2025 NHL Draft: Lose a ton for Porter Martone

[Barrie22]

Hot take here, but I kinda want us to either win the lottery and somehow MacGyver a 2025 1st round lottery pick in the next draft. That or lose the lottery and win the next one. Misa and Schaefer are almost interchangeable for me prospect wise and neither have me champing at the bit like McKenna/Dupont. Even missing those big two there are some real eye opening prospects in this draft and one year isn't going to kill Smith and Celebrini's morale.

Or how about win this one, win next one and still get a lottery pick in 2025.

Schaefer, Mckenna, and then a top 10 pick in 2 years would be enough to get us out of the basement for sure. Especially adding those 3 picks to Celebrini, Smith, Dickinson, must, cerny, halts.

 

[OversKy]

Or how about win this one, win next one and still get a lottery pick in 2025.

Schaefer, Mckenna, and then a top 10 pick in 2 years would be enough to get us out of the basement for sure. Especially adding those 3 picks to Celebrini, Smith, Dickinson, must, cerny, halts.

Hey, I'd love that to but we can only wi the lottery twice right. Planning for #1 OA like many people claimed I was doing previously is not what I'm saying. I just haven't fallen in love with this draft the way some have and hope that we can really get the pieces for that final Stanley Cup crown the Sharks are missing. Keeping a Dupont option open is pretty tempting.

 

[matt trick]

Sure, but that seems like a basic fact to get wrong. The whole basis of the article is "should the Sharks take the BPA or draft for need", which is a completely false premise, since the BPA and positional need are the same player. He could still write the same article except use the "drafting D high has been historically iffy and we don't know Smith is a center for sure and the Misa/Chernyshov connection is cool" angle to make the debate.

Provided health checks out, which I imagine it certainly will, ‘the surefire D don’t always work out’ is the most legitimate reason to opt for Misa. I’d still go Schaefer (health permitting), but it does scare me of which elite d prospect is he?

Ekblad and Bouwmeester were considered historically good D prospects. Was Larsson as well? Don’t think Gundbrandson, Bogosian, Murray, Jones (at least by the draft), or Byram were (regardless of draft position). Dahlin, Hedman, Makar, Heiskanen, and Doughty were extremely well thought of but I Makar/Heiskanen were talked about like Ekblad, Bouw, Doughty, and Hedman.

Ultimately if the downside is smooth-skating 25 minute a night all situation #2 dman we stil need that baaaaad. And it’s not like Misa doesn’t have 2C ‘downside’.

 

[matt trick]

Hey, I'd love that to but we can only wi the lottery twice right. Planning for #1 OA like many people claimed I was doing previously is not what I'm saying. I just haven't fallen in love with this draft the way some have and hope that we can really get the pieces for that final Stanley Cup crown the Sharks are missing. Keeping a Dupont option open is pretty tempting.

We can move up twice. We haven’t used either. Chicago can move up one more time until the 27 draft. If we were to stay last, we could in theory move up in 26 and 27. One win, or non-move down, in one of the next three years would be huge.

Schaefer/Misa, McKenna/Roobrook/Verhoeff, Dupont all look damn special. I expect us to be bottom 5 next year- Blackwood, Walman, Granlund, Zetts, and Ceci is a lot to replace. Kid growth and Askarov will help a good bit, but not out of the top 5. And I’m totally good with that. Two seasons of adding, Dickinson, Cherny, this years first, and maybe next years is a good third tranche of talent (with Ek as tranche 1)

 

[OversKy]

We can move up twice. We haven’t used either. Chicago can move up one more time until the 27 draft. If we were to stay last, we could in theory move up in 26 and 27. One win, or non-move down, in one of the next three years would be huge.

Schaefer/Misa, McKenna/Roobrook/Verhoeff, Dupont all look damn special. I expect us to be bottom 5 next year- Blackwood, Walman, Granlund, Zetts, and Ceci is a lot to replace. Kid growth and Askarov will help a good bit, but not out of the top 5. And I’m totally good with that. Two seasons of adding, Dickinson, Cherny, this years first, and maybe next years is a good third tranche of talent (with Ek as tranche 1)

Holy smokes i didn't know that's how the lottery rules worked! Thanks!

 

[matt trick]

Holy smokes i didn't know that's how the lottery rules worked! Thanks!

I’d guess more people think the way you did, than the opposite. You’ll see it reported consistently that the sharks can only draft top two one more time lol. Occasionally you’ll see the hawks can’t pick top 2 this year because they did two years in a row.

 

[weastern bias]

Best case scenario:

We finish dead last

Chicago wins the lotto for #1 which disqualifies them from the McKenna and Dupont lottos, we fall to #2

They pick for need and select Misa #1 and Schaefer falls to us at #2

We make marginal improvements next year and are no longer the single worst team in the league but still have a shot at McKenna with heightened odds due to Chicago being disqualified

 

[gaucholoco3]

Best case scenario:

We finish dead last

Chicago wins the lotto for #1 which disqualifies them from the McKenna and Dupont lottos, we fall to #2

They pick for need and select Misa #1 and Schaefer falls to us at #2

We make marginal improvements next year and are no longer the single worst team in the league but still have a shot at McKenna with heightened odds due to Chicago being disqualified

Maybe Chicago the decides to go full tank to guarantee last place and a chance at McKenna fully wasting all 3 of Bedard’s ELC years.

 

[BobGoblinn]

Woof Hagens into the boards hard

 

[Juxtaposer]

Provided health checks out, which I imagine it certainly will, ‘the surefire D don’t always work out’ is the most legitimate reason to opt for Misa. I’d still go Schaefer (health permitting), but it does scare me of which elite d prospect is he?

Ekblad and Bouwmeester were considered historically good D prospects. Was Larsson as well? Don’t think Gundbrandson, Bogosian, Murray, Jones (at least by the draft), or Byram were (regardless of draft position). Dahlin, Hedman, Makar, Heiskanen, and Doughty were extremely well thought of but I Makar/Heiskanen were talked about like Ekblad, Bouw, Doughty, and Hedman.

Ultimately if the downside is smooth-skating 25 minute a night all situation #2 dman we stil need that baaaaad. And it’s not like Misa doesn’t have 2C ‘downside’.

Yep, I think that's a legitimate argument against Schaefer at #1. The only defenseman I've held in has high esteem as Schaefer in my fifteen years of internet-scouting is Dahlin, and he didn't even end up the best defenseman in his draft class.

I can't really be unbiased when it comes to Schaefer, since he's been my draft favorite long before he was considered a top-5 candidate. But I will acknowledge that the injury/development time/history of #1 overall defensemen are legitimate arguments for Misa at #1.

 

[Cas]

Maybe Chicago the decides to go full tank to guarantee last place and a chance at McKenna fully wasting all 3 of Bedard’s ELC years.

Chicago's going to be at the bottom of the league next year, pretty much no matter what they do.

How many teams actually have their centerpiece on an ELC when they're ready to compete, with their centerpiece is the first real piece of the rebuild they acquire?

 

[Grinner]

One draft at a time people
One draft at a time.

 

[coooldude]

Magic number is 17 with 9 to play.

Pretty simple. We lose out, we secure a top 3 pick.

For every point we get, we need Chicago to get a point.

Even though we play the Oilers 3x, Chicago's schedule is harder.

Down to the wire. But if we keep icing an AHL team, we have a chance.

 

[Barrie22]

Magic number is 17 with 9 to play.

Pretty simple. We lose out, we secure a top 3 pick.

For every point we get, we need Chicago to get a point.

Even though we play the Oilers 3x, Chicago's schedule is harder.

Down to the wire. But if we keep icing an AHL team, we have a chance.

How is Chicago's schedule harder? We have more back to backs, more games vs teams in or fighting for the playoffs.

 

[Hodge]

Magic number is 17 with 9 to play.

Pretty simple. We lose out, we secure a top 3 pick.

For every point we get, we need Chicago to get a point.

Even though we play the Oilers 3x, Chicago's schedule is harder.

Down to the wire. But if we keep icing an AHL team, we have a chance.

Spencer "Blackhawks goalie of the future who they absolutely FLEECED from Florida" Knight has a .887 SV% so we can't count them out.

 

[Gecklund]

How is Chicago's schedule harder? We have more back to backs, more games vs teams in or fighting for the playoffs.

I think it’s mostly due to the top end teams. Chicago still plays Avs, Caps, and Jets who are all guaranteed a playoff spot and then also plays Habs and Sens who are fighting for one. They do play the Pens twice and the Bruins once though. Sharks play the Oilers 3 times and the Wild neither of which are at the level of the teams CHI plays. We also play the flames and Canucks towards the end of the season which I think by then one of them will be out. I also have a feeling that strength of schedule does not take into account back to backs.

 

[Lebanezer]

Spencer "Blackhawks goalie of the future who they absolutely FLEECED from Florida" Knight has a .887 SV% so we can't count them out.

Chicago sucks so, so much, but Spencer Knight isn’t particularly good either. Who said Florida got fleeced?

 

[coooldude]

How is Chicago's schedule harder? We have more back to backs, more games vs teams in or fighting for the playoffs.

Don't take my word for it

More, harder opponents

NHL Remaining Schedule Strength | Tankathon

Shows the remaining strength of schedule for NHL teams based on the points per game of the opponents left on their schedule.

www.tankathon.com

For what it's worth, Moneypuck which takes into account home/away, recent strength, etc into its projections still has us last but only by 0.4pts.

NHL Playoff Odds -MoneyPuck 2025 Playoff & Cup Odds

NHL Playoff Odds updated many times a day. Stanley Cup Odds, Playoff seeding, and Draft Lottery Odds

moneypuck.com

 

[Juxtaposer]

Chicago sucks so, so much, but Spencer Knight isn’t particularly good either. Who said Florida got fleeced?

Chicago fans were crowing about Knight being better than Askarov after his first two games. That talk seems to have totally gone away now.

 

[matt trick]

I’ve seen some say with Knight, the Hawks have closed the gap on the Sharks rebuild with Askarov. Don’t buy that at all.

Honestly the best team will likely be dependent on what we each get out of 25/26 drafts. If one team ends up with a top 2 this year and top 3 next, and the other doesn’t that could very well tip the scales.

Celebrini, Smith, Askarov, Eklund, Dickinson, Cherny, Muk and Bedard, Lev, Vlasic, Korchinski, Nazar, Rinzel, Knight are pretty even.

I hope we can find a Rinzel type with a late 1st/early 2nd. Big top 4 RHD without the teams own 1st would be ideal. Course I’m sure they’d say the same about Cherny and Musty.

SJ vibes aren’t feeling as good after the past two games, but got to think Davidson is even hungrier to improve vibes via UFA/trades. As long as it doesn’t break Bedard, I think a bit more patience in adding along the edges is the right choice for both orgs.

 

[Lebanezer]

Chicago fans were crowing about Knight being better than Askarov after his first two games. That talk seems to have totally gone away now.

That’s ridiculous.

 

[matt trick]

I think Servalli said something similar. Definitely said he prefers the Hawks rebuild recently, not sure if he specifically called the Knight addition as a difference maker, but I believe he did.

 

[Lebanezer]

I think Servalli said something similar. Definitely said he prefers the Hawks rebuild recently, not sure if he specifically called the Knight addition as a difference maker, but I believe he did.

He’s wrong too, but I assume it’s just to get more clicks.

 

[Hodge]

I’ve seen some say with Knight, the Hawks have closed the gap on the Sharks rebuild with Askarov. Don’t buy that at all.

Honestly the best team will likely be dependent on what we each get out of 25/26 drafts. If one team ends up with a top 2 this year and top 3 next, and the other doesn’t that could very well tip the scales.

Celebrini, Smith, Askarov, Eklund, Dickinson, Cherny, Muk and Bedard, Lev, Vlasic, Korchinski, Nazar, Rinzel, Knight are pretty even.

I hope we can find a Rinzel type with a late 1st/early 2nd. Big top 4 RHD without the teams own 1st would be ideal. Course I’m sure they’d say the same about Cherny and Musty.

SJ vibes aren’t feeling as good after the past two games, but got to think Davidson is even hungrier to improve vibes via UFA/trades. As long as it doesn’t break Bedard, I think a bit more patience in adding along the edges is the right choice for both orgs.

If we land Schaefer I'd easily take our young forwards, defensemen and goaltending over Chicago's. Also building a team around a smurf winger masquerading as a center like Bedard just seems doomed to fail. I'm still more worried about Anaheim's rebuild if they ever hire a decent coach.

 

[weastern bias]

Frank Seravalli was never been right about anything he has ever said