2025 NHL Draft: Lose a ton for Porter Martone

[one2gamble]

I wonder if Carter Bear's lacerate achilles drops him to late first round where we could nab him with the Dallas pick?

You want to draft someone with a lacerated Achilles in the first round?

Did the rehab success rate of that injury change recently?

 

[TheBeard]

You want to draft someone with a lacerated Achilles in the first round?

Did the rehab success rate of that injury change recently?

I don't know how often lacerated achilles happen to have a set rate of recovery.

But yes I do. I would 100% draft him in the end of the first.

 

[coooldude]

Is Carter Bear any more than a Luke Kunin / Ty Dellandrea? Mid-first-round pick in a shallow draft with a lot of energy and physicality but not much of a body.

 

[TheBeard]

Is Carter Bear any more than a Luke Kunin / Ty Dellandrea? Mid-first-round pick in a shallow draft with a lot of energy and physicality but not much of a body.

He's much better offensively.

 

[GRANdSharks]

Is Carter Bear any more than a Luke Kunin / Ty Dellandrea? Mid-first-round pick in a shallow draft with a lot of energy and physicality but not much of a body.

id say he is significantly better offensively than either of them, though tbh I dont remember their draft year seasons as well as I do what they are now lol but Bear for me is a pretty safe top 6 guy. though i haven't looked into any injury yet.

 

[Cas]

id say he is significantly better offensively than either of them, though tbh I dont remember their draft year seasons as well as I do what they are now lol but Bear for me is a pretty safe top 6 guy. though i haven't looked into any injury yet.

Lots of people thought Kunin was a potential top six guy, too - a big winger with a nice scoring touch.

 

[coooldude]

id say he is significantly better offensively than either of them, though tbh I dont remember their draft year seasons as well as I do what they are now lol but Bear for me is a pretty safe top 6 guy. though i haven't looked into any injury yet.

That's why I asked the question

Draft year D+0
Carter Bear:
D-1 WHL, 67gp, 25g/32a = 57pts (0.85ppg)
D+0 WHL, 56gp, 40g/42a = 82pts (1.46ppg)

Luke Kunin:
D-1 USNTDP bullshit, USHL 20gp 14pts, USNTDP 61g 42p, WJC-18 7gp 6 goals
D+0 NCAA, 34gp, 19g/13a = 32p

Draft year profile:
A highly intelligent and offensively gifted forward. Has a keen eye for scoring opportunities and has shown flashes of elite-level finishing capability. Works hard and isn't afraid to battle for puck possession. Good hands and puck skills, and has a really accurate release on his shot. Needs to work on his explosiveness, staying in motion with the play, and strength behind his shot. All-in-all, a gifted offensive force with the potential to blossom into a highlight reel player. (Curtis Joe, EP 2015)

And Dellandrea had worse D+0 stats in the OHL but he still went #13OA.

My point here is that late first round picks are most likely to become that player that you hate on your team, not that player that you love on your team. Therefore not worth bending over backwards or overpaying to get them.

 

[Juxtaposer]

I watched Kunin with the NTDP and hated him. Didn't watch him play with Wisconsin but to this day I still have no idea how he produced so well there.

I watched a little of Dellandrea in his draft year in Flint. He got over-drafted because he was a center in a weak draft but also because this was the height of the Flint water crisis and Ty got (deservedly) a lot of credit for sticking it out there and I think being a good community member as well, and went much higher than was expected.

Bear is more talented and more of a dawg than both IMHO.

 

[coooldude]

I watched Kunin with the NTDP and hated him. Didn't watch him play with Wisconsin but to this day I still have no idea how he produced so well there.

I watched a little of Dellandrea in his draft year in Flint. He got over-drafted because he was a center in a weak draft but also because this was the height of the Flint water crisis and Ty got (deservedly) a lot of credit for sticking it out there and I think being a good community member as well, and went much higher than was expected.

Bear is more talented and more of a dawg than both IMHO.

My point still stands -- all of these guys, Jett Luchanko, MBN, etc. are far more likely to be a bottom of lineup plug than they are to hit and become a beloved top 6 guy. Therefore I try not to get too enamored with any of them, especially when Bear is 6'0" 176 right now.

Chernyshov (and Solberg <3) were my loves last year after the top 12-ish. I'm not sure Bear screams "impact player on cup winner," where Cherny and Solberg do have that potential, and there are a few guys in this year's top 15 that do but very few after that.

All to say -- pretty ambivalent what happens with the DAL and 2nd round picks, whether used or traded up, traded out, UNLESS your pipe dream happens and we pick up a draft faller like Ek or Hensler or Mrtka or J. Smith or Aitcheson, and even then, those D men would probably be not quite the prospect that Dickinson is.

 

[JoeThorntonsRooster]

That's why I asked the question

Draft year D+0
Carter Bear:
D-1 WHL, 67gp, 25g/32a = 57pts (0.85ppg)
D+0 WHL, 56gp, 40g/42a = 82pts (1.46ppg)

Luke Kunin:
D-1 USNTDP bullshit, USHL 20gp 14pts, USNTDP 61g 42p, WJC-18 7gp 6 goals
D+0 NCAA, 34gp, 19g/13a = 32p

Draft year profile:
A highly intelligent and offensively gifted forward. Has a keen eye for scoring opportunities and has shown flashes of elite-level finishing capability. Works hard and isn't afraid to battle for puck possession. Good hands and puck skills, and has a really accurate release on his shot. Needs to work on his explosiveness, staying in motion with the play, and strength behind his shot. All-in-all, a gifted offensive force with the potential to blossom into a highlight reel player. (Curtis Joe, EP 2015)

And Dellandrea had worse D+0 stats in the OHL but he still went #13OA.

My point here is that late first round picks are most likely to become that player that you hate on your team, not that player that you love on your team. Therefore not worth bending over backwards or overpaying to get them.

Dellandrea was under a point per game in the OHL in his draft year. Based on numbers, that was always a very stupid pick in the top 15.

Kunin was closer to a point per game in his draft year in the NCAA than Dellandrea was in the OHL; he basically produced at the same rate as James Hagens is currently producing at. Kunin’s scoring more or less justified the selection, he just flopped because he has no hockey sense. Sometimes that happens.

I don’t really get the point of bringing up either of these guys in this case. Bear’s production is encouraging and is similar to that of many players who turned out great. It’s not also insane production, and you can find many players with similar production who flopped.

 

[coooldude]

Dellandrea was under a point per game in the OHL in his draft year. Based on numbers, that was always a very stupid pick in the top 15.

Kunin was closer to a point per game in his draft year in the NCAA than Dellandrea was in the OHL; he basically produced at the same rate as James Hagens is currently producing at. Kunin’s scoring more or less justified the selection, he just flopped because he has no hockey sense. Sometimes that happens.

I don’t really get the point of bringing up either of these guys in this case. Bear’s production is encouraging and is similar to that of many players who turned out great. It’s not also insane production, and you can find many players with similar production who flopped.

Sure, see my post just above for the point. The point is, I don't think Carter Bear is a huge get in the mid to late first and I'm ambivalent about what we do with that pick unless it's one of a very short list of D men or Eklund.

 

[Juxtaposer]

My point still stands -- all of these guys, Jett Luchanko, MBN, etc. are far more likely to be a bottom of lineup plug than they are to hit and become a beloved top 6 guy. Therefore I try not to get too enamored with any of them, especially when Bear is 6'0" 176 right now.

Chernyshov (and Solberg <3) were my loves last year after the top 12-ish. I'm not sure Bear screams "impact player on cup winner," where Cherny and Solberg do have that potential, and there are a few guys in this year's top 15 that do but very few after that.

All to say -- pretty ambivalent what happens with the DAL and 2nd round picks, whether used or traded up, traded out, UNLESS your pipe dream happens and we pick up a draft faller like Ek or Hensler or Mrtka or J. Smith or Aitcheson, and even then, those D men would probably be not quite the prospect that Dickinson is.

I think we'll have to disagree here, because I believe there is value in the Sharks drafting middle-six "got that dawg in him" average sized wingers because of what we already have in our system.

Who is in the system right now? Average-sized elite talents (Celebrini, Smith) and hulking but low-pace wingers (Chernyshov, Musty, Halttunen, Lund). Eklund's got a bit of dawg in him, and obviously Celebrini does too, but the rest of those guys are not forechecking high-energy puck retrieval types. Bear (and Young Eklund) represent guys who hunt down pucks and get them to guys like Smith and Musty so they can go to work in the offensive zone. We don't have that type of player in the system right now, and players who play like that AND have top-6 skill (aka not Luke Kunin) are not super easy to acquire without overpayment (either in trade assets or contract value).

 

[JoeThorntonsRooster]

Sure, see my post just above for the point. The point is, I don't think Carter Bear is a huge get in the mid to late first and I'm ambivalent about what we do with that pick unless it's one of a very short list of D men or Eklund.

Maybe not - I don’t know enough about Bear to say - but I don’t think it’s wise to write him off based on junior scoring and then just cite those two examples. You could just as easily cite Timo Meier, who scored at the same exact pace (literally, same exact goal/assist/point pace) as Bear is currently scoring at, only Meier did so in the inferior QMJHL.

Bear’s junior scoring rates really are in an area where many become bottom-6 plugs, some become borderline stars, a few bust entirely, and a few become superstars. As somebody who is frequently telling people not to get their hopes up about guys who haven’t scored well in junior, that really isn’t a concern for Bear.

 

[GRANdSharks]

Lots of people thought Kunin was a potential top six guy, too - a big winger with a nice scoring touch.

I mean yeah, obviously Carter bear could flop but from what I watched i feel confident he will become a good player you never know what will happen with development or injury's tho.

I dont really see the kunin comp when I watch him

 

[Juxtaposer]

I mean yeah, obviously Carter bear could flop but from what I watched i feel confident he will become a good player you never know what will happen with development or injury's tho.

I dont really see the kunin comp when I watch him

The best Carter Bear comp I see is Seth Jarvis.

 

[TheBeard]

I still think he goes in the top 15 anyways.

 

[GRANdSharks]

The best Carter Bear comp I see is Seth Jarvis.

If everything goes right I can very much see this as a ceiling for him.

 

[Juxtaposer]

If everything goes right I can very much see this as a ceiling for him.

Definitely don't think it's likely Bear reaches the level Jarvis has, but that's the type of player he is, a grinder with top-6 talent.