So if we end up 3OA:
Who's everyone's pick out of Hagens, Martone, Frondell, etc.
I've mentioned six or seven guys I think are legitimate possibilities for #3, but I think it will come down to the three you mentioned and Desnoyers, depending on a few factors.
1. Does the size mandate extend to a 3rd overall pick? If so, rule out Hagens.
2. Does Grier see Smith as a legitimate long-term 2C? If not, then there is a greater premium on Hagens and Desnoyers. I am not convinced that Frondell is a center long-term.
3. Even if Grier does see Smith as a long-term solution at 2C, does building an elite center spine still take precedent over anything else? A center spine of Celebrini-Smith-Desnoyers-Ostapchuk would be ridiculous.
4. Is Grier interested in upside over all-else? Does he see Martone as a future Tkachuk/Perry type? He isn't that physical right now but he's also 18 and filling out and definitely has some agitator qualities. If that's a player archetype he values highly
and he's shooting for pure offensive upside, then Martone has to be the guy.
5. Is he satisfied with Celebrini/Smith/Eklund as the play-drivers of this core? Does he value a guy who can crash and bang a bit and finish in dirty areas? Frondell would then become palatable.
So I would say this: if we don't believe in Smith as a long-term center, then Martone becomes less valuable. If aren't satisfied with the play-drivers we already have, then Desnoyers and Frondell are less interesting. If size in the top-6 is a concern, then Hagens probably isn't the best bet.
I would put money on Martone if I had a gun to my head to make the selection. But Frondell fits a Grier archetype and is probably the only one of those guys who will get a last shot to improve his stock at the U18, an event that Grier has historically placed great value on with his high picks (Bystedt, Havelid, Halttunen, Smith). Desnoyers' playoff performance may be a factor, especially if he makes it to the Mem Cup. Hagens is basically a fixed asset IMO, where what you see is what you get, but if you don't like the risk profile of the other guys, then he should be the pick.
My prediction of Grier's final list:
3. Frondell
4. Martone
5. Desnoyers
6. Hagens
I don't feel like McQueen, Eklund, and J. Smith will be seriously considered, rightly or wrongly. I don't think Grier has ever really surprised me with a pick, in that everyone he's gone for in the early rounds is someone who makes a lot of sense to be taken where they're taken.