2025 NHL Draft: Lose a ton for Porter Martone

[sampler]

Sharks will take Schaefer/Misa/Martone with the first pick (in that order).

With the later picks, they will draft for size over skill. 6'1 will be the min with preference for 6'2-6'4.

Just look at the picks grier has made last year as well as the trades. Celebrini aside, he took Dick over Buium (size). He took Cherny (size). LSW is on the smaller side, but Roberts and Misskey are big. Haltunnen big. Musty big. Bystedt big. lund big.

Every 1st and 2nd rounder not named smith or celebrini was big, with only LSW as exception.

Vanecek trade: Giles, big.
Zetterlund trade: Ostaphuk, big.
Desharnais big.

Gee, I wonder what type of team Grier is trying to build???? He drafted Celly and Smith because their skill was too good to pass up, but also both are 6'0 not 5'9 or 5'10, so they aren't exactly undersized.

Grier is not going to draft for skill over size unless the skill is just overwhelming. He'll try to maximize skill but within the confines of size, so while he might package a second to move up, I think its unlikely he'll pick anyone 6'0 or less in the first 2 rounds.

 

[MackAttack71]

Every 1st and 2nd rounder not named smith or celebrini was big, with only LSW as exception.

Havelid belongs to the smurfs also.

 

[STL Shark]

He suggested he would be trading picks for players, but I kinda feel like picks aren't that valuable right now.

As I've said before, I just don't think there are literally any teams trying to do a full tear down (like I can't identify even one) and cap space is not at a premium like it was last off-season.

If the reports about Hensler are true, then I wouldn't hate packaging picks for him.

This is the cyclical nature that happens every year. Maybe it changes this year with the draft not being in person, but historically teams trade 1st rounders like candy at the TDL and then when they don't have one at the draft they feel the need to try and deal for one to be part of the action.

Best chance is finding pending RFAs and the threat of an offersheet later or they can deal him now for a slightly better return than the offersheet.

Other option is looking at teams like Winnipeg that has a checkered history of being able to sign guys. Not that he's the biggest positional need, but is Gabe Vilardi eager to sign a long-term deal in WPG or is he looking for a 1-2 year bridge to UFA? Depending on that answer, they may be inclined to move him for a 1st rounder + to reset the clock on another longer term piece.

 

[STL Shark]

Sharks will take Schaefer/Misa/Martone with the first pick (in that order).

With the later picks, they will draft for size over skill. 6'1 will be the min with preference for 6'2-6'4.

Just look at the picks grier has made last year as well as the trades. Celebrini aside, he took Dick over Buium (size). He took Cherny (size). LSW is on the smaller side, but Roberts and Misskey are big. Haltunnen big. Musty big. Bystedt big. lund big.

Every 1st and 2nd rounder not named smith or celebrini was big, with only LSW as exception.

Vanecek trade: Giles, big.
Zetterlund trade: Ostaphuk, big.
Desharnais big.

Gee, I wonder what type of team Grier is trying to build???? He drafted Celly and Smith because their skill was too good to pass up, but also both are 6'0 not 5'9 or 5'10, so they aren't exactly undersized.

Grier is not going to draft for skill over size unless the skill is just overwhelming. He'll try to maximize skill but within the confines of size, so while he might package a second to move up, I think its unlikely he'll pick anyone 6'0 or less in the first 2 rounds.

Which is probably smart because if you have size, your odds of being at worst a bottom pairing or bottom 6 player is much higher. Also easier to trade a player with size as opposed to not because the 5'11 skilled junior with average attributes in the mid-1st round to 2nd round is super generic and not all that valuable if they don't make it by the time they're 21.

Not saying that Musty or Chernyshov are likely to develop into grinders if their skill doesn't get them into the Top 6, but we've seen guys like Kostin get chance after chance in trades because they're big and skilled. .

 

[Juxtaposer]

This is the cyclical nature that happens every year. Maybe it changes this year with the draft not being in person, but historically teams trade 1st rounders like candy at the TDL and then when they don't have one at the draft they feel the need to try and deal for one to be part of the action.

Best chance is finding pending RFAs and the threat of an offersheet later or they can deal him now for a slightly better return than the offersheet.

Other option is looking at teams like Winnipeg that has a checkered history of being able to sign guys. Not that he's the biggest positional need, but is Gabe Vilardi eager to sign a long-term deal in WPG or is he looking for a 1-2 year bridge to UFA? Depending on that answer, they may be inclined to move him for a 1st rounder + to reset the clock on another longer term piece.

I agree it would be wise for Grier to pursue Vilardi types. If it is indeed true that RFA's with arbitration cases that are only a year away from UFA have drastically reduced trade value like Meier and Zetterlund, then it stands to reason that we should be able to acquire them at reduced cost as well. Obviously Grier would have to do his due diligence one whether these guys will sign long-term before giving up value for them, but he should be exploring all avenues.

Vilardi, K. Miller, and Dobson jump out as the most obvious candidates for this.

Winnipeg has a lot of really interesting decisions to make this summer: Ehlers, Iafallo, Pionk, Samberg, and Vilardi all need new contracts and they have to consider that next year, Connor, Perfetti, and Lowry will need new contracts as well. If they are able to sign Ehlers and Pionk before July 1st, then they might be forced to trade Vilardi if he wants term.

Dobson has been discussed ad nauseam, but he would be a good fit if we aren't giving up core pieces. I would certainly be in favor of trading for him if the cost is a late 1st/early 2nd/prospect/roster player, which it should be considering his arbitration eligibility and down season.

I've been vocal that I don't love K. Miller as much as some do, but if we don't get Schaefer he might be someone to pursue considering NYR's cap situation and Grier's history with the Rangers.

 

[sampler]

Havelid belongs to the smurfs also.

Yes he does, but that was also before Grier really had a clear vision, I think. If I recall, he took over the GM job just before that draft, so I am not sure he really had a fully formed idea of what he was trying to create. He inherited DW's coach, players, everything...

The '23 draft was the first that was truly his, and while Smith was the clear pick on talent, Musty, Haltunnen, and Svoboda were the next three taken, all 6'2+, 200+. Then in '24, after celly was the no brainer, he took Dick and Cherny. Even Wetsch, Roberts, and Misskey are all 6'1+, 200+. Like I said, LSW is the lone exception.

Add in the trades, and hes looking to be big. Very very big. Or, more specifically: Tall.

TBH, I think its a genius strategy. While bigger doesnt always mean better, it usually actually does. Looking at the tallest teams in the NHL:

Boston Bruins	27.0 / 0.85	74.1 / 188.2	206.5 / 93.7
Vegas Golden Knights	29.6 / 0.93	74.1 / 188.2	205.3 / 93.1
Washington Capitals	29.2 / 0.92	74 / 188	202.2 / 91.7
New York Rangers	28.4 / 0.9	73.8 / 187.5	201.1 / 91.2
Dallas Stars	29.0 / 0.91	73.8 / 187.5	200.6 / 91
Winnipeg Jets	29.5 / 0.93	73.8 / 187.5	199.2 / 90.4
Buffalo Sabres	25.5 / 0.8	73.7 / 187.2	197.0 / 89.4
St. Louis Blues	29.2 / 0.92	73.7 / 187.2	206.1 / 93.5
Utah Hockey Club	27.6 / 0.87	73.6 / 186.9	196.8 / 89.3
Ottawa Senators	27.7 / 0.87	73.6 / 186.9	198.6 / 90.1
New Jersey Devils	28.8 / 0.91	73.6 / 186.9	200.4 / 90.9
Toronto Maple Leafs	29.8 / 0.94	73.6 / 186.9	204.9 / 92.9
Edmonton Oilers	30.5 / 0.96	73.6 / 186.9	200.4 / 90.9
New York Islanders	29.2 / 0.92	73.5 / 186.7	202.7 / 91.9
Florida Panthers	29.3 / 0.92	73.5 / 186.7	196.4 / 89.1
Los Angeles Kings	28.3 / 0.89	73.4 / 186.4	202.2 / 91.7

Top 16 teams: currently 10 in the PO's with another couple right on the bubble.

Of the bottom 16: Only 6 in the POs (Col, TBL, Car, Min, Cgy, CBJ). Also, SJ, CHI, NAS, SEA, PIT, PHI, ANA are all among the smallest half. In fact, only Buffalo is big yet still stinky.

Bigger, or more specifically, taller does generally mean better. I think it's very very wise to really heavily favor size, or specifically height, particularly in drafting when it's always a bit of a crapshoot.

 

[MackAttack71]

Yes he does, but that was also before Grier really had a clear vision, I think. If I recall, he took over the GM job just before that draft, so I am not sure he really had a fully formed idea of what he was trying to create. He inherited DW's coach, players, everything...

The '23 draft was the first that was truly his, and while Smith was the clear pick on talent, Musty, Haltunnen, and Svoboda were the next three taken, all 6'2+, 200+. Then in '24, after celly was the no brainer, he took Dick and Cherny. Even Wetsch, Roberts, and Misskey are all 6'1+, 200+. Like I said, LSW is the lone exception.

Add in the trades, and hes looking to be big. Very very big. Or, more specifically: Tall.

TBH, I think its a genius strategy. While bigger doesnt always mean better, it usually actually does. Looking at the tallest teams in the NHL:

Boston Bruins	27.0 / 0.85	74.1 / 188.2	206.5 / 93.7
Vegas Golden Knights	29.6 / 0.93	74.1 / 188.2	205.3 / 93.1
Washington Capitals	29.2 / 0.92	74 / 188	202.2 / 91.7
New York Rangers	28.4 / 0.9	73.8 / 187.5	201.1 / 91.2
Dallas Stars	29.0 / 0.91	73.8 / 187.5	200.6 / 91
Winnipeg Jets	29.5 / 0.93	73.8 / 187.5	199.2 / 90.4
Buffalo Sabres	25.5 / 0.8	73.7 / 187.2	197.0 / 89.4
St. Louis Blues	29.2 / 0.92	73.7 / 187.2	206.1 / 93.5
Utah Hockey Club	27.6 / 0.87	73.6 / 186.9	196.8 / 89.3
Ottawa Senators	27.7 / 0.87	73.6 / 186.9	198.6 / 90.1
New Jersey Devils	28.8 / 0.91	73.6 / 186.9	200.4 / 90.9
Toronto Maple Leafs	29.8 / 0.94	73.6 / 186.9	204.9 / 92.9
Edmonton Oilers	30.5 / 0.96	73.6 / 186.9	200.4 / 90.9
New York Islanders	29.2 / 0.92	73.5 / 186.7	202.7 / 91.9
Florida Panthers	29.3 / 0.92	73.5 / 186.7	196.4 / 89.1
Los Angeles Kings	28.3 / 0.89	73.4 / 186.4	202.2 / 91.7

Top 16 teams: currently 10 in the PO's with another couple right on the bubble.

Of the bottom 16: Only 6 in the POs (Col, TBL, Car, Min, Cgy, CBJ). Also, SJ, CHI, NAS, SEA, PIT, PHI, ANA are all among the smallest half. In fact, only Buffalo is big yet still stinky.

Bigger, or more specifically, taller does generally mean better. I think it's very very wise to really heavily favor size, or specifically height, particularly in drafting when it's always a bit of a crapshoot.

Yes you're right. But you mentioned Bystedt also. So i thought you forgot about Havelid cause it was the same draft.

 

[Grinner]

I agree it would be wise for Grier to pursue Vilardi types. If it is indeed true that RFA's with arbitration cases that are only a year away from UFA have drastically reduced trade value like Meier and Zetterlund, then it stands to reason that we should be able to acquire them at reduced cost as well. Obviously Grier would have to do his due diligence one whether these guys will sign long-term before giving up value for them, but he should be exploring all avenues.

Vilardi, K. Miller, and Dobson jump out as the most obvious candidates for this.

Winnipeg has a lot of really interesting decisions to make this summer: Ehlers, Iafallo, Pionk, Samberg, and Vilardi all need new contracts and they have to consider that next year, Connor, Perfetti, and Lowry will need new contracts as well. If they are able to sign Ehlers and Pionk before July 1st, then they might be forced to trade Vilardi if he wants term.

Dobson has been discussed ad nauseam, but he would be a good fit if we aren't giving up core pieces. I would certainly be in favor of trading for him if the cost is a late 1st/early 2nd/prospect/roster player, which it should be considering his arbitration eligibility and down season.

I've been vocal that I don't love K. Miller as much as some do, but if we don't get Schaefer he might be someone to pursue considering NYR's cap situation and Grier's history with the Rangers.

No to K. Miller under any circumstances

 

[Juxtaposer]

No to K. Miller under any circumstances

Why not? That seems pretty personal. Like I said, I wouldn't fork over premium assets for him but given his FA status and lack of contract I'm sure there's a reasonable deal out there.

 

[sampler]

BTW, the sharks are about a full inch shorter on average than the tallest teams and that is AFTER adding 6'5" giles and 6'6" desharnais while jettisoning 5'10 grandlund, 5'11 Zetterlund, and 6'0' kunin, and 6'1 walman (although sturm is 6'3").

In other words, at the midway point before these trades, we were likely battling for the smallest team in the entire NHL. Grier is spot on to get bigger....

I think this bodes well for:
1. eklund and cagnoni will be dealt within a year or two as centerpieces for a 6'2+ top 4D trade.
2. No contracts for Bordy and Gush. Sorry guys, bad DNA.
3. Another 3-4 6'2+ prospects will be drafted in the frist 3 rounds of the '25 draft. (or misa at 6'1).

Within two years, we are gunna be the biggest team in the league.

 

[Grinner]

Why not? That seems pretty personal. Like I said, I wouldn't fork over premium assets for him but given his FA status and lack of contract I'm sure there's a reasonable deal out there.

Personal? That's seems hardly possible
What attributes should I pine for?
He's got size and skating, buy isn't using them on the ice. No toolbox kind of player. He hardly seems a team leader. HIs lackadiacidicle play has Ranger fans pushing him out the door.
No need to infect our lockeroom

 

[Juxtaposer]

Personal? That's seems hardly possible
What attributes should I pine for?
He's got size and skating, buy isn't using them on the ice. No toolbox kind of player. He hardly seems a team leader. HIs lackadiacidicle play has Ranger fans pushing him out the door.
No need to infect our lockeroom

Dobson has the same issues. No issue with him though?

 

[Grinner]

Dobson has the same issues. No issue with him though?

I've not been supportive of trying to trade for him either.

 

[sampler]

Don't get hopes up too high for a top 4 D trade this summer. I don't think Grier is ready to trade futures for presents just yet. He just dealt his #1Dman, and #3 goal scorer, both easily signed (or signable) for next year on team friendly contracts (could have signed zetts cheap for 1-2 years if that's what he wanted to do). If grier was interested in really climbing quickly out of the basement, he would not have made those deals.

Ostapshuck is not gunna be a good 3C right off the bat at 21 or 22 years old. Like all the other prospects, he is a project and will take time. Grier is not going to jump the gun, and if he trades for a top 4D now before the team is ready to compete for the POs, he will be wasting futures for meaningless presents.

He will make that top 4D trade eventually, but I expect only AFTER he has seen what he has in musty, cherny, dick, ostapchuk, Askarov, Lund, Bystedt, and other prospects, and only when the time comes for those guys to be ready to truly contribute at a higher level.

I am as disappointed as the rest of us that we seem destined to be mired in the muck next year too. However, I think grier would be wise to stay the course at this point. If he had kept zetterlund and walman, I could imagine him adding a few big name UFAs in the summer, and then building a team around the core and the kids. However, he ditched them for futures, so he is sending a strong signal that he is not about to go for it next year. He even purposely avoided the word "aggressive" this summer to temper expectations. They'll be active, sure. They have like 40M-50M to spend, so they have to be active. But They can spend all that without touching the future, and can even flip all that cap space into more futures this summer and at next year's TDL.

I dont expect us to be dead last next year due to natual kid progression. But, I think bottom 5 remains likely, and trading big futures to go from bottom 5 to bottom 10 is dumb.

One more dry year... Then, in TDL '26, trade Wennberg and the UFA's signed this summer for more picks. Then, Summer '26, with 80M in cap space (pickles off the books, shortly followed by cooch), a pro year of BDE, Musty, Cherny, Askarov, Lund, and co under their belts, and Celly and Smith entering their third year, it will be time to go for Launch. Who knows who will be available a year from now, but I fully expect Grier will be hyper aggressive in trade and UFA in summer '26 using edmonton's pick along with several more by the next TDL along with the undersized prospects and Eklund to make a big splash (Dahlin sized).

'26 UFA class includes: McDavid, Eichel, Makar, Panarin, Kaprizov, Connor among others. unlikely many or even any of those guys will be available, but I could see the sharks take a huge swing at any of them that are possible if the timing is right.

 

[Juxtaposer]

I've not been supportive of trying to trade for him either.

Would you also say no to Dobson under any circumstances?

 

[Grinner]

Would you also say no to Dobson under any circumstances?

I wouldn't want to see the Sharks pay the price to secure his services. The value between the two isn't close.
Miller isn't close to the player Dobson has been.
Are Islander(HF) fans pushing him out the door as well

 

[Juxtaposer]

I wouldn't want to see the Sharks pay the price to secure his services. The value between the two isn't close.
Miller isn't close to the player Dobson has been.
Are Islander(HF) fans pushing him out the door as well

Yes, Isles fans are pushing him out the door. They're wondering if they shouldn't just re-sign Tony DeAngelo instead of committing a big contract to Dobson. Miller makes some comical defensive blunders at times but he is absolutely better than Dobson defensively on the whole. Dobson's value will be higher on the trade market purely from being a RHD, but if Dobson were a lefty or Miller were a righty, I'd value them just about the same.

 

[Grinner]

Yes, Isles fans are pushing him out the door. They're wondering if they shouldn't just re-sign Tony DeAngelo instead of committing a big contract to Dobson. Miller makes some comical defensive blunders at times but he is absolutely better than Dobson defensively on the whole. Dobson's value will be higher on the trade market purely from being a RHD, but if Dobson were a lefty or Miller were a righty, I'd value them just about the same.

Some defenders main value is due to their puck handling and scoring attributes.

NYR fans want Miller gone for h8s play on the ice. NYI fans( those who want to trade him) are those who value the two in the bush approach. Hf is too much about wanting to collect future assets. Much norepinephrine fun to pontificate with.

 

[Gecklund]

Call me crazy but right now if Schaefer and Misa are gone at the sharks pick, I think I’m taking Frondell.

 

[STL Shark]

Don't get hopes up too high for a top 4 D trade this summer. I don't think Grier is ready to trade futures for presents just yet. He just dealt his #1Dman, and #3 goal scorer, both easily signed (or signable) for next year on team friendly contracts (could have signed zetts cheap for 1-2 years if that's what he wanted to do). If grier was interested in really climbing quickly out of the basement, he would not have made those deals.

Ostapshuck is not gunna be a good 3C right off the bat at 21 or 22 years old. Like all the other prospects, he is a project and will take time. Grier is not going to jump the gun, and if he trades for a top 4D now before the team is ready to compete for the POs, he will be wasting futures for meaningless presents.

He will make that top 4D trade eventually, but I expect only AFTER he has seen what he has in musty, cherny, dick, ostapchuk, Askarov, Lund, Bystedt, and other prospects, and only when the time comes for those guys to be ready to truly contribute at a higher level.

I am as disappointed as the rest of us that we seem destined to be mired in the muck next year too. However, I think grier would be wise to stay the course at this point. If he had kept zetterlund and walman, I could imagine him adding a few big name UFAs in the summer, and then building a team around the core and the kids. However, he ditched them for futures, so he is sending a strong signal that he is not about to go for it next year. He even purposely avoided the word "aggressive" this summer to temper expectations. They'll be active, sure. They have like 40M-50M to spend, so they have to be active. But They can spend all that without touching the future, and can even flip all that cap space into more futures this summer and at next year's TDL.

I dont expect us to be dead last next year due to natual kid progression. But, I think bottom 5 remains likely, and trading big futures to go from bottom 5 to bottom 10 is dumb.

One more dry year... Then, in TDL '26, trade Wennberg and the UFA's signed this summer for more picks. Then, Summer '26, with 80M in cap space (pickles off the books, shortly followed by cooch), a pro year of BDE, Musty, Cherny, Askarov, Lund, and co under their belts, and Celly and Smith entering their third year, it will be time to go for Launch. Who knows who will be available a year from now, but I fully expect Grier will be hyper aggressive in trade and UFA in summer '26 using edmonton's pick along with several more by the next TDL along with the undersized prospects and Eklund to make a big splash (Dahlin sized).

'26 UFA class includes: McDavid, Eichel, Makar, Panarin, Kaprizov, Connor among others. unlikely many or even any of those guys will be available, but I could see the sharks take a huge swing at any of them that are possible if the timing is right.

Not reading the walls of text, but the first line seems ill informed. Grier has been transparent and honest all along as GM here. Why should we doubt his plan now when he just said on Friday that he plans to dip into some of the draft and prospect capital that has been acquired to go and add players to this group? It's not like he's been dishonest in the past and hasn't earned the right to be taken at his word...

 

[LilLeeroy]

Don't get hopes up too high for a top 4 D trade this summer. I don't think Grier is ready to trade futures for presents just yet. He just dealt his #1Dman, and #3 goal scorer, both easily signed (or signable) for next year on team friendly contracts (could have signed zetts cheap for 1-2 years if that's what he wanted to do). If grier was interested in really climbing quickly out of the basement, he would not have made those deals.

Ostapshuck is not gunna be a good 3C right off the bat at 21 or 22 years old. Like all the other prospects, he is a project and will take time. Grier is not going to jump the gun, and if he trades for a top 4D now before the team is ready to compete for the POs, he will be wasting futures for meaningless presents.

He will make that top 4D trade eventually, but I expect only AFTER he has seen what he has in musty, cherny, dick, ostapchuk, Askarov, Lund, Bystedt, and other prospects, and only when the time comes for those guys to be ready to truly contribute at a higher level.

I am as disappointed as the rest of us that we seem destined to be mired in the muck next year too. However, I think grier would be wise to stay the course at this point. If he had kept zetterlund and walman, I could imagine him adding a few big name UFAs in the summer, and then building a team around the core and the kids. However, he ditched them for futures, so he is sending a strong signal that he is not about to go for it next year. He even purposely avoided the word "aggressive" this summer to temper expectations. They'll be active, sure. They have like 40M-50M to spend, so they have to be active. But They can spend all that without touching the future, and can even flip all that cap space into more futures this summer and at next year's TDL.

I dont expect us to be dead last next year due to natual kid progression. But, I think bottom 5 remains likely, and trading big futures to go from bottom 5 to bottom 10 is dumb.

One more dry year... Then, in TDL '26, trade Wennberg and the UFA's signed this summer for more picks. Then, Summer '26, with 80M in cap space (pickles off the books, shortly followed by cooch), a pro year of BDE, Musty, Cherny, Askarov, Lund, and co under their belts, and Celly and Smith entering their third year, it will be time to go for Launch. Who knows who will be available a year from now, but I fully expect Grier will be hyper aggressive in trade and UFA in summer '26 using edmonton's pick along with several more by the next TDL along with the undersized prospects and Eklund to make a big splash (Dahlin sized).

'26 UFA class includes: McDavid, Eichel, Makar, Panarin, Kaprizov, Connor among others. unlikely many or even any of those guys will be available, but I could see the sharks take a huge swing at any of them that are possible if the timing is right.

Think they still have a decent chance for at least 64 points this year?

 

[weastern bias]

Think they still have a decent chance for at least 64 points this year?

You just don't understand betting odds

 

[timorous me]

HIs lackadiacidicle play has Ranger fans pushing him out the door.
No need to infect our lockeroom

That does sound like a contagious disease, so

Spoiler

especially with RFK Jr. running Health and Human Services,

I'd avoid at all costs.

Why not? That seems pretty personal. Like I said, I wouldn't fork over premium assets for him but given his FA status and lack of contract I'm sure there's a reasonable deal out there.

I could be wrong--maybe the angry fan sentiment will get to Dolan and Drury--but up to this point I feel like nobody values Miller like the Rangers do, so I'd be very surprised at a parting between the two at this point, no matter the weird contract situation upcoming.

 

[sampler]

Think they still have a decent chance for at least 64 points this year?

hahaha lost all my bets.... across the board :-(

Shows what I know ;-)

 

[sampler]

Not reading the walls of text, but the first line seems ill informed. Grier has been transparent and honest all along as GM here. Why should we doubt his plan now when he just said on Friday that he plans to dip into some of the draft and prospect capital that has been acquired to go and add players to this group? It's not like he's been dishonest in the past and hasn't earned the right to be taken at his word...

He didn't say when, nor did he say how big. He said they are not gunna be aggressive or rush the process. And he definitely did not set himself up to make a legit run next year.

I'm not saying that its impossible, Just I wouldn't count on it. I think he'll be active in UFA though, but mostly all short term deal.