2025 NHL Draft: Lose a ton for Porter Martone

[jMoneyBrah]

I know that this draft is viewed as pretty weak after the top 4; but how does that top 4 stack up to Celebrini or Bedard’s drafts? Who among this year’s top 4 would make the top five in the past two drafts?

Forgive me if this has already been discussed at some point.

 

[YUPPY 2 7 10 11]

I know that this draft is viewed as pretty weak after the top 4; but how does that top 4 stack up to Celebrini or Bedard’s drafts? Who among this year’s top 4 would make the top five in the past two drafts?

Forgive me if this has already been discussed at some point.

Translation factors are used to create high-level estimates of how a player's scoring rate will change as they come to the NHL from other leagues.

For example:
2023 Draft
1. Conor Bedard got a score of NHLe. 62
2 Leo Carlsson got a score of NHLe. 28
3. Adam Fantilli got a score of NHLe. 49
4. Will Smith got a score of NHLe. 56

2024 Draft
1. Macklin Celebrini got a score of NHLe. 54
2 Artyom Levshunov got a score of NHLe. 25
3 Beckett Sennecke got a score of NHLe. 46
4 Cayden Lindstrom got a score of NHLe. 36

2025 Draft: mock draft order
1. Porter Martone got a score of NHLe. 55.0
2. James Hagens got a score of NHLe. 40.3
3. Mathew Schaefer got a score of NHLe. 34.4
4. Michael Misa got a score of NHLe. 51.3



NHLes provide a guideline for how a player new to the NHL can expect to produce in their first season in the NHL. But also, when applying the overall translations from each league to each player, season over season, they provide a clean way to standardize player scoring and rank them.

NHLe Calculator - Frozen Tools

NHL Equivalency calculator from dobberhockey.com

frozenpool.dobbersports.com

 

[vortexy]

I know that this draft is viewed as pretty weak after the top 4; but how does that top 4 stack up to Celebrini or Bedard’s drafts? Who among this year’s top 4 would make the top five in the past two drafts?

Forgive me if this has already been discussed at some point.

For Celebrini's draft class, Celebrini was the gem and kind of the only surefire stud in the class, everyone else had a question mark/weakness beside their name that could stop them from becoming elite in the NHL. For this current top 4 I personally would take Schaefer/Hagens/Misa over Levshunov, Senneke and Lidstrom but none of them over Celebrini. Martone is more difficult for me to decide but I probably would still take him over Senneke and Lidstrom (did not like his injury+risk) maybe not Levshunov. Demidov was my #2 ranked prospect behind Celebrini but he was picked #5 and you can have a real debate with him vs all 4 of this years top 4, I find he has greater offensive talent than all of them but he is a winger in the end and position matters.

The Bedard draft top 4 was a lot more stacked than Celebrini's (I still would take Celebrini over all of them call me crazy). We have some more info on this class as a lot of the top 4 has played a full season and a half now in the NHL. I personally would say Bedard > any of this years top 4, but after that it is totally up for debate. I'm higher on Carlsson and lower on Fantilli so I would probably put Schaefer above Carlsson and Hagens/Misa equal or a bit lower than Carlsson but above Fantilli (I honestly am not sure he is a C as I question his hockey IQ) and Smith. Martone I would put behind Smith as I value the Center more. Michkov was not picked in the top 4 but similar to Demidov you can easily debate he is #2 but again he is a winger and position matters.

Sorry for the long winded post I hope it all made sense I kind of rambled on but to answer the last question I would probably have the top 5 as Celebrini/Bedard/Schaefer/Carlsson/Hagens (Misa). You can easily make the argument and put Michkov or Demidov somewhere in the top 5 but since they weren't picked in the top 4 of their draft classes I'll leave them out.

 

[The Nemesis]

I know that this draft is viewed as pretty weak after the top 4; but how does that top 4 stack up to Celebrini or Bedard’s drafts? Who among this year’s top 4 would make the top five in the past two drafts?

Forgive me if this has already been discussed at some point.

My extremely amateur take, disclaiming that within a tier/group I would probably change the order from day to day or hour to hour


Bedard ('23 1st)
Celebrini ('24 1st)

Hagens ('25)
Fanitilli ('23 3rd)
Schaefer ('25)
Carlsson ('23 2nd)

Levshunov ('24 2nd)
Smith ('23 4th)
Misa ('25)

Martone ('25)
Sennecke ('24 3rd)
Lindstrom ('24 4th)

I originally had a space between Bedard and Celebrini, but I think the gap is smaller than it has always been portrayed as being. Bedard may be a "generational" scorer, but Celebrini is no slouch and the rounded nature of his game is incredibly valuable.

 

[coooldude]

My extremely amateur take, disclaiming that within a tier/group I would probably change the order from day to day or hour to hour


Bedard ('23 1st)
Celebrini ('24 1st)

Hagens ('25)
Fanitilli ('23 3rd)
Schaefer ('25)
Carlsson ('23 2nd)

Levshunov ('24 2nd)
Smith ('23 4th)
Misa ('25)

Martone ('25)
Sennecke ('24 3rd)
Lindstrom ('24 4th)

I originally had a space between Bedard and Celebrini, but I think the gap is smaller than it has always been portrayed as being. Bedard may be a "generational" scorer, but Celebrini is no slouch and the rounded nature of his game is incredibly valuable.

Great list, Would just add Demidov and Michkov to the second or third tiers based on taste... And of course the Michkov Mafia would have him in tier 1 pre draft and definitely now. I probably would have had him in tier 1 pre draft.

 

[Hodge]

What makes Hagens better than Smith? He's smaller and on pace for a less productive freshman season.

 

[matt trick]

What makes Hagens better than Smith? He's smaller and on pace for a less productive freshman season.

Faster, better defensively, marginally better international performance (projects to significantly outperform Smith’s WJC albeit with same line mates and PPQB who are an all a year older). Also, I don’t know this to be true, but BC fans claim their SOS has been really tough so far. Perhaps his collegiate production will pick up in the second half.

At most, he’s an inch shorter and by the combine he could prove to be the same height, though he is a bit lighter (again that may change by the combine).

 

[Hodge]

Faster, better defensively, marginally better international performance (projects to significantly outperform Smith’s WJC albeit with same line mates and PPQB who are an all a year older). Also, I don’t know this to be true, but BC fans claim their SOS has been really tough so far. Perhaps his collegiate production will pick up in the second half.

At most, he’s an inch shorter and by the combine he could prove to be the same height, though he is a bit lighter (again that may change by the combine).

I wouldn't put any stock into their WJC production. Smith's line was playing behind McGroarty, Gauthier, etc. last year as you mentioned.

Hagens strikes me as Logan Cooley 2.0 and I'm not sure I would take Cooley over Smith long term. RH vs. LH shot also adds to Smith's value.

If we draft Hagens then one of Smith or Eklund has to go for a defenseman or bigger forward.

 

[JotAlan]

My extremely amateur take, disclaiming that within a tier/group I would probably change the order from day to day or hour to hour
Bedard ('23 1st)
Celebrini ('24 1st)

Hagens ('25)
Fanitilli ('23 3rd)
Schaefer ('25)
Carlsson ('23 2nd)

Levshunov ('24 2nd)
Smith ('23 4th)
Misa ('25)

Martone ('25)
Sennecke ('24 3rd)
Lindstrom ('24 4th)




I originally had a space between Bedard and Celebrini, but I think the gap is smaller than it has always been portrayed as being. Bedard may be a "generational" scorer, but Celebrini is no slouch and the rounded nature of his game is incredibly valuable.

Bedard ('23 1st)
Celebrini ('24 1st)

Hagens ('25)

Schaefer ('25)
Carlsson ('23 2nd)

Misa ('25)
Smith ('23 4th)
Fantilli ('23 3rd)

Martone ('25)
Sennecke ('24 3rd)
Levshunov ('24 2nd)
Lindstrom ('24 4th)

 

[Juxtaposer]

Very good EP article came out today where ten NHL scouts and execs were polled on who they would take 1st overall, and everything is coming up Matt Schaefer.

7 of them said Schaefer outright, 2 said Hagens, and 1 was undecided between Schaefer, Hagens, and Misa (suggested they had "equal chance" right now). However, looking deeper, one of the Hagens guys basically said that Schaefer didn't have enough of a track record for him to feel comfortable putting him at #1, and the other doesn't believe in Schaefer's upside, but also doesn't seem to actually like Hagens that much either (suggested there is no actually elite players in this draft) and only kept him there to try and avoid "nitpicking" him since he's been in the spotlight for so long. One Schaefer guy mentioned Martone in a way that felt like he was saying Martone was his #2.

Bottom line is that Schaefer seems to have the inside track going into 2025. It's interesting that multiple scouts suggested that Hagens' upside was a good 2C. The opinions on Schaefer ranged from "top pair guy" to "#1D" to "franchise D" to "future Norris winner" to "lefty Drew Doughty" to "heir apparent to Hughes/Makar [not in terms of style but impact]".

Hagens/Misa/Martone are going to have to blow up in the second half to have a chance.

 

[wickedwitch]

Faster, better defensively, marginally better international performance (projects to significantly outperform Smith’s WJC albeit with same line mates and PPQB who are an all a year older). Also, I don’t know this to be true, but BC fans claim their SOS has been really tough so far. Perhaps his collegiate production will pick up in the second half.

The SoS metric I've referenced: 2024‑25 CHN Power Ratings (KRACH)

 

[gaucholoco3]

It’s impossible to compare Hagens and Smith’s world juniors the past two years. Smith was given 4th line minutes and Hagens is being given 1st line minutes.

Smith would have put up a lot more points if he was given the minutes that Hagens is getting.

 

[Cas]

I think comparing the relative performance of two vaguely similar players against each other in different short samples across different years is probably not a meaningful indicator of anything.

 

[matt trick]

Very good EP article came out today where ten NHL scouts and execs were polled on who they would take 1st overall, and everything is coming up Matt Schaefer.

7 of them said Schaefer outright, 2 said Hagens, and 1 was undecided between Schaefer, Hagens, and Misa (suggested they had "equal chance" right now). However, looking deeper, one of the Hagens guys basically said that Schaefer didn't have enough of a track record for him to feel comfortable putting him at #1, and the other doesn't believe in Schaefer's upside, but also doesn't seem to actually like Hagens that much either (suggested there is no actually elite players in this draft) and only kept him there to try and avoid "nitpicking" him since he's been in the spotlight for so long. One Schaefer guy mentioned Martone in a way that felt like he was saying Martone was his #2.

Bottom line is that Schaefer seems to have the inside track going into 2025. It's interesting that multiple scouts suggested that Hagens' upside was a good 2C. The opinions on Schaefer ranged from "top pair guy" to "#1D" to "franchise D" to "future Norris winner" to "lefty Drew Doughty" to "heir apparent to Hughes/Makar [not in terms of style but impact]".

Hagens/Misa/Martone are going to have to blow up in the second half to have a chance.

This year is going to put team need to the test.

Chicago, Detroit, and Buffalo are desperate for a second elite forward and each have 2-3 guys who may project as top pairing D. However, I’d rank Schaefer over all but Dahlin and Seider, and only Dahlin on draft day. Nashville seems likely go C since they’ve never had one, but if they project Hagens/Misa as 2C, I’m sure they’d love to get their hands on the premier D prospect. At this point, Montreal, Anaheim, and Philly seem like they’d lean Schaefer. Safest option seems to be win or maintain the lottery!

 

[Forlan]

I wouldn't put any stock into their WJC production. Smith's line was playing behind McGroarty, Gauthier, etc. last year as you mentioned.

Hagens strikes me as Logan Cooley 2.0 and I'm not sure I would take Cooley over Smith long term. RH vs. LH shot also adds to Smith's value.

If we draft Hagens then one of Smith or Eklund has to go for a defenseman or bigger forward.

Logan Cooley > Will Smith even in the long run. Logan's skating, mobility, and passing are better, imho

 

[Juxtaposer]

This year is going to put team need to the test.

Chicago, Detroit, and Buffalo are desperate for a second elite forward and each have 2-3 guys who may project as top pairing D. However, I’d rank Schaefer over all but Dahlin and Seider, and only Dahlin on draft day. Nashville seems likely go C since they’ve never had one, but if they project Hagens/Misa as 2C, I’m sure they’d love to get their hands on the premier D prospect. At this point, Montreal, Anaheim, and Philly seem like they’d lean Schaefer. Safest option seems to be win or maintain the lottery!

Seriously, it's going to be fascinating.

As you said, most of the teams in the lottery range desperately need forwards and don't really need D.

Chicago has Vlasic, Levshunov, and Korchinski, and nothing at forward past Bedard.

Buffalo has Dahlin, Power, and Byram down the left side, taking Schaefer would be malpractice.

Detroit has Seider, Edvinsson, and Sandin-Pellika and no one with real upside up front (all their forward prospects are low-upside).

Nashville needs everything, but having never had a real #1C in their entire franchise existence, other than like, one year of Ryan Johansen, I would have to think the draw of taking one 1st would be too strong to resist.

Anaheim would probably take Schaefer, as BPA. NYR is a wrench I wasn't expecting; I'd take Hagens if I were them, but they also need everything.

 

[vortexy]

Very good EP article came out today where ten NHL scouts and execs were polled on who they would take 1st overall, and everything is coming up Matt Schaefer.

7 of them said Schaefer outright, 2 said Hagens, and 1 was undecided between Schaefer, Hagens, and Misa (suggested they had "equal chance" right now). However, looking deeper, one of the Hagens guys basically said that Schaefer didn't have enough of a track record for him to feel comfortable putting him at #1, and the other doesn't believe in Schaefer's upside, but also doesn't seem to actually like Hagens that much either (suggested there is no actually elite players in this draft) and only kept him there to try and avoid "nitpicking" him since he's been in the spotlight for so long. One Schaefer guy mentioned Martone in a way that felt like he was saying Martone was his #2.

Bottom line is that Schaefer seems to have the inside track going into 2025. It's interesting that multiple scouts suggested that Hagens' upside was a good 2C. The opinions on Schaefer ranged from "top pair guy" to "#1D" to "franchise D" to "future Norris winner" to "lefty Drew Doughty" to "heir apparent to Hughes/Makar [not in terms of style but impact]".

Hagens/Misa/Martone are going to have to blow up in the second half to have a chance.

Wow real good info here. Do you know if these interviews were done before or after the injury to Schaefer and if before, do you think the injury drops Schaefer to #2 in the eyes of executives?

 

[matt trick]

Seriously, it's going to be fascinating.

As you said, most of the teams in the lottery range desperately need forwards and don't really need D.

Chicago has Vlasic, Levshunov, and Korchinski, and nothing at forward past Bedard.

Buffalo has Dahlin, Power, and Byram down the left side, taking Schaefer would be malpractice.

Detroit has Seider, Edvinsson, and Sandin-Pellika and no one with real upside up front (all their forward prospects are low-upside).

Nashville needs everything, but having never had a real #1C in their entire franchise existence, other than like, one year of Ryan Johansen, I would have to think the draw of taking one 1st would be too strong to resist.

Anaheim would probably take Schaefer, as BPA. NYR is a wrench I wasn't expecting; I'd take Hagens if I were them, but they also need everything.

Also Hagens grew up an Islanders fan. Having watched Tavares walk, wouldn’t it be nice to enjoy a 1st overall who grew up wearing your team’s pajamas rather than a team in Ontario. Say, where are the other top prospects from?

Good point on the Rags. When your team is bad you kind of look around the league and think okay team A, B, C (let’s call them Anaheim, Buffalo, and Chicago!) also suck, what would they do? But no matter how much they suck, there’s a chance someone else (NJ last year, NY this year) ends up in the lottery that you never expected. Thank God this year isn’t the Celebrini draft. I know you say it often, but it makes this draft so much more chill (even though we mostly all want Schaefer).

The peak of this draft is not as good, but I think all 4 would have been consensus top 5 picks last year though Demidov and Levshunov would have had arguments. Though I will say, the Ducks’ Sennecke pick looks good too.

 

[Shark Finn]

Anaheim would probably take Schaefer, as BPA.

Agreed on all accounts with this post, the past few days I've been thinking about the current needs of the bottom teams. However, who's to say a team will pick for need anyway? However, these guys can f*ck off already and start picking around 10th overall. Seriously.

 

[Juxtaposer]

Wow real good info here. Do you know if these interviews were done before or after the injury to Schaefer and if before, do you think the injury drops Schaefer to #2 in the eyes of executives?

It seems like after. One of the two Hagens voters mentioned Schaefer's injury as a negative (the one that chose Hagens for his track record).

Agreed on all accounts with this post, the past few days I've been thinking about the current needs of the bottom teams. However, who's to say a team will pick for need anyway? However, these guys can f*ck off already and start picking around 10th overall. Seriously.

If Anaheim gets a top-4 pick this year, I'll be mad. They already have Carlsson, McTavish, Sennecke, Gauthier, Zegras, and Mintyukov. It's just greedy at this point.

 

[timorous me]

Very good EP article came out today where ten NHL scouts and execs were polled on who they would take 1st overall, and everything is coming up Matt Schaefer.

7 of them said Schaefer outright, 2 said Hagens, and 1 was undecided between Schaefer, Hagens, and Misa (suggested they had "equal chance" right now). However, looking deeper, one of the Hagens guys basically said that Schaefer didn't have enough of a track record for him to feel comfortable putting him at #1, and the other doesn't believe in Schaefer's upside, but also doesn't seem to actually like Hagens that much either (suggested there is no actually elite players in this draft) and only kept him there to try and avoid "nitpicking" him since he's been in the spotlight for so long. One Schaefer guy mentioned Martone in a way that felt like he was saying Martone was his #2.

Bottom line is that Schaefer seems to have the inside track going into 2025. It's interesting that multiple scouts suggested that Hagens' upside was a good 2C. The opinions on Schaefer ranged from "top pair guy" to "#1D" to "franchise D" to "future Norris winner" to "lefty Drew Doughty" to "heir apparent to Hughes/Makar [not in terms of style but impact]".

Hagens/Misa/Martone are going to have to blow up in the second half to have a chance.

It's going to be fascinating to see how the psychology of things plays out now with Schaefer out long-term. On one hand, it may be that in the minds of these scouts and execs that he just stays on this pedestal of sorts since not playing means he can't get worse in their minds.

On the other hand, it wouldn't be the first time in any sport/field where not seeing the guy means the excitement dies down and, if any of the other top guys gets on a roll and generates enthusiasm, they could make that top pick a real contest because in not seeing Schaefer, he hasn't been able to keep up his momentum and, well, doesn't get forgotten, per se, but allows that door to be opened in the minds of these people.

The question now is if any of these other three guys has it in them to actually make that scenario a possibility.

 

[Juxtaposer]

It's going to be fascinating to see how the psychology of things plays out now with Schaefer out long-term. On one hand, it may be that in the minds of these scouts and execs that he just stays on this pedestal of sorts since not playing means he can't get worse in their minds.

On the other hand, it wouldn't be the first time in any sport/field where not seeing the guy means the excitement dies down and, if any of the other top guys gets on a roll and generates enthusiasm, they could make that top pick a real contest because in not seeing Schaefer, he hasn't been able to keep up his momentum and, well, doesn't get forgotten, per se, but allows that door to be opened in the minds of these people.

The question now is if any of these other three guys has it in them to actually make that scenario a possibility.

The good thing for Schaefer is that he probably does come back before the OHL playoffs and has the chance to prove that the injury didn't affect his play.

The other guys could make up some ground while he's injured, but they would have to surpass what they've already done to do so. Realistically, I think Hagens is the only guy who can pass him.

 

[coooldude]

Nashville needs everything, but having never had a real #1C in their entire franchise existence, other than like, one year of Ryan Johansen, I would have to think the draw of taking one 1st would be too strong to resist.

Plus they have Molendyk in the pipeline... I think they take Hagens or Misa. As Trotz has also said, "draft someone who puts butts in seats" so the Fwd temptation I agree would likely be too strong... But we'll see.

We still need a player like Misa/Hagens/Martone so while we all want Matt, we can be happy to walk away with our best-or-tied-for-best-prospect (if we still consider Smith a prospect) no matter where we pick (if top4).

If we miraculously pick 5, hunch is we go Jackson Smith and basically have a Schaefer Lite. Or Desnoyers and that's a better Bystedt.

 

[YUPPY 2 7 10 11]

Eklund 2.0? Victor Eklund and William Eklund on the same line would indeed resemble something like the Seldin brothers, though, they aren't twins. The Eklund brothers have a similar dynamic in terms of their playing styles, where they complement each other on the ice, much like the Seldin brothers.

 

[Patty Ice]

If it's supposed to be a parody, we may need to send the @Hogde account owner to remedial classes at Yankovic University because the jokes feel like they're not landing.

I reported the account. It's very sad that it's been allowed to continue, let alone exist in the first place.