2025 NHL Draft: Lose a ton for Porter Martone

If we pick at #2 and Schaefer is off the board, what do you do…

  • Misa

    Votes: 121 86.4%
  • Hagens

    Votes: 4 2.9%
  • Martone

    Votes: 6 4.3%
  • Frondell

    Votes: 3 2.1%
  • Desnoyer

    Votes: 1 0.7%
  • Try to trade down to select a D in the 7-10 range

    Votes: 3 2.1%
  • Other

    Votes: 2 1.4%

  • Total voters
    140
Ideally, we are hitting 70+ points next season. That’s a huge jump but should be our goal. Likely bottom 5-6 but closer to a WC than to a low 50’s point tankanthon with the Hawks. Roster is going to need some major improvement to hit that though.
I'd agree bottom 6 is likely. A lot is gonna have to go right for us to make a 20 point jump, though.

The bulk of our improvement will most likely come from Mack and Smith taking another step. Throughout both of their careers they've shown nothing but improvement which is why I'm confident they'll avoid the dreaded sophomore slump. If Mukh comes back from his injury and plays like he has the previous ~10 games that will go a long way, too.

Hopefully we get a surprise from another of our prospects like Dickinson or Cherny, but they're probably both a year off from making a noticeable impact. Same goes for whoever we draft this summer.

Goaltending has the biggest potential for improvement but playing behind our dumpster fire of a D would sap even the most confident tender.

The biggest wildcard improvement to this team would be a trade for a solid RHD like Hamilton.

Can't see us signing a huge UFA like Marner. Think we're a year out from our big UFA signing.

So yeah, breaching the 70 point mark next season will most likely require Mack and Smith to take the next step, better goaltending, trading for a solid RHD like Hamilton, and signing another decent D like Ekblad. Another prospect or two stepping up would be a huge help, too.

Needless to say, GMMG has his work cut out for him this summer.
 
I'd agree bottom 6 is likely. A lot is gonna have to go right for us to make a 20 point jump, though.

The bulk of our improvement will most likely come from Mack and Smith taking another step. Throughout both of their careers they've shown nothing but improvement which is why I'm confident they'll avoid the dreaded sophomore slump. If Mukh comes back from his injury and plays like he has the previous ~10 games that will go a long way, too.

Hopefully we get a surprise from another of our prospects like Dickinson or Cherny, but they're probably both a year off from making a noticeable impact. Same goes for whoever we draft this summer.

Goaltending has the biggest potential for improvement but playing behind our dumpster fire of a D would sap even the most confident tender.

The biggest wildcard improvement to this team would be a trade for a solid RHD like Hamilton.

Can't see us signing a huge UFA like Marner. Think we're a year out from our big UFA signing.

So yeah, breaching the 70 point mark next season will most likely require Mack and Smith to take the next step, better goaltending, trading for a solid RHD like Hamilton, and signing another decent D like Ekblad. Another prospect or two stepping up would be a huge help, too.

Needless to say, GMMG has his work cut out for him this summer.
The biggest hope is that we were like 10-15-5 when we traded Blackwood, and 10-32-5 since (might be off a few). Even if Asky is below Blackwood, we aren't super far off a better pace. Granted we need to replace Granlund, Ceci, Walman just to get back to baseline, and as you said, the kids need to take another step, but 70-80 points is possible, just a big stretch goal.

Probably more likely we're at like 65-70 and still in the bottom 3, I'm just hoping we have a chance at bottom 5 and above 70. That's entirely on Grier's shoulders at the moment.
 
I'd agree bottom 6 is likely. A lot is gonna have to go right for us to make a 20 point jump, though.

The bulk of our improvement will most likely come from Mack and Smith taking another step. Throughout both of their careers they've shown nothing but improvement which is why I'm confident they'll avoid the dreaded sophomore slump. If Mukh comes back from his injury and plays like he has the previous ~10 games that will go a long way, too.

Hopefully we get a surprise from another of our prospects like Dickinson or Cherny, but they're probably both a year off from making a noticeable impact. Same goes for whoever we draft this summer.

Goaltending has the biggest potential for improvement but playing behind our dumpster fire of a D would sap even the most confident tender.

The biggest wildcard improvement to this team would be a trade for a solid RHD like Hamilton.

Can't see us signing a huge UFA like Marner. Think we're a year out from our big UFA signing.

So yeah, breaching the 70 point mark next season will most likely require Mack and Smith to take the next step, better goaltending, trading for a solid RHD like Hamilton, and signing another decent D like Ekblad. Another prospect or two stepping up would be a huge help, too.

Needless to say, GMMG has his work cut out for him this summer.
You had me until you said “solid RHD like Hamilton.” His contract sucks, his defense sucks, his durability sucks, and he is old and clearly showing signs of decline. Rest I agree with.
 
If this team is still fighting for last place next year I’m gonna be real disappointed

I think with retaining Walman, Granny, and Zetts, and having a productive offseason, this may have been viable. Having to replace those three (and expect Asky to be league average) and add talent seems unlikely.

I think Buff and Pittsburgh are more talented than the Sharks, but I could see them being worse. Could definitely see Chicago and Philly being worse. Maybe Seattle decides to sell off some pieces, but I think they’re more likely to be in no man’s lands of bottom 7-12. Boston sucks right now, but health, lots of cap space and being a desirable FA location probably means they just up a bit. Their centers suck though.

In order to be outside the top 5, I think we’d need no sophomore slumps (realistically we’ll need growth from all four), two top 4 dmen, two top 6 forwards, and solid goaltending (healthy Asky and a solid backup). If he does this, but by adding old declining vets on long contracts, we’re going to regret that more than sucking another year.

I’ve been impressed by Grier, but I think that’s asking an awful lot. Still wonder if we should have retained Walman. Above average PMDs are so hard to find.

Also wonder if we’ll be selling off Wenny, Liljigren, and Ferraro next year. My guess is yes, but that’ll be the final sell off.
 
Ideally, we are hitting 70+ points next season. That’s a huge jump but should be our goal. Likely bottom 5-6 but closer to a WC than to a low 50’s point tankathon with the Hawks. Roster is going to need some major improvement to hit that though.
That’s fine. That’s more in line with what I expect. The only reason the team can hit that is because Mike breaks his promise and chooses not to improve the team.
 
So far Mike Grier has been our GM for two full seasons and the Sharks have now placed last in both of those. If there's gonna be a 3rd, then he won't make it to a 4th.
His job the first couple seasons was to rebuild a foundation. And he overwhelmingly succeeded at that. But, his job now moving forward is improving the team. If he chooses to spend another year avoiding having to do that then let someone else with balls come in to do it. As of this point we still have no clue what kind of a talent evaluator he is.
 
I suspect that Grier's plan hinges on the outcome of the draft lottery. If the Sharks are able to select Schaefer there is no reason not to improve the roster by adding to any and all areas as long as you are careful with any long term deals.

If they don't end up with Schaefer, Grier needs to be focused on adding a core D via FA or trade. If he isn't able to do this, I can see him adding similar to how he did last season with an eye on one more year with a top 3-4 pick and the chance at McKenna.

The wild card that has been thinking about is what happens if Chicago wins the lottery and moves up to 1OA? This would be their second win inside 5 years and would remove them from the McKenna draft. I am not sure how that would impact the lottery odds.
 
I suspect that Grier's plan hinges on the outcome of the draft lottery. If the Sharks are able to select Schaefer there is no reason not to improve the roster by adding to any and all areas as long as you are careful with any long term deals.

If they don't end up with Schaefer, Grier needs to be focused on adding a core D via FA or trade. If he isn't able to do this, I can see him adding similar to how he did last season with an eye on one more year with a top 3-4 pick and the chance at McKenna.

The wild card that has been thinking about is what happens if Chicago wins the lottery and moves up to 1OA? This would be their second win inside 5 years and would remove them from the McKenna draft. I am not sure how that would impact the lottery odds.
I don't see the lottery changing that dynamic any. Grier will have to spend money to reach the floor regardless. Best way to do that is to see what veterans are out there willing to take a 2-4 year deal at a relatively high cap hit to fill needs and get to the floor. We probably won't have good odds at McKenna because this team as it is trending is probably in that 5-7 OA range just based on likely improvements from guys like Celebrini, Eklund, Graf, Mukhamadullin, and Smith. We also have no idea what kind of rookie season Askarov will give. If any of the veteran reinforcements end up like Toffoli then we're looking at a reasonably solid team that may not be playoff competitive but getting closer.
 
I don't see the lottery changing that dynamic any. Grier will have to spend money to reach the floor regardless. Best way to do that is to see what veterans are out there willing to take a 2-4 year deal at a relatively high cap hit to fill needs and get to the floor. We probably won't have good odds at McKenna because this team as it is trending is probably in that 5-7 OA range just based on likely improvements from guys like Celebrini, Eklund, Graf, Mukhamadullin, and Smith. We also have no idea what kind of rookie season Askarov will give. If any of the veteran reinforcements end up like Toffoli then we're looking at a reasonably solid team that may not be playoff competitive but getting closer.
I agree, I think hell try to get as many 1-2 year overpaid vets as possible. He might sign truly ridiculous contracts, like Roslovic for 1 year 7m. Burns 1 yr, 8m for good ol' times sake. Dumoulin 1 year 7m.

But, by paying two years worth of salary in one year, everyone wins. Sharks hit the cap floor. They stay fully flex going forward. They still stink and get a top pick in '26. They have easy to move TDL pieces (including one retention slot), to add more '26 draft capital... The player gets double the market value (2 yrs worth of slary in 1 yr), a top role with lots of minutes to increase their market value even more, and a near guarantee that they will play for the cup when they are dealt to a contender.

Obviously, this kind of stinks for us fans as we have to wait another year before getting talent in the building, but seeing as how the army of prospects (Dickinson, musty, cherny, haltunnen, Pohlcamp, etc) will all be first year pros (and even the other army: smith, celly, cagnoni, graf, Mukh, bystedt, ostapchuk, etc) will be just second year pros, it's very likely that next year is for development anyways.

Then summer of '26 is go time to lock in term term high cost vets in their late 20s as well as deal some '26 draft capital for other key pieces. So, while I'd love grier to start adding long term players with all that cap space next year and the crazy amount beyond that (nearly 80M and then oer 100m), I just don't expect he's ready to reduce his flexibility going forward just yet.
 
Obviously, this kind of stinks for us fans as we have to wait another year before getting talent in the building, but seeing as how the army of prospects (Dickinson, musty, cherny, haltunnen, Pohlcamp, etc) will all be first year pros (and even the other army: smith, celly, cagnoni, graf, Mukh, bystedt, ostapchuk, etc) will be just second year pros, it's very likely that next year is for development anyways.
It would stink for the players. Two years in a row Grier brings in a bunch of guys to improve the product only to then completely decimate it again.

Eventually Grier has to sell a vision to both the fans but the players as well.
 
Just for Fun: here is my "realistic?" hopes for signings:
1. Boeser: 5 years, 40M... 8M AAV).
2. Bennett: 5 yrs, 35M 7M AAV
3. Ekblad, 6 yrs 54M...9m AAV
4. Pionk: 6 yrs 54M... 9mAAV
5. Jake Allen 2 yrs 8m... 4M AAV (to platoon with Askarov)

(opening roster next year:

1. Celebrini-Toffoli-Boeser (Boeser gets 5 years, 40M... 8M AAV).
2. Bennett-Smith-Eklund (bennet gets 5years, 35M... 7m AAV)
3. Wennberg-Graf-Musty/Cherny/haltunnen/Bystedt (whoever wins the job out of camp)
4. Ostapchuk-Cardwell-Grundstrom/Dyll/Goodrow/Rookie?

D: Eklbad- Dickinson
Pionk- Ferraro
Mukh-Liljgren
Thrun

Cagnoni and Thompson. starts in the AHL one more year, but either gets called up if he solidifies the defensive side of his game. Pohlcamp is the dark horse.

I dont think that roster makes the POs next year, but I also dont think it's dead last either. Then, in summer '26, the top '25 pick goes pro and they will still have 40-50M more in cap space to add more quality vets.
 
It would stink for the players. Two years in a row Grier brings in a bunch of guys to improve the product only to then completely decimate it again.

Eventually Grier has to sell a vision to both the fans but the players as well.
Agreed.... Eventually he does, but so far the biggest commitment he's made to adding anyone in his entire tenure is toffoli, and that was unique because toffoli wanted to come for family reasons. he has shown no inclination in my view to add real talent and term, and most of the short talent he added (dyll, good, grund...) has not worked well at all.
 
The wild card that has been thinking about is what happens if Chicago wins the lottery and moves up to 1OA? This would be their second win inside 5 years and would remove them from the McKenna draft. I am not sure how that would impact the lottery odds.
In this scenario with the Blackhawks picking Miss or Hagens and the Sharks getting Schaefer is the preferred outcome. Now it still won’t prevent Chicago from being able to pick first. If they strikeout in FA maybe they just go full tank for a year since if they finish last they can still pick #1. I don’t know if the fans or players (Bedard) could take it but maybe McKenna being Bedard’s cousin that would be worth the chance of drafting #1.
 
Agreed.... Eventually he does, but so far the biggest commitment he's made to adding anyone in his entire tenure is toffoli, and that was unique because toffoli wanted to come for family reasons. he has shown no inclination in my view to add real talent and term, and most of the short talent he added (dyll, good, grund...) has not worked well at all.
Well, it seems most of the guys he added were just guys meant to do the dirty work on the lower lines so the kids could concentrate on getting their feet wet, learning how to be offensively efficient without having to overthink the rest of their game.
 
It would stink for the players. Two years in a row Grier brings in a bunch of guys to improve the product only to then completely decimate it again.

Eventually Grier has to sell a vision to both the fans but the players as well.

I think the vision is pretty clear even if not stated outright - we are going to suck and pick up premium talent from the draft until the majority of those prospects, who were picked in year 2 and 3 (since the year 1 draft was overall really weak and GMMG had to go off DWJ's draft list as he just got hired) can move up to the Sharks and contribute to actual winning. Trading off players who aren't going to be here long term is needed to rebuild what really was a totally barren prospect pool (like, when GMMG got here, the only prospect worth anything was Eklund, Sharks had basically traded away their picks or struck out in the draft when they had one e.g. Ozzy, Merkley).

Yah it's gonna suck for the Ek, Celebrini, and Smith, but that's on the coaching staff to keep them engaged and focused on their development. I think fans (not all ofc) generally understand this and personally I'm more excited about the future stars we will have, like getting Celebrini, or hopefully the Scaef this year. When Musty, Cherny, Dickinson, Graf, LSW, Kasper the friendly Halttunen, Muk, Bystetd, etc all are on the team full time is when the Sharks should think about loading up to win.
 
I think the vision is pretty clear even if not stated outright - we are going to suck and pick up premium talent from the draft until the majority of those prospects, who were picked in year 2 and 3 (since the year 1 draft was overall really weak and GMMG had to go off DWJ's draft list as he just got hired) can move up to the Sharks and contribute to actual winning. Trading off players who aren't going to be here long term is needed to rebuild what really was a totally barren prospect pool (like, when GMMG got here, the only prospect worth anything was Eklund, Sharks had basically traded away their picks or struck out in the draft when they had one e.g. Ozzy, Merkley).

Yah it's gonna suck for the Ek, Celebrini, and Smith, but that's on the coaching staff to keep them engaged and focused on their development. I think fans (not all ofc) generally understand this and personally I'm more excited about the future stars we will have, like getting Celebrini, or hopefully the Scaef this year. When Musty, Cherny, Dickinson, Graf, LSW, Kasper the friendly Halttunen, Muk, Bystetd, etc all are on the team full time is when the Sharks should think about loading up to win.
That's not really a timeline though. That's just a guesstimate. I think (or hope) Grier would have a more speciffic timeline than this. There's always gonna be one more prospect down the road you could sell Grier on to get him to prolong taking the next step.

Also, waiting around for 8-10 prospects to all be viable pieces on the club before thinking about loading up is how you end up getting into cap trouble. It's also foolish to think more than 3-4 of those guys will hit. If anything, half of those guys should be used as trade pieces for more established talent.
 
It would stink for the players. Two years in a row Grier brings in a bunch of guys to improve the product only to then completely decimate it again.

Eventually Grier has to sell a vision to both the fans but the players as well.
The vision is "a bunch of good players we could afford to acquire." We cannot as yet afford that, but the upcoming draft will give us some more picks to spend on those future good players (who themselves need time to cook).

You've gotta have patience.
 
That's not really a timeline though. That's just a guesstimate. I think (or hope) Grier would have a more speciffic timeline than this. There's always gonna be one more prospect down the road you could sell Grier on to get him to prolong taking the next step.

Also, waiting around for 8-10 prospects to all be viable pieces on the club before thinking about loading up is how you end up getting into cap trouble. It's also foolish to think more than 3-4 of those guys will hit. If anything, half of those guys should be used as trade pieces for more established talent.

I'd imagine GMMG told Plattner what his timeline was, but obviously this wouldn't be released to the fans since they still have to sell tickets. If I were to guess though he probably stated realistically (when he was being hired) that this was a 5 year rebuild, given that the Sharks had no prospects and a bunch of bad contracts and only a handful of assets (all of which were traded off). We are currently on year 3 so I would expect two more years of suck.

Yeah a lot of prospects won't hit, but if they mostly don't, then guess what? We will continue to suck and there's no way around that. We need them to hit. There isn't another path back to contention. If they are used as trade bait then they need to at least look like they are hitting otherwise no one will give anything useful for them (like how much trade value does a Bordeleau have, or Ozzy who we gave away for nothing). FAs generally won't sign here unless it's some sort of 1-2 year reclamation project where we promise to trade them back to a contender while rebuilding their value (or their wife happens to be a local).

As for when the Sharks can take the next step, I think it will come when the prospects (who need to hit) are on the team full time and are playing to potential. At which point GMMG has no choice but to start the contention window.
 
Ekblad and Allen is probably the ideal UFA signings for this off-season, IMO. It wouldn't hurt to get another middle-six center but personally I think it's time to let Smith take 3C and just shelter the hell out of him.

He's grown so much over the year. When I think about how awful he was in October, all the attributes that made him a poor center, I think a lot of it has gotten to a level where I'm okay with him at C again:

-Drastically improved skating and stamina; I feel like I don't see him huffing and puffing at the end of shifts like he used to and the top speed/acceleration has made him an actual threat on the backcheck
-Positioning and willingness to play low in the zone in the center of the ice is there, even if he's not great at it yet
-Willingness to battle physically has drastically improved, even if he isn't good at it yet
-Doesn't blow the zone constantly looking for home run passes

He won't be a perfect C and he's still pretty bad defensively, but if we want him to be a center long-term I think you need to let him go through the growing pains at center a la 2014-2015 Hertl. You can shelter the hell out of him with Celebrini, Wennberg, and Ostapchuk all plus defensive players down the middle. Here's my roster skeleton after UFA/the draft.

Eklund-Celebrini-Toffoli
Graf-Wennberg-XXX
XXX-Smith-XXX
XXX-Ostapchuk-XXX
Dellandrea, Grundstrom

XXX-Ekblad
Ferraro-Mukhamadullin
XXX-Liljegren
Thrun, Desharnais

Askarov
Allen

To fill out the rest of the roster will need a combo of trades and prospects stepping up. I think Mukh is the only RFA really worth re-signing, especially given how Kovalenko has played out, unfortunately.

I know we've tossed around Mason Marchment to help Dallas out of their cap crunch next season. So I'll toss the Colorado 2026 2nd and a B- prospect (let's say Havelid) at them for Marchment at full cap. Obviously this would count on Marchment waiving to come here, hopefully he has some fond memories of the org.

I keep coming back to the idea of offersheeting Will Cuylle from NYR at the max 2nd round pick compensation. Doing the math (scaling up this season's offer sheet comp chart to next season's cap), that'll be about $4.97M. The Rangers have $10.5M to re-sign K'Andre Miller (which they basically have to do otherwise their best LHD is Carson Soucey), Zac Jones, Matt Rempe (lol), and Cuylle. I think there's a decent chance we could pluck Cuylle via offersheet without giving up a 1st round pick, sell him on an increased role with an up-and-coming team that has two elite young centermen. $4.97M x five years, easy. If the Rangers are more proactive about re-signing Cuylle before July 1st, then they're in a bind and we could pivot to seeing what they'd give us to take on Kreider or even see if Lafreniere is available--he's a disappointment as a 1st overall pick but he's still a quality second liner that doesn't need the PP to be useful and has some size.

Lastly, I would hope someone from the Chernyshov/Musty/Lund/Halttunen cohort is ready to sieze a top-9 spot. Lund looks pretty decent right now, hopefully he does a Graf over the summer and gets faster and stronger and takes that spot.

So tentatively:

Eklund-Celebrini-Toffoli
Graf-Wennberg-Marchment
Cuylle/Kreider/Lafreniere-Smith-Lund/Musty/Chernyshov
Cardwell-Ostapchuk-Grundstrom
Dellandrea

Schaefer-Ekblad
Ferraro-Mukhamadullin
Dickinson-Liljegren
Thrun

Askarov
Allen


Obviously this is an ideal outcome. Obviously it counts on a lot of things that may not be likely to happen (Ekblad wanting to come here, winning the lottery + Schaefer showing out in camp, Dickinson being ready, Marchment waiving his NTC, Drury mismanaging his cap situation), but it's not like, totally wackadoodle unhinged craziness... right? That team looks half-way decent.

(The least realistic thing about it is waiving Goodrow and launching Vlasic into the sun, I know.)
 
The vision is "a bunch of good players we could afford to acquire." We cannot as yet afford that, but the upcoming draft will give us some more picks to spend on those future good players (who themselves need time to cook).

You've gotta have patience.
If you're a passenger in a car going on a road trip, you'd like to have a ballpark as to when you'll get to your destination. You don't just want to hear "we'll get there when we get there".

Having a timeline isn't just Grier randomly guessing at a date. It's him knowing what he wants to do and what steps to take year in and year out to get there. Don't think it's asking for a lot, is it?
 
As for when the Sharks can take the next step, I think it will come when the prospects (who need to hit) are on the team full time and are playing to potential. At which point GMMG has no choice but to start the contention window.
The only ones that need to hit are Macklin, Smith, Dickinson and whomever we get in this upcoming draft. Essentially all four could very well be full-timers next year, but even that's too early to make a massive leap into building a contender.

Everyone else, like the Mustys and Chernyshovs, they may have more value as prospects sold high on. Frankly, the allure of what the 2026 first round could bring (McKenna) holds more value than the realistic possibility of drafting him. That first and a Musty (for example) could bring in a top tier player like a Dahlin.
 
The only ones that need to hit are Macklin, Smith, Dickinson and whomever we get in this upcoming draft. Essentially all four could very well be full-timers next year, but even that's too early to make a massive leap into building a contender.

Everyone else, like the Mustys and Chernyshovs, they may have more value as prospects sold high on. Frankly, the allure of what the 2026 first round could bring (McKenna) holds more value than the realistic possibility of drafting him. That first and a Musty (for example) could bring in a top tier player like a Dahlin.

Yeah that seems reasonable, so basically we need Dickinson and (please please please) Schaefer to come up and play impact minutes - back to the 5 year plan (at which point we can collect more premium prospects, if not McKenna then maybe Vorhoeff, if we get super lucky the following year DuPont or Svensson). By the time the window starts, not only will we have a ton of elite talent on the team, we will also have some elite prospects that will work their way up in the following years for cost controlled impact.

I think we will need some of the other guys to hit too like Musty and Cherny or whoever to get more talent up there but these aren't as necessary. Sure if you can swing a massive trade with a prospect for a younger star like Dahlin that would be great but that is not exactly likely - you have to make sure they will sign an extension otherwise imagine losing a lottery pick AND a top prospect for what will be a rental? Like realistically, we aren't getting Ekblad, we aren't getting Marner, and teams don't like trading their young stars (u25), so counting on that to leapfrog us back to contention is probably not going to pan out.
 
Yeah that seems reasonable, so basically we need Dickinson and (please please please) Schaefer to come up and play impact minutes - back to the 5 year plan (at which point we can collect more premium prospects, if not McKenna then maybe Vorhoeff, if we get super lucky the following year DuPont or Svensson). By the time the window starts, not only will we have a ton of elite talent on the team, we will also have some elite prospects that will work their way up in the following years for cost controlled impact.

I think we will need some of the other guys to hit too like Musty and Cherny or whoever to get more talent up there but these aren't as necessary. Sure if you can swing a massive trade with a prospect for a younger star like Dahlin that would be great but that is not exactly likely - you have to make sure they will sign an extension otherwise imagine losing a lottery pick AND a top prospect for what will be a rental? Like realistically, we aren't getting Ekblad, we aren't getting Marner, and teams don't like trading their young stars (u25), so counting on that to leapfrog us back to contention is probably not going to pan out.
If we're still in the running for Dupont that means something went really wrong. Having a legit opportunity at getting him would ultimately be disastrous for us.
 
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