I think if you had real #1,2,3,4 defenders, kept blackwood, with the way the division is, they could probably sneak in but that means replacing everyone on the backend with high quality people. They arent getting boat raced every game and the defense is horribad. I dont think people really understand what a stable back end does to the forwards efficiencies.
You would likely break out the broom in round 1 though.
So, say you replaced Thrun with Harley and Rutta with Bouchard (resisted the urge to go with a Norris candidate). New defense is Bouchard-Harley-Walman-Ferraro-Liljigren-Ceci?
Top 9 of Celebrini, Granlund, Eklund, Tofolli, Zetts, Wennberg, Goody, Kunin, and Koistin/Smith?
Blackwood and Askarov?
I’d say that’s a bubble team, maybe grab the kings/utah/cgy slot, but don’t see it being better than Colorado, Dallas, Edmonton, or Vancouver. We’d be hoping to bring in an upgrade or two in the top 9 at the deadline. Good (unproven) goalies, good defense, solid centers, poor wingers.
Things get so much easier with an elite dman. Trying to stitch together a bunch of 3/4/5s like Walman, Ferraro, Ceci, Liljigren into an all situations group is freaking hard. Getting complimentary 3/4 guys isn’t easy (especially once cap space and assets dwindle), but it’s not a huge deal, particularly if you’re not looking for a guy to carry the load offensively. In addition, if you have a legit #1 you don’t absolutely have to have a legit #2.
If we get a top 4 pick, even Schaefer, we’re still a couple pieces away. However with 1C/D/G and Smith, Dickinson you’ve got the five hardest pieces to acquire, and the rest can be got through trades. That being said, Celebrini is the only one who has a viable chance to be top half (16) at his position (1C) in the league next year. The same won’t be true for Askarov, Smith (2C) Eklund (1LW), or Schaefer (who almost certainly won’t be in the NHL). If Grier got the team out of the bottom 10 next year, I’d be exceedingly impressed.
Chicago, Anaheim, Montreal and Buffalo (somehow) will likely still suck next year. Ottawa likely won’t have a first. Philly, CBJ, Pitt, Calgary may suck as well. If Grier can build a team beat out those teams to claim 10th I’d be rather impressed.
The following year, I’d be disappointed if they ended up bottom 10 again.