2025 NHL Draft: Lose a ton for Porter Martone

[Friday]

The difference between 3 and 4 is semantic. I only care about clinching last because of the 45% chance at Schaefer/Misa, not because dropping to 4 would be any worse than dropping to 3.

I think any of Hagens/Martone/Desnoyers/Frondell will be options at 3 or 4 for Grier, and I don't see a ton of separation between them. Martone has higher upside than anyone else but the other three have much higher floors, so my risk tolerance puts them all in the same group.

Of our remaining 12 games, the only ones against teams not fighting for a playoff spot are Seattle and Anaheim. Lots of games against teams fighting for a playoff spot (NYR, Calgary, Vancouver, Minnesota or teams jockeying for seeding (LA, Edmonton, Toronto). In Georgiev we must trust.

Frondell is really rising right now huh? Seemed like he was floating away from the 3/4 convo and now im seeing him at 3 all the sudden

 

[Juxtaposer]

Frondell is really rising right now huh? Seemed like he was floating away from the 3/4 convo and now im seeing him at 3 all the sudden

He absolutely tore up the Allsvenskan in the last couple months alongside Young Eklund. He could cap off his season with a great U18 and be a firm top-5 guy with a good enough performance.

I am not totally sold on Frondell to be honest, but we do have an Eklund he could play with who does the things I think Frondell lacks. I think Frondell is more of a good 2W than the 1C some optimistic folks are seeing, personally, but I can see Grier and co. liking him more than Hagens.

 

[Friday]

He absolutely tore up the Allsvenskan in the last couple months alongside Young Eklund. He could cap off his season with a great U18 and be a firm top-5 guy with a good enough performance.

I am not totally sold on Frondell to be honest, but we do have an Eklund he could play with who does the things I think Frondell lacks. I think Frondell is more of a good 2W than the 1C some optimistic folks are seeing, personally, but I can see Grier and co. liking him more than Hagens.

That's exactly it, I really dont love Hagens so im happy another player is rising. Just haven't watched him at all. Last year Frondell was floated around as a potential 1 OV, when him and Hagens fell off this draft began to look so weak. Ryabkin too and he's not in anyones top 20 anymore

 

[PattyLafontaine]

Magic number is 21.

 

[Juxtaposer]

That's exactly it, I really dont love Hagens so im happy another player is rising. Just haven't watched him at all. Last year Frondell was floated around as a potential 1 OV, when him and Hagens fell off this draft began to look so weak. Ryabkin too and he's not in anyones top 20 anymore

Yeah, it's good that someone is stepping up in the late season. At least gives us some options instead of being forced to take Hagens because no one else is close.


On a lighter note, perhaps the real Noah Gregor is the Ryan Donato we met along the way.

 

[vortexx]

Huge result for us, Blackhawks win today! In terms of who we would take at #3 or #4, I think Grier will go for Martone or Frondell. I want Hagens there but I won’t complain if he opts for the other two

 

[Star Platinum]

Yeah, it's good that someone is stepping up in the late season. At least gives us some options instead of being forced to take Hagens because no one else is close.

I think of it less as others are stepping up and more as no one has stepped up enough.

 

[dmcccdmn]

Wow, Sharks got lucky today. CHI won to keep pace with the Sharks. We're still 4 points behind.

 

[hohosaregood]

So how crazy would Jackson Smith be at 3 or 4? Considering McKeen's got him at 5 and I don't know much about him

 

[Patty Ice]

So how crazy would Jackson Smith be at 3 or 4? Considering McKeen's got him at 5 and I don't know much about him

There is a lot, A LOT to like about Jackson Smith but also a degree of apprehension taking him in the top 5.

Picking him at 3 or 4 is akin to the Sennecke pick last year. It's a big swing for the fences.

My personal preference if the Sharks are picking 3 would be Hagens. I still believe he is an organization's best chance at a successful pick after Schaefer.

 

[coooldude]

There is a lot, A LOT to like about Jackson Smith but also a degree of apprehension taking him in the top 5.

Picking him at 3 or 4 is akin to the Sennecke pick last year. It's a big swing for the fences.

My personal preference if the Sharks are picking 3 would be Hagens. I still believe he is an organization's best chance at a successful pick after Schaefer.

I low-key think Smith might be on the radar. He's not Schaefer but he's similar in good ways to Dickinson and different in decent ways too. One comp on his thread is Mintyukov, which is high risk high reward whether they can translate their game to the NHL... But he is also a bit bigger and more physical. Excellent mobility, some stellar offensive playmaking, some great defensive awareness, some true boneheaded decisions, some great physicality but not the core of his game. Needs to work on his shot but he has the body so that feels doable. Feels closer to Lefty Brent Burns than Dickinson IMHO. Does feel like the Sennecke comp is apt in the way you describe.

 

[Jargon]

I low-key think Smith might be on the radar. He's not Schaefer but he's similar in good ways to Dickinson and different in decent ways too. One comp on his thread is Mintyukov, which is high risk high reward whether they can translate their game to the NHL... But he is also a bit bigger and more physical. Excellent mobility, some stellar offensive playmaking, some great defensive awareness, some true boneheaded decisions, some great physicality but not the core of his game. Needs to work on his shot but he has the body so that feels doable. Feels closer to Lefty Brent Burns than Dickinson IMHO. Does feel like the Sennecke comp is apt in the way you describe.

If that was the case and we were 3rd I think you’d have to trade down to like 5.

I still sorta suspect Martone though (for 3).

 

[timorous me]

If that was the case and we were 3rd I think you’d have to trade down to like 5.

I still sorta suspect Martone though (for 3).

Isn't it wild to think of just what a different feeling it is from a year ago to now? Obviously we're all extremely thirsty still for the #1 pick in 2025, but having won the Celebrini lottery (and, dare I say, he's better than almost all of us could have imagined at this point?), having Smith developing in some vital ways over the course of his age-19 season, and having a handful of prospects taking major steps forward this year (including some, like Dickinson and Chernyshov, allowing us to believe that they could actually become top pairing/top six players—and, uh, both of those guys weren't even with the organization a year ago!), what a wildly different—and hopeful—position we're in now compared to this point a year ago.

All the losing can obviously get one down, but holy hell this is the kind of sea change that you absolutely cannot expect in a year (and, come to think of it, makes me want to put on Beck's album of that name, Sea Change—pretty damn overlooked but so good yet moody enough that it'll probably sap me immediately of all these positive vibes I'm feeling at the moment).

 

[JotAlan]

For the sake of curiosity, between Misa and Smith, who is better, in your opinion?:

Skating
Passing
Shooting
Hockey IQ
Hands
Defense
Face-off

 

[matt trick]

For the sake of curiosity, between Misa and Smith, who is better, in your opinion?:

Skating
Passing
Shooting
Hockey IQ
Hands
Defense
Face-off

Skating- Misa (not close)
Passing-Smith
Shooting- Misa (close)
IQ- Smith (by some distance IMO)
Hands- Smith
Defense- Misa (not close)
Face-Off- Misa

Misa is also 1-2 inches taller and more physical. He’s the better prospect, and more likely as a center IMO (though I expect both will end up as centers).

Their goal scoring prowess is different. Not many players I trust more with space in the slot than Smith. His wrister is lethal. Misa has a more complete set of goal scoring skills, heavier shot, more demonstrated breakaway dekes (due to opportunities from his speed) and shoots quite a bit more. I’d pick Smith for accuracy, Misa for power, and Misa for higher goal scoring.

Comparing players from two years and two leagues isn’t easy, particularly when it comes to evaluating hockey sense. I think Smith has a significantly better hockey brain, but part of that is likely environment (you get away with a lot of dumb shit in junior, and more games mean each is less valuable than then 40 college games). Misa projects as a more complete player largely because of size, physicality, and speed. It’s possible Smith brain is so good he impacts the game significantly more in the offensive zone.

If we had both, I’d probably line up Misa at center, but Smith would likely be the primary creator in the offensive zone.

Eklund-Misa-Smith would be an extremely complete line. Not big, but Eklund, Misa, and Celebrini are all serious puck hounds which would benefit Smith.

If we get Misa or Schaefer we’ll be over the moon. I think I’d take Demidov, Buium, Dickinson, Parekh, or Levshunov over any of Hagens, Frondell, Martone, or Smith. All are excellent prospects, but the gap between Celebrini and Misa/Schaefer is a big as those two and the next group of prospects, excluding Demidov. Levshunov and Parekh have sky high potential, but are riskier IMO.

Should note, I’ve watched the OHL guys the most, but we’re talking between 4-7 games for all but Levshunov and Frondell (less for them). There are way more informed folks than me.

 

[gaucholoco3]

I low-key think Smith might be on the radar. He's not Schaefer but he's similar in good ways to Dickinson and different in decent ways too. One comp on his thread is Mintyukov, which is high risk high reward whether they can translate their game to the NHL... But he is also a bit bigger and more physical. Excellent mobility, some stellar offensive playmaking, some great defensive awareness, some true boneheaded decisions, some great physicality but not the core of his game. Needs to work on his shot but he has the body so that feels doable. Feels closer to Lefty Brent Burns than Dickinson IMHO. Does feel like the Sennecke comp is apt in the way you describe.

He does sound very similar to Dickinson. Smith would give the Sharks 3 big smooth skating LD.

Smith -
Dickinson -
Mukamadulin -

That would allow MG to fill in lesser RD knowing LD will have a big mobile guy to cover. Similar to how TB built their blue line.

Obviously Schaefer would be preferred but I could see the benefit of Smith over everyone else except for Misa.

 

[coooldude]

He does sound very similar to Dickinson. Smith would give the Sharks 3 big smooth skating LD.

Smith -
Dickinson -
Mukamadulin -

That would allow MG to fill in lesser RD knowing LD will have a big mobile guy to cover. Similar to how TB built their blue line.

Obviously Schaefer would be preferred but I could see the benefit of Smith over everyone else except for Misa.

He's fun to watch out there -- exceptionally mobile, but definitely head scratching at times and described as a "project pick" in his thread which makes sense. I think the Sennecke analogy is apt. Big risk in it, but I would argue there's big risk in a Martone pick too, and we need a D hit more than a wing hit.

I'm not personally arguing we should pick J Smith at #3, not yet at least, but I am saying I think GMMG and team might be considering it and it might not be a terrible option. Everyone in the 3-9ish tier has warts... Hagens, Martone, Frondell, Eklund, Smith, Desnoyers, Mrtka.

 

[Hodge]

I'm fine with anyone except Hagens and Baby Eklund.

 

[Juxtaposer]

For the sake of curiosity, between Misa and Smith, who is better, in your opinion?:

JMO:

Skating: Misa by a lot
Passing: Smith by a lot
Shooting: Smith has the better pure shot, but Misa will be the better goalscorer because he goes to the dirty areas constantly and bangs home a ton of rebounds
Hockey IQ: Smith, but Misa is no slouch here
Hands: Smith, but it's close
Defense: Misa, not close, but Misa isn't a future Selke guy by any means; think he's an "above average" defensive player at the NHL level
Face-off: Misa, not close

He's fun to watch out there -- exceptionally mobile, but definitely head scratching at times and described as a "project pick" in his thread which makes sense. I think the Sennecke analogy is apt. Big risk in it, but I would argue there's big risk in a Martone pick too, and we need a D hit more than a wing hit.

I'm not personally arguing we should pick J Smith at #3, not yet at least, but I am saying I think GMMG and team might be considering it and it might not be a terrible option. Everyone in the 3-9ish tier has warts... Hagens, Martone, Frondell, Eklund, Smith, Desnoyers, Mrtka.

I wouldn't be mad, exactly, if we took Jackson Smith 3rd overall, but it wouldn't feel good to me. I don't really feel desperate to get a D that isn't clearly better than Dickinson. Smith is just another Dickinson level prospect.

 

[Star Platinum]

All the losing can obviously get one down, but holy hell this is the kind of sea change that you absolutely cannot expect in a year (and, come to think of it, makes me want to put on Beck's album of that name, Sea Change—pretty damn overlooked but so good yet moody enough that it'll probably sap me immediately of all these positive vibes I'm feeling at the moment).

The Sharks are a lost
The Sharks are a lost
Baby, they're a lost cause

 

[coooldude]

I wouldn't be mad, exactly, if we took Jackson Smith 3rd overall, but it wouldn't feel good to me. I don't really feel desperate to get a D that isn't clearly better than Dickinson. Smith is just another Dickinson level prospect.

I feel the same way about picking 3 as I felt about picking 2 last year.

The prospect picked there will immediately become our 1st, 2nd, or 3rd most important prospect in and around Asky and Dickinson, and I will feel very queasy about whoever it is.

 

[Juxtaposer]

I feel the same way about picking 3 as I felt about picking 2 last year.

The prospect picked there will immediately become our 1st, 2nd, or 3rd most important prospect in and around Asky and Dickinson, and I will feel very queasy about whoever it is.

Hmm, I actually found that I had a bit of a preference even after Celebrini last year. As the draft approached, striations in my ranking settled out. I had 2/Demidov, 3/Buium, 4/Lindstrom (not taking injury into account), 5/Levshunov in that order, and felt they were all viable #2 overall candidates but that I did have a distinct preference for that order within the group.

Perhaps that will happen again as we get closer to the draft itself. Right now, I'm definitely a bit muddled about it.

 

[TheBeard]

If we're 3 or lower, I wonder if there's a trade back option where we can stay in the top ten and get an A prospect?

 

[coooldude]

Hmm, I actually found that I had a bit of a preference even after Celebrini last year. As the draft approached, striations in my ranking settled out. I had 2/Demidov, 3/Buium, 4/Lindstrom (not taking injury into account), 5/Levshunov in that order, and felt they were all viable #2 overall candidates but that I did have a distinct preference for that order within the group.

Perhaps that will happen again as we get closer to the draft itself. Right now, I'm definitely a bit muddled about it.

Yeah, I had Demidov, Lindstrom, Buium, Sennecke, Dickinson. But it was a big drop (of course).

I'll have preferences this year, I'm sure, but it'll still feel like a big drop from 1 to 2, and bigger from 2 to 3.

Also I'm proud to say I had Cherny at 15.

 

[Juxtaposer]

Yeah, I had Demidov, Lindstrom, Buium, Sennecke, Dickinson. But it was a big drop (of course).

I'll have preferences this year, I'm sure, but it'll still feel like a big drop from 1 to 2, and bigger from 2 to 3.

Also I'm proud to say I had Cherny at 15.

Here's my pre-draft top-20 ranking (note the time stamp!):

Gotta say, I think this one is holding up pretty well.

Right now at #3 in 2025, I'm kinda at "hold my nose and just take Martone". But I absolutely understand why someone would be hesitant to do so. Hagens is the BPA, Frondell brings something to the table we don't have in the system right now, Desnoyers projects as a good defensive 2C with some size, Eklund is a pitbull, McQueen has a unique toolkit, and J. Smith is another high-end D prospect. All are justifiable, yet none would make me really happy.

It's also super interesting how the closer you are to exiting a rebuild, the more fit matters in drafting. I almost feel like part of draft "luck" is having the BPA at your early-rebuild lottery picks be a ubiquitous player archetype, so that later in the rebuild you have more freedom to take the true BPA and not have to worry about fit. Like as much as I adore Smith and think he has sky-high scoring upside, if we'd been in a position to draft Fantilli or Carlsson in 2023, who have some size and two-way acumen, then we could just comfortably take Hagens at #3 this year and not stress about it because your center core has some size and defensive ability and you could just use Hagens as an elite playmaking winger.

C'est le vie. My hope right now is that Frondell absolutely dominates the U18 to make him a justifiable pick for me. Desnoyers should have a long Mem Cup run that could show an extra developmental step. We'll see. We know Grier values the U18 a lot.