cagnoni, etc). That leaves 2-3 slots on the D acquisition D via trade or UFA. If they win the lottery and if they can get those two D this summer, the D will be all set forever, leaving only the wings to fill out long term.
 
Morrissey wasn't good defensively until like last year. If it takes Schaefer over a decade to become a fringe #1 that probably means we still need to draft a true #1. The Rielly outcome would be a disaster.
Putting aside the fact that I don't agree Morrissey wasn't good defensively until last year, do you really need me to clarify that i mean "the last two years' version specifically Josh Morrissey"? Morrissey was a 14th overall pick, not a 1st overall pick. Obviously I'm not suggesting Schaefer will have Morrissey's exact year to year projection.
 
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This team was pacing out for that when they traded Blackwood and literally everything that could have gone wrong in terms of player development happened. Celebrini missed a month, Smith was atrocious, no other prospect stepped up in any way. In order for us to not pace out as we were when things were going poorly would be to get similar goaltending as we got from Georgiev from Askarov and whomever else we bring in and if Grier decides he likes what he saw from having geriatrics like Ruuta playing nightly.
And we may not get a Blackwood level performance out of Askarov in his rookie season or whoever we get to platoon with him. Injuries are still going to happen to our best players. There will be dips in developing players. We accomplished getting better this season from last and still have the best odds of the top pick. We’re set up to improve next season but it could be a huge leap and it could be only slight like it was this year. The players have to make the most of it either way. Grier should as well.
 
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Putting aside the fact that I don't agree Morrissey wasn't good defensively until last year, do you really need me to clarify that i mean "the last two years' version specifically Josh Morrissey"? Morrissey was a 14th overall pick, not a 1st overall pick. Obviously I'm not suggesting Schaefer will have Morrissey's exact year to year projection.
Yes because we're ultimately drafting the rights to the first 7 years of a player's career so It's relevant that Morrissey didn't start performing like a top pair defenseman until season 8 at the earliest. Even Schaefer reaching the current version of Morrissey on a shorter trajectory would be pretty disappointing IMO, he needs to be in the annual Norris conversation to feel confident our rebuild will work.
 
Having only a slight increase next season despite having our goalie of the future, full seasons from Celebrini, smith and whomever we draft, additional prospects jumping to the show, Grier adding pieces in the offseason and then NOT trading them off for lotto picks and worse players throughout (not just at the deadline) would be an absolute failure for Grier unless that’s his intention.

Its as simple as that.

I swear I truly believe we’ve been beaten down so bad as a fanbase that for many it’s just easier to expect the worst than hope for the best. Expecting 30 wins isn’t wining the cup or even playing meaningful games in April. It’s doing something 30 of the 32 teams in the league will have done this season.
 
Literally none of it means anything until they’re hoisting the cup.
I don't necessarily disagree, but Rome wasn't built in a day.

Fastest any team of mine ever went from crap to championship was three years and I expect it's gonna be a lot longer journey than that for this team if they get there. But the ride is pretty fun too.
 
I don't necessarily disagree, but Rome wasn't built in a day.

Fastest any team of mine ever went from crap to championship was three years and I expect it's gonna be a lot longer journey than that for this team if they get there. But the ride is pretty fun too.
I’m not expecting miracles. That wasn’t my point. My point is congratulating ourselves for wasting another year sucking ass is tragic.
 
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Ok, even if its not much improvement in the standings, surely its reasonable to expect more wins and points at least right? 19 wins and 47 points in 23-24 to maybe 21 wins and 53-54 points this year?

What's a fair expectation for next season? If we cannot get 25-27 wins and 60-65 points at least, I'll start to question if the pieces we have really are such foundation pieces. Heck, I probably would want to see a jump to 70 points next year. It would still satisfy everyone desperately hoping to be one of the worst teams in the league again, but would also show some real progress.
If we don't finish significantly higher next year, I'll blame it on the supporting players much more than I'll be blaming our foundation pieces
 

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