2025 NHL Draft: Lose a ton for Porter Martone

[gaucholoco3]

You don't need a top pairing RHD to win a Cup. You do need a high-end #1C to win a Cup.

Yeah we already have one. I never said I thought a top pairing RD was more valuable. I said that a top pairing RD is more scarce than a franchise 1C.

 

[Juxtaposer]

Yeah we already have one. I never said I thought a top pairing RD was more valuable. I said that a top pairing RD is more scarce than a franchise 1C.

Who cares about scarcity when you quite simply do not need a top-pairing RHD to contend for a Stanley Cup. Why give up premium assets for a premium position when you don't even need it? You need legit top-4 RHD, but you don't need a top-pairing caliber RHD. If Dobson becomes available for the typical package of a player of his age/caliber/contract status, AND is willing to sign a reasonable contract, then that's one thing. Burns went for Setoguchi/Coyle/late 1st, Karlsson went for Demelo/Norris/what was supposed to be a late 1st. There is no world in which Dobson, who is worse and less proven than either, gets the 3rd or 4th overall pick in return.

 

[Juxtaposer]

I really, really, really like Malcolm Spence. He's got Zayne Parekh completely off his game. Type of guy who will skate through a wall in the playoffs. Got that dawg in him like Zach Benson, but in a projectable NHL frame. Lots of muck and grind abilities and great instincts around the net. He's an ideal third liner on a contending NHL team.

 

[Lebanezer]

I really, really, really like Malcolm Spence. He's got Zayne Parekh completely off his game. Type of guy who will skate through a wall in the playoffs. Got that dawg in him like Zach Benson, but in a projectable NHL frame. Lots of muck and grind abilities and great instincts around the net. He's an ideal third liner on a contending NHL team.

It's funny that he and Schaefer are first year draft eligible players and Spence is just under one year older.

 

[Juxtaposer]

It's funny that he and Schaefer are first year draft eligible players and Spence is just under one year older.

Yep, goes to show why it's important to take age into consideration within draft classes. Spence is basically a finished product at this point, between his already incredibly mature pro-style game and his age.

 

[gaucholoco3]

Who cares about scarcity when you quite simply do not need a top-pairing RHD to contend for a Stanley Cup. Why give up premium assets for a premium position when you don't even need it? You need legit top-4 RHD, but you don't need a top-pairing caliber RHD. If Dobson becomes available for the typical package of a player of his age/caliber/contract status, AND is willing to sign a reasonable contract, then that's one thing. Burns went for Setoguchi/Coyle/late 1st, Karlsson went for Demelo/Norris/what was supposed to be a late 1st. There is no world in which Dobson, who is worse and less proven than either, gets the 3rd or 4th overall pick in return.

While I agree that the 4th overall pick is probably an overpay for Dobson, fans and teams vastly overpay for draft picks even high ones. Most top 10 picks end up as middle six or middle pairing players.

It reminds me of the family guy mystery box scene. For example Levshunov last years number 2 pick has a ceiling of Dobson but is more likely to end up as a middle pairing D. I would argue having Dobson locked up 7 years is more valuable than the potential for Levshunov to turn into Dobson.

For the Sharks with Celebrini establishing himself as already a franchise 1C and Smith showing growth to be a legit top 6 player on a cup team I would argue having Dobson for 7+ years is more important than Martone or Hagens who even if they hit their ceiling would be at best the Sharks 3rd best forward and have strong potential to bust.

Now I don’t think the Sharks would need to offer 4 for Dobson straight up and can likely build a competitive offer without the 4th pick or can get back the 13th overall pick if they include 4. I’m just arguing that Dobson would be a better fit for the Sharks than Martone or Hagens.

 

[Pinkfloyd]

While I agree that the 4th overall pick is probably an overpay for Dobson, fans and teams vastly overpay for draft picks even high ones. Most top 10 picks end up as middle six or middle pairing players.

It reminds me of the family guy mystery box scene. For example Levshunov last years number 2 pick has a ceiling of Dobson but is more likely to end up as a middle pairing D. I would argue having Dobson locked up 7 years is more valuable than the potential for Levshunov to turn into Dobson.

For the Sharks with Celebrini establishing himself as already a franchise 1C and Smith showing growth to be a legit top 6 player on a cup team I would argue having Dobson for 7+ years is more important than Martone or Hagens who even if they hit their ceiling would be at best the Sharks 3rd best forward and have strong potential to bust.

Now I don’t think the Sharks would need to offer 4 for Dobson straight up and can likely build a competitive offer without the 4th pick or can get back the 13th overall pick if they include 4. I’m just arguing that Dobson would be a better fit for the Sharks than Martone or Hagens.

You’re not really talking about a top ten pick. You’re talking about 4th overall which has a much different success rate than what you’re putting out here. I don’t think there’s a compelling argument that Dobson at a full rate would be more valuable than another top six forward on an ELC.

 

[Juxtaposer]

While I agree that the 4th overall pick is probably an overpay for Dobson, fans and teams vastly overpay for draft picks even high ones. Most top 10 picks end up as middle six or middle pairing players.

It reminds me of the family guy mystery box scene. For example Levshunov last years number 2 pick has a ceiling of Dobson but is more likely to end up as a middle pairing D. I would argue having Dobson locked up 7 years is more valuable than the potential for Levshunov to turn into Dobson.

For the Sharks with Celebrini establishing himself as already a franchise 1C and Smith showing growth to be a legit top 6 player on a cup team I would argue having Dobson for 7+ years is more important than Martone or Hagens who even if they hit their ceiling would be at best the Sharks 3rd best forward and have strong potential to bust.

Now I don’t think the Sharks would need to offer 4 for Dobson straight up and can likely build a competitive offer without the 4th pick or can get back the 13th overall pick if they include 4. I’m just arguing that Dobson would be a better fit for the Sharks than Martone or Hagens.

If Dobson were 18 year old, then of course. But Dobson is 25 and about to get a huge overpayment on a long-term contract. The years of team control and age difference more than make up the difference in "fit" strictly talking about our rebuild.

 

[DarrylshutzSydor]

You’re not really talking about a top ten pick. You’re talking about 4th overall which has a much different success rate than what you’re putting out here. I don’t think there’s a compelling argument that Dobson at a full rate would be more valuable than another top six forward on an ELC.

Wait until after the draft to sign Dobson to an offer sheet? UFA/RFA begins after this years draft correct?

 

[Pinkfloyd]

Wait until after the draft to sign Dobson to an offer sheet? UFA/RFA begins after this years draft correct?

If the Sharks haven't made a trade for Dobson by July 1 when RFA starts, I can't imagine them getting him. Dobson can go for arbitration on July 5 but it'll let Dobson walk in two years. If they're at that point with Dobson, they probably will just get ahead of that and get the value they can at the draft. His value is likely a pick in the teens-32 range, a prospect drafted in that area recently or valued similarly, and a useful roster player. Plenty of teams will have that offer out there. We can outbid them but I just don't feel super good about Dobson wanting to come out here when he holds enough cards to pick his spots.

 

[Gecklund]

I really, really, really like Malcolm Spence. He's got Zayne Parekh completely off his game. Type of guy who will skate through a wall in the playoffs. Got that dawg in him like Zach Benson, but in a projectable NHL frame. Lots of muck and grind abilities and great instincts around the net. He's an ideal third liner on a contending NHL team.

I’m in a mock draft on the mock drafts boards where I wasn’t paying attention and missed him going a couple picks before Dallas’s first. If I was paying attention I would have traded up (although I got bored and traded for Josi so didn’t have 33)

 

[Grinner]

I’m in a mock draft on the mock drafts boards where I wasn’t paying attention and missed him going a couple picks before Dallas’s first. If I was paying attention I would have traded up (although I got bored and traded for Josi so didn’t have 33)

That was a terrible trade on your part
35 years old and suffered a season ending concussion.

 

[gaucholoco3]

You’re not really talking about a top ten pick. You’re talking about 4th overall which has a much different success rate than what you’re putting out here. I don’t think there’s a compelling argument that Dobson at a full rate would be more valuable than another top six forward on an ELC.

Top 4 picks still have a significantly high bust rate enough so that I would be comfortable trading #4 for a guaranteed top of the lineup player even if they are at full cap hit and not on their ELC. Specifically because where the Sharks are with their long term cap they can afford to taking on 2-3 full cap hit players currently and it wouldn’t burden the team’s long term cap.

I went through the 10 drafts from 2010 through 2019 to look at how many #3 through #6 picks (a proxy for #4) failed to become top 6 or top 4 players.

2010 Draft
#3 Gudbranson
#5 Niederreiter (good 3rd line but not top 6)
#6 Connolly

2011 Draft
All 4 became top 6 or top 4

2012 Draft
#3 Galchenyuk
#4 Reinhart

2013 Draft
All 4 became top 6 or top 4 (borderline Ryan Strome)

2014 Draft
#5 Dal Colle
#6 Virtanen

2015 Draft
All 4 became top 6 or top 4 (borderline Pavel Zacha)

2016 Draft
#4 Puljujarvi
#5 Juolevi

2017 Draft
#6 Glass

2018 Draft
#3 Kotkaniemi
#5 Hayton
#6 Zadina

2019 Draft
#3 Dach
#5 Turcotte

So in 15 out of 40 picks over 10 drafts a 3rd through 6th pick busted. That is a 37.5% bust rate. At that bust rate given the clean cap sheet the Sharks have and the fact they don’t need the 4th overall pick to be one of their top 2 FWs I would absolutely be comfortable trading for Dobson to get certainty than rolling the dice on whoever the Sharks pick at #4.

Again I don’t think they will nor should they make the trade straight up based on historical value. I’m just arguing I would prefer the known quantity for 7 years of Celebrini’s prime than hope the #4 pick doesn’t bust.

 

[matt trick]

I'd move Misa for Dahlin, Hughes, or Makar, and a top top 4 pick for Seider, Faber, Sanderson, Lacombe, Edvinsson, L. Hughes, Buium, Levshunov, or Parekh.

I'd consider Vlasic and Guhle because they're 100% the type of d-man you win with, and they have great contracts, but probably pass with the hope I could draft and develop my own lockdown guy by the time the team is ready to compete.

While I'd love to add Byram, Dobson, K'Andre Miller, Nemec, or Clarke, I wouldn't offer up that premium of an asset. If one of these guys is available, who do you see offering up an elite center prospect (better than your choice of Hagens, Frondell, Desnoyers)?

St. Louis (Dvorsky), Seattle (one of their big three), and Columbus (Lindstrom) seem the most likely (defensive need, desire to fast track, better than Musty+1st+), but none of them seem particularly likely as they need centers just as much as dman.

Elite teams will move premium prospects including centers, but Ritchie is kind of the last one who was owned by a contender. Detroit (Kaspar/Danielson) and Buff (Helenius/Kulich) could, but they're neither ready, and they need centers more than D.

 

[Friday]

Current tank standings are SJ, Chicago, Nashville, Buffalo. Got me thinking about who each franchise would pick 1OV, Seems like it's a good storm for SJ. Chicago probably wouldn't take Schaefer when Bedard needs so much help in the top 6 / and after spending a 2nd OV last year on a #1 D man type? Buffalo obviously has Dahlin and Power, would seem like they'd go forward as well. If Nashville isn't in a teardown after this year and they're in a try to retool they might go forward as well to fit their now window better? Very real if San Jose is picking 2nd Schaefer could still be an option. Anyways, seeing those standings made me feel better about the current trending position. Toss it out the window if everyones rolling their eyes saying always draft best possible choice no matter fit, but maybe Misa has closed the gap to where its even enough for a maybe

 

[sampler]

The more I think about it, the more I realllllly wanna finish last to eliminate the chance of 4th overall. I do not want Hagens. This team needs size, and I bet if the sharks pass Chicago, and then somehow ended up 4th and schaefer, misa, and martone are off, I think Grier would have to take a swing at a guy like McQueen or Desnoyers, which is a far cry from the other three.

Sharks need to get one of the big three, and finishing last is the only way to guarantee that. Lets call up Gush and Bordy and go with a fully AHL roster... might be able to maximize offseason trade value there too...

 

[Gecklund]

The more I think about it, the more I realllllly wanna finish last to eliminate the chance of 4th overall. I do not want Hagens. This team needs size, and I bet if the sharks pass Chicago, and then somehow ended up 4th and schaefer, misa, and martone are off, I think Grier would have to take a swing at a guy like McQueen or Desnoyers, which is a far cry from the other three.

Sharks need to get one of the big three, and finishing last is the only way to guarantee that. Lets call up Gush and Bordy and go with a fully AHL roster... might be able to maximize offseason trade value there too...

I’d pretty easily take Frondell and be happy if Misa and Schaefer are gone so if Martone goes 3rd and Sharks pick 4th you take Frondell and move on.

 

[Pinkfloyd]

Top 4 picks still have a significantly high bust rate enough so that I would be comfortable trading #4 for a guaranteed top of the lineup player even if they are at full cap hit and not on their ELC. Specifically because where the Sharks are with their long term cap they can afford to taking on 2-3 full cap hit players currently and it wouldn’t burden the team’s long term cap.

I went through the 10 drafts from 2010 through 2019 to look at how many #3 through #6 picks (a proxy for #4) failed to become top 6 or top 4 players.

2010 Draft
#3 Gudbranson
#5 Niederreiter (good 3rd line but not top 6)
#6 Connolly

2011 Draft
All 4 became top 6 or top 4

2012 Draft
#3 Galchenyuk
#4 Reinhart

2013 Draft
All 4 became top 6 or top 4 (borderline Ryan Strome)

2014 Draft
#5 Dal Colle
#6 Virtanen

2015 Draft
All 4 became top 6 or top 4 (borderline Pavel Zacha)

2016 Draft
#4 Puljujarvi
#5 Juolevi

2017 Draft
#6 Glass

2018 Draft
#3 Kotkaniemi
#5 Hayton
#6 Zadina

2019 Draft
#3 Dach
#5 Turcotte

So in 15 out of 40 picks over 10 drafts a 3rd through 6th pick busted. That is a 37.5% bust rate. At that bust rate given the clean cap sheet the Sharks have and the fact they don’t need the 4th overall pick to be one of their top 2 FWs I would absolutely be comfortable trading for Dobson to get certainty than rolling the dice on whoever the Sharks pick at #4.

Again I don’t think they will nor should they make the trade straight up based on historical value. I’m just arguing I would prefer the known quantity for 7 years of Celebrini’s prime than hope the #4 pick doesn’t bust.

Again, you’re bringing extra unnecessary data points to attribute to a 4oa bust rate. All to defend the value of a defenseman that isn’t a guaranteed top of the lineup producer in line with the full freight of his next contract while paying over market value for him.

It’s a bad idea regardless of the scarcity of the position.

 

[LadyStanley]

 

[Juxtaposer]

I'm curious where Max gets the impression that Misa is the greater talent between him and Schaefer.

The only reason someone should consider Misa over Schaefer is if they have an extreme need for a C over a LHD (Chicago/Buffalo) or if they really, really don't trust Schaefer's lack of games or injury prognosis.

Schaefer is an elite talent. Misa is a great, high-floor player.

 

[coooldude]

I'm curious where Max gets the impression that Misa is the greater talent between him and Schaefer.

The only reason someone should consider Misa over Schaefer is if they have an extreme need for a C over a LHD (Chicago/Buffalo) or if they really, really don't trust Schaefer's lack of games or injury prognosis.

Schaefer is an elite talent. Misa is a great, high-floor player.

I like max as an eager, earnest guy covering the Sharks, but I'm not sure I am going to think much about his opinions on the draft.

 

[Juxtaposer]

I like max as an eager, earnest guy covering the Sharks, but I'm not sure I am going to think much about his opinions on the draft.

Sure, but that seems like a basic fact to get wrong. The whole basis of the article is "should the Sharks take the BPA or draft for need", which is a completely false premise, since the BPA and positional need are the same player. He could still write the same article except use the "drafting D high has been historically iffy and we don't know Smith is a center for sure and the Misa/Chernyshov connection is cool" angle to make the debate.

 

[gaucholoco3]

Again, you’re bringing extra unnecessary data points to attribute to a 4oa bust rate. All to defend the value of a defenseman that isn’t a guaranteed top of the lineup producer in line with the full freight of his next contract while paying over market value for him.

It’s a bad idea regardless of the scarcity of the position.

Simply only using #4 overall exactly is not a good use of statistics so including picks 3-6 as a proxy is a way to add some data to make it less of a sample size. This list also didn’t include multiple busts in the top 2 picks (Yakipov, Patrick). The average #4 overall pick will still have at minimum a 25% chance of not being a top 6/top 4 player which would be a bust from that draft spot.

I don’t think they should make that trade straight up but more due to historical value than the actual value of the pick. Draft picks are over valued compared to their actual hit rates.

 

[OversKy]

Hot take here, but I kinda want us to either win the lottery and somehow MacGyver a 2025 1st round lottery pick in the next draft. That or lose the lottery and win the next one. Misa and Schaefer are almost interchangeable for me prospect wise and neither have me champing at the bit like McKenna/Dupont. Even missing those big two there are some real eye opening prospects in this draft and one year isn't going to kill Smith and Celebrini's morale.

 

[Pinkfloyd]

Simply only using #4 overall exactly is not a good use of statistics so including picks 3-6 as a proxy is a way to add some data to make it less of a sample size. This list also didn’t include multiple busts in the top 2 picks (Yakipov, Patrick). The average #4 overall pick will still have at minimum a 25% chance of not being a top 6/top 4 player which would be a bust from that draft spot.

I don’t think they should make that trade straight up but more due to historical value than the actual value of the pick. Draft picks are over valued compared to their actual hit rates.

Using an unbalanced range of picks around four also is not good use of statistics since you’re not actually addressing the sample size issue.

That prospect has historically brought more value than a player in Dobson’s situation. It’s why they don’t get traded for one another. It’s why players like Dobson always go for less regardless of the odds a fourth overall player fills a particular role. Maybe they are overrated but I don’t see how any of your arguments supports that.